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$TLT: Preparing to buy when safeI am monitoring bonds here, as we are approaching the target of a weekly down trend signal that fired recently, while the monthly timeframe trend is about to reach its end. By the end of September, the odds of a reversal in bonds will be very high, while equities are looking like they could crash lower from here possibly, and we could get inflation to come down, likely due to the effect of recessionary forces at play thanks to Powell's hawkishness. Since the Federal Reserve is hell bent on killing inflation hiking rates, and the data they use won't make them worry about this course of action until it's likely too late, odds of something breaking badly here are substantial. As such, I'm eager to spot the bottom in $TLT / $ZROZ to invest. We have a decent enough juncture here, where it starts making sense to pay attention to reversal cues in multiple timeframes and monitor signals closely to go long big time when confirmed. Best of luck, Ivan Labrie.
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by IvanLabrie
Why the SP500 signals recession...Looking at the SP500 on the weekly view, it is clear to see that there is a downtrend, although I believe this is just the beginning of the drawdown. We can see that after it reached the high of 4800 in Jan22, it dropped to around 4200 before forming a small series of green candles of recovery. *This is a pattern we have seen multiple times in the past before a market collapse. Please scroll down further* After this initial 'drop 1' , we enter what I am calling 'drop 2', we have already seen a continued series of red candles which I believe to keep dropping massively - this isn't a hot take by any means, especially with many talking about the UK housing market bubble ready to pop, Putin talking of nuclear weapons, China potentially tipping into a recession from their housing market and finally with us just coming out of Covid.
SP:SPXShort
by HBSPG
Is The Crowd Ever Right? This article aims to address a question that seems to be burning at the back of many investors’ minds: Can the crowd be right? How can we enter a recession or depression when everyone seems to be thinking about it? But first, I’ll give a bit of background and some of my opinions on the current fundamentals of the cryptocurrency market, and why these opinions are in keeping with my general character. The Crowd's Market Choices and Economic Revolution As anyone who has been following me for the last few years will know, I’ve tended to embody a somewhat revolutionary mindset. I’m a hippie artist guy who finds dystopian realities disturbing, but also fascinating. At the same time, I’m also hopeful we will continue to evolve as a species and “figure our shit out.” That’s why I frequently talk about big tech collapsing and why I’ve even speculated about crypto as a promising new financial system. Particularly over the last two years, several observations have led me to become skeptical of something I once thought had some potential. In fact, it seems more and more that cryptocurrencies have become just another way for profiteers to generate income off people’s mere hope to obtain financial freedom. This seems pretty messed up, right? Cue Michael Saylor’s pseudo-radical, esoteric Tweets. Being a supporter of some cryptocurrencies has always given me a vague feeling of cognitive dissonance, and events of the last two years have revealed to me why that’s the case. Current implementation of cryptocurrencies just doesn’t align with my values. After all, I was a hippie artist guy long before I ever got into crypto or financial markets. I’m still entranced by the idea of a frictionless global currency that’s accessible, lightweight, and inclusive. This is why I feel more neutral to positive towards projects like Nano, Stellar, and now Algorand. One of the things I find interesting about crypto is that people are free to choose projects and protocols that fit their own economic vision. It’s a fascinating sociological case study into Internet communities and economic values. But I think this hyper-decentralization itself has become a downfall of the space. The projects that work the best as currencies have been left by the wayside, while the clunky, expensive, expansion-oriented projects garner most of the attention. In some ways, the growth of Ethereum, Bitcoin, and Binance Coin all represent the parallel growth in our society––a growth without real substance and meaningful positive change. And with clunky, bureaucratic infrastructure to boot, with lots of unnecessary fees and almost too many instances where one can slip up. In fact, American Neoliberal economics values the “pull yourself up by your bootstraps” mentality, which is why healthcare is not universal here, and why the social welfare system seems to entrap rather than empower. If you want evidence, read American Society: How it Really Works by Joel Rogers and Erik Olin Wright. “Being your own bank” is just the financialized version of “pick yourself up by your bootstraps”, so it’s in effect anti-revolutionary; it merely goes along with the Neoliberal policies of Nixon, Reagan and Clinton (I think these three are the biggest culprits). Crypto is very American, and is aligned with the policies of the American government since the early 1970’s. Therefore, developing countries adopting crypto seems to be more of a step closer to disaster than away from it. Much like socioeconomic policy in the U.S. It enforces individual responsibility in such a way that people don't have much to support themselves. It pretends to be revolutionary, when it is really oppressive and disempowering. I speak mostly of the United States, since this is where I live, and it’s the socioeconomic context I learned about in social work school. What I’m talking about here is also lasting output. You cannot say, with evidence, that Bitcoin or Ethereum has a net positive effect on access to resources, education, sound infrastructure, or financial efficiency. Sure, there are some places in the world where using Bitcoin for purchases makes more sense. These are places where everyday citizens experience absurd inflation and do not have easy access to banks or dollars. In this case, it serves a distinct purpose as a tool––essentially a last resort. It is a good thing to have last resorts, but I also wonder whether localities within these countries would simply just develop their own currency or bartering system. I wouldn’t be surprised if this were the case. In some ways, Bitcoin is even more obedient to the whims of the elite, since supply is easily accumulated by large wealthy entities over periods of time. If a small community in an inflation-stricken nation decides to use small pebbles as currency, they have more control over the rules than had they chosen to use Bitcoin. With Bitcoin, they’d be subject to numerous technological limits, portals, fees….and that’s just unnecessarily complex. This article wasn’t really meant to be about crypto and why I don’t particularly believe in its long-term durability. But my belief in its durability affects how I, as an “analyst” read the market. There seems to be a pervading assumption in markets that when everyone is talking about selling and fear is palpable, smart investors should really be buying. However, natural logical reasoning dictates that if a bunch of people simultaneously give up on something, the project will halt, and it won’t get finished. So why has the market tended to behave differently? Why can’t we just be allowed to give up on something that doesn’t work? We saw with 2008 that a bunch of banks in the U.S. could have completely failed, because they did not adequately serve the people with integrity. But…the government stepped in and bailed them out, instead of improving the system. This is unfortunately in line with the monetary policy that has snowballed into the current crisis. I believe the reason why the crowd always seems to be wrong is mostly a function of wealth inequality and exploitation within markets. This is because when the general public is excited about something, they are often late to the game, and they are already being actively exploited, whether they know it or not (early investors using the purchases of newcomers to generate profit). Then, once the bubble pops and prices bottom out, the everyday person has already sold because they cannot afford to see their assets decline any further. Then, the market runs out of sellers while the wealthy (and even the moderately privileged) can afford to continue adding to their balance sheets. What breaks this cycle? A debt reckoning and deflation. If one subscribes to the belief that markets naturally correct themselves to rebalance, and if one observes the pace at which inflation has exploded relative to stagnant wages since the '70's....then clearly there is an imbalance, although it is difficult right now to ascertain what effect this imbalance will have. What is always clear is that he process of a return to equilibrium after unsustainable growth is a painful one. Excess gets trimmed, and as the saying goes, you get to see who’s standing naked once the tide goes out. The ones in power feel the pain last because they’re standing deep in the water. There is also the pervading idea that markets only go up. Let’s take a look at the Japanese markets, which have not even breached their highs from the late 1980’s. This shows us it is possible for U.S. equities to enter a period of slower growth that lasts decades. Yes, decades. In this case, even though the crowd seems to be overwhelmingly bearish, they are secretly bullish––meaning they do not believe a recession would last longer than a couple years, at the very worst. In a way, the crowd actually still expects investing in equities and other assets to be a surefire play. And again, if we look at Japan––they have been experiencing an aging crisis. Many studies have recently shown that the same is about to hit the U.S., as the baby-boomer generation reaches old age while younger generations have less and less children. This is not an environment suitable for the kind of growth the market has seen since the 1970’s. The Crowd's Stance on Bitcoin Active addresses have not sustained meaningful growth since the 2015-2017 bull market. studio.glassnode.com In fact, the amount of active addresses has essentially stagnated. This leads me to believe that everyone who wanted to own Bitcoin has purchased some already, and it will be hard to get others to do so without enforcing it. But even with El Salvador and The Central African Republic adopting it as legal tender, addresses have grown minimally. The crowd seems to feel indifferently or negatively towards Bitcoin. To be fair, it’s gotten a lot of flak for its environmental impact. And this is warranted: If Bitcoin scaled to facilitate a quantity of transactions on par with the current financial system, it would be far more devastating. Does this mean Bitcoin’s growth is finished? Amongst the remaining Bitcoin bulls, I've noticed three major justifications for continued price appreciation: 1) Cycles. Bitcoin will definitely go up again because of its repetitive cycle behavior. *Wink Wink* Trust me bro, now is a great price. Anything under $20k is a good buy. 2) Negative funding – funding has been consistently negative for weeks and weeks while open interest remains stubbornly high. This means the crowd is shorting, and they will be squeezed. 3) The dollar will eventually become nearly worthless, since the FED will need to turn the money printer back on. Everything else is priced in. The history of currencies tells us fiat fails. 4) The crowd is bearish, so we should all be buying. Now, I’m going to address each of these points and explain why I think we should be careful with this logic. 1) This is making an assumption based on past behavior. Bitcoin has already deviated from this behavior by lingering near its previous cycle high without a meaningful bounce. Although the crowd is short-term bearish, it is still long term bullish. People are hopeful to purchase Bitcoin at $12k or lower, expecting another cycle eventually. 2) This is an interesting one. Exchanges generally want trading activity. They also want asset prices to move up, since it attracts new investors to their platforms. Funding has been extremely negative across the crypto market for much of this year, even as prices have continued lower. I recall ridiculously negative funding for LUNA right before the collapse, and recently extreme negative funding for ETH right before the merge. Usually, negative funding tells us that the market is biased to the short side. But is that really what it tells us? Or does it mean the exchange itself wants to make shorting more expensive, to make retail traders more likely to keep tight stops and close out positions early? These “forced” trades generate fees and income during a bearish period for the exchange. 3) The USD hasn’t been around for terribly long. Because it holds so much power internationally, it is unlikely to become worthless in the short term. In fact, its value goes up as the demand for debt decreases and the demand for cash increases, regardless of its supply. My opinion is that if the money printing and QE in the U.S. had gone into substantial projects (infrastructure, education, clean energy, etc.) we would have seen true growth, which could be sustained. It might have taken more time, but it would not result in bubbly market behavior requiring constant bailouts. Our systems would be more self-sustaining. Money spending isn’t a bad thing. It’s what we do with it that matters. 4) We have programmed fear responses for a reason. Animals will often sense an earthquake or hurricane well in advance, and escape to higher ground or a protected area. Just because everyone seems to be panicking or running away does not make disaster any less likely. As I’ve written above, it only seems to be that way because there are certain members of society who take advantage of the herd to generate liquidity and profit. Since this article has been fairly long, I’ll give a small TL; DR: The crowd is usually wrong because they’re being fleeced by someone with more power. A mass sell-off IS a revolution – action towards change. The crowd can be right, in a sense. The markets need to tumble significantly for new powers to establish and allocate resources mindfully. And I’ll leave with a couple of questions: Bitcoiners believe this bear market won’t last more than a couple of years, and certainly most believe Bitcoin will see another cycle. But then, most outside of crypto seem to not believe in it and find it unattractive, scammy, or even funny. By abstaining from crypto, people are exercising their freedom to choose. Will they be right, or is Bitcoin “inevitable?” As I've mentioned in some of my recent posts, Bitcoin needs to manifest an impressive 100+% rally in a pretty short timeframe in order to keep up with its long term trend, particularly against traditional assets. That required percentage keeps increasing every day. Ideally, Bitcoin needs to clear that $48k level marked on my chart and stay above. What could be a catalyst? This is not meant to be financial advice, but speculative and reflective opinions on current conditions. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making significant financial decisions. -Victor Cobra
BNC:BLXShort
by VictorCobra
14
Shorting BTC - Sell stop via futures.BTC is showing opportunities to execute risk-adjusted short positions through futures or DMA CFDs (avoid STP brokers). No matter if BTC bounces to the upside, we could also benefit from such situation, and we can place pending orders in order to take advantage of the most likely scenario on a quantitative and qualitative level: a mid-term downtrend. Operation: R/R ratio: 1/2.42 (risky) Risk mgmt: 0.65% of our portfolio risked. Wealth mgmt: We will average probably at 15 000 with the same R/R ratio. Timeline: 2-4 months. Exchange: OKX. Financial engineering: futures. Sell stop 1: 16 950. Stop loss 1: 19 800. Take profit 1: 10 050. Sell stop, stop loss, and take profit 2: We will check it in the future.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by blockmas
Something is going to break, DXY or SPX500 take your pick IIDecision time, eminent, could not stress it more, options: 1. The DXY topped, it will break down slowly but respecting a downwards path, like oil has done, in this case the SPX500 will break up. 2. Otherwise the SPX500 will break down and it will be in a massive recessionary 2008 move downwards, breaking the June lows and, a sign that something has gone sour in the street economy, but it has to be something big, it can also be another war, and trouble is coming in the next months/years
OANDA:SPX500USD
by awesomenewsforyou2
Recessions and the Flight to SafteyEven though the great recession was ongoing for almost a year prior to being dated by the NBER, it was the announcement itself that started the massive migration from stocks to bonds. The purple square encapsulates this time range. It is best to enter this position before an announcement, which some market participants did. At the current growth rate, we will be in a recession anywhere around October - January, after mass layoffs result in unemployment across the economy. The NBER has responded more quickly in dating the more recent COVID-19 2020 recession, which lasted only a few months and announced around four months after it started.
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by coinhoIio
1
How Governance Affects a Cryptocurrency's Coin Supply and PriceAs of last year, the top 3 most well-known coins - Bitcoin, Ethereum, Dogecoin - have all become "predictable" in terms of its coin supply. BTC has always had a fixed supply cap, ETH has become aggressively deflationary after its EIP-1559 upgrade started "burning" its supply, and Dogecoin is technically "disinflationary" since the rate at which the protocol issues its coins is set to slow down gradually over time. (People have estimated ~5% going downwards to 1% or less over the course of many years.) What all 3 coins have in common: 1) the supply curves for these coins are fixed and predictable 2) political leverage correlates directly with the ownership of money itself 3) the economic trajectories of each coin are basically unchangeable without some sort of centralized control Bitcoin and Dogecoin's protocol decisions are handled by the mining community (they decide which blocks to continue mining, in case there is a disagreement), and now that Ethereum has moved over to proof-of-stake, most of its major decisions will be decided by the core team itself. With proof-of-work, hash power is political leverage, with proof-of-stake, the coins itself does the same. While maxis focus on the differences between the two, at the end of the day, leverage over the system is measured in terms of how much resources you're willing to spend on your particular "vote" - it just depends on which you prefer - hash-power, or money-power. To be fair, this is how most coins operate right now since it is currently not possible to reliably do a "one person one vote" model (as is typically done in developed democracies) since identifying an anonymous wallet as a "person" is extremely difficult. So as a lesser evil, we use money-invested (aka your "stake") as means of measuring how much influence one should have on an ecosystem as a whole. (In this regard, most cryptocurrencies are similar to corporate shareholder models.) Until we have a better way of identifying people online as being "real", we're likely to be stuck with this model for a while, but not all coin systems are created equal - some will probably have better long-term viability than others. And a lot of that will be determined by how each coin handles its governance procedures. Proof-of-work systems right now have no means of reliably doing voting/governance on-chain - as a result, most coins opt to do their voting through third-party systems or platforms. While this can sometimes work, there is no "receipt" of whether the tally was legitimate or not - you just have to trust that the people conducting the polls were doing it in good faith. BTC/DOGE has never had on-chain governance and likely never will, while ETH currently possesses the potential to do, but seems unlikely now that it has also become deflationary. The "fixed supply" argument is similar to the "buy gold" argument in that there is an inherent distrust of supply curves that are "flexible" - the idea that when there is less of something it's going to be worth more is an intuitive argument that makes sense to a lot of people, at least on the surface. But ideally, you want the price of a coin to go up because there's more demand for it, rather than inflating it artificially by burning your supply - the less there is of something, the more out of reach it becomes for newcomers and people will less money, after all. So when a project puts "fixed supply" as part of its core value proposition, it's basically prioritizing the short-term appeasement of existing holders at the expense of future growth. We see a similar type of scarcity mindset (the "I got mine" syndrome) in assets like real-estate and gold as well, which are also both about to face corrections of their own. An asset starts to "bubble" when prices increase but quality goes down - then "pops" when the demand for it bottoms out as people realize that it's not worth it. Ideally, you want the economy to be flexible enough to handle swings in demand/usage, while keeping incentives aligned between all parties (investors, validators, users) at all times. It requires a very careful balancing act that exists somewhere in between fixed and infinite supply - and even better if these decisions are made through consensus mechanism rather than a unilateral decision made behind closed doors. (Tezos' self-amending protocol, combined with its on-chain governance system stands out as unique in this regard.) -- So what to do if you're an existing HODLer? Well, short to medium term, coins like Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Dogecoin will probably maintain their price as long as people come see it as a viable alternative to traditional assets as we get further into the recession -- that's the big bet that many are taking right now. But it does come with the understanding that it's probably only likely to happen once or twice more before the market saturates completely and hits its peak. Here crypto is at a disadvantage compared to assets like real-estate or tangible goods, since there's nothing forcing people to use BTC/ETH in particular - there are many other options in the market, after all. For more discussions about coin supply issues, here: www.reddit.com
COINBASE:XTZUSDEducation
by RyanTanaka
SPY Analysis - Sep22 month end below 370SPY to extend downtrend and is tracking to below 370 levels by Sep22 month-end DYOR; this is a point of view as I dislike the hedging of both bull/bear narratives - e.g., bulls have a "chance" to hold and 75bps "may" already be priced in AMEX:SPY Chart : Downward channels (yellow) have rejected 410 resistance/SZ (purple) Prediction (blue bars) mirrors Aug16th - Sep7th range into the future (post-Sep16) = prediction to sub-362 level (med to low likelihood) and at least below 370 (high likelihood) The aforementioned prediction tracks well to yellow channel from Aug7th high and also in range to traditional Jun high yellow channel Fear/Greed index is 36 and tracking downwards to at least early July lows Notes: Participation: 9/19 Low | 9/21 Moderate re: FOMC | 9/23 Moderate | 9/26 Low | 9/28 Low Participation: 9/30 Very high ; Levels: 390 ++ / 385 +++ / 370 +++ / 350 ++ Key level on SPX: If it breaks below 3588 - it is going lower -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Action : SPY Puts @370 Sep30 expiry ( ~2X ROI ) or put spread 370/365 for more risk (4X+ ROI) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -Welcome feedback and comments!
AMEX:SPYShort
by hprabhala1
$SPX downhill without brakesFear inside Wall Street The CNN Business Fear & Greed Index, which measures seven gauges of market sentiment, is once again showing signs of Fear on Tuesday as the broader market plunged. The VIX, a volatility index that is one of the seven components of the Fear & Greed Index, shot up nearly 8%. The Fear & Greed index was in Fear mode a week ago as well but it had recently moved back into Neutral territory following a 4-day winning streak for stocks. That streak is coming to a spectacular end thanks to the hotter than hoped for consumer price index report, as investors worry that the Federal Reserve is going to raise rates even more aggressively next week to fight persistent inflationary trends. Wall Street's mood has largely tracked the rapidly changing expectations regarding inflation and rate hikes. Just a month ago, before Fed chair Jerome Powell gave a speech that suggested more big rate increases were coming, the Fear & Greed Index was indicating levels of Greed, a sign of complacency.
SP:SPX
by icheeetah
Shorting BTC againIn our last Bitcoin analysis with our TTW (trend-time-weight) system, we clearly positioned our portfolios for a very likely steady decline in the value of BTC with a target of $20K. Now that we are here, BTC is in a stage 4 (bearish), entering the 210 MA average on the weekly chart (the reference for a bearish market in the mid and long run). Under no circumstances should we find buying opportunities right now if an active trading approach is implemented, only if a passive approach is sought. Since early summer, BTC has been at a support which, if breached to the downside, the token could reach $11K-$9K levels. The RSI on the weekly chart is clearly bearish, at minus 34, and the MACD is clearly showing a downtrend that we could take advantage of with a quantitative trend-following strategy. The probability of a trend reversal is actually very small in percentage terms, because the trend should first go through a stage 1, and then stage 2, but now it is still in stage 4, and it is quite a long way off (6-12 months, at least). In terms of all our chartist, space-temporal, fundamental, economic and manipulative analysis, the most likely scenario is a downtrend to around $11,000 in the next few months. Of course, we never know the future, and we are also prepared for a bullish pullback even if it is a very unlikely scenario, but professionally I would not see BTC as an interesting buy until the token reaches a value of around $30 000. Strategy: - Sell Stop: 16.500. - 1st Stop Loss (0.25% of our portfolio value): 20.100. - 2nd Stop Loss (0.5% of the value of our portfolio): 22.000 - 1st Take Profit (50% out): 11.000 - 2nd Take Profit (50% out): 9.000 - Margin requirements, swaps, spreads, execution model..: Depending on the derivatives exchange you use.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by blockmas
The USD has strength - The currency for long-term liquidityThe USD has shown and is showing a lot of strength in the markets over the last 12-16 months while the economy maintains growing risk of a global correction/systemic collapse. The USD is decorrelated from the Euro, Pound Sterling or Swiss Franc, to name a few of the suffering European currencies, having lost over 20% of its value in the last 12-16 months, without counting inflationary costs. In other words, holding long-term bearish currencies is not smart for any company, government, or institutional fund, without worrying about short-term fluctuations. We never know the future nor should we aspire to know it too accurately, but, from a quantitative trend-following perspective and applying the right risk and wealth management tools, most companies' cash and our cash will be safer in USD than in their uncorrelated currencies in the coming months/years. I am moving at least 60% of my fiat liquidity into USD, regardless of short term volatilities, because the fundamentals, economic and technicals are on our side. Take a look at that +75 RSI on the monthly chart, which shows a fairly strong and consolidating trend, as well as the MACD in clear uptrend. I expect the USD to correct in the short term and touch the 0.95 support/resistance that has been active for over 10 years, but for long term cash management, if you are not leveraged, I would not believe in any currency other than the international one. Strategy (spot cash, unleveraged): - Entry: anytime above 0.95. - Stop Losses: None. We are managing liquid cash from our funds. - Take Profit: None. We are managing cash. - Hedging: We could hedge the EURUSD currency pair at a DMA, A book OTC brokerage firm such as IG, Saxo, or CMC, or with futures/options, but it is not of my interest at this time.
Long
by blockmas
Huge Recession WarningWith the 2022 recession ever coming closer, more hints that it’s nearing appear. One of those hints include this graph, which shows the 1 year bond surpassing the 4% mark, and it’s more than any other bond. For the first time in more than 15 years, the 1 year bond surpasses 4%. The yield curve has been inverted for more than 1 month, and it’s still inverted. At any point Black Monday can happen and crash the market. I believe the recession that is about to happen will be worse than even the 2008 recession. It’s more of a depression, not a recession. The 1 year bond didn’t reach as high back then before the recession. TVC:US01Y SP:SPX
TVC:US01YShort
by lorinstocksinvesting
2
Selling coming in hot!MoM economic reports are beginning to show very meager results. Optimism is slowly fading out, and we're starting to have more bears in the market. Impact from interest rate hikes will take a while to show. Middle and lower income are feeling the pinch, but the market has been more resilient as we have learnt from history. The retail stock market hasn't come to a point where they need to liquidate for their livelihood or they can't take the pain from buying the bear rally. Whatever it is, we do see multiple bear rallies on the lower time frame. Zooming out, we are still in that downtrend, and rightfully so. Strong resistance become support @ 3900 is being re-tested for the 3rd time. Will it hold and close the week above support? Calling for sells on break and re-test of 3900, if it fails to break back above the key price zone of strong support/resistance.
OANDA:SPX500USD
by geneAnalytics
How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Long the Treasury MarketHave you ever been told that stocks only go up? How about not trying to time the market? If you have, you might just be the exit liquidity the credit market needs. In this chart I will help you avoid losing money in the next two quarters by rolling your portfolio into cash and the treasury market. If you have followed the last few charts, you are already sitting in a cash portfolio as we head into a disinflationary period. That's right, inflation has already peaked even though the credit market is pricing in a potential 100 basis point hike this month. What isn't being priced in is the recession coming around q4 or q1. This is an opportunity for you to roll some cash into the treasury market and make some gains on top of not losing money. You may have heard something like "the treasury market is broken bro". This is from people that don't understand the dynamics of the treasury market. The treasury instruments do not perform well when interests rates are going up, but the up and coming recession will sharply slice inflation in a very short period of time. This will result in a fed pause. This isn't priced in yet because interest expectations are too high to account for a rapid recessionary disinflation. Look at how quickly TLT started to make gains after the fed stimulated the economy during the pandemic. This is the ideal time to start a DCA into the treasury market because the credit market is still struggling to come to terms with the fact that a soft landing isn't going to happen. When they do, the treasuries will pump in anticipation of a fed pause or even a pivot. I don't think a pivot will happen without a pause, but the credit market, being the pack of wild dogs they are, will conflate the two. This is a trade that might have a very small bit of downside to it at first because of a potential basis point increase, so if you can't handle that, a DCA over the next month or two is best.
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by coinhoIio