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QQQ

QQQ Completed a Cycle Expecting to Resume the RallyShort Term Elliott Wave in QQQ suggests that the ETF has completed a bearish sequence from 7.11.2024 high. The decline made a zig zag Elliott Wave structure. Down from 7.11.2024 high, wave (A) ended at 455.63 low. Rally in wave (B) ended at 475.61 with internal subdivision as a expanded flat structure. Up from wave (A), wave A ended at 467.94 and wave B ended at 452.31. Wave C higher ended at 475.61 which completed wave (B) in higher degree. Then, QQQ turned lower in wave (C) with internal subdivision as an impulse structure. Down from wave (B), wave 1 ended at 444.47 and wave 2 ended at 450.49. Wave 3 lower ended at 426.59 and wave 4 ended at 436.17. Final leg wave 5 ended at 420.00 which completed wave (C) and ((4)) in higher degree. The current rally is in progress expecting to continue higher as wave ((5)). Near term, we are calling a leading diagonal as wave 1 of (1) of ((5)). This wave 1 ended at 447.07 high. Now, we are expecting to correct the cycle as wave 2 before resuming to the update in wave 3. The view is valid as price action stays above 420.00 low.
NASDAQ:QQQ
by Elliottwave-Forecast
1
Black Monday 2024? Discussing Current Markets and PositionsDuring Monday's open, I said this is going to be a day for the history books. Volatility expanded nearly 200% on the day (over 300% in a 3 day period), the Nikkei 225 crashed over 12% in a single day and had the largest 2 day decline ever. It leaked into the US markets with a nasty bearish futures run and massive gaps lower. Fortunately Monday's trading didn't make things much worse, but the damage was already done for many with that dramatic vol expansion. As the dust settles a bit more into Tuesday's trading, I wanted to review everything. Enjoy!!!
NASDAQ:NDX
by ChrisPulver
Developing Success With PineScript : Building Trigger MechanismsIn my ongoing quest to build better tools for traders, I continue to develop new quantitative trigger logic to improve the working versions I have already created. Trigger logic is complicated for most people because they fail to take the time to "focus on failure." Everyone builds trading systems focused on where the triggers work perfectly (trust me - I've seen/built a few hundred of them). But the most important thing to focus on is where it fails to generate a decent trigger and how you are going to filter it out or protect capital when that failed trigger hits. In this example, I highlight my new "Gun-Slinger" triggers and how my continued development is creating more advanced trading tools for skilled traders. I hope you enjoy it. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
NASDAQ:NVDAEducation
by BradMatheny
Is This the Start of a Recession? Why You Shouldn’t PanicMarkets have been selling off amid the latest fears of a recession, with the NASDAQ dropping over 10% and Bitcoin dropping over 20% in just a matter of days. Last Friday’s unemployment report further affirmed investors’ sentiment, exceeding expectations by 0.2% and sparking one of the biggest rotations of capital since the COVID crash. Investors are gearing up for tough times by flocking to bonds and panic-selling risky assets, but has a recession really begun? Should you panic? Understanding the Economic Data Recent unemployment numbers have triggered the Sahm Rule Recession Indicator, created by Claudia Sahm in 2019 to identify recessions as they start. This indicator is triggered when the three-month simple moving average (SMA) of the US unemployment rate rises by 0.5% above the lowest rate observed over the past year. Despite its growing popularity, it’s important to note that this tool has never actually identified any recessions in real time, except for the 2020 recession. In contrast, more established indicators like the Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities, developed by Marcelle Chauvet and James Hamilton in 1998, have not indicated that the economy is currently in a recession. Unlike the Sahm Rule, this nearly 26-year-old tool, which relies on complex calculations and various datasets, accurately identified the 2001 and 2008 recessions in real time. Moreover, recessions in the US typically occur when the US Composite Leading Indicator (CLI) is on a downward trend, which hasn’t happened yet. This further suggests that other indicators besides the unemployment rate aren’t currently showing signs of concern. Even though the unemployment rate has risen sharply, other leading unemployment indicators, such as initial claims and continued claims, remain at historically low levels. Typically, these leading indicators rise sharply before a substantial increase in the unemployment rate, not the other way around. With the market pricing in substantial rate cuts following the unemployment numbers, yields have dropped, increasing the spread between the short and long ends of the yield curve. Historically, recessions haven’t usually unfolded during inverted yield curves. Additionally, expected looser monetary policy from the Fed combined with surprisingly tighter monetary policy from the BOJ pushed the DXY substantially lower. This resulted in a breakout in global liquidity, which is inversely correlated with the DXY and serves as a helpful indicator of future trends in risk assets. Understanding the Market Trends While the real economy hints that we are likely not currently in a recession, it’s crucial to examine the charts to better understand the downside risks and how to position oneself in order to stay on the right side of market risk. The spike in the VIX and the put-to-call ratio on Monday indicated extremely fearful sentiment, which historically suggests limited downside risk and the potential for a short-term rebound. The sudden surge in fear was reflected in the sharp increase in bond prices as investors shifted from high-risk to low-risk assets. With bullish short-term and long-term trends since early June, bond prices have reached overbought conditions, suggesting they are likely to slow down in the short term but continue outperforming in the long term, aligning with market expectations of future rate cuts. The inverse can be observed in the equity markets, with US indices in oversold conditions and exhibiting recent bearish short-term and long-term trends. This suggests that equities are likely to experience a short-term bounce but will continue to decline in the long term, providing a potential opportunity to sell. The cryptocurrency market tells a similar but much more pronounced story, with bearish short-term and long-term trends evident since late June. Despite being oversold, the future outlook for the cryptomarket remains pessimistic and is likely to underperform equities, especially if investors continue to reduce risk. This flight to the relative safety of mega caps has been a recurring theme since March 2021, when both the small cap and mid cap to mega cap ratios turned bearish, a trend that remains unbroken and is likely to continue unless a recession materializes and forces a shift to looser monetary policy. Similar trends are likely to continue in the cryptocurrency markets, as evidenced by the breakout in Bitcoin dominance, which currently positions Bitcoin’s market cap at 62% of the entire cryptocurrency market when stable coins are excluded from the calculation. Concluding Thoughts While the market is starting to panic amid recessionary fears, the data does not yet confirm that the economy is currently entering a recession. Investors should avoid panic selling, as a rebound is likely to occur in the short term given the current overextended conditions. For the mid to long term, the situation calls for a cautious approach, focusing on managing risk and gradually shifting from riskier to less risky assets, as indicated by longer-term trends in asset markets. Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice.
AMEX:SPY
by ingeforberg
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 8-6 : Caution Over The Next 48 HoursMy research suggests the SPY/QQQ will stall into a sideways upward-sloping price channel over the next 1~2 day before attempting to rally further. Watch this video to learn more. The Top-Resistance Pattern today may prove very accurate if the SPY rolls downward after filling the GAP. Get ready; The Vortex Rally is just starting after this Deep-V Bottom. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
1
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade for 8-5 - CAUTION: Extreme VolatilityThis video highlights why I believe skilled traders are taking minimal, targeted trades in the current market environment. With the current market volatility as crazy as it is, I don't believe anyone should be swinging for the fences. If you learn anything from my videos over the past few weeks - know this. The #1 rule for trading is to protect capital (at all times). You can be right or wrong while trading. But you have to learn to live to trade another day. This crazy market volatility could have made a small fortune for some people but destroyed others. Until we see the SPY move up above $535-$540, there is still a big risk the markets could fall further. Watch this video to learn more. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
COMEX:GC1!Long
by BradMatheny
QQQ back in long term channel. What's next?After spending about a month above the long term blue channel since 2009 (excludes COVID bubble), QQQ is back inside the blue channel. You can see the gap up on June 12th and gap back down on July 24th. The black channel goes all the back to 2008 and the bottom of the market and includes the COVID bubble. The black mid-channel is currently acting as support. The AI rally starting in Jan 2023 has been confined to the purple channel. I see a couple of options for the next week or two. First, we could see a rally to test resistance of the purple channel. It is possible that we jump back above and the AI rally continues, but that fells unlikely. Second, it seems to me a bigger correction could be in store to break the purple channel support down to the red trend line. The core batch of tech earnings is up the next week or so, and that is going to have a lot to do with the direction. Weekly
NASDAQ:QQQ
by Dr_Roboto
2
NDX Mega Rally Will Continue..Don't let the "fundamentals" mess with your head.. NDX has another 36% climb ahead of it, before it's next serious correction... I called the bottom of this correction quite accurately (In fact, I called it but 4 days in advance to my predicted date it bottomed... This is a text book bull flag with a measured move to the 161.8 Perfect technical structure.. Time to be long is now.. QE is coming back, rates are going to ease off, money will flow out of bonds and T-bills and back in risk assets, elections are coming up soon, war is raging and is sadly a cash machine for defence stocks, CPI lags and the market is going to pump in expectation of further inflationary pressures down the road.. AI is booming and is inherently deflationary.. The most upside I believe will be in any crypto related stock plays, as it's tech category + highest asymmetry..
NASDAQ:NDXLong
by TheTraderAndy
NASDAQ-100 (BIGTECH) VOLATILITY INDEX. IMPORTANT LEVELS TO LEARNBroadly-known ominously among investors as the "fear index" and launched by the Chicago Board Options Exchange (now the Cboe) in 1993, the Volatility Index (VIX) is meant to present the market's expectation of volatility over the coming 30 days. The metric is derived from options prices on the S&P 500 Index and captures the anticipated swings that drive investor sentiment. In recent years, the VIX has become a far more central index, especially during periods of financial turbulence, such as the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic. During these stretches, spikes in the VIX reflected widespread anxiety; during others, it's been a crucial barometer for market participants seeking a glimpse into investors' collective psyche. When the VIX is low, this suggests calm seas ahead. When it spikes, it signals approaching storms. Every single stock index do have its own volatility. This story is about Cboe NASDAQ-100 Volatility Index The Cboe NASDAQ-100 Volatility Index (VXN) is a key measure of market expectations of near-term volatility conveyed by NASDAQ-100 Index (NDX) option prices. It measures the market's expectation of 30-day volatility implicit in the prices of near-term NASDAQ-100 options. VXN is quoted in percentage points, just like the standard deviation of a rate of return, e.g. 19.36. Cboe disseminates the VXN index value continuously during trading hours. The VXN Index is a leading barometer of investor sentiment and market volatility relating to the NASDAQ-100 Index. Learn more about Methodology for Calculation of the VXN Index, using official CBOE website . Technical observations The main technical graph indicates that VXN Index has recently jumped, from 5-year lows around 15 basic points in mid-June, 2024 to current 25 basic points. In nowadays 25-level corresponds to 5-years SMA, and is the major one resistance level. In any case of breakthrough it certainly cracks the door to 40-levels and potentially even much above. Think twice. Then leap. Cheers, Pandorra
CBOE:VXN
by Pandorra
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade 8-5 : The Shot Across The Bow.Watch this video. I'm going to try to keep this short and sweet. I've gotten a lot of comments about how my SPY Cycle Patterns have NOT been working out over the past 10+ days and I want to address that. The SPY Cycle Patterns are built on Gann & Fibonacci price structures/patterns. They reflect "Normal market psychology" and attempt to provide a guide as to what to expect within normal market rotation/trends. Nothing has been "normal" over the past 3+ weeks. It all started when Biden dropped out of the race for POTUS. Then, the real shot across the bow was the Bank Of Japan warning the rest of the world "hey, you may need to start aggressively defending your currencies against devaluation risks". If you really understand what that means, you'll understand the panic process that is playing out right now. But, I urge all of you to think about "what changed over the past 3 weeks". That is the question I keep asking myself. What changed is uncertainty (the Kamala-Crush) and the BOJ signaling foreign markets to prepare to defend the value of your currency against the US-Dollar. And I believe the panic-mode will subside very quickly as global asset prices drop. Falling prices mean stocks move into undervalued price territory. That also means smart traders BUY INTO this weakness for the longer-term ROI potential. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
FX:SPX500Long
by BradMatheny
4
Money Market says that rate cut will be an urgent one (again)Just take a look on a rate cut expectations. In a short, the main technical graph is a difference (spread) between the nearest futures contract on FOMC interest rate (in this time Sept'24 ZQU2024) and the next one futures contract (in this time Oct'24 ZQV2024). It's clear that spread turned to negative in 2024, and heavily negative over the past several weeks. Historical back test analysis says that in all of such cases, FOMC is to cut interest rates immediately. The next scheduled FOMC meeting is September17-18. Will the market wait 6 more weeks? The right answer: NO. Rate cut will be an urgent one (unscheduled again).
CBOT:ZQ1!
by Pandorra
QQQ Trading Opportunity! BUY! My dear friends, Please, find my technical outlook for QQQ below: The price is coiling around a solid key level - 448.71 Bias - Bullish Technical Indicators: Pivot Points Low anticipates a potential price reversal. Super trend shows a clear buy, giving a perfect indicators' convergence. Goal - 464.38 About Used Indicators: The pivot point itself is simply the average of the high, low and closing prices from the previous trading day. ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
NASDAQ:QQQLong
by AnabelSignals
2
$SPY Sharp Decline?! $503 Target, $493 possible 8/21, then $520Thats right folks. Your's truly with another quick thought on where I think we're headed, and FAST!! Assuming we repeat the First Half of 2022, I want to say that the next 10 days will produce a dump and a bounce. Do be careful if you're long this market. All signs point to a flash crash to $493 and then a mean bounce to retest $520. Don't forget, cash is a position. I like to keep things simple with my charts for the most part. ATM, I am looking at the 10D chart. I like the 10D chart because it has hidden divergences on RSI that prove extremely useful. As the days go on, it will get easier. Those that doubt will always learn the Hard way. Paytience will always prevail. After $520 bounce, I would assume a slow bleed to $480 into the election for a new low, followed by an Election Rally back to $530 before we come back crashing down. All of this will come with time and I'm writing it down so you can see my thought process. Everything takes time. Drop to $503-$494 Hard Bounce to $520 Slow Bleed to $480, Previous ATH Winter 22' Bounce to $530 for a Retest of Previous Support should we break. Good Luck out there
AMEX:SPYShort
by TazmanianTrader
ALERT! Healthcare Stocks? $UNH 70% decline! Sub $200 possible. I've been watching and keeping this quiet for a while now and I am now extremely confident of this trade. NYSE:UNH headed for the dumps as technicals show signs of a 70% decline ahead in the next year. This is a developing trade and I do not have any news to support this drop however, I am certain. The Weekly is currently in a bear flag the same exaact way. After a huge run, UNH looks to be running out of steam. The RSI matches around 70 on the 10D timeframe and the MACD is also coming from a negative area into bullish territory, yet the bearish divergence is clear imo. I will be glady entering long puts up here. I will continuously update this trade. See you Next year. Use this chart as a reference to current chart.
NYSE:UNHShort
by TazmanianTrader
$SPY $537 Fair Value Gap fill incoming imoFVG sits below at $541.61-$536.89 ..... Current 6 count could prove bearish into the 7th count on 10D chart. Very interesting chart showing what would essentially be a Bearish Harami off this Inside Doji. The 10D candle starts tomorrow 7/23 and ends 8/7 so basicaally accumlate as many puts as possible between then and now. If we move above the Open on the Doji at $554.54, then we can start talking about bullish behavoir. For now though, the gap above at $566.7 was rejected and I will be looking for a downside move from here to $540 as previously noted in a recent session. Chao.
AMEX:SPYShort
by TazmanianTrader
2