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2024-10-09 - priceactiontds - daily update - nasdaqGood evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr nasdaq - Same as dax for me. Strong breakout and I do think we will retest 21000. September high is 20537 and there is a possibility, this continues to be resistance ut given the current context, the bulls are favored for higher prices. comment : Nested bull wedges on the daily chart and the bear gap to 20650 is getting very small. Only resistance left is the September high 20537 and the current breakout looks strong enough to expect higher highs above it and likely a retest of 21000. current market cycle: Bull trend (nested bull wedges) key levels: 19800 - 21000 bull case: Bulls prevented the market to close below the daily 20ema for 6 days and today bears gave up. Market refuses to go down and now we will test higher again. Bulls have all the arguments on their side if they stay above 20200. Below their case gets shaky again. Invalidation is below 20260. bear case: Bears see the open bear gap to 20650 and the upper bull wedge line around that same price. They will likely try to fight the bulls around that area again but I don’t think they want to risk much at that level. Market refuses to go down and their next best level for good shorts is 21000. If you are looking hard for more bear arguments… Maybe that the current volume is utterly trash and on the 1h tf you have another bull wedge and we are at the high of it. Pullback could go as deep as 20300. Can bears hope for some hot CPI and jobless claims tomorrow? I doubt it but you should not be in positions when the news is released or have really wide stops for your swings. Invalidation is above 20520. short term: Max bullish if the pullback stays above 20300. Neutral below. medium-long term: Very likely a retest of the ath before I expect a correction 10% or more, before another year end rally. Embrace the volatility. current swing trade : Nope trade of the day: Long the opening reversal. Was too strong to now long it, no ifs or buts.
CME_MINI:MNQ1!Long
by priceactiontds
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 10-9 : Breakaway In Counter TrendToday's video goes over why I believe today will be somewhat quiet in terms of trending and expectations. As I suggested in the video, today is a good day to trade with only 20-30% position sizes - or to take a day off and go golfing. I don't expect any big moves today - even though today's pattern is a Breakaway in Counter-trend mode. I believe the markets will pause today - seeking support/resistance and trying to establish a range for a bigger move on Thursday/Friday. I hope you guys are learning how to use the Excess Phase Peak patterns more efficiently. They are not easy to learn - especially now that I'm showing both the Ying & Yang side of these patterns. They happen everywhere and can be very important when making decisions. Remember, price only does two things: Trends or Flags. That's it. There is no other type of price action you have to prepare for. Get Some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by BradMatheny
10/8 Market Tensions as S&P500 Wobbles Ahead of CPI, BTC Holds.Overview: The AMEX:SPY is hovering around its all-time highs, showing limited movement as investors await Thursday’s CPI report. Anticipation is building, but it seems the U.S. market may not make any significant moves until inflation data provides clearer direction. BTC TA: W: When examining the volume profile of this year's entire bull phase, the point of control—where the most trading volume occurred—stands at $63 K. This explains why BINANCE:BTCUSDT might consolidate at the current price range for longer than expected. Despite a second false breakout attempt, Bitcoin remains trapped between the crucial monthly support level of $61.4K and resistance at $64 K. On one hand, geopolitical tensions are escalating in the Middle East, while on the other, China's government has announced a $28 billion investment package. The SSE Composite Index surged 30%, though it recently corrected by 11% over the last two days. Notably, some of the significant green candles can be attributed to Asian market open times. D: The daily chart paints a clear picture of the price struggling to escape bearish pressure. It’s hovering just below the Bollinger Bands’ moving average. Monday presented a bearish hammer, and Tuesday ended with an indecisive doji. 4h: No divergences are evident on the MACD or CVD. The RSI sits around 45, indicating balanced buying and selling pressure. 1h: Price is oscillating around the $62.2K point of control level without any strong signals for bullish or bearish momentum. Alts relative to BTC: Major altcoins are moving in line with Bitcoin, with little divergence. However, SUI and TAO, after their impressive runs to all-time highs, have begun to correct. Bull case: If Trump is re-elected, accompanied by more interest rate cuts, this could boost the bullish narrative. The bull flag on the weekly chart is becoming more apparent and, if it breaks out, could signal a further upward trend. The formation of a reverse head and shoulders at the beginning of July, August, and September also supports a bullish outlook. Bear case: However, bears point out that we’re still in a pattern of lower highs and lower lows. The double fake bull breakouts in recent upticks further signal caution. The market lacks new narratives, and regulatory crackdowns continue. Major CEXs now require strict KYC compliance, cutting off trading access for users in China, the UK, the U.S., and other key markets. While VPNs offer a workaround, the risks of locked accounts on exchanges registered in jurisdictions like the Cayman Islands add significant risk for traders. Fear and Greed Index: 41.71 - Neutral.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by EvgenCapital
$IWM Weekly Chart Looks BullishAMEX:IWM small caps have been volatile for quite a while now. I expect that volatility will continue until after the election. When looking at a daily chart it is hard to see any kind of pattern but zooming out to a weekly timeframe it looks to me that it has established a solid uptrend. I will be looking for an opportunity to get long for a move back to the upper trendline. But as you can see on the chart it has ventured outside the trendline but seldom closes above or below. The distance between the lower trendline and the upper trendline measures just over 11% as measured in a straight line. I am looking to squeeze out 8% to 10% as a swing trade. I have an alert just over yesterday’s high at $218.67. Should that trigger, I will put my stop just below last week’s low of 215.08. That looks like a good risk reward for me. All TBD.
AMEX:IWMLong
by jaxdog
Analyzing BTCUSD Using Excess Phase Peak PatternsI've been getting lots of emails and comments about the Excess Phase Peak patterns I use on my charts. They are really quite simple to understand once you learn their structure/process. But, the hardest part of using them is they work as a YING/YANG type of price structure. While the bullish Excess Phase Peak patterns are operating, the other side of price action, the bearish Excess Phase Peak patterns, are also operating in price. So, you have to be able to see what's in front of you from both sides. In this example with BTCUSD, I try to highlight both the bullish and bearish Excess Phase Peak patterns for traders to learn to use them more efficiently. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by BradMatheny
$LYFT Breaks Downtrend LineNASDAQ:LYFT I thought I published this idea back on September 17th when I went long. I started with a ½ size position on that date. I added additional shares on Monday the 23rd and again yesterday to bring it up to a full-size position. I am now hoping it will consolidate some of these gains. This is one I plan on trading around, meaning I may take some profits and look to add back or if it does not fall below the 5 DMA (white) and simply consolidates there I may simply add. It looks to me that NASDAQ:LYFT “could” run to the $15 area before hitting any resistance. All TBD. On a side note, were I just seeing this, I would wait for some consolidation or a pullback before entering a position. Ideas, not investing / trading advice.
NASDAQ:LYFTLong
by jaxdog
2
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 10-8 : Gap Breakaway PatternToday's Gap Breakaway pattern suggests the SPY/QQQ will gap up and rally higher - moving away from yesterday's base/bottom. Remember, we had two basing and bottoming patterns over the weekend. Although I don't really count weekend patterns as drivers of price trends, I view them as psychological patterns. In other words, they reflect expectations headed into the following week of trading. So, the basing/bottoming patterns last weekend will likely resolve into a melt up type of trend this week and the gapping/breakaway patterns this week will, as a result, present a strong opportunity to the upside for traders. Recently, I started drawing the "Roadmap" trade signals on the charts for traders. This is an attempt to make things easier for all of you. Allowing you to see where the opportunities are for Options or Share trades more clearly. Ideally, if this works for all of us, then I'll be able to map out 4 to 7+ days of price rotation in clear trade triggers for all of us to use. Now, something interesting I wanted to point out is the SPY has just moved into a #3 phase of an Excess Phase Peak pattern. It is a very small pullback off a high - but it is still a valid Excess Phase Peak pattern. If price rallies today, as I expect, this rally will invalidate the Excess Phase Peak pattern and put us into a strong rally phase targeting $605 on the SPY. Gold is getting ready to move into a basing/support zone over the next 18+ hours - then really start to rally higher. BTCUSD has rolled downward - just as I expected moving into the #3 phase of it's Excess Phase Peak pattern. Again, if you are not paying attention - I'm picking apart all of these charts very cleanly and the information I present should be helping you see and identify better trade opportunities. Tell me how I'm doing. Get Some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
18
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade 10-7 Roadmap UpdateThis short video updates traders related to the SPY & GOLD Cycle Patterns and how I see price playing out over the next 48+ hours. I also highlight the resistance level setting up in BTCUSD. Should be interesting to see how this plays out over the next 4+ days. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
2
Why I'm Bullish in the market on the midtermIntroduction I want to break down why I’m optimistic about the current market conditions and share my strategy as we approach the release of CPI data. I’ll walk you through the big picture—the macroeconomic landscape, the Fed’s approach, economic indicators, and the geopolitical situation MACRO ANALYSIS 1. Fed’s Approach Dovish Let’s start by looking at the macro environment. Right now, the Federal Reserve is signaling rate cuts. Market now is expecting a 0.50 cut at the end of the year. A good question is why the Fed is cutting rates. In my opinion, the most important reason is that inflation is almost at its target of 2% year over year. This is crucial because it tells us that the economy isn’t overheating anymore. The Fed no longer needs to keep rates high to control inflation. So what happens when rates come down? Companies can borrow money at lower costs, consumers can spend more freely, and overall, this adds fuel to the economy. We’re also seeing quantitative easing, meaning more liquidity is being pumped into the market. This will likely lead to a weaker US dollar, which isn’t necessarily a bad thing. A weaker dollar can boost exports and benefit risk-on assets like cryptocurrencies and equities. Adding to that, CHINA, Japan and potentially the EUR are taking dovish behavior in their monetary policy, CHINA stimulating the economy strongly. BOJ reducing the hawkish,Adding more fuel to the global markets. 2. Economic Strength We’re seeing strong economic indicators. JOLTS Job opening 8.14M vs 7.64M, ISM Services PMI were stronger than expected 54.9 VS 51.7 and continued above 50 indicating expansion. NFP data 254k vs 247 number better than expected, Unemployment rate 4.1% vs 4.2% better than expected. These are signs that businesses are still hiring, consumers are still spending, and overall, the economy is not strugglin. This is important because it means we’re not cutting rates due to a weak economy and helping it—. The FED is cutting rates because inflation is coming under control, not because businesses are struggling. This distinction is key for my optimism. Lower borrowing costs paired with a strong economy create a good environment for growth. This means that a dovish monetary policy, strong economy potentiate the growth, expansion, investment on the economy and business that this is reflected in the equities prices. 3. Geopolitical Conflict The third piece of the puzzle is the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East. Yes, this adds some uncertainty to the global outlook, but from a market perspective, geopolitical events tend to create short-term volatility. As long as the situation doesn’t escalate further, I don’t see it as a mid-term threat to the broader market. When the situation stabilizes, we could even see markets gain more confidence. For now, I’m not letting this weigh too heavily on my decision-making. Elections USA, just adding on this part that both sides are going to continue expanding the debt and increasing the expenditures, Trump is proposing more stimulus to the economy with a more aggressive reduction of the rates. Generally both sides offers similar paths but Trump more aggressive CONCLUSION In the midterm the macro indicates a good environment for the equities to continue higher. Some names I’m looking for are in the crypto space such as IBIT, ETF as TQQQ and stocks as NVDA, Meta. But I will cover in another letter
NASDAQ:QQQLong
by AJTRADER84
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade for 10-7 - SPY Cycle Patterns RoadmapThis week, I'm trying something I started over the last week or two - a "Roadmap" of what I expect to see price do going forward 7-10+ days. Now, this is something most people won't do because it presents a "live or die" outcome. Either I'm going to be right (or somewhat right) about price action and can live with my expectations - or, I'm going to be completely wrong about all of my expectations and it will prove to be a failed exercise in the use of my SPY Cycle Patterns. So, at this point - you know I'm hoping price does exactly what I expect it to do. I started doing this about 2 weeks ago. I just started calling it the "Roadmap" for traders (tieing into the Plan Your Trade concept). What I'm trying to do is to show you how I use my SPY Cycle Patterns (and other analysis techniques) to try to stay ahead of market trends. And you can learn to do this as well. It just takes time, practice, and knowledge. So, as we start the week out in early October - let's see how this plays out and if we get any surprises with price action. I spend quite a bit of time going over BTCUSD today - pay attention. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
US Inflation, Earnings Season Kickoff, Markets on EdgeS&P has failed to make all-time highs Dow has failed to make all-time highs Nasdaq has failed to make any new highs Russell has failed to make any new highs Oil rips on Middle East escalations Dollar rips on technical support and bear trap play. Dollar is a big component to the stock markets edging higher for the remainder of the year (e.g. dollar strong = market weak, dollar weak = market strong) I'm keeping it very simple and staying patient for any "dip" opportunities on indexes, stocks, and watchlist items I still like Gold, Silver, Bitcoin long as well - again, patient on price action and entries Major News this week -US CPI (MoM, YoY, Core and Reg CPI) -Earnings Season Kickoff - DPZ, DAL, WFC, JPM, BLK and others Thanks for watching!!!
AMEX:SPY
by ChrisPulver
$QQQ Longer ViewpointNASDAQ:QQQ is lagging behind AMEX:SPY and has not reclaimed ATH ' yet .' Looking at the weekly time frame, we can note that NASDAQ:QQQ has been bouncing off the trendline that started back in JAN 2023. It has touched and bounced off that trendline 3x so far: -MARCH 2023 -OCTOBER 2023 -AUGUST 2024 Each time it bounced, it ran for approximately 100pts + and took roughly 124 - 140 days before consolidation and/or a correction / retracement / pullback occurred. From a technical standpoint, NASDAQ:QQQ will attempt at All Time Highs (ATH) at $503.52 again. We have to be conscience of the divergence between AMEX:SPY and $QQQ. AMEX:SPY has already made a new ATH while NASDAQ:QQQ is lagging behind. If ATH is broken on NASDAQ:QQQ and price move similarly to the last two weekly trendline bounce, then price could reach $528 and some change before possible consolidation and/or a correction / retracement / pullback occurred with a timeline of around mid-December. Failure to reclaim and/or break ATH can cause NASDAQ:QQQ to return back to the trendline. This is NOT financial advice but an opinion.
NASDAQ:QQQ
by SADnation
$SPY OVERIVEW ON THE MONTHLY TIME FRAMEAn overview of AMEX:SPY from a technical standpoint. This does not include any fundamental / economical consideration. AMEX:SPY has been in this rising channel since 2020. Each wave / rejection from the trendline / channel caused a 10 - 12 month directional move 100pts +. AMEX:SPY is at the top trendline / channel again. Could see an upward continuation of price in an attempt to hit $600. Failure to break through $600 could start the retracement / correction / pullback over the next 10 - 12 months back to the bottom of the channel / trendline. This would put AMEX:SPY at around $500, give or take 20 - 40 pts. This would be in alignment with what some of the more well-known analyst / economist has been stating about 15/20% correction. Reason for the margin of error is the last two waves moved an avg of 140 pts. $500 is a key level psychologically and from an algorithmic point of view. $600 is also a key psychological / algorithmic level as well. If there is a break of this level, market could see another 20 - 40 pts topside move before consolidation and then possible retracement / correction / pullback. This is NOT financial advice but merely an opinion.
AMEX:SPY
by SADnation
1
10/4 Nice rebound. Can we crash now? Overview: The AMEX:SPY opened Friday significantly higher than Thursday’s close, forming a bullish hammer candle and edging closer to its all-time high. This week closed higher than the previous week, though the previous week did see higher prices. The NASDAQ:QQQ mirrored the S&P’s action, showing similar price movement. BlackRock continues dollar-cost averaging into its ETH ETF, while other major players remain on the sidelines. One critical trend to monitor: Bitcoin has historically struggled to hit new all-time highs or maintain upward momentum when the Global Liquidity Index is in decline. Unfortunately, the index has been falling for the past 19 days. You can learn more about Global Liquidity Index and add it to your chart: The CME Fed Watch Tool has now removed the possibility of a half-percentage point rate cut in November, replacing it with a chance of no rate cut at all. Currently, 2.6% of traders believe there will be no rate cut in November, while 97.4% expect a 1 basis point cut. Even with a rate cut, it will take time for liquidity to flow back into markets. By the time that happens, Bitcoin may hit its bottom for this cycle, signaling the start of a new bullish phase. Be sure to have cash ready for that opportunity. BTC Technical Analysis: W: BTC’s price is nearing the Bollinger Band Moving Average (BB MA) at $62.6k. If Sunday’s price rises by $456, it would close at or above that level, offering temporary hope to bulls. However, a more critical level to watch is the previous weekly close at $64.1k. D : After a significant pullback from the bull trap, daily resistance is set at $63.3k. Breaking that level will require significant momentum. 4h & 1h: No clear signals on these timeframes. In a limbo. Altcoins Relative to BTC: APT and TAO have remained stable over the last 5 days, showing no significant declines after BTC’s bull trap. Shorting opportunities might arise soon. Bull Case: Looking at the past 28 days, we see a clear bullish trend with higher highs and higher lows. As liquidity eventually enters the market, more capital could flow into crypto, pushing prices higher. Bear Case: On a broader scale, since the start of the year, the market is still showing lower highs and lower lows, suggesting bearish risks are still present. Fear and Greed Index: 40.78 – Back to neutral.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by EvgenCapital
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade 10-4 End Of Week Wrap-upWhat a great week overall! My SPY Cycle patterns worked fairly well to target buy/sell zones 4-7+ days in advance and really provided some much-needed guidance for traders this week. I've been getting emails and messages from many traders telling me how my research and SPY Cycle Patterns have changed their lives. It sure makes things easier when you have this level of information about the future of price trends/ranges, right? As we head into the weekend - let's take some time to help those around us that need our assistance. After the recent Hurricane, I'm sure people within your reach need a little assistance. Remember, this is when we, as Americans, need to stand up and help fellow Americans. Be safe, and see you on Monday. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
COMEX:GC1!Long
by BradMatheny
$ENPH In Uptrend Channel?Enphase has been basing for about 10 months after a severe selloff in 2023. That base has been wide and loose until the June – July timeframe where it has tightened up and appears to have established an uptrend channel. I will be looking for a reversal in the coming days to weeks as it is likely that it will head back to the top of the channel. Should it start moving up from here, it could be about a 17% move back to the top of the channel. All TBD. Maybe this one should be on your watchlist as well. Note that earnings are coming up in 3 weeks. Maybe it rallies in front of that event?
NASDAQ:ENPHLong
by jaxdog
2
10/3 Bye Bye cryptoOverview: Unemployment dropped to 4.1%, slightly lower than the expected 4.2%. September’s jobs report revealed a 254k increase in hiring, well above the forecasted 150k. This means there's now a reduced chance of a double basis point rate cut in November, which is bad news for risk-on assets like crypto. The CME tool now shows a 92.5% chance for a single basis point rate cut, up from 47% just a week ago. Next week, CPI and PPI reports will be released, which will be crucial for gauging inflation. Meanwhile, BlackRock continues its dollar-cost averaging into both BTC and ETH ETFs, while others are either selling or staying on the sidelines. Fun fact: at 8:30 a.m. Eastern, an interesting event occurred. Someone placed a market buy order for BTC, causing a 0.38% price spike. The volume for that minute was 196 Bitcoin, worth around $12 million at a price of $61.5k. Since the candle was green, it suggests more than 50% of that volume was buying pressure. Did someone purchase $7 million worth of Bitcoin? While that large order initially triggered a brief buying spree, just an hour later, the price began to dump. This shows either whales aren't fully in control of the market, or $7 million isn't enough to sway it for long. BTC TA: W: BTC remains steady at the same weekly level, with no significant movement. D: Similarly, daily price levels remain stagnant. 4h: MACD and RSI continue to climb from the bottom, indicating potential for further bullish movement. However, the overall market sentiment, driven by geopolitical and economic news, may hamper this upward trajectory. 1h: BTC has seemingly found support between $61.9k and $60.1k. However, the chances of an upward breakout appear slim given the macroeconomic conditions. Altcoins Relative to BTC: Yesterday, we suggested shorting SUI, which proceeded to collapse 13%. Bull Case: BTC bounces off its current support level and recovers to $63k. Bear Case: Economic data may reveal that inflation is here to stay, and the Fed won't cut rates as quickly as the market hoped. Even when the rate cut comes, it could take months for the economy to adjust. Additionally, the Global Liquidity Index continues to decline despite rate cuts from both the U.S. and China. Fear and Greed Index: 36.11 – Fear. When this indicator moves into fear territory, we often recommend buying blue-chip altcoins, even for short-term traders. It's wise to keep a separate long-term investment account. Remember the saying: Be greedy when others are fearful. Prediction: BTC and the broader crypto market may continue to decline.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by EvgenCapital