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Recession

3.5 years to recover 2008 recessionIt took about 3.5 years, from the last top in late 2007, to cross all relevant moving averages in early 2011, for us to confirm all the market bottoms were in. During that time, more than half of the market was lost in its last bottom compared to its last top. Expect same or worse in this 2022 recession, as more things will pop in this everything bubble. The current Triple EMA (TEMA) has only dipped about the same as during the pandemic, so we have only just begun the slow drop. Take care & keep looking for sectors, equities & ETNs that perform well in recessions, including the upcoming Bitcoin (BTC) Short ETF : BITI
AMEX:SPYShort
by roelds
BTCUSD Daily TA Cautiously BearishBTCUSD Daily cautiously bearish. Recommended ratio: 15% BTC, 85% Cash. *Equity and crypto markets are bouncing today off of speculation that the Fed may be able to ring in inflation without a recession; this is highly speculative and is happening at a critical support level for BTC ($20k) which is important for bulls to defend in order to avoid mass liquidations from large institutionally levered players like Microstrategy (this would cause an even larger downward cascade in PA).* Price is currently hovering at $20500 as bulls are attempting to prevent it from breaking $20k to formally test $19417 support. Volume is currently Moderate and is on track to favor buyers in today's session if it can close in the green; this would be bullish going into the weekend. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $28k, this margin is mildly bullish. RSI is currently trending up slight at 22 after being rejected by the uptrend line from 01/22/22 (as resistance) at 25.60 resistance; if it can stay above 25.60 for two consecutive sessions it will help confirm that the uptrend line from 01/22/22 is still intact. Stochastic remains bullish (barely) for a second consecutive session as it is trending up slightly at 5 after retesting max bottom. MACD remains bearish and is currently testing -2497 minor support with no signs of trough formation; the next support is the ATL at -5089. ADX is currently trending up at 36 as Price continues to fall, this is bearish. If Price is able to bounce here then it will likely test $24180 minor resistance. However, if Price continues to break down here, it will likely formally test $19417 support for the first time since breaking out above it in December 2020. Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes above) $24180.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by dailytaguy
2
2022 - Not the Recession We Want, but the Recession We NeedIn response to the Federal Reserve increasing interest rates yet again, the markets - both in stocks and crypto (and housing soon to come) - have been dropping pretty hard lately. For crypto investors out there: this is the sound of mainstream money from the general public leaving the space - they came for the party, then left after the party was over. The craze that we saw in 20’-21’ was really the result of NFT projects targeting people - largely cooped up indoors due to the pandemic - with a hype-based marketing strategy that seemingly resonated very strongly. Out of all the NFT projects that could have reached #1, it was the Bored Apes Yacht Club: it doesn’t take an art expert (although I do like to fancy myself as one at times) to see what BAYC’s success “means” - it’s obviously targeted at people who’s primary ethos is boredom…and exclusivity. In a way, BAYC is the perfect sign of the times - people bored of the lockdown, the rise of digital marketing and remote work, our reliance on artificial scarcity to determine “value”, and Web2 marketing/hype and investing practices all rolled into one. There’s a reason why even the Ethereum team (most visible Vitalik) renounced BAYC as something that ETH “wasn’t intended” to do. Adjective-Animal JPGs basically missed the point of why Web3 was created from the very beginning. Now that the Feds are tightening up their money supply (finally, after having printed endless amounts of it during the last few years) the “casino” market is about to come to an end. But just because the market is in a downturn doesn’t automatically mean that everything will be bad…there are lots of opportunities still there; they just look different from what we’re used to seeing up until now. For some of us out there, we’ve been waiting for this moment for a very long time. If you might have been thinking about changing or trying new things out in your life, now is probably the best time to do it because in a few months the world as we know it will probably get flipped on its head and most things will become unrecognizable anyway. During recessions people’s priorities tend to shift away from speculative assets and into savings; short-term investments into long-term; people shopping for interest rates on savings rather than loan accounts; and so on. Those who adapt will do well - but it will require a shift in mindset that may feel strange and unfamiliar. People say that “everyone” suffers during a recession but I tend to disagree - in any given market there are always winners and losers; money is game of how the idea of “value” compares itself to the price of goods around us. It is always relative to each other, in other words - and there are always ways to get ahead if you’re willing to look at the details close enough. - The Market Itself is a Bubble One thing to keep in mind that 80%+ of people don't own any stocks/crypto, so all the panic, hype, and emotional reactions you see in the media/social media is already a bubble of its own. Most people only see the prices of the things that they interact with every day - thing most people are seeing right now is that they see that inflation is cutting into their ability to survive day to day - and that something needs to be done. Until crypto products address these sorts of “bigger issues” of the public directly, it will always follow the general markets rather than setting the tone. The reality is that most people in living in United States were already used to massive inflation - the costs of living was already on the rise since 12’ onward (especially in housing, education, and healthcare - typically the 3 biggest expenses for the average person out there) and people were already getting squeezed out every year anyway. In the upcoming months there will be a lot of people with lots of money complaining about how “hard” things are for them, but I don’t expect there will be any sympathy for them - in fact, they will probably be the target for the next ridicule cycle if anything, really. What that means is that the economy was already hell for most people during the "good times" - inflation was already well out of control but we simply failed to acknowledge it. On a personal level, I lost more friends (especially artists) than I care to talk about: many were forced to move away from the places they loved because the costs of simply existing in certain areas became untenable. A lot of people I knew gave up on having kids, gave up on their dreams, went back living with their parents - worse case, some of them literally ended up on the streets simply because they were unable to pay their rent. People who have known me long enough know that prior to getting into crypto I was heavily involved with housing politics through the YIMBY movement - though this downturn is hurting my portfolio too, it's hard for me to think that a market crash would be a bad thing long-term, because not only would it would lessen the pearl-clutching incentives/behaviors of NIMBYs, it should also bring down costs of everything as a whole. And that is good for everybody, not just the few who happen to be lucky enough to get their hands on a certain type of ERCs. So while it may be unpleasant to see the numbers in your accounts go down, this is the correction that many have been waiting for - the correction that we need. Once the housing market stops going up, there’s less reason (and ability) for NIMBYs to defend their imaginary gains against the tides of supply and demand - and in the long run, the market should equalize itself to where it should be. What Web3 needs more of is people with a mindset of abundance rather than of scarcity - and this will become more important as the crypto ecosystem starts to mature. Web3 is not only a movement of its own, but it’s also a repudiation of the bad habits of the Wall Street/Web2 model - which has, over time, become a ponzi scheme of its own. Low interest loans allowed startups, politicians, and scammers to “fundraise” their way out of trouble: No money to pay for things we need? No problem - just print more! Company not profitable? No problem - just raise your Series Z to keep it going just a little bit longer! Ponzi schemes do actually “work” on some level, after all - as long as the market keeps on going up.As we’ve seen with what happened with LUNA/3AC - which was entirely backed on the fantasy of Bitcoin going up forever and forever - there’s going to be a backlash against the stock market too, so that’s something to keep an eye out for. How did Bernie Madoff get away with what he did for over 20 years? The market was always going up. Now that the tide is pulling, we’ll get to see who was swimming naked underneath this whole time. - It’s Time for the King (Bitcoin) to Serve its People Bitcoin is obviously the first of its kind and currently the market leader in the crypto space as we speak - but for how long? While Ethereum is moving towards proof-of-stake as its primary economic engine (taking most of its tokens along with it), Bitcoin leaned hard into the proof-of-work + scarcity model in the last few years and never looked back. Given that the store-of-value idea is not unique to any coin - and that the only “value” Bitcoin currently provides is potential speculative gains (which are on its way out as staking rewards start to look more appealing during a recession) and a strange retro-nostalgia aesthetic for the pre-08’ eras (which will gradually fade over time), it’s hard to see it surviving for the long term. More broadly speaking, “it was there first” is exactly the type of NIMBY argument that the market will “correct” in the upcoming recession, taking down a multitude of asset classes that have been relying on that mentality up until this point. Ethereum is attempting to escape that fate through their “merge” (we’ll see if they’re successful in doing that this summer), but Bitcoin has basically signed the pact to go down with the ship. In a few months, it could potentially be the only proof-of-work system left on the charts, quite literally. I’ve always found it odd that a lot of Bitcoin fans aren’t too shy about calling their coin of choice “King” - which is actually a fairly new phenomenon that came during the 16’-18’ run, not before. (The dev community was much purer back then.) This phrase clashes directly with their supposed support for decentralization and democratization of money - the cognitive dissonance there is massive, to say the least. (Since there is no on-chain governance in BTC systems a small group of miners usually end up controlling everything on the protocol level behind closed doors, btw.) There’s something very disturbing about the glint you see in their eyes when they claim that Bitcoin holders (not anyone else, obviously) will become the most “powerful” people in the world in a few years - I don’t think anyone outside of that bubble really believes that - especially now. This is the year 2022 and we don’t really have the time to idolize or fantasize the absolute powers of monarchy, even in imaginary forms. Web3 will rely on the transparency of ledgers to establish partnerships of mutual benefit, enforced by precision and reliability of smart contracts - but this requires us to get better at collaboration, rather than moving unilaterally and monopolistically, as Web2 has typically done. As is the case with modern monarchies - the royalty can either choose to step down or be taken down forcibly - one or the other will happen, either way. BTC has largely been left out of the development talks of Web3 systems as a whole, since they refused to fork out their systems to make compatibility improvements - it will eventually get left behind as the world continues to move without them. Luckily this will happen through the simple process of numbers going up and down - rather than having to deal with the fallout of it in the real-world itself. - What’s Coming Next for Web3? The typical pattern that the economy goes through during periods of recession is that they switch from a speculative to a savings mindset - when both the banks and the government spends all their money and have literally nothing left, what do they do? Raise interest rates to incentivize people to put money back in. As far as anyone can tell, the fundamentals of this relationship hasn’t changed and is not likely to have done so during this cycle either. In crypto this means that there will be less demand for NFT lotteries and higher demand for coins that offer staking rewards as a benefit - undoubtedly there will be more and more people searching for the best rates out there as the Fed starts to raise its rates even further in order to keep inflation under control. Interest rates has been at 0% for so long that most people probably forgot that it was a thing - staking was a hard sell even during last year’s run since news of its developments were largely out-blasted by the NFT mania as a whole. But as we start transitioning into a different phase of the economy, people’s priorities are likely to shift. Some coins that are well positioned to take advantage of this shift are Tezos, Algorand, Cardano, NANO, and many of the other coins that have been proof-of-stake from the very beginning. Ethereum and Dogecoin both have plans on switching over to proof-of-stake in the future (ETH supposedly in August, Dogecoin’s date is unknown), but the elephant in the room that nobody is talking about right now is the fact that Bitcoin doesn’t have the means (nor the plans to) transition into anything that is likely to be relevant in the near future. Time will tell, but we’ll see what happens over the course of the next few months, next few years, since what happens is likely to be a crucial turning point for the industry as a whole. Now that mainstream money has left the space, both whales and HODLers are waiting for the right time to reorganize their portfolios and get back in. With fiat money out of the picture, we’re likely to see more independent movement between coins and clear winners and losers emerge within the ecosystem rather than always moving in parallel as it has up until now. What comes out in the aftermath of all of this will be a very different crypto landscape - possibly with the “flippening” happening during the midst of it as well. As one last reminder, your portfolio going down is not necessarily a bad thing, if the goods that you pay for day-to-day gets, on average, cheaper. So I hope people don’t lose sight of the bigger picture and sees the opportunities and benefits that can come out of this transition as a whole. Money is about to get smarter: something that people have been demanding for a very long time. Well, if that’s what you’re looking for it’s coming right for us - hope people can recognize it when it’s here.
GEMINI:XTZUSDLong
by RyanTanaka
SPX Daily TA Cautiously BearishSPX Daily cautiously bearish. Recommended ratio: 10% SPX, 90% Cash. *Gains from yesterday's FOMC announcement about a 75 bp rate hike were all but given back today in what was an apparent Bull Trap. With June's PMI report coming 06/23 and July's CPI report coming 07/13, it's hard to imagine that the inflation situation is going to get better when SNB just raised their policy rate for the first time since 2007 , the BOE sees domestic inflation hitting 11% in October and still only raised their bank rate by 25 bp (albeit for a fifth consecutive time the BOE bank rate sits at only 1.25%) today, the ECB has somehow managed to keep their bank rate at -0.50 amidst all of this (it has remained unchanged since 2019) and will meet 07/21 to announce a planned 25 bp bank rate increase, and the BOJ is set to announce (in approx 5 hours) whether or not they will slow down QE and begin hiking their policy rates too . All that said, a global recession is very much so on the table and it currently seems as if that's what it will take for equity and crypto markets to bottom (financial markets usually rise and fall before the economy does due to their futures dependency).* Price is currently trending down at $3666 and is still technically testing $3706 support. Volume remains Moderate (High) and after favoring sellers in today's session has no favored sellers in eight of the past ten sessions. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $4105, this margin is mildly bullish. RSI is currently testing the uptrend line from 01/27/22, as well as the uptrend line from August 2015, at ~30. Stochastic is currently crossing over bullish at 6.50 but is trending down slightly and may regress to a bearish crossover in tomorrow's session if it cannot find buying momentum; the next resistance is at 18.32 and support at max bottom. MACD remains bearish and is currently trending down at 95 with no signs of trough formation as it is quickly breaking away from -76.22 minor support. ADX is currently trending up at 25 as Price continues to fall, this is bearish. If Price is able bounce here at $3706 minor support then it will likely aim to retest the lower trendline of the descending channel from August 2021 at ~$3900 as resistance. However, if Price continues to break down here, it will likely retest $3508 minor support for the first time since November 2020. Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes above) $3706.
SP:SPX
by dailytaguy
2
ETHUSD Daily TA BearishETHUSD Daily bearish. Recommended ratio: 5% ETH, 95% Cash. *With Celsius and 3AC both crashing hard and on the verge of total collapse, the crypto market is continuing to take a barrage of bearish hits during a period of Fed QT and hawkish monetary policy.* Price is currently forming a Bearish Engulfing candle (at $1050) as it quickly approaches sub-$1000 prices; the next support is at $775.83. Volume is Moderate (high) and, if it closes today in the red, will have favored sellers in nine of the ten last sessions. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $1550, this margin is mildly bullish. RSI was rejected by the uptrend line from 01/22/22 as resistance and is currently trending down at 20; the next support is the ATL at 17.42. Stochastic crossed over bullish at 3 in yesterday's session and is already on the verge of regressing to a bearish crossover at 3 in today's session; the next resistance is at 17.81. MACD remains bearish and is currently trending down at -237 with no signs of trough formation as it is slowly losing -197.34 support; the next support is the ATL at 318.82. ADX is currently trending up at 47 as Price continues to fall, this is bearish. If Price is able to bounce here it will have another opportunity to test the lower trendline of the descending channel from October 2021 at $1350 as resistance. However, if Price continues to break down here it will likely test $775.83 support for the first time since breaking above it in January 2021. Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes above) $1350.
COINBASE:ETHUSD
by dailytaguy
BTC, the unprecedented crash(avoid becoming the exit liquidity)Bitcoin's price action can be best described by its tendency to create numerous fake S&R levels & S&D zones to confuse retail traders. Now that it's testing the previous cycle high & 200wma(which has historically signaled the cycle bottom), retail can fall once again into the trap of consistently buying the dip on each low. With the inflation soaring, interest rates at levels the likes of which has not been seen in a long time, and a looming recession, I can't see neither 20k nor 200wma as the cycle bottom . Bitcoin will most likely visit its origin at around 10k range. Next stop is the flip level at 4k. Each and every rally to supply areas is a fake rally in my opinion. Significant price action needs significant shift in sentiment & attitude of retail traders. Sub 15k is easily in the cards for now. Lastly, don't become the big player's exit liquidity at these tough times in the world. Invest wisely. (FaN-)
CME:BTC1!Short
by FaN-
5
BTCUSD Daily TA Cautiously BearishBTCUSD Daily cautiously bearish. Recommended ratio: 15% BTC, 85% Cash. *Markets seemed to like the Fed's decision to go with a 75 bp rate hike, but with the next PMI report arriving on June 23rd it's unclear how long this excitement will last. If PMI comes in higher than last month and by a larger percentage than the previous report, it would imply that inflation is still raging and markets will likely react negatively; if it comes in higher than last month but by a lesser percentage than the previous report, it will likely signal that inflation is slowing and markets may react negatively but perhaps more briefly than in the previous scenario; and if it somehow comes in lower than it did in May we may see a stronger rally to end the month. The next CPI report is due July 13th and the next FOMC meeting is July 26-27. Vlad the Not so Great is likely going to continue escalating the war in Ukraine, China's 'Zero-Covid' Policy may or may not come to a halt come Autumn when it is election time for the CCP, and the situation between China/Taiwan/Japan and the South and East China Sea is still a wildcard for the end of 2022. Lots to be vigilant about so stay safe.* Price is currently forming a Bull Flag bottom in effort to reclaim $24180 minor support and avoid formally testing $19417 support. Volume remains high and is currently on track to favor buyers if it can close this session in the green; buyers reacted positively to the FOMC decision to raise the Fed Funds Rate by 75 bps. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $31150, this margin is mildly bullish at the moment. RSI is currently trending up at 25.60 support as it attempts to reclaim support at the uptrend line form 01/22/22. Stochastic remains bearish and is currently trending sideways at max bottom; though it can coast in the "bearish autobahn zone" for some time, a bullish crossover is likely pending. MACD remains bearish and is currently trending down at -2037; the next support (minor) is at -2497 and the next resistance -1435 (still very loosely can act as support with a bounce here). ADX is currently trending up at 32 as Price is attempting to find a bottom, this is mildly bearish. If Price is able to continue the move upward it will likely test $24180 minor resistance before potentially going higher to test the 50/50 uptrend line from August 2017 at $29k. However, if Price breaks down here then it will likely test $19417 support. Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes above) $24180.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by dailytaguy
Amazon Pricing in a Great Recession...This is simply an observation: The yearly return on Amazon (AMZN) is approaching the yearly return it had during the Great Recession. Are markets becoming too fearful? Are we truly as worse off now as we were during the financial collapse in 2008? History has shown that more likely than not, ten years from now most people won't even remember why there was panic selling in June 2022. How many people remember why the stock market crashed in May 2010, August 2011, or August 2015? The VIX was much higher in each of these months than it is now.
NASDAQ:AMZN
by SpyMasterTrades
BTC/USD Daily TA Cautiously BearishBTC/USD Daily cautiously bearish. *BTC has finally broken down below the 50/50 uptrend line from April 2017 and now risks falling to retest the official uptrend line from April 2017 (for the first time since October 2020) at $15k-$19k. All eyes are on the FOMC meeting this Wednesday when the Fed will decide whether to go through with another 50bp rate hike or be even more dovish and go for 75bp (or even 100bp) in attempt to slow down inflation. As unfortunate as it may be, cryptos and equities will continue to be hit the hardest (highest amount of speculation here) until the Fed is able to ring in inflation. If we end up with a hard landing (and recession), this will likely signify that the bottom is in for cryptos and equities and the next focus can be on how to revitalize growth.* Recommended ratio: 5% BTC, 95% Cash. Price broke down below the 50/50 uptrend line from April 2017 after testing it as support for 30 consecutive sessions and is now testing $24180 minor support (currently trending down at $23k). Volume is High in today's session marked by a 15% sell off; it's currently on track to favor sellers for seven consecutive sessions if it can close today in the red. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at the 50 MA (~$32k), this margin is mildly bullish. RSI is currently testing the uptrend line from 01/22/22 at 25.60 support. Stochastic remains bearish and is currently testing max bottom, where it can potentially coast in the "bearish autobahn zone" for a while. MACD crossed over bearish in today's session at -868 minor resistance, it is currently trending down at -1331 and fast approaching -1435 support. ADX is currently trending up at 27 as Price continues to fall, this is bearish. If Price is able to bounce here at $24180 minor support, it will likely trade sideways until it can test the 50/50 uptrend line from April 2017 as resistance at $29k or the descending trendline from November 2021 at $24k-$29k. However, if Price continues to break down here then it will likely test $19417 support for the first time since breaking out above it in December 2020. Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes above) $24180.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by dailytaguy
USDX Daily TA Cautiously BullishUSDX Daily cautiously bullish. *Equities are down, cryptos are down, commodities are down (yes Gold included), real estate/housing market down, inflation up and the US dollar (as well as Russian ruble)... up. The Fed is expected to announce anywhere from a 50bp-100bp rate hike this Wednesday if they want to be in line with their promise to go "beyond neutral" to ring in still growing inflation; 50bp would likely assuage markets in the short term and stall the dollar, whereas 75bp+ would likely send markets lower and keep pushing up the dollar.* Recommended ratio: 90% USDX, 10% cash. Price is currently in Discovery as it is currently printing a new ATH at $105.05 amidst a big push back into treasuries (10y/30y). Volume remains Moderate (high) and is currently on track to favor buyers for a fourth consecutive session if it can close in the green in today's session. Parabolic SAR flips bearish at $101.36, this margin is mildly bearish. RSI is currently breaking above 63.78 and is trending up at 68.60 as it fast approaches overbought territory. Stochastic remains bullish and is currently on the verge of testing max top (where it can potentially coast in the bullish "autobahn zone" for a while). MACD remains bullish for a second consecutive session and is currently trending up at 0.39, the next resistance is at 0.46; if it blows past 0.46, it will likely test the uptrend line from August 2020 at around 0.80 resistance. ADX is currently trending up at 23 as Price continues to rise, this is mildly bullish and becomes very bullish if it can maintain this same correlation above 25. If Price is able to continue in its Discovery, the next psychological level to watch for is $110. However, if Price retreats from here then it will likely test $103.77 support. Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes below) $103.77.
PEPPERSTONE:USDX
by dailytaguy
Will Bitcoin go to $20K in 6 months?Bitcoin is in a very dangerous (bearish) situation by each quantitative metric in financial analysis -technical, fundamental and manipulative-. The mid-trend is clearly bearish, with a ~33 RSI in the weekly chart, and a ~46 RSI in the monthly chart, as well as bearish moving averages (210, 70, 14), and the price under them. The price is experiencing some corrections and volatility around the $30K-$28K support, and even if its still reliable a pull-back an a restart of a 2 type trend (bullish) the odds are more bearish (65% vs 35% - would I say without demos). Based on the TTW analysis, the most probable scenario is that BTC will be having movements between $28K and $35k for some weeks or months, making a lot of retail traders to enter in the wrong break points and institutionals to wait for the price to go to support levels around $20K at the end of the year. This is the most probable scenario, but each active quant fund manager should have its own muti-strategy bots for each occasion , including the beginning of a new type 2 trend. I am using financial engineering to short BTC futures in different key points, and I am bullish in the long-run, but all the analysis indicates that in the next months the most probable scenario is a decrease in demand of this security token, so it would be more convenient to implement an active, not a passive investment approach.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by blockmas