SPY JULY 1 2024SPY needs to go up. If it closes below DDZ demand zone box, then your SL has been defined and we are aiming for $556+ soon.
If you have any questions feel free to ask.
QQQ
Plan Your Trade 7-1-24 - Get Ready For A Rally.This continuation of my Plan Your Trade video series highlights the potential price rotation we'll see today with the big CRUSH pattern. Next week, I believe, will result in a substantial rally phase throughout the week of July 4th.
Today's counter-trend rally pattern will likely result in an early trading rotation, leading to an upward price trend that will build momentum throughout the week. Remember, we have a holiday on Thursday that may pause the rally a bit late Wednesday.
This new swing into a Rally-Rally-Rally phase with the SPY Cycle Patterns is fantastic for day traders and intraday swing trading.
Watch the video today and prepare for the big moves this week. Overall, nothing has changed. Price is rotating into a rally phase ahead of Q2:2024 earnings.
Learn how my SPY Cycle Patterns can help you plan and prepare for market direction and trends.
Do you know anyone who can accurately predict price setups/trends 2 to 4 weeks into the future? Well, you are watching me do it right now.
Let me know what you think in the comments.
Go make some money today.
$TLT Breaking Four Year Downtrend?Looks to me that NASDAQ:TLT may be finally breaking a downtrend (Interest Rates Reversing Lower?). It is too early to tell for sure but it is an interesting development.
This could be a double edge sword. Rates coming down may be good for stocks short term but longer term it may well mean the bond markets are starting to see a recession ahead. That would not be good for equities.
This is may develop into a trade. All TBD.
Plan Your Trade 6-28 - Today Is The Big CRUSH DayThis continuation of my Plan Your Trade video series highlights the potential price rotation we'll see today with the big CRUSH pattern. Next week, I believe, will result in a substantial rally phase throughout the week of July 4th.
Today's big CRUSH pattern will likely result in a fairly deep downward price move in early trading, followed by a period of basing/stalling before we may see a fairly strong rally phase/squeeze into the end of trading today.
These types of price swings are fantastic for day traders and intraday swing trading.
Watch the video today and prepare for next week. Overall, nothing has changed. Price is rotating into a rally phase ahead of Q2:2024 earnings.
Learn how my SPY Cycle Patterns can help you plan and prepare for market direction and trends.
Do you know anyone who can accurately predict price setups/trends 2 to 4 weeks into the future? Well, you are watching me do it right now.
Let me know what you think in the comments.
Go make some money today.
Plan Your Trade - 6-27-24 : SPY & QQQ ExpectationsThis continuation of my Plan Your Trade video series highlights the potential price rotation we'll see over the next two days, leading to what I believe will be a substantial rally phase throughout the week of July 4th.
The next two days will likely represent some huge price swings - first upward, then downward on Friday.
These types of price swings are fantastic for day traders and intraday swing trading.
Learn how my SPY Cycle Patterns can help you plan and prepare for market direction and trends.
Do you know anyone who can accurately predict price setups/trends 2 to 4 weeks into the future? Well, you are watching me do it right now.
Let me know what you think in the comments.
Go make some money today.
Nasdaq is gonna crash in the next two weeks! SAME PATTERN!CAUTION: AWESOME OPTIONS PLAYS AT THE END OF THE POST! NFA ;-)
Look at this weekly chart and don't tell me that this is a repeating fractal!? The same color trend lines are almost the same length to a T. The upper trend line channels are gonna be the same distance, which extrapolates this going south for a very long time. (check out my AMEX:SILJ thread to show the repeating fractal line up)
Now of course these lines aren't gonna be what happens, you can see there was some out of the ordinary channel reactions on the downtrend last time.
I personally think that Biden is gonna mess up the debate, then pardon his son and leave the presidency while Kamala will tap Hillary Clinton as VP (via Ford Agnew redux) and then pardon Biden for any crimes done in office or out of office.
The markets will melt down, the FED will cut rates, maybe by 250 basis points since they keep going larger with their reactions to contain the ponzi scheme.
I'd buy puts right now, 400 December Puts for 4.10, sell them for 5x for a nice Christmas/New Year's present.
OR you can go the supersize route and buy puts on TQQQ for 42$ for the $25 strike price (it'll go lower imo) for a 25x return, if the price goes down to $15, that's around a 4200% return!! NFA ;-)
Also this shows the road forward, via a Livermore Accumulation Pattern. So we go very UP for the long term.
Members Daily Analysis JuneMU obliterated on eanrings...so far (pre call)
IWM weak on the session.
Markers saved on TSLA / AAPL / MSFT strength.
Dollar and Long end yields breakout.
Inversion of the yield curve about to narrow?
QQQ: Key Levels and Potential Scenarios (D&W charts).Daily Chart:
On the daily chart, QQQ has recently hit an all-time high of 486.86, marking a significant resistance level. This milestone suggests a bullish momentum, but it's essential to watch how the price behaves around this level.
There's also a noticeable gap at 468.14, which often acts as a magnet for price action, serving either as support or resistance. Currently, the price is hovering around the 473.82 support level, which, if maintained, could signal continued bullish momentum.
Additionally, the 21-day EMA is another critical support level; staying above it would further validate the uptrend. Should the price break above the all-time high, we could see new peaks. Conversely, losing support at 473.82 might lead to a sharper pullback, potentially down to 460.58 or even 449.34.
Weekly Chart:
Looking at the weekly chart, a shooting star pattern has emerged, typically a bearish signal suggesting a potential reversal. This pattern indicates that despite reaching new highs, there was significant selling pressure, hinting at a possible decline.
The 21-week EMA, however, shows that the longer-term trend remains bullish as the price is still well above this level. If the price confirms the shooting star by dropping in the following weeks, it might signal a deeper correction.
Maintaining above the 21-week EMA would still suggest a strong underlying bullish trend, despite short-term bearish signals.
Conclusion:
In conclusion, while the QQQ shows strong bullish signals, indicated by new all-time highs and support levels on the daily chart, the shooting star pattern on the weekly chart warrants caution.
If the price holds above 473.82 and the 21-day EMA, the bullish trend is likely to continue with potential for new highs. However, if these supports fail, we might see a correction down to the gap at 468.14 or lower. Overall, monitoring these key levels will be crucial in determining whether the QQQ continues its upward trajectory or enters a period of correction.
For more detailed technical analyses and insights like this, be sure to follow my account. Your support helps me continue providing valuable content to help you make informed trading decisions.
Remember, real trading is reactive, not predictive, so let's stay focused on the key points described above and only trade when there is confirmation.
“To anticipate the market is to gamble. To be patient and react only when the market gives the signal is to speculate.” — Jesse Lauriston Livermore
All the best,
Nathan.
Correction: Counter Trend Break Away Pattern on 6-26This is a correction video representing the Counter-Trend mode of today's BreakAway pattern.
I created the first video thinking this was a Trending pattern.
Counter-trend patterns tend to reflect a reversal of price direction related to the last 3~5 days price trend.
In this video, I go over how I view Counter-Trend patterns vs. Trend/Carryover patterns.
Look for initial weakness in price followed by what I believe will be a strong rally phase this afternoon.
Here we go...
Plan Your Trade 6-26 - SPY BreakAway PatternGood Morning.
This continued video series highlighting my Proprietary SPY Cycle Patterns is designed to help you understand how to prepare for, and trade expected market trends.
The SPY Cycle Patterns are predictive. They represent shapes/trends of future price bars on the SPY that can help traders understand where opportunities may exist for trading. They can also help you stay away from consolidation/congestion periods.
In today's video, I highlight how the current BreakAway pattern in Trending mode suggests the SPY will rally a bit today. I expect the SPY to close above 545.50-546.50 as the bullish base/support level holds today.
There is a bit of downward pressure on the SPY this morning. It will be interesting to see if my expectations are accurate or not.
Remember, the SPY Cycle Patterns are not 100% accurate all the time. They are only about 80-85% accurate in most cases. Big news events or outside factors can drive prices in ways that do not align with my SPY Cycle Patterns.
However, these SPY Cycle Patterns are generally very accurate in terms of how to plan/prepare for trading opportunities 3 to 10+ days into the future.
I hope you enjoy it. Please leave a comment and tell me if you see value in these videos or what you think.
2024-06-25 - priceactiontds - daily update - nasdaqGood Evening and I hope you are well.
nasdaq e-mini futures
comment: Bulls got their expected pullback but on the daily it’s an inside bar. We are in a trading range and the market is probing for the fair price currently. Bulls want back to the highs again and bears want a second leg down to test the big bull trend line 19500ish. I expect more sideways price action tomorrow because I don’t think bears want bulls to get above 20000 before a second leg down. Above 20050 I’m wrong and we will probably get a retest above 20200 before another leg down.
current market cycle: Max bullishness & peak bubble territory. Literally the peakiest of the peaks. Mother of all bubbles. Will end over the next weeks. —unchanged
key levels: 19700 - 20100
bull case: Daily inside bar for the bulls, which means trading range. The buying today was reasonably strong that bulls will try for 20000 tomorrow and if they can get above 20060ish, most bears will probably give up. Current small bull trend line from 19725 has to hold though.
Invalidation is below 19830.
bear case: Bears shorted new highs and despite the 1% gain, market was two sided. Bears also kept it below 20000 which is the obvious price that both sides will fight for. Bears would need to break the bull trend line from 19725 by either breaking below or sideways out of it. Since bulls are again in massive BTFD mode, sideways will probably the best bears can get tomorrow. If they fail at 20k, I don’t think they will fight for 20080 much harder and they could give up for a quick melt to 20200+ again.
Invalidation is above 20080.
short term: Neutral 19900-20000, bearish below, bullish above
medium-long term: This climactic blow off top was the grand finale of this bull trend. Perfect break above multiple patterns which I expect is a bull trap and we will test the various support lines next before the new bear trend will unfold over the next 3-9 months.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Buying the double bottom bar 16 + 4. Bar 4 was a huge huge bar and you had to get long there.
$BITO Bitcoin ETF – Cup with Handle Formation?AMEX:BITO is a in a massive Cup w/Handle Formation. I was just going through weekly charts in sector ETFs, and this just popped right out to me. I do not have much to say about this except that these types of formations often lead to upside breakouts. Having said that I have an alert set on the upper downtrend line. Should that trigger, I will go to a lower timeframe chart to look for a low-risk entry where I can define my risk. Hope this helps.
The chart I am using is the All-In-One LevelUp tool available here on TV. Check it out.
Ideas, not investing / trading advice. Comments always welcome. Thanks for looking.
NVDA ContinuationNVDA is giving a blue continuation signal after 3 days of sharp selling. It may need more time to flag, but the risk/reward favors the upside.
QQQ What Next? SELL!
My dear subscribers,
This is my opinion on the QQQ next move:
The instrument tests an important psychological level 480.05
Bias - Bearish
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend gives a precise Bearish signal, while Pivot Point HL predicts price changes and potential reversals in the market.
Target - 463.65
My Stop Loss - 489.72
About Used Indicators:
On the subsequent day, trading above the pivot point is thought to indicate ongoing bullish sentiment, while trading below the pivot point indicates bearish sentiment.
———————————
WISH YOU ALL LUCK
Plan Your Trade 6-25-24 - Base Rally DayThis video continues my series on planning your trade around my SPY Cycle Patterns. Today is a Base Rally pattern. I suspect the price will attempt to climb above $544 and may attempt to rally above $550 over the next few days.
This is an excellent opportunity for traders to swing for the fences with long trades.
Time your entry. If the price fails to rally above $544 in early trading, we may see a strong rally later this afternoon.
Tomorrow is a Breakaway pattern in counter-trend mode. I suspect we'll see a bit of a downward price swing tomorrow after today's strong rally. Then, another push to try to rally above $550 on Thursday.
Plan your trade. Learn how I can help you stay ahead of these bigger price swings.
Plan Your Trade 6/24/24 - Prepare For Rolling Price ActionThis continued video series focused on my SPY Cycle Patterns teaches you how to plan for future price swings and bigger trending days.
Today, I expect the SPY to stay relatively muted in trend—possibly moving downward overall. The Up-Down-Up (countertrend) pattern suggests that the price will want to move downward today, perhaps setting up support near $541.50 to $542.50.
I don't expect anything big to happen today as today's pattern is followed by three days of an upward price trend. That upward trend is your opportunity for profits.
Tuesday, Wednesday, & Thursday look like a bigger opportunity for long trades than Monday or Friday.
Friday's CRUSH pattern suggests a fairly strong downward price trend. I would be cautious of taking long positions on Friday until possibly the last 60-120 min of the day (if we see a short squeeze setup).
Please use this information efficiently. I'm trying to show you how to use my SPY Cycle Patterns to plan your trading and find the best opportunities.
I will have more info tomorrow as I continue this video series.
$NVDA $90 , THEN $75 BY NOVEMBERHere is the 10D chart on NVDA from an example that lead to an approximate 40% decline. We are currently at the same point on the chart in modern day time. Proceed with Caution. Refer to next post.
Members Daily Analysis - June 23 2024QQQ & Semis hit hard on the downside.
Topping signal on NVDA...watch for a retrace upward.
IWM small caps showed strength on Friday, possible continuation tomorrow.
Oil bulls need to hold $80
DXY looking for $106 / This could be an equity sell signal.
QQQ Thursday Gap Up ReversalShort-term & small sample, but an interesting pattern nonetheless...
If we look back at similar events to Thursday's action, they've all been short-term tops in the market. We're looking at: (1) Gap up open on a Thursday; (2) Bearish reversal closing near the lows of the day; (3) Increased Volume from the prior day(s); (4) Preceded by a good run in the market.
I think it's worth noting, although I'm not sure the market dynamic behind it, that these recent short-term tops have all occurred on a Thursday. So seeing similar-type action this past Thursday is sending up a short-term cautionary signal, especially after such a strong runup over the last few weeks. I want to emphasize 'short-term' though, because the long-term trend is still very much in tact. It may also be worth noting the lack of breadth under the hood as an additional short-term cautionary sign, although there are certain areas and groups that have been participating... it's been very much a stock picker's type of environment.
QQQ: Market of Sellers
It is essential that we apply multitimeframe technical analysis and there is no better example of why that is the case than the current QQQ chart which, if analyzed properly, clearly points in the downward direction.
❤️ Please, support our work with like & comment! ❤️
June 20th Members Daily AnalysisMarkets saw some selling...QQQ finally lagged!
NVVDA almost 8% reversal range. Bearish engulfing
SOXX absolutely bludgeoned.
Oil ripping / NYSE:XOM monster profits.
AAPL PUT / PROFITS SECURED.
2024-06-17 - a weekly price action market recap and outlook - nqGood Evening and I hope you are well.
Nasdaq. 20000. What else can you say. The AI bubble will be in the history books and Michael Lewis will write a book about the insanity that’s going on. I sincerely hope they bring the exact cast back from the big short. You can quote me on this one. Over the next months, you will read about companies cutting back on spending, especially on AI since it’s expensive af and not bringing in any money. Nvidia will probably be halved somewhere in 2025/2026 so stock should hit around 65ish. Monthly ema is at 60. I looked that up after I wrote the halving part.
comment: Let’s review this weekly painting, now that we finally reached 20000. All bullish targets are met, the upper bull channel is broken and I expect this to be a bull trap rather than a breakout above with follow through. If nq trades above 20100, I am obviously wrong. Last two times we reached new highs we sold off for a couple of weeks and this is what I expect this time as well. Market will most likely pull back from here and then retest the ath again before we trade back to the smaller bull channel around 18500 or lower.
current market cycle: 20000. Get a tattoo of that.
key levels: 18000 - 20000
bull case: Bulls outdid themselves on this one. One for the history books. Can they get higher? Sure but I doubt it. Have nothing for them in this section. Move on.
Invalidation is below 19000.
bear case: Let’s see if they appear tomorrow. We should see a decent pullback to at least 19500 over the next days, follow by a retest of the ath, which should fail. A bigger two-legged correction should get us down to 18500 over the next days/weeks. On the bigger time frame all my bullish targets are met and all wave series ended between 19000 and 20000. Got nothing for the bulls here.
Invalidation is above 20100.
short term: Who buy’s this above 20000? Let’s see tomorrow. If they actually do, no idea where it can go. I expect a pullback to 19500 and the daily 20ema.
medium-long term: This climactic blow off top was the grand finale of this bull trend. Perfect break above multiple patterns which I expect is a bull trap and we will test the various support lines next before the new bear trend will unfold over the next 3-9 months.
current swing trade: Short 20000 until bulls manage to break 20100 or big profits. I will take profits and add to this position along the way.
Chart update: This is my best guess on how the next 3-9 months will play out. Gave all the reasons above.
Opened (IRA): QQQ August 16th 420 Monied Covered Call... for a 411.80 debit.
Comments: (Late Post). Sold the -75 call against a one lot to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with built-in short call defense.
Metrics:
Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 411.80
Max Profit: 8.20 ($820)
ROC at Max: 1.99%
ROC at 50% Max: 1.00%
Will generally look to take profit at 50% max on the entire setup (stock + short call) as a unit, but won't hesitate to roll out the short call if in profit to keep my break even at or near where the underlying is currently trading.
