What I can see playing out in the next few weeks DOWN TRENDAs we know we have been in a down trend. Ended the year and started new year with a bang and than literally a BANG!
First few weeks of the year had some people shook. It has been in a down trend since and continues down its channel pretty clean. not perfect
I think we need to fill that 400 gap before we see highs again.
With inflation, war and everything going on most of it is priced in but it could still get crazy.
I am not a finical advisor I'm just guessing this is what will happen.
The last few weeks has been very good (short side) Some people only play one side ( i my self at a time did as well and lost out big because of it! )
I don't think were in full fledge bear mode and not "crashing" yet atleast...
When spy is in the low 300s ill say ok we crashed! Anyways Safe trading people! Super volatile :)
Puts
$IWM — Potential H&S forming on the 1hr We can either go lower to fill that open gap right off the bat...
or
We're going to go a bit higher to form the second shoulder, creating the H&S with a downside target of $193...
Either way, that gap is filling — not sure if it will today, but likely for next week and for certain before March's 3rd Friday.
The StochasticSlow is looking overbought, and the CCI is hinging lower just under that momentum line — bad sign for the bulls, if you ask me.
Oxy Short Oxy looks like it may have ran up and hit its head on the goal post, should take a breather here. I got some 40.00$ puts for 3/25, looking for a quick trade. Gonna cash out with anything better than a 20% gain. PS I work in The Permian Basin, we are super busy. Long term Oxy will test the break out and head higher. This is just what I'm doing, the only thing you should do is comment back if I'm right or wrong lol, do not copy this trade.
$JKS Head & Shoulders - Downside Incoming?Looking at this Head and Shoulders pattern from mid August to present, also note the double top in last July and November. Solar sector as a whole is getting beat up everywhere at the moment, and it feels like the writing is on the wall here for $JKS
Their earnings are coming up at the start of March, so I feel there is a danger we catch a little bounce here and consolidate 'til then. However - the setup is here, and I don't want to miss it
I don't really want to see price back above $41. In fact, ideal situation tomorrow is that we get a little upwards move on the market early in the day, and I can find an good entry for a put position whilst price is above $40, with $41 as the stop. If price needs to consolidate and range a little whilst the Market digests this week's upcoming big earnings, then above $41 I don't wanna be involved in the decision making, and would rather take the trade on the breakdown rather than in anticipation if that ends up being the case.
I'm going to be going for March expiry , and I'm going to be going ITM for the main swing position. If we get clear breakdown below $39.00 with conviction then I might day trade weeklies simultaneously and just zone in on $JKS all week.
I'd like the flexibility of letting the swing position run and breathe (whilst trend remains) and trying to take scalps/day trades on weeklies. I've recently had great initial put entries on MTTR, FCEL, and back a little while longer ago on BNED - and each time I didn't show enough patience to hold my puts through long enough and I didn't capitalise nearly as much as I should have on these massive downward runs
No distinct concrete target, but I'd like at least $36.00 and even down to $32.00 I don't think is out of realm of possibility. I think anywhere below that we'll have to be on alert for a bounce around $30 region. But we'll play it as it comes. Hoping to nail this one. But willing to be wrong . Will add to this post tomorrow if I take an entry, with what I bought, when I bought, and for what price.
*this is not Financial Advice, and is merely my opinion and idea*
IWM trade update, and more swing putsIn my previous chart (linked) I gave notice of IWM breaking down from its range. The upper gray line marks the lowest close of the sideways range, and the lower line marks the dip last January. There is a lot of air underneath.
I took profits on the dip to 205 yesterday. Today I bought 18Feb puts again at the 208-209 resistance. Now looking at 198 break, then 193, 185.
fyi - My option swing trades usually last 1 day to 2 weeks. I only use long calls or puts, single leg.
NKE in a downtrend and possibly going to the gap fillLooking at NKE and seeing all kinds of bearish signs for the short term. It is currently under its 200MA and 50 MA, also below the 12 and 26 EMA (DAILY CHART)
Bearish case (short term)
This one is simple: A break below $144 could give sellers the chance to fill the gap created back on June 24th 2021
Below $144 I can see $138 being a real possibility if not the full gap to $134.82. Puts below $144 could work and be considered.
Volume is light. Less shares traded on 1/18 than compared to average volume of 5,815,975 shares
NKE has the demand on its product, but supply chain issues make it where they cant meet that demand. Earnings in March will paint a bigger picture as far as revenue and EPS
Bullish outlook (long term)
That said, I am short term bearish but long term bullish: "Guggenheim's Robert Drbul dubbed the athletic-apparel retailer his "best idea" for 2022 in a December 31 note, saying Nike "is rapidly embarking on the next era of its company history," which he expects to be "digitally led." "Drbul maintained a buy rating and a price target of $195 on Nike stock, which was down 1.8% Monday after gaining 18% in 2021." "Insider reported previously that Nike has been pushing into the future internet, called both Web 3.0 and the metaverse. Its push has included video games, the creation of a metaverse studio, and even a promised line of digital sneakers called CryptoKicks." I really like their effort to step into a newer market and expand. Nike is a staple brand that is not going anywhere. At 145 this stock is underweight.