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Recession

21-AUG - BTC in stagflation and global recessionIf you just take into consideration, that so far entire #cryptocurrencies #ecosystem grew up in global #hossa and that #hossa has ended and #global #market is going into #recession, what could this mean to e.g. #BTCUSD ? During each previous recession (dotcom bubble in 2001, global recession in 2008, etc.) #SPX500 fell down >50%. We should take into consideration, that #Bitcoin had so far only positive market conditions and previous #BTC #cycles just were the #elliotwave in #uptrend and we shall enter corrective Elliot wave. #SPX500 could fall again >50% that would crash #Bitcoin heavily. It's not investment recommendation !!
SP:SPX
by tgreg
SPX Bull trap?It is time to pause, I will look into and analyze history'because as they say "history does not repeat itself but it rhymes" I would like to present the comparison of the SPX with the fall suffered in 2007. If we take as a reference the fall of the Great Recession of 2007, it was a fall of 57% during 518 days that means 17 continuous months of fall, the situation was terrible. Extrapolating it to 2022, taking into account that the fall lasted that long and the fall was -57%, it replicates so far the trend and movements of 2007. Are we facing a BULL TRAP or should we rather BUY THE DIP? Today 20/08/2022 Best regards, good investment.
SP:SPX
by wallstreetstocks
NASDAQ NQ1 - Brace Yourselves, "Fear" is ComingWhen people consider the COVID-era market cycle, especially the part where everything went up on a 75 degree angle without any particular pullback for a year and a half, they seem to have been groomed during that long process to consider that normal, and that it's going to happen again. Well, the truth is that it probably is going to happen again. One really critical characteristic of the 30% retrace we've experienced this year is VIX really could not get beyond 35. The demolition was very controlled, and there was little to no fear. But now that we've had a two month-long bear market rally/bull trap, it's time for fear to take hold, because you need to capitulate, lose money, and get short so that you can buy back higher in October. In the conventional bubble cycle, such as in WTI Crude 2008 or like, every Bitcoin/crypto pump and dump, markets have followed the conventional bubble pattern: However, what I believe we have ahead for us is actually a Bump and Run Reversal (BARR) , which will be characterized by a significant, quick, and violent dump below the previous lows. Then, we go and make a new all time high again and everyone is drawn into the Party like they've got nothing better to do than lose money chasing $200 AAPL. Actually, this is more or less the idea of what we've already seen manifest in action with Bitcoin (BTC). Hint: BTC is not going to bounce. Ethereum is going to Flippening instead. And then: Central Bank Digital Currencies. So what lies ahead over the next few weeks is some monstrous sell offs. With it will come all the chatter about the recession this and interest rates that and inflation and housing crisis and credit crisis oh my! There's no FOMC this month but I hear that Jackson Hole is August 25 to 27. You can probably expect an intermezzo rate hike that may be a lot heavier than 75 basis points. Then, probably at the Sept. 20 FOMC, after everything has dumped in an astounding way, the Fed will slash rates back to zero, because "reasons," and then we're off to the races placating society for October midterm political theatre and the setup for January of 2023. So what should you do? Reduce risk and also don't capitulate. Stop listening to Zerohedge, Bloomberg, and Fintwit. They're all just Fabians leading you to the slaughterhouse. Buy when there's blood in the streets, a little bit at a time. Don't short the bottom.
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by LordWrymouth
1
S&P Bear RallyS&P500 Peaked 4800, with pull backs to 4630. Current pullback to 4300 and we're seeing a huge drop to close the week. China's earnings report brought some storm to the market, shaking the bear rally. 1. Inflation has not gotten any better - it just stayed flat MoM 2. Rate hikes expected to continue to tackle inflation 3. Market structure still maintaining a down trend 4. Although oil prices had a hard dip but prices are still high compared to prior year. Fairly bullish last 2 days, closing the W candle with a huge bottom wick. If this continues, expecting a higher CPI which will signal inflation still on the table. Energy troubles coming at year end with the winter season. Energy troubles in China, and also many other countries. 5. A lot of news of surrounding lay-offs, being on the cards. Some companies already played the card. And, of course there are more factors pointing to a bearish market. Looking at debt, and the commodity dips. Probably going back to risk-off season, holding the dollar with the expectation of continued rate hikes. Looking to short S&P at key price levels if 4300 holds, alongside market structure. Economic conditions are messy in this current period. Stay adaptive.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by geneAnalytics
1
A Bearish Call On Financial Markets and The Global Economy China/Europe/EM: The UK and the entirety of Europe are in trouble. The UK now experiencing double-digit inflation and to make matters worse they are facing extreme weather and an energy shortage going into the winter. All the while Putin's war is complicating European energy supply and political ties even further. China is experiencing civil unrest, mostly thanks to an ugly property crisis. China also is experiencing lower-than-expected GDP growth. China's economy slowing has large implications given its massive presence in global trade. Emerging markets are struggling partly due to an incredibly strong dollar as well as a tight global food/energy supply. US: The US housing market is in a recession with 6 straight months of declining sales and more importantly a monthly decrease in median home prices for the first time in years (the housing market gets hit first by rising rates… remember 08?). US consumer credit I.e., debt levels, are through the roof. Signaling that the consumer might not be as strong as market commentators are saying. Layoffs are increasing steadily, while inflation is staying high. I am bothered to see the number of peak inflation calls after just ONE MONTH of zero gains in headline inflation. The FED is now in a lose-lose scenario where they can continue to aggressively tighten and bring down this wildly levered up global economy or back out and try to save the issue for a later date. The latter would cause additions to the size of their already immense balance sheet and create an ultra-severe recession later down the line. Either way, the recent rate hikes have not at all been fully felt by markets, and add on the possibility that the FED truly commits to QT, then a few quarters down the line we will start to see a serious weakening of market conditions across the board (equities, bonds, real estate, you name it). Forecast: Risk assets globally are going to get decimated during the next several months of trading, especially low-quality speculative names. Crypto investors should prepare to see some nasty losses, BTC to 9800, and ETH to 575 seem attainable in the medium-term. S&P 500 will NOT make any substantial or sustainable gains over the 4300 mark, 3500 is my next low target. Nasdaq 100, like crypto, is in for a large selloff, next target: 10,200. VIX will rise substantially, and could easily double from current levels. The dollar will stay higher as US rates rally upward, likely well higher than markets currently have priced in. Some commodities will make new highs- nat gas- while others like oil are poised to depreciate modestly but remain historically high. Low/non-profitable, high debt companies- Wingstop and its zombie cohorts - are at high risk of bankruptcy in the coming quarters. Widespread bankruptcies are on the horizon. Things look a little too good to be true right now in financial markets… well that's because they are. On the bright side, this bear market bounce of the past 60ish days has provided a good opportunity to exit risk assets, load up on cash and begin to add on to short positions. As always this is not financial advice. Good luck!
ECONOMICS:USCCR
by Gooby_Trades
3
How to manage Capital in an Economic DownturnThe Great Recession is not the first time that the economy has experienced downturn or recession. The last one occurred during the early 1980s, and it caused unemployment to spike and home prices to drop. However, that doesn’t mean that a similar situation cannot happen again. The effects of a recession have lasting implications for consumers and businesses. When consumers have less money to spend on goods and services, businesses must make adjustments in order to remain profitable. In fact, recessions can lead to innovation in industries like technology where creative minds come up with cheaper solutions for everyday problems. Here’s a look at how consumers are affected by recessions, what they’re doing about it, as well as how you can manage your money in these challenging times. What Happens When the Economy Recovers? When the economy recovers from a recession, there are typically two ways that consumers spend their money. One way is that consumers continue to spend on the same products and services that they bought before the recession. The other spending trend that occurs during a recovery is that consumers change the products and services that they spend money on. The reason for this change in spending habits is that consumers have changed their priorities during the recession. When a recession has caused consumers to have less disposable income, they tend to make their money go further. When consumers have less disposable income, they can no longer afford to spend money on certain products and services. The Impact of a Recession on Consumers A recession can have a lasting impact on consumers. Consumers who experience a recession tend to have less confidence in their ability to manage their money. This can cause lasting damage to their credit scores as they seek out lower interest loans or take out a repayment plan. A recession can also impact a consumer’s career and ability to earn a living wage. When a recession occurs, businesses have to make changes to remain profitable. This might include laying off employees or reducing the hours that part-time workers are scheduled for. A recession can impact consumers’ ability to buy a home as well. Mortgage rates tend to be higher during a recession as investors seek out higher returns because of the increased risk of default. Consumer Responses During a Recession When a recession occurs, consumers are likely to make changes to their spending habits in order to save money. The first thing that consumers are likely to do is reduce discretionary spending. Discretionary spending is the money that is spent on entertainment activities, eating out at restaurants, shopping for luxury items, and on travel. Another common response of consumers during a recession is to change how they get their services. When a recession occurs, consumers are likely to change how they get their banking, insurance , and healthcare services as well as how they pay their bills. How Consumers Can Manage Their Money in a Recession The best way for consumers to manage their money during a recession is to make a budget. A budget for spending should include all of the money that goes out of your bank account each month as well as how much money comes into your account. When making a budget, it is important to consider your expenses and income to see if there is any room in your budget to make changes. This can include looking at your monthly expenses and trying to reduce the amount that you spend on certain items. When you are making a budget, it is important to keep in mind that you will have to change it as time goes on. As your income changes, you may have more or less money available to spend each month. Likewise, you may also have more or less expenses to pay each month. Investing in the Stock Market: The stock market is one of the riskiest investments you can make. It’s also one of the most profitable when things go right. The stock market has its ups and downs, but it always rebounds in the long run. Even during a recession, savvy investors know how to make money in the stock market by investing in stocks and other types of securities. Investing in the stock market may seem intimidating at first, but it’s not as complicated as you think! In this Educational article, we’ll show you how to invest in the stock market if you have less than $5,000 to invest. With these tips and tricks to invest in a recession, you’ll be on your way to becoming a successful investor with an impressive portfolio sooner than you think! How to invest in the stock market with $5,000 Before you dive head first into the stock market, it’s important to know how much you have to invest. While the stock market can be rewarding, it’s also one of the riskiest investments you can make. Investing in the stock market is all about risk and reward — the more risk you take, the bigger your reward can be. Investing in the stock market requires at least $5,000 in order to diversify your portfolio. Diversification is key to long-term success in the stock market. Rather than putting all of your eggs in one basket, diversification allows you to spread your funds across many different investments. Diversification is key When you’re investing in the stock market, it’s important to diversify your portfolio. Diversification allows you to spread your funds across many different investments for two reasons: risk reduction and opportunity enhancement. Risk reduction is accomplished by not putting all of your funds into one investment. Instead, you’re spreading the funds across different types of investments. Opportunity enhancement allows you to take advantage of different types of growth opportunities. Understand why you’re investing Before you invest in the stock market, it’s important to understand why you’re investing in the first place. If you’re investing for growth, you’re looking for stocks that are currently undervalued to increase in value over time. If you’re investing for income, you’re looking for stocks that pay dividends. Take advantage of no-fee investments When you invest in the stock market, you pay fees for the management of your portfolio. Mutual funds and exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are mutual funds that are pre-packaged and purchased as a single unit. Mutual funds are professionally managed funds that are offered by financial institutions, whereas ETFs are professionally managed funds that are traded on a stock exchange. If you’re investing a small amount of money in the stock market, you’re better off choosing mutual funds or ETFs that have no or low management fees. Mutual funds and ETFs with no or low management fees are often referred to as no-load funds. Shorting ETFs can be profitable (This strategy is best suitable for Professional Traders) Shorting ETFs can be profitable if you’re investing a large amount of money in the stock market. Shorting ETFs allows you to profit from a declining market. Shorting ETFs is a very risky investment strategy and is not recommended for beginners. If you’re interested in shorting ETFs, be sure to talk to a financial advisor before making any investments. Additional Note: When the global economy is on the verge of recession, investors are scared and their first thought is to run towards things that are safe. In recent years, markets have grown to distrust risky investments such as stocks and other volatile assets. When the global economy is about to go into recession, commodities like gold and oil usually become hot properties for investors wanting to preserve their capital. There are a number of asset classes that thrive during a recession: real estate, bonds, and value stocks—or anything with a low correlation to the stock market. However, at the same time there are also some that suffer: high-beta stocks; growth stocks; growth real estate; luxury goods; emerging market equities; and anything else with a high correlation to the stock market. In our next article we will analyze Gold and Silver as an hedge against inflation and their performance in an economic downturn. Conclusion The recession that took place in the early 2000s is a great example of how a recession can change the way consumers spend their money. During this recession, consumers were likely to spend more money on food and clothing since those were necessities that consumers could not do without. When the next recession occurs, consumers may change their spending habits once again. However, it is important to remember that a recession is a natural part of the business cycle. It is likely that consumers will continue to spend their money in the future even in the face of a recession. Investing in the stock market is a smart way to diversify your investment portfolio. It’s also a great way to earn passive income through dividends. The best way to invest in the stock market if you have less than $5,000 to invest is through mutual funds or ETFs with no or low management fees. Shorting ETFs can also be a great way to make money in a recession if you have a large amount of funds to invest. Even though the technical definition of a recession has been changed/modified it is important to know that unemployment rate determines the condition of a recession.
SP:SPXEducation
by EQTSHARES
Federal rising rates continue……Federal rising rates continue and causes fall of Dow jones 30 and Nas100. Highly possible we will see another crash of a big fall since Biden signed the inflation reduction act; after few weeks of wining streaks; the brief we may seen won’t be pretty as Wall ST preparing for its losing streaks. Monkeypox are still on a spread ; everybody ignored the global health emergency .. made the economy a lot worse but soon will collapse. China attacked Taiwan But then preparing sending ground troops to invade as china warned USA that will declare world war. On top of that Taiwan are preparing ground troops of china play games. COVID-19 Omnicron variant mutated more of variant B.A 2.75 had become dangerous and spread even faster than before.. so becareful we be seeing another crash as economy is slowing down THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVISE
FX:NAS100
by JoyBoyVegae
Slowing Chinese economy sends US dollar higherEUR/USD 🔽 GBP/USD 🔽 AUD/USD 🔽 USD/CAD 🔼 XAU 🔽 WTI 🔽 Yesterday, the latest Chinese Industrial Production readings recorded a 3.8% growth - falling short of the 4.6% forecast, and raised concerns of a possible recession. On the same day, the Chinese central bank lowered its interest rate from 3.70% to 2.75%, in order to stimulate the economy while dealing with the pandemic. As such, a weakened global demand saw WTI oil futures fall to $89.41 a barrel. Meanwhile, safe-haven demand is increased with growing recession signs, the US dollar gained much momentum, USD/CAD rose and stabilized at 1.2904, gaining over 100 pips. The Reserve Bank of Australia has released its meeting minutes this morning, expecting to raise rates even further to “normalize monetary conditions over the months ahead”. The Aussie almost dropped a full 1% against the greenback, declining and slowing at 0.7020, to a closing price of 0.7022. Euro and Pound both suffered noticeable losses, EUR/USD slid to 1.016, and the GBP/USD pair closed at 1.2054. Gold futures went below the $1,800 level to $1,798.1 an ounce. More information on Mitrade website.
by Mitrade_official
Does it make too much sense?The daily NASDAQ hasn't fallen below the 900d MA since the Great Recession. Leading up to the Great Recession, there were 2 traps on the NASDAQ (one pushed the 0.38 fib and the other pushed the 0.5). When the second trap hit the 0.5 fib level, the NASDAQ crashed. In other words, it bounced off the 900d twice before capitulation set in. The current market saw the NASDAQ break through the 0.38 level (assuming because of market aggression and the fact that the dollar is inflated) and it reached the intersection of the 100d and 200d MAs earlier this year, and now it's approaching the 0.5 level again. The economy is chalked.... The economy was saved during COVID via a bubble. Print and hand out money to keep things going (probably necessary). But the Fed didn't react quick enough with the rate increases, especially once everyone realized our "leaders" had no clue what they were talking about related to COVID. So, the bubble grew. Oh, and Ukraine, China, etc.... I have a chart on my page that overlays the inflation rate over time and unemployment rate over time. Every time the inflation rate spiked, unemployment follows on a lag. So, I'm expecting unemployment to increase in the coming months, and this lines up well with the movements described above. I mean, we're already in one, but our government is either that far gone or that stupid... idk which is worse. So, there are so many things that say the crash is coming, but does it make too much sense? TVC:NDQ NASDAQ:NDX
TVC:NDQShort
by Feech37
2
'01 & '08 Type BeatFrom not only a fractal's perspective as many of you have seen from comparing price action from 08 & 01 to the present, the Moving Average distance has reached the historically critical levels as well. The below indicator is MA_dist - measuring the distance price is above & below the set Moving Average (100 daily). The price has stuck its head up above the moving average at the exact same level seen in '01 and '08. This is a critical point in distinguishing what type of bear market we're in. A return to the lows seen a few months ago would likely mean that we're only half way through this bear market capitulation. Shorting here with a tight SL would probably be my best call. The fear that put us in this price market isn't gone, it's merely priced in & there's really no reason to see any economic upside quite yet. I'm not sure how this Fall's "famine" & migration in the middle-east is going to affect all of this - there'll surely be fear & for good reason - but I couldn't say how that'll affect the current prices. Is this Fall supposed to be bullish for the US economy? One could argue for & against it - but I'll leave that up to the economists.
SP:SPXShort
by Ungovernable
4
DXY (1W) ready for next BULL Run = Risk Off mode incoming. Hi Traders, As you probably think what is the best indicator // driving force of current Stock / Crypto / Commodity markets (?)... Its probably Dollar Index. You can see its going upwards in a HUGE channel. If there is THE Recession coming (or its already in progress) ... than we Have to follow what is doing the World reserve currency. (Until it well be replaced or loose some of its position in a mix of other currencies). So MAJOR trend is upwards, as you can see at 1W/1M chart. Minor trend at 1D chart is currently sideways / down. 1D chart is attached. = Seems like its forming a BULL flag. Hence right now most indexes are in corrective stage and many of them corrected about 50%+ Upwards from local lows. Lets see what is going to happen in next months. My Humble expectation is there will be 6+ (up to 18 months) of Bear market. It will depend a LOT what can do Central banks to save the situation if its really necessary (High inflation, decreasing GDP, Economic slowdown, ...). Take care and stay Green ;)
TVC:DXYLong
by Longevity_Contrarian
2
GOLD BILL RUNOANDA:XAUUSD The MONTHLY chart shows the ratio between the spot gold price and the US inflation rate. While overall, the ratio is quite stable or consolidated for a period of more than 15 years. Hpwever. y three episodes are noted where the ratio rose parabolically including 2009, 2015 and the Covid 2022 time period . For the present, the RSI Swing Indicator has printed a Buy Signal. and the MACD shows an early K/D crossover under the histogram. Does this suggest an impending hard Bullrun for XAUUSD? Please comment and offer your opinion. OANDA:XAUUSD
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by AwesomeAvani
Weekly Forecast Hello traders! Well, this is purely based on my Analytical view. USDJPY has been showing quite a hawkish moves in the few months, in regarding current market conditions and its fundamentals. In this chart, we can see a recent rate decrease due to the last CPI Report which came out thursday carried most of jpys pair in a downtrend pushing the EUR up by increasing rates which leads to reduce the Dollar Index in the fight against inflation. With the persective on the current word market jpy could still show a upfrend in coming weeks and eur could still fall as the recession fears soars. But for the weekly chart produced in this content we well stand by to see few rejections by the retracement areas and pushing by only if it succeeds to break off those barriers. Thanks.
Long
by Lavimystic
1
This ETF will predict the 2022 recession.Looking at the graph, we can see a very high-quality inverted head and shoulders pattern, because the second top made a way higher top than the first top. To add to that, the volume is decreasing rapidly, meaning we are very near the next bottom. This would be definitive for the ETF, because if this ETF increases in price, than the house prices would drop. This would cause a chain reaction, leading to a recession. That is why, on my last study, I said that the 2022 recession is closer than we think it is. A crisis is imminent, so be ready. AMEX:DRV
AMEX:DRVLong
by lorinstocksinvesting
3
Think like a PRO and trade at ANY markets🔥Hi friends! Do you want to know what zones I marked on the chart? Put 🚀 and read to the end. In this educational idea I will explain a few traders secrets that will help you stay profitable in any market for the long term. Take Bitcoin as an example and you'll be surprised how often the same mistake is repeated by beginners and understand how professional traders take advantage of it. 📊 But first, let's find out why the psychology of the crowd drives the market Fortunately for professional traders, human psychology has not changed in centuries. Bubbles in financial markets now appear just as they did before the Great Depression🔻in the early 20th century, when stocks rose by hundreds of percent in a month, and just as they did during the Tulip Fever🌷in the 17th century, when the price of tulips really soared to the moon due to the huge demand for the flower. 🚩 This shows the similarity in the thoughts of people in the 17th, 20th, 21st centuries. It is these faults in human psychology that allow the patterns in trading to work and professional traders to be profitable over the long term. Just don't tell anyone about it!) 📊 Why do people tend to panic during a fall and get greedy during a rise? The fact is that our brain tends to paint wishful thinking in our imagination. When a cryptocurrency is rising, the imagination thinks that the price will rise forever, and you get excited just thinking about the possible earning. And the happiness hormones just keep surging. The opposite is the situation with the fall. When markets fall, our brain tries to protect us from more losses and forces us to sell cryptocurrency. 📊 What help the big players to control the psychology of the crowd? Of course, it's the media. Remember when news of the US recession was at its peak and it seemed like a crisis was imminent. Just at the bottom of the market, when Bitcoin fell to $17k and the SnP500 to $361. I may surprise you, but in 2018, 2020 people had identical thoughts and all thought Bitcoin would fall to $1000. The crypto market can fall lower to 10-12k of course, but just interesting to know did any of my subscribers buy cryptocurrency back then or at 17-19k❓Write in the comments./b] 📊 What are the areas on the chart? I marked 2 areas: 🔥The 1st area (white) is the areawhere the majority of traders, especially newbies, want to buy cryptocurrency. I call this " Bitcoin will rise to 1 million" zone. 🔥The 2nd area (green) is the area where most traders sell the cryptocurrency they bought at a higher price. Most importantly, it is where most traders believe that the fall will continue even lower and do not buy, expecting a fall. I call this "Bitcoin will fall to zero" zone. ✅How can you use the psychology of the crowd to your advantage? I can tell you from my own example that a clear strategy and working with indicators helps me. For example DOM and Footprint, where I can see huge whale orders and open a trade in the same direction as a big player. A large order is a clear signal✅, not a psychological speculation because of the news. A few days ago I showed in one of my ideas how Bitcoin rebounded from a large whale order. Bitcoin then grow by 4-5% in just a few hours. I also use trading systems such as Greenwich or Pump Tracker to identify Bitcoin and altcoins bottoms and ATH. You can see ideas about them on TradingView and their live results✅ It may surprise you! 🏁Summary. This knowledges are usefull for any market: crypto, stocks, ForEx, bonds etc. Human psychology and thinking are the same, but each market has its own specifics. Perhaps I will talk about this in the next educational ideas. Friends, was the idea useful to you? Have you noticed such psychological zones? Do you agree with this idea or do you think Bitcoin will fall below $17k? Write in the comments. 💻Friends, press the "like"👍 button, write comments and share with your friends - it will be the best THANK YOU. P.S. Personally, I open an entry if the price shows it according to my strategy. Always do your analysis before making a trade.
Education
by Yuriy_Bishko
15
10-2 Curve Yield Inversion is foreshadowing recession AMEX:SPY FRED:T10Y2Y Here is my DD on why I think we will officially enter recession early 2023. Current situation is identical to 2000 tech bubble. Back then 10-2 curve yield inversion dropped to its lowest around Spring-Summer 2000. Then the official recession started Spring 2001. Market didn’t fully bottom until end of 2002/early 2003. Fast forward to 2022, we’ve just reached the lowest 10-2 curve yield inversion since 2000. Meaning a few months from now we will officially be in recession, either end of 2022 or early 2023. Which I suspect could last until early 2024. Since U.S election is scheduled for Fall 2024, Fed and politicians will have to prop the economy back up so they can use “economy recovering” for voting narratives which is what can trigger the next real bull trend. Conclusion: curve yield inversion has always been indicative of an upcoming recession, so the real bear market hasn’t even really begun yet. What we recently experience was most likely just a warmup👀
FRED:T10Y2Y
by TheRealWolfette
Oil markets and demand destruction.The Russia & Ukraine kerfuffle is opening a gap in supply and demand since February 24th with their invasion. G7 countries will have a common interest in bringing the conflict to a close as the effects begin to weigh on the economy more generally. Emerging markets can take advantage of the situation and build out their consumption infrastructure with cover of high prices. There is a 3.5-4.5 million barrel deficit in supply caused by the Ukraine war. Currently, this deficit is filled by SPR releases from the strategic stockpiles. Crack spreads are widening as demand changes for refined products. There is an 8-9% rise every year in energy consumption world wide due mostly to emerging markets. Market price signals at work. Supply is down rapidly so prices go up followed by demand going away due to high prices and demand destruction occurs either temporarily or long term. Due to sanctions, this particular demand destruction is probably more long-term. Simply put oil gets expensive so people drive less. Miles driven has been dropping for a long time with the rise of SUVs and dropped off a cliff with the pandemic before then recovering. There has been an 8% drop in gas sales in California due to electric cars. General demand destruction is starting to sink in but hasn't gotten a hold yet. Electric cars spreading creates permanent demand destruction thus long-term shorts on oil and gas based energy are good for both the investor and the planet. That being said recent shorts haven't been a good play as the price of oil likely remains elevated or flat through this recession due to the current geopolitical factors at play combined with the inflation narrative. If inflation comes down but remains elevated and supply picks up prices will neutralize and cancel out the forces before turning around completely like lumber. Emerging markets are still the greatest marginal consumer of oil and petroleum products. Such markets demand more energy every year for their growning and modernizing economies. China is currently seeing their transition away due to their malaca problem and has given themselves until 2030 to peak emissions with net-Zero in 2060. India is on the rise and needs to balance energy needs with geopolitical concerns such as an anti-China coalition with the west because something something the specter of communism. What else is new? Africa has just begun their transition to high energy needs along with South Amercia. Fundamental Bearish narratives emerging out of China are weighing on the market but having little effect quite yet. Flight numbers are way down for instance and the real estate kerfuffle continues. However the models were built to predict capitalism so they may not apply perfectly here. India continues to buy Russian crude due to need and that's got the west in a tizzy due to the aforementioned ghost of Christmas past. At least its oil and not their massive coal reserves. Oil might be the key to getting the FED to turn around due to the feedback loop between politicians and the reserve. The market seems to sense this relationship. Any bull thesis will rely on government incompetence on energy narratives. The squabble between political interests will only continue until we can quantify the externalities at play. Let's not rearange the deck chairs on the titanic and focus on the problem. The oil energy industry has lost money on long term investments for year's and finally made some due to the current unique political situation and the pandemic. Politicians need political support from environmentalists so they reasonably take profits from and industry causing externalities for the rest of us. Except for in the good old USA, as we like to ride our nukes into the ground like a bucking bronco thank you very much. Energy corporate profit haircuts accelerate the long term demand destruction which in this authors opinion is a good thing. short term we have elevated prices that will peak and drop as the recession narrative sinks in reinforcing the demand destruction reminding everyone why relying on gas prices at the pump might be a bad political strategy long term. Coming out of the recession the destruction might be permanent reductions in consumption in Europe combined with rising consumption in emerging markets canceling each other out. In short the bearish narrative on the wider market is currently driven by the energy narratives. The market is seeking a way to get the FED to print more free money. Oil prices remaining elevated causing a slow down in the market everyone can blame on a geo political kerfuffle in Ukraine and economic down turn in China, the ghost of christmas future that fits their various energy narratives looks like the current best candidate. Thus elevated crude prices will continue before collapsing with the market as recession becomes the narrative. Ride the short after the turn. All the best, see you on the moon.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by GreatScottTheMoon
Mid cap coins for the next bull run. Research!Trading mid-caps and low caps (aka sh!t coins) is only a good strategy in a bull run for BTC and ETH. But here are some notes on things to look into for the next bull run to keep yourself busy. Understand how they work and how they plan to provide value to make money. DO NOT BUY RIGHT NOW! RESEARCH! Curve finance ecosystem Ape coin (bitcoin of gaming crypto) ($20 target next bull run) Gala games (possible 10X $0.6 target) Vulcan forged (billion $ market cap w/ $45 target) Adshares (if they pull off what they're talking about = big IF) Seedify.fund (face of gaming IDOs) SuperFarm (Ellio trades) Verasity (might replace streaming has a cult following) Illuvium ($500 target in bull run fully diluted valuation is a problem) Microcap games (interesting) Wilder world ZooKeeper And then the bigger names: Kusama Solana Vs Polygon Vs Polkadot narrative Solana: Radium Polkadot:polkadex & polka starter The biggest return will come from coins that still have a strong narrative such as the metaverse but have experienced the biggest losses without dying. If you can see how these projects work and what makes them tick you'll be better positioned for the evolution of the metaverse narrative in the coming years. Right now is not the time to buy it's the time to sit on your hands with the majority in cash. Dry powder will become valuable as the market tanks further trying to convince the FED to print more money. Current moves feel like a bear market rally so yes if you need to scratch an itch it's an "in and out 20 min adventure" don't say I didn't warn you. Just my opinion but stay off the tracks for a little longer and jump on the train as it passes instead of getting run over Now is the time to learn. An hour a day just watching Krowns crypto cave or real vision finance will do wonders in a year if one is consistent. Avoid the blizzard and stay warm digging for the sunshine. Even if YouTube is all you got for now it'll do. Maybe pick up an Undoing Project by Michael Lewis book if you like micro or A People's History of the world by Chris Harman if you like macro. All the best, see you on the moon.
BITSTAMP:CRVUSD
by GreatScottTheMoon
Why the 2022 recession is about to happen:The graph you are seeing is about moments before Black Monday happened in 2008, and, as you can see, there was a clear 10% increase in price before Black Monday happened. That is what is happening right now. As soon as the USA reported that its inflation rate decreased 0.6% (9.1% - 8.5%), people became greedy and fomo bought stocks/etc. They thought the trend was going to reverse, but it was just a pullback. In 2008, shortly after the pullback, Black Monday struck and everything dropped. This might be a sign that means that we are way closer than we think to a recession (1 - 2 months left ). To add to that, the price dropped a few months before the 2008 recession as well.
TVC:SPXShort
by lorinstocksinvesting
5
Market participants are alert ahead of US inflation statisticsEUR/USD 🔽 GBP/USD 🔽 AUD/USD 🔽 USD/CAD 🔼 XAU 🔽 WTI 🔽 On a weekly basis, the American dollar continued to lose ground throughout the early part of the day, but gained some ground during the US session. The volatility of the market was rather low, despite persistent US inflation figures. According to the US Consumer Pricing Index, investors are expecting that the price pressures started to ease in July. However, the core annual reading is expected to increase from 5.9% to 6.1%. In the end, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy will be priced into the market rapidly by speculative interest. The Chinese and German inflation data will be released prior to the US inflation data. The EUR/USD pair came close to touching the 1.0250 level but lost about 50 pip before the closure. The news that Russia has stopped shipping oil through the southern Druzhba pipeline due to problems with transit payments weighed on the common currency. The UK government is preparing for organized electricity outages for businesses and homes this winter as a worst-case scenario due to the energy crisis plaguing Europe. Prior to the start of Asian trading, GBP/USD is trading at about 1.2060. By day's conclusion, commodity-linked currencies had depreciated against the dollar, though losses are small. While USD/CAD is centered at 1.2890, AUD/USD trades around 0.6950. One of the top performers was gold, which reached an intraday high of $1,800.49 per troy ounce. It was $1,795 at day's end. Although the day started with higher crude oil prices, it ended with only slight increases. The price of WTI is $90.70 per barrel. Following in the footsteps of its European counterparts, Wall Street dipped, albeit losses were restrained. On the other side, the 10-year note's yield, which is currently 2.79%, increased a fraction. #market #AUD #GBP #USD #DOLLARS #CAD #INVESTING #INVESTMENT #MITRADE #TRADING #PRICING #INDEX #INFLATION
by Mitrade_official