Get started

Recession

Strong nonfarm payrolls send greenback flyingEUR/USD 🔽 GBP/USD 🔽 AUD/USD 🔽 USD/JPY 🔼 USD/CAD 🔼 XAU 🔽 WTI ▶️ US nonfarm payrolls in July added 528,000 jobs, shattering the original estimate of 290,000 and reaching a five-month high. The strong employment readings seemingly dispelled recession fears, and would likely extend the string of aggressive rate hikes from the Federal Reserve. The surprise boost for the greenback sent its peers to a sharp decline, GBP/USD recovered from 1.2025 to a closing price of 1.2071. EUR/USD closed lower at 1.0181, despite optimistic industrial production data from Germany and France. Mixed Chinese economic data didn’t stop the Aussie from falling to 0.6909 against the US dollar. Meanwhile, the USD/JPY pair gained over 210 pips to 134.97 as the notable performer, and USD/CAD rose to a high of 1.2977 then stabilized and closed at 1.293. Gold futures were also spooked to $1,781, then rebounded to 1,791.2 an ounce. WTI oil futures experienced minor fluctuations, mostly traded flat at $89.01 a barrel. More information on Mitrade website.
by Mitrade_official
SPX500 recession is already here?I compared what happened in 2008 with current chart: - In 2008, the market fell over 50% - In 2008, the bear market lasted around 450 days If we’re about to witness similar situation now, we are long way from the bottom: - 50% drop would be around 2200, they we would see double bottom and trend revelsal - the bear market would last till March/April 2023 Of course the market doesn’t have to repeat the same pattern. I believe the worst is yet to come. If we look into this using Elliott waves, we did Wave 1, we’re about to finish Wave 2- 4200 strong resistance. It means next Wave 3 will be a big one. After seeing good numbers on Non Farm Payrols last Friday, the markets didn’t rally. It means Fed might be more hawkish in September to fight the inflation, raising interests rates even by 0.75 point. It is not a trading advice, please do your own analysis.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by Trinnisia_Trades
More drops coming and correctedBear market isn’t over but it went up to correction. Bear flag still formed and corrected from the big drop from the inflation, Russian-Ukraine war.. further than that, we should be seeing more coming drop for nice good legs up. Recession had started a week ago but yet now the U.S. economy will be facing the biggest recession yet.. the question was “aren’t we prepared. “ Crypto crash is coming as well this month while resistance are still hitting, please trade safe and be careful of the upcoming crash for all cryptos
BITSTAMP:ETHUSD
by JoyBoyVegae
3
Recession, inflation..S&P 500 and BTC will fall in 2 weeks❓Hi friends! In this idea i`ll show you only the facts about S&P 500 and current economy situation according to companies reports for Q2. As you all know BTC copy stock market movements so if it will fall, crypto will fall as well. 📊 Let`s begin from the idea i made for you 2 weeks ago. The HUGE amount of traders was expect the fall to $320-350 levels. As you can see the price stopped close to the support#1 area and break the falling wedge. The S&P 500 exactly copies our scenario and already reach $413. If you had used this scenario two weeks ago, you would have gotten: 1️⃣ an average annual return of +13% for the S&P 500 in 2 weeks 2️⃣ bought the S&P 500 index at a discounted price of 2021 and could have continued to keep it on your balance, if you use conservative ways of trading or investing 📊 So why the "recession" didn't affect the price of S&P 500? The classic term recession means a drop in economic performance for more than two consecutive quarters, which is exactly happen this time. But, let's look at company Q2 reports, because if the economy is in a recession, then the reports must be terrible: 🔥avarage earnings growth +8.8% vs. 4.1% expected 🔥avarage earnings growth of +14.9% vs. 10.1% expected 🔥+500,000 additional jobs Additionally: 🔥 USA begin largest energy partner of EU 🔥 oil prices fall for 28% from $128 to $87 per last 6 weeks 🚩 And the last , there have been many such recessions over the past 30 years but in 52% of cases the market has continued to grow. Just the facts. So is it recession or not? 📊 Also you can check this idea for BTC and S&P 500. Of course the price can make a pullback from $420 key level but with a 95% probability will continue its growth. 📊 Will BTC reach the 10-12k in this cycle? A lot of people expect the fall of BTC to $10-12k as it was to S&P 500 and $320-350 area but as you see this wasn`t happen. Only if BTC will grow to 30k and a lot of traders open their long traders with huge leverages than trap might happen. Or something like war between China and Taiwan could affect the dump. But BTC price it will be the last what you will think about in this case. 🚩In any other case, BTC will rise or consolidate, as it always was at the beginning of the bull market. ✅We only have to take advantage of the opportunities the cryptocurrency market provides. I use DOM and Footprint to trade, which helps me identify the orders of the big players and open trades with them. In my opinion, these are the most undervalued tools in trading. 🔥 Friends, write your thoughts about S&P 500 and BTC in the comment. Do you agree with me or you have smth to add? 💻Friends, press the "like"👍 button, write comments and share with your friends - it will be the best THANK YOU. P.S. Personally, I open an entry if the price shows it according to my strategy. Always do your analysis before making a trade.
AMEX:SPY
by Yuriy_Bishko
1
2008 vs 2022 I found a lot of similarity's between this crash and the 2008 financial crisis stock market crash. Quick TA summary: 1. We have the same kind of downwards parallel channel 2. The chart of the 2022 crash so far fits pretty well into the 2008 crash, the chart of the 2008 crash fits pretty well into today's chart. Quick Fundamental summary: There are so many reasons why the economy could have a meltdown. I wrote about it last year in November in my previous post, but there are other things to talk about now: 1. The FED changing the definition of a recession. The US GDP came in at -0.9% for Q2, which is the second consecutive quarter in a row that the FED published negative GDP growth. Here is how we actually define a recession, like we have always done: "Experts declare a recession when a nation’s economy experiences negative gross domestic product (GDP), rising levels of unemployment, falling retail sales, and contracting measures of income and manufacturing for an extended period of time. Recessions are considered an unavoidable part of the business cycle—or the regular cadence of expansion and contraction that occurs in a nation’s economy". I mean come on guys, these terms/indicators exists so that governments and central banks can change their policy's on time. But instead of actually changing their policy to a recession policy, they simply deny the recession and even try to change the definition of it. We have heard the "this time is different" enough times and it has so far always lead to real problems. This has to do with the fact that there are going to be new elections soon, so denying the recession is a convenient thing for them to do. 2. The biggest drop in Average and Median New US Home prices since 2008. April Median: $457,000 and June Median: $402,400 this is a decline of 11.95% in the past 2 months. April Average: $569,300 and June Average: $456,800 this is a decline of 19,76% in the past 2 months. 3. 40% of Americans Are Struggling to Pay Their Bills Right Now. "More Americans are struggling to pay their bills now more than any other time in 2022 — and possibly even since the pandemic began.For more than 91 million U.S. adults, affording typical household expenses is “somewhat difficult” or “very difficult,” according to data released this week by the Census Bureau. That accounts for 40% of the Americans who responded to the bureau's survey between June 29 and July 11. (If you include folks who took the survey but did not respond to that particular question, the portion is 36%.)" 4. Unfortunately inflation is not coming down, even though the FED is raising it's interest rates pretty aggressively. They told us that inflation was going to be temporary, but it wasn't. They have clearly underestimated the situation. 5. 80% of all US dollars in existence were printed in the last 22 months (from $4 trillion in January 2020 to $20 trillion in October 2021 (honestly what were they thinking, this isn't monopoly guys...) 6. US OIL en UK OIL have both dropped below $100. Every time this has happened we have gone into a recession, and most of the time the stock market had pretty significant losses. Gasoline prices are still abnormally high, as you noticed when you are refilling your car with fuel. 7. A lot of company's have been beating their EPS lately. However the expectations for EPS are like half of what the company's had been reporting from 6 to 9 months ago. 8. We are heading into September next month, which is statistically the worst month for stocks. The biggest crashes have happened in November. PE ratio's are still high so they have to come down. As of 4:00pm EDT Fri Aug 5, The current Shiller PE Ratio is 31.10. Mean: 16.96 Median: 15.88 As you can see we still have a long way down to go... 9. Food shortages for the following products: (1). Chickpeas 2. Wheat 3. Sugar 4. Avocados 5. Paper Goods 6. Canned Goods 7. Eggs and Meat 8. Pet Food 9. Baby Formula 10. Liquor Why Are These Items in Short Supply? "It’s because of labor shortages and supply-chain issues, from food manufacturers to grocery stores. There simply aren’t enough people to “make the goods, move the goods and sell the goods,” says Jim Dudlicek, a representative for the National Grocers Association. According to Parade, the recent invasion of Ukraine by Russia plays a role, with supply chains from Europe heavily disrupted. Labor shortages also continue, with people still out due to COVID-19 or resigning due to low wages and poor work conditions. In addition, supply is affected by more people cooking and eating at home, a trend that started at the onset of the pandemic. “Demand has been very, very high,” Denis says. Still, she doesn’t think there’s a reason for people to stockpile. She pointed to lumber as an example of a product that was extremely hard to get for a while, but has become more plentiful in recent months, and the food supply chain likely will rebound in a similar fashion, although it may take time." 10. Micheal Burry wrote: "Dead cat bounces are the most epic. 12 of the top 20 nasdaq 1-day rallies have happened during the 78% drop from 2000's top. 9 of the top 20 S&P500 1-day rallies happened during the 86% drop from the 1929 top. Micheal Burry also wrote: RE: paradigm shifts/speculative peaks, the SP500 bottomed 13% lower than 2002's bottom in 2009, 17% lower than 1998's LTCM crisis low in 2002, and 10% lower than 1970's low in 1975. 15% lower than the COVID low is SPX at $1862. - Shiller PE of 16, nominal PE of 9. In historic range.
SP:SPXShort
by Y_Duursma
11
Market comments #1Hello everyone. I tried to put out regular market updates in the past, but I failed to do so for different reasons. This time, my idea is to gather the best tweets, articles, charts, etc., and add some brief comments. I will post these out regularly as long as I have decent material. 1. Sentiment is still very bearish, which means more upside is still possible. twitter.com 2. Soft landing team seems to be doing well so far... Until it eventually won't be doing so. I believe a scenario like 1989 is possible for markets, though I am slightly less optimistic than Jared. www.bloomberg.com twitter.com 3. Valuations can get out of hand as multiple market forces drive stocks. Stocks could trade higher and higher despite bad earnings. twitter.com twitter.com 4. The US has low unemployment, but its labor market is nowhere near as strong as it was before Covid or before the 2008 GFC twitter.com twitter.com 5. Jobs are a lagging indicator; however, as the Fed is working with lagging data, they could hike more than they should. Good news now = bad news later; therefore, the market suffers now on good news, as it 'sees' the future. twitter.com twitter.com twitter.com 6. The yield curve inverting doesn't mean we will have a crash. A recession is guaranteed at this point, but remember that the recession comes many months after the inversion. twitter.com 7. So far, this is a worse situation than 2012, 2015, and 2018; however it is nowhere near as bad as 2008 or 2020. Could it get that bad? I doubt it for now. Of course, with new data, I am ready to change my mind if I have to. twitter.com 8. Some interesting comments by Jared Dillian with whom I agree: twitter.com twitter.com 9. My main worry is what happens between the US and China in the next few months, especially in October, as I think it would be tough to avoid an invasion. Heightened tensions alone can create a lot of problems... twitter.com 10. The Turkish Lira is heading yet for another collapse. No idea what could stop the Turkish economy from falling off a cliff in the next few years. www.zerohedge.com
by BitcoinMacro
US Recession? We will Sink at least 50% For a Recession.Between the 2008 great financial housing crisis, the end of the dotcom bubble in the year 2000, the 1970s stagflation recession, and the great depression of 1929 all have one thing in common. The market retraced at least 50% from it's peak. I personally believe the US economy is in conditions for a recession that will at least sink 50% or more if we were to compare to past indicators and technical conditions of a recession. Just my opinion take it with a grain of salt. At the end of the day past is no indicator of the future. However history doesn't repeat itself it often rhymes. There's been a lot of rhymes I'm seeing. Much peace, love, health, and wealth!
SP:SPX
by peacefuljustin
5
#BRENT crude oil - technical picture deterioratingAs we all know, Brent crude has been one of the strongest commodities for quite some time given all the supply issues from Russia/Ukraine and under investment. Oil has lost some critical technical levels losing both its horizontal support, rising channel as well as 200 day moving average. The market can be telling us two things, potentially, (1) there is some sort of resolution to the Russia/Ukraine embargo, or (2) Economic growth slows down as we enter recession, with demand destruction starting to take place Next target is likely $86 which was an important level of resistance in prior years - and likely to become support should we drop further.
TVC:UKOILShort
by MarcoOlevano
SPY analysis-option and fundmental the big topic of this month and July has been RECESSION . I believe it depends all on the labour market now if we start to see increasing unemployment that could tip us into a recession. this is why I am short on the SPY because I believe this rally will fizzle out because there have been no real positive changes in the macroeconomics currently to fuel this rally, today we have initial jobless claims which will give us a good insight to which way the labour market is moving. which now is the main factor into the decision if we are going into a recession because the realized strength of the consumer is purely based on them receiving an income. Because of their credit card debt, the US consumer heavily relies on credit cards which could possibly mean with the labour market becoming weaker consumer spending could decrease even further as this has already started to happen. another sign that supports my view is that implied volatility has decreased and the lower the implied volatility the lower the premium paid for the option which means it will fall in value. as well as a put-to-call ratio of 1.265 which shows an increase of negativity around the SPY. currently, we have a volatility smirk for the SPY which is where the implied volatility for lower strike prices so this means investors are buying more puts(short position). this option analysis gives us a good insight into which way the SPY will move. on a micro company level, the cost of debt is increasing because of Hawkish rate hikes. if the cost of debt increases the weighted average cost of capital will increase(WACC) so for a company to be creating value its return on invested capital has to be higher than WACC. the reason I have included this is that i gives a good insight into what is actually causing these companies' value to decrease.
AMEX:SPYShort
by harrybergin
3
This recession identifies as an apache helicopterChart displays the US inflation rate and US unemployment rate. Red zones mark recessions (from stlouisfed.org). 6/8 of the past recessions are lead by inflation rates surpassing 5%. Only the dotcom recession had an inflation rate below 5%, and the other was COVID, which we are experiencing the resulting inflation currently. so, every time the inflation rate jumps, unemployment follows on a lag. we can see that the ends of recessions are usually marked by a declining inflation rate and peaking unemployment rate. but remember, this is not a recession and our country is in great hands. ECONOMICS:USIRYY FRED:UNRATE
ECONOMICS:USIRYYShort
by Feech37
1
Bitcoin Where Are We? Still Some Pain On The Horizon. I don't believe we are out of the weeds yet and still have a ways to go with this bear market. The Federal Reserve's aggressiveness towards raising interest rates to combat inflation isn't the best conditions for a bull market in asset markets in general. We still haven't had any sideways movement with Bitcoin just yet and I don't believe we've found a true bottom either. We could rally up to $28,000 or $30,000 but volume is fading and it seems like the current rally is starting to stall out. There's a big possibility that we revisit a sub $20k Bitcoin in the coming weeks or months. If the United States continues it's trend of negative growth that will not translate well into the crypto markets. It's all about the cycles at the end of the day. The goal is to accumulate during the bear as close to the bottom as possible and ride the wave into the next bull cycle.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by peacefuljustin
3
Upside for Gold as rate expectation cooled by recession riskSummary The surge in energy and agricultural commodities in the past 6 months had materialized into serious inflation even down to the consumer end across the globe. To cope with inflation, the Fed has begun to raise rate at an accelerating pace. The rise in the interest rate of the USD causes dysfunction of traditional risk haven such as Japanese Yen FX:USDJPY and Gold COMEX:GC1! . However, with more evidence that the US is very close to a recession, the Fed might need to tune down to a more cautious approach to balance between taming inflation and speeding up recession due to higher borrowing cost (and debt repayment) for business. The stabilization in rate hike might soften the already strong dollar, hence providing room for traditional risk haven assets to rebound and restore some of their risk haven property . With still ongoing global political uncertainty (see appendix for more detail), there might be further upside potential beyond rebound. One should pay extra attention to the collective transition of power globally which is happening at a similar time coincidentally. Technical and trade planning Just like most commodities, the dominant force driving gold downward is the strength of the USD. The US Dollar Index TVC:DXY had reached a new high at 107.786, before retracing back to 106.895 to close lower last Friday, creating a reverse hammer candle. While the uptrend of the dollar index is still effective, however the bearish pattern hinted the peak might have reached (or at least the upside momentum is reducing) . Similar pattern in reverse was seen in many commodities including gold, which means opportunity for rebound trade. Note that gold currently is trading below most moving averages which means the downtrend is still in power. 20 days moving average trading below the 50 days, and both pointing downward double confirm the bearish view. In rebound trade it is very important to keep your cut loss and profit taking tight. One should also adopt strategies that allow more tolerance for error (e.g. longing call option with >30-60 days to expiration). Here are some technical levels trader of gold should be aware of: Downside support (to cut loss if dropped through) 1676.7: 2021-Aug hammer candle bottom 1721.8: 2021-Sep downside retest bottom Upside resistance (to take profit if fail to go further) 1785: May-16 bottom (broke on Jul-5) 1833: 250 days moving average 1878.6: Jul-3 rebound peak Appendix: Political events to keep an eye on Asia The former prime minister of Japan, Shinzo Abe was assassinated last Friday. Abe was seen as the de facto power of Japan. He initiated and was involved in lots of Japan economic policy and China-Japan relation issues. Close ties with global leaders, he was one of the early promoters of threat emerging from growing China, which later led to global boycott of China. He also showed his support to Taiwan as he saw the country as the first line of defense of Japan from China. One of his unaccomplished goals was to revise the country’s pacifist constitution to formalize the Japanese self-defense force as army, and broaden its military agenda outside of homeland defense, to be involved in regional security issues, such as Taiwan. The death of Shinzo Abe might help the constitutional revision to gain more supportive votes, which will worsen China-Japan existing tension. The 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party will take place in November this year. One of the major topics is whether the current Chinese leader Xi Jinping will be re-elected for the next 5-years term. With lots of policy missteps that have caused material harm to the Chinese economy and financial stability, there are growing voices within the party that they might want a leader who can focus on reviving the Chinese economy instead of political ideals. At the same time, Xi is neutralizing the opposition force by revealing their evidence of misconduct and corruption (same strategy 10 years ago). The upcoming continuation or transition of power in China is going to be a very tricky one. Europe No end in sight for Russian invasion toward Ukraine, albeit increasing military support by the western powers. Inflation continues to make record highs in Europe with latest June CPI figures standing at 8.6%, energy talk with Russia is going to be very difficult especially for natural gas which is virtually impossible to get supply from other continents. The prime minister of the UK, Boris Johnson had resigned last week amid back-to-back scandals , with the Chris Pincher case became the last straw that broke the camel's back. The United States Recession risk, high gasoline price, baby formula shortage, the series of unfortunate events had taken a toll on the president Joe Biden approval rate, which dropped to just 30% in the new national poll. The negative sentiment toward democrats is likely to make the republicans take control of both the senate and the house. The democrats probably can take advantage of the recent Supreme Court’s decision of overturning Roe v. Wade, however the edge might not be enough to change much according to the latest forecast.
COMEX:GC1!Long
by geoffreyip523
Why isn't the US officially in a recession? The US has technically entered a recession in the second quarter 2022 as the economy contracted 0.9% year over year, following a 1.6% decline in the first quarter. However, the official body that is tasked to make a call on whether the economy is in a recession has yet to declare that the US is in fact in an economic downturn. Slowdown in private and public spending In the April-June period, GDP shrank for the second straight quarter, which the US Department of Commerce attributed to the drag in private inventory and residential fixed investments, reduced federal government spending and a drop in non-residential fixed investment. General merchandise stores and motor vehicle dealers in the US eased their inventory build-up in the recent quarter, leading to the drop in private inventory investment, while the government’s move to cut down on its non-defense spending resulted in lower federal government spending. These factors offset the increase in exports and personal consumption spending in the second quarter. While the second consecutive drop in GDP reached the widely accepted definition of a recession, the US, according to a body that gets to say when the country is already in one, has yet to make a call. Who makes the call? The National Bureau of Economic Research, a nonprofit organization founded in 1920, serves as the “official” arbiter of whether the US, the world’s largest economy, is in a recession or not. The NBER’s Business Cycle Dating Committee consists of eight members who are among the country’s top economists working at leading academic institutions. The committee keeps track of the dates of peaks and troughs that frame economic recessions and expansions and its decision is based on a wider set of indicators including income, spending and employment. The NBER defines a recession as a period that involves a “significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and lasts more than a few months.” Growth slowing While the US is not in an official recession, many analysts acknowledged that the country’s economic growth is slowing. Even US President Joe Biden said “it’s no surprise that the economy is slowing down” as the economy came off of last year’s historic growth, regaining all the private sector jobs lost during the COVID-10 pandemic. “But even as we face historic global challenges, we are on the right path and we will come through this transition stronger and more secure,” Biden said in a statement last week following the release of the quarterly GDP report. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell also remains optimistic on the economy, telling reporters in a recent press conference: “I do not think the US is currently in a recession and the reason is there are too many areas of the economy that are performing too well.” Strong jobs data “This is a very strong labor market ... it doesn’t make sense that the economy would be in a recession with this kind of thing happening,” Powell said. In June, non-farm payrolls rose by 372,000 month over month, topping the 250,000 market estimate, with the unemployment rate unchanged at 3.6%, according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. “The strong 372,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in June appears to make a mockery of claims the economy is heading into, let alone already in, a recession,” Andrew Hunter, senior US economist at Capital Economics, was quoted by CNBC as saying. The strength in US consumption and employment are still providing support to the economy, but some analysts are warning that it is only a matter of time before the US succumbs to a recession as soaring inflation continues to dampen consumer appetite, while the volatility in financial markets linger due to uncertainties surrounding the COVID-19 pandemic, stagflation concerns and other factors. The International Monetary Fund last week lowered its outlook on the US economy, now expecting a 2.3% growth this year, down from its previous 3.7% expansion forecast, while it expects the world economy to rise 4.2%, slower than its anticipated 3.6% growth forecast.
ECONOMICS:USGDPQQ
by BlackBull_Markets
dow jones (us30) will %45 drop if...hello guys! us30 there is in a long term ascending channel for sure... but let look last recession closer: what was conditions of last recession : 1- break down last lower low 2- fake out last lower low 3- before starting a downward movement break ma(200) 4- last lower low break ma(200) too 5- after break down drop until %45 On the other hand, what are the current conditions: 1- last lower low break ma(200) 2- price is near of ma(200) so we are waiting for a break down of ma(200)... so, we get confirmation after ma(200) break down then we can get a lot of short position for indices and us shares: let's look at us interest rate and United States Inflation Rate charts again! i think everything is vivide in chart. what is your opinion about us30? If you agree with my analysis or you are happy, please hit the "like" button and "follow"!
VELOCITY:US30Short
by melikatrader94
11
$SPY Analysis, Key Levels & Targets$SPY Analysis, Key Levels & Targets For right now the 4hr timeframe is the one that makes the most sense to work on. (I say that but I published the 1day 😬) The 200MA on the 4hr is right where the price got caught today… which was perfect for me because I did an iron condor setup here which needs to be range bound… pretty risky but I woke up this morning just thinking it would be a slow day…. I don’t know why…. And it was slow… very flat… but with VIX elevated around 7% ALL DAY LONG…. What was that craziness… I’ll tell you what that craziness was… people loading up on puts…. That’s what vix measures…. The higher the VIX, the more puts being bought. It’s an easy formula… but that is a lesson for another day… Anyway, I did not get into my short position like I wanted to today… I should have, but I didn’t (and I’m a realtor as well and I was on the phone with clients all day… blah blah blah) So what I’m looking at on the put side is Sept 30th 434 puts… Right now they are @27.34 mid… if VIX dips into that gap it opened today the price would come down a bit but I’m thinking for now that’s as low as it might go…. Do you guys get anything out of my late night stream of consciousness ramblings?? I know I get a lot out of it when I come back to read it and see if I followed my own advice… sometimes I do, sometimes I don’t…. Anyway… that’s really it… absolutely nothing has changed since the last chart from this morning… LOL… If you guys see something that I've missed let me know... And happy trading tomorrow!!! 💃🏻 —- I am not your financial advisor. Watch my setups first before you jump in… My trade set ups work very well and they are for my personal reference and if you decide to trade them you do so at your own risk. I will gladly answer questions to the best of my knowledge but ultimately the risk is on you. I will update targets as needed. GL and happy trading. IF you need anything analyzed Technically just comment with the Ticker and I’ll do it as soon as possible…
AMEX:SPYShort
by SPYder_QQQueen_Trading
11
Meta analysis Long term.Meta is the big bet made by Facebook to corner the market on digital devices hardware currently causing problems for their other business models. The whole effort is a data wolf in sheep's clothing and precisely why they will compete long term with a decentralized metaverse from one of the big web 3 players the sandbox, decentraland, and the other side among possible other competitors in web 3. In short Facebook and its various platforms compete with digital content companies of various backgrounds for the 18-29-year-old audience. They do so with various products such as Video, Messenger, Whatsapp, Groups, Search, Workplace, marketplace, etc. These software services want to collect data to sell to advertisers to predict what an individual will want. This requires knowing more about a person than usually they know. The problem for Facebook (now Meta) is that they don't control the devices this data is generated on. Apple and Google do and they don't take kindly to a data leech on their business model. Since they control hardware decisions Meta is up a creek when decisions like IOS 14 allow you to turn off the data gathering. This is Metas' biggest problem and why oculus is so important. Snapchat challenged Facebook with filters and private messages and expiring messages capturing marketing dollars so facebook built a clone, stories, and Instagram. Tik Tok challenged Facebook on short video stories capturing marketing dollars so Facebook built a clone, reels. The bet is that metaverse interactions through either VR or AR will be the big new thing after short-form video as the primary method of interaction on the internet. Meta wants to not just be ahead of their next competitor and out of cloning and catching up territory but fully into controlling the hardware that is used to interact with such systems. Horizon is their metaverse world which one can access through either oculus or eventual AR equipment through their partnership with Luxottica. This is the pivot to Meta and much like other tech stocks, it has been hammered by the early stages of the current recession. Meta has big hoops to get through such as onboarding a population of users who need new hardware, and their future is rocky due to the past relationships with data from Facebook. The future will see Meta compete with the global decentralized blockchain web 3 metaverses for control of the digital twin infrastructure represented by NFTs controlled by self-sovereign identities or DAOs in a fully digital economy that directs resources of automated systems of production. The problem for Meta, in the opinion of this author, is they only seem aware of the interaction part of the business model for profit. They want data to sell to other companies. Meta doesn't seem to grasp the macro implications for the profit motive of production that a Metaverse enables. astoundingly, they're thinking too small. Centralized Corporations will be most challenged and supplanted by DAOs given enough time in a sufficiently decentralized metaverse. There is a possibility that a subset of DAOs enabled by quadratic voting can capture immensely profitable internet functions of the modern world. In time due to competition on price and thus profit margin, some DAOs will rise to multi-national levels. Some DAOs could become big enough and faceless enough to rend populations from their governments by challenging the interests of power. Government regulation of such DAOs will be difficult if neigh impossible, especially if profit margins of too big to fail entities are to be maintained. In such a world DAOs would hold the keys to data that participants in the DAO contribute. Some subset of such DAOs would for profit sell their data to advertisers in ways voted on by the DAO members. Precursors to this exist already such as Brave and their token BAT. Corporations destabilize government decision-making for their gain in a system designed as their sandbox. This author suspects DAOs as a disrupting force, are a possibility among the larger outcomes of various crypto ecosystems and their synergies in the long term. An exponential change in adoption of crypto more broadly could have that scenario happen sooner rather than later. But on the scale of decades, it's a distinct possibility. For Meta, the question is can you own anything in such a world and sell it to anyone else, including data, or are they just happy to make a profit for now before that transition occurs? Do they play whack-a-mole with crypto project models much like their other competitors Snap and TikTok? Whatever happens it'll be fun to watch zuck and his bucks while we make alien memes for the next few decades at least. All the best, see you on the moon.
NASDAQ:META
by GreatScottTheMoon
2