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Psychology

BTC - ADAPTIVE TRADING IDEASDear Traders and Hopeaholics alike, as the self-proclaimed President and Founder of HOPEAHOLICS ANONYMOUS (or HA for short) you all laughed at me last time... but that is ok I am used to it and enjoyed all the HA HA HAs from here to the BTC Target... I want to talk to you today about Adaptive Intelligence and why it is SO important in trading! "It is not the most intellectual or the strongest of species that survives; but the species that survives is the one that is able to adapt to and adjust best to the changing environment in which it finds itself. Charles Darwin" Being able to not have a fixed narrative in trading is vital when the trade goes the opposite way to how you are actually trading. Being able to cut your losses and move forward is crucial. Knowing when to activate the STOP LOSS is essential in order to preserve your funds. Before entering any trade have strict rules, and never deviate from the plan, if the trade goes against you, make sure you assess exactly what went wrong before entering a new trade. I want to look at some alternate possibilities from my last chart, and why you need to know this! THE TECHNICAL STUFF On the chart I have an Elliott Wave PIVOT breakpoint of $8,425. This is an important region if we get there, as this would take the current wave 4 and the waves would cross. A correct Elliott wave count must observe three rules: Wave 2 never retraces more than 100% of wave 1. Wave 3 cannot be the shortest of the three impulse waves, namely waves 1, 3 and 5. Wave 4 does not overlap with the price territory of wave 1, except in the rare case of a diagonal triangle formation. (Source wiki/Elliott_wave_principle) Therefore if $8,425 pivot is to be breached by anything more than a wick on higher timeframes, we are in a different uptrending pattern. Also as per last TradingView update, $4,500 is the LONG TERM SUPPORT region, breaking this region could be disastrous for BTC and the crypto economy as a whole, so not something I am hoping happens. A strong indicator of reversal will be the ability of the whales to push this pattern to the $9057 region. If we reach this area there is a strong possibilty 13 K is on the way! On this chart we also have STRONG MONETARY SUPPORT in 2 REGIONS shown on the VPVR (Volume Profile Visible Range Indicator) ********************************************** There are no guarantees in trading, but I want to make you all aware of this possible scenario BTC is showing right now... It may amount to nothing, but it also may change the direction of the entire market... BRINGING HOPE! (And as the self-proclaimed President and Founder of HOPEAHOLICS ANONYMOUS that's what I do! ********************************************** If you are unsure of direction or feel you are over trading I have a moto. IF IN DOUBT SIT IT OUT! There is no shame in not being in a trade. Stick to your game plan, wait for a set up to be confirmed, and ONLY take a trade if it all aligns. So please I welcome your comments and CONSTRUCTIVE FEEDBACK - ALL HATERS WILL BE FLAGGED AND REPORTED! And remember, there is NO RIGHT OR WRONG in trading - just money management! REMEMBER IF YOU ARE PRACTICING SAFE... TRADING ALWAYS USE PROTECTION (minimize your risk, use a stop loss. Especially in Margin Trades) ALWAYS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! <3 Lisa DISCLAIMER: The Legal stuff - I'm not financial adviser. Just a few quick thoughts - remember you sit at your computer, you push the buttons... PS make sure you give me a like, that way you get updates as I post them.... :) <3
by LisaNEdwards
22
Proof of Human Trading on BTCUSDT (Not Just ALGORITHMS)In this update I will share a fantastic opportunity to understand human trading behaviour. First I will share the four levels of resistance that I am looking at. The levels can be used for the coming weeks to understand key price levels of BTC. However, for actual price projections, don't plan too far ahead. Even though we are in a clean rising wedge, I drew only candles until 3, 4 days out. There is soo much news recently that impacts the price of BTC, that TA becomes less sustainable for price predictions. Now, onto the levels: Resistance Level 1: 6650 Resistance Level 2: 8150 Resistance Level 3: 9200 Resistance Level 4: 10500 Look at how BEAUTIFUL these numbers are. They are all incredibly round numbers, which match perfectly to the levels of support and resistance. Computer scripts don't come up with these round numbers, humans do. You can see human trading behaviour at work here, along with human psychology. This is exactly where humans would put their limit orders, or where they will put price alarms. -- So, How Do I Beat Other Human Traders? -- Think carefully about where you put your limit orders. If the resistance is at 9200, don't put your limit order at 9201 right above a huge resistance. Be smart, and put it at 9199 or even a little bit lower. This reduces your profits only slightly, while greatly increasing the odds that your limit price will be hit. This also works for buy orders, never put those on round price levels. Instead, look for non-round numbers slightly disadvantageous to the profit, but very positive for your hitrate. If you learned something today, give me a thumbs up! - Trading Guru -------------------------------------------------------------- Disclaimer! This post does not provide financial advice. It is for educational purposes only! About the links below: 20% Discount on Binance: Did you know that Binance introduced a new system where you can get 20% discount on your fees? Find the step-by-step guide on how to add it to your account on the website of 100eyes Forex & Crypto Scanner: Nobody can keep track of all the pairs on all timeframes. This scanner works on Telegram and sends an automated message including a chart every time something happens to a coin. E.g. it can automatically detect areas of support and resistance, RSI Divergences, Fib Retracements, and more.
Long
by Trading-Guru
15
How to make money: Profit from mass hysteriasA little update on my last post as I have had more confirmation of my claims since then. About people irrational minds. Sounds all textbook all of this "mass hysteria" and people might think real life isn't that stupi but it is. After telling someone his not hearing of the word CoronaVirus did not make it worse than the flu and ebola, I was just mocked for "making a stupid comparison" because "you didn't hear of ebola before it was discovered" and "if WE (not only him) have not heard the word CoronaVirus before 2019 it is obviously because the name was not invented" FUN FACT: EbolaVIRUSSES were discovered in 1976. CoronaVIRUSSES were discovered in the 1960s. And Ebola killed WAY MORE than Corona, the flu is also way worse. Funny how SARS was "the mightiest zombie apocalypse virus" with Severe in its name, in 2002, and now these idiots out there don't even remember it and think "the coronavirus" was just discovered. They will forget about this current one in 3 months at most LOL. These people have no clue. They ignore what virusses are, they ignore that Corona is 60 years old, they ignore how lethal it is, they ignore that it is a common cold, they ignore that it goes away when it gets hotter, they ignore literally everything about it. You got PLEBES hitting the table with their fist and DEMANDING worldwide vaccines for all. The brainwashed populace that cannot think for themselves are scared. They think the world is ending or some sh**. Oh apparently this time according to "experts" "60% of the world could get infected". Yaaaaaawn, yeye sure. Yet another irrelevant tiny fart in the winds of history that a part of the population is reacting too, and medias (and stock market bears) are profitting off with their flashy titles and *breaking news*. What can only be described as either complete noobs, trolls, or idiots, called for a top. The "end of the bull market". The "mighty corona virus bear market". Well US indices are already past ath. You know, this timeframe is typically my time frame. My trades, the winners (losers go much faster), most of them, end up lasting 3 days to 2 weeks, with the occasional lucky huge winner that will last longer of course, up to 2 months. I think it is the best and easiest when one has "better than average foresight". I do not know how to predict the direction a company will go for the next 1 year or more, all I can do is buy cheap and hold. I can try guess generic trends and generic fundamentals, but I cannot predict what will happen in a whole year, 365 days, I have no idea what price a currency of company will be at in 365 days, the whims of the market. I've had my 1rst theory on stocks that was the dow would climb to 32k+ in "the future" (2nd one was 2018 was the top). And low timeframes like under a day is mostly just noise, and fees ruin it, and no one ever made consistent big returns from it, only people to claim they do are "educators". Of course this is just the start, it takes way more than just thinking for yourself and not being a brainwashed sheep, but the basis is this. Go against (or might profit from it) the public mood / emotions / irrational thoughts, and make sure to stick to the public attention span of around 2 weeks. All this "CoronaVirus" FUD was, was an opportunity to buy indices on a pullback. MA50 + Trendline. The T1 would be ath. From here my favorite course of action is to trail my stop and try staying in as long as possible. Trailing is an entire discipline to master it depends on alot of things including asking oneself "if I place my Stop Loss here what is the risk to reward if this was a new trade" and also includes using obviously previous resistances as support, seing how the price is moving, etc. There are other good ones, like "12 years left" "global cooling consensus - er I mean global warming - er I mean global climate change", but the most famous ones are not 2 weeks things, and no idea how long the hysteria lasts, so it's not a free piggy bank robbery like the never ending flow of 2 week long stories on the news. I hope the media format always stays the same and idiots stay idiots. And I am pretty sure it will. People have behaved like gnus (wildebeests) before the existence of tv media, and now that less and less people watch tv and they instead spend time on social networks (twitter youtube seem to be the main ones they get their info from) nothing has changed, still 2 weeks stories and mass delusions everywhere. Thx for the money, kiss kiss. The stock market will probably keep going up (this is not me saying it goes up in a straight line) till the Europe trade war starts. From wikipedia for the format: Rank Country Exports Imports Total Balance - European Union 283,269 434,633 717,902 -151,363 1 China 129,894 505,470 635,364 -375,576 He probably adds Nato in it, and unlike china they are certain to argue about the climate change "not up for debate" dogma. And europe are allies. It's going to be a huge thing. Maybe 3 years of sideways then a parabolic move up, then Trump presidency ends and the big crash. In that time Trump could get assassinated by very angry page tearing lefties, a civil war could break, US biggest allies could start having bad relations with it, the US might have a hostile takeover by communists, europe trade deal could go well rapidly, could go well but after a long time, coumld go bad rapidly, could go bad slowly. I just see it as impossible to call what will happen the next 4 to 5 years, I just know what direction it is supposed to go AND I know what to watch for what to expect. Long live profitting of short term delusions. They can laugh at us, they can insult us, they can argue with us, they can keep trying to have the last word, they can always be right in hindsight, they will always outnumber us, but we will always take their money.
TVC:SPXEducation
by MrRenev
9
10 Lessons from the Tesla short squeeze/FOMO rally1- Do not short one of the most shorted stocks of all times There was more than 30% of the float shorted, one of the most shorted stock ever in term of dollars or percent. So many short sellers in Wall Street. What did you think would happen? Anything above 10% is too high in my book. 2- Short squeezes can be huge, there is not level where "it has to stop going up now" Not the first time that a company rallies massively. Remember when volkswagen became the largest company in the world for a few days? Do not be stubborn. 3- Do not have "personal conviction" shorts, what I mean is don't get attached to it Classic commandment. 4- Do not short cultist stocks (unless you really know what you are doing which most of Wall Street is not) Elon Musk is a celebrity CEO that has a cult following, his cultists do not act rationally, they will hold to zero. They know nothing about investing, they do not read reports, they have cognitive bias and will make "magnet" arguments and argue with about everything no matter how clear and undeniable it is. Some of those clowns think the world is going to end and their life depends on TSLAQ I mean... No point even trying here. The brainwashed TSLAQ cult is one of the worse in human history. Know how hard it is to save people in a sect? Here it is even harder I reckon. 5- Have a tight stop (or other disposition), and trail your stop when well in the green The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent. Nuff' said. 6- Think for yourself, do not follow the herd The herd... direction the slaughterhouse. I could write a list of famous quotes about thinking for yourself, being a contrarian etc. 7- Keep an eye on the news: worldwide climate alarmism Extinction Rebellion made a name for themselves, I don't know if they are new or old but only became famous recently. You had Greta, you had the Australian fires (caused by climate activists as well as a government telling farmers not to burn waste for years but to leave it lying around to make sure big wildfires happen one day). 90% of who the climate alarmist are either young scientists that have no stature yet and want grants, left wing politicians that always welcome new reason to tax people, and xtra gullible 16 yo girls that trust their bf that keep lying to them and that cannot buy stocks. There's also alot of tech savvy millenial boys with glasses I am sure every one has seen several of them on tv, they get super angry when they hear "a denier" and start attacking him "oh so when science cures you you believe in it right" and deny anything he says (oh the irony) and don't let them speak, they get so reptilian brain angry... Easy to imagine how that can translate into "investing in the savior Elon Christ" regardless of rational facts such as TSLAQ being a pyramid scheme garbage company that hasn't turned a profit in 20 years for example... 8- If you find an interesting short, keep it to yourself Tesla bears kept advertising their short to every one on earth dragging more competition in... Then it ends up being shorted by every one including novices that just heard about it... 9- Stay away from companies that have high up potential Heavy retail interest, big rallies in the past, are red flags. A stock that went up 900% 2 years ago could do it again. With Tesla, Robinbros of course bought more as it was going down, and took profit very early when the price went up, but after alot of going up they finally couldn't resist anymore, and started buying lots and lots. Thousands of Robinhood users FOMO'd in after TSLAQ crossed $700. Big vertical rallies on TSLAQ were not accompanied by large reductions in short positions. Quoting reuters: " One factor driving the rally may be fund managers hurrying to raise their allocation of the stock, said Thomas Lee, managing partner at Fundstrat Global Advisors. Some fund managers whose portfolios are benchmarked to the Russell 1000 and Russell 1000 Growth indexes may have avoided loading up on Tesla shares due to their volatility and subpar performance in 2019 compared to those benchmarks, he said. “Last year, it was a name that was tough to own,” Lee said. “People have a lot of catching up to do.” " It's really more about abusing reptilian brains and knowing what ridiculous beliefs others have than being right about a company itself... 10- Do not go against parabolic moves unless you "know what you are doing" Hey I had 9 points but I just added this one, 10 is way better. There are always the "educated" gamblers that are going to want to short every parabolic move (parabolic doesn't mean "that went up alot" parabolic means going up parabolically, as opposed to in a linear way which can go up lots too). Some of these kids see their indicator at a high value and think it is time to go short and get burned over and over till they quit. If you identified a specific level and know it works well and know how far your stop should be you can short a parabolic move, ok you know what you are doing. I believe: - Joining the trend = Most forgiving of all - Shorting parabolic moves = Probably most punishing of all Not sure if it is the very worse, I have heard terrifying stories about people buying or selling slowly chugging trends. I mean... I will be blunt... You gotta to be a whole special kind of stupid to do this, and worse to stay in thinking "it's not that strong, has to reverse eventually" and grow your loser bigger and bigger. So idk if this counts it's just too dumb to be a real thing. For the advanced gamblers if you identified a great level do not be scared and do not remove your order because of a vertical candle or a scaaaary parabolic move, trust me go backtest it, it works even more often.
NASDAQ:TSLA
by MrRenev
7
Psychology in trading. Manipulation of consciousness Bitcoin 666Bitcoin's main trend is upward. Which formed the ascending channel . Always trade with the trend. Decide in which trend you are trading and on which timeframe. Decide on strategy and risk management. Your first enemy is a lack of experience and knowledge. Your second enemy is greed and a sense of lost profits. You always have time to make money, the market will not run away from you, but money in the absence of experience and knowledge will run away. On a bull trend it is better to always work on the bull side; on a bearish trend , on a bearish side. Always follow the trend! Going against the trend is the same thing that falls under the locomotive and hoping that it will not overeat you, but will bounce off of you! There should be a strategy and plan. At the same time, your strategy and plan should be plastic from market situations. You need to not only know the rules of technical analysis , but also understand what and how and why it works. Knowledge of technical analysis and the psychology of the crowd will make you in trading - God. If you are like everyone else, then the result will be like everyone else. Those people who rely on quick profits without effort and time are doomed to give their modest deposit more smart and hardworking. For the minority to earn money, the majority need to lose money in the market. The more the majority plays according to the rules imposed by the minority, the more money is lost. Consequently, a minority earns. To earn, you need someone to lose! When a minority needs it, the rules of technical analysis stop working. The faith of the majority imposed by the minority destroys the mountains and minor minority deposits. In the game against the crowd, only time decides the question of when the average zeroing of the deposit in the average person will occur. Those traders who are sure that success depends on only one successful purchase, retention of the asset for a short time, and then sales are many times more expensive - are doomed to zero the deposit. This is what the majority think, which means that this is an erroneous opinion. Thanks to this majority faith, the minority earns. Trading is not only work - it is creativity and relaxation! Remember, trading is a game of probabilities . Who trades from the situation created in the market - earns. Who trades on the basis of what he wants - receives a loss. The crowd trades out of their desires, not market probabilities. The crowd always loses. Thanks to the thinking and desires of the crowd, we earn. There are no accidents, there are random patterns that must be understood and used. Coincidences are planned actions disguised as randomness. 369-27-669-27 3075-1170-1666-444-27-01-20 310-130-23-13-06-02-2020-13 371-27-671-27 Money is not the meaning of life, but a tool for life!!! Appreciate the time of your life in this world - this is really a limited resource . Time will pass, life will go. Have you been born in this world for a cut paper of money that you will never have in your desired quantity? Think it over. Also think about patterns. Why is it that everyone who wants to have a lot of money remains very poor. And the opposite is true - who does not pursue the amount of money, but does good deeds, receives fantastic amounts in a short time that the “supplicant” and “wait for money” will never receive for all their wretched existence. How to give such is not safe. The crowd with their desires is crazy and selfish. To give to such is tantamount to destroying them. The world is honest. Who creates - he receives. Most want to receive - but do not give anything in return. This is the secret of poverty. Understand the world, understand yourself - life will become meaningful, understandable and easy.
BNC:BLXEducation
by SpartaBTC
5
Trading mechanism & Trading psychologyHi pros! today we will make the balance sheet of all the lessons we got through the 1000$ to 20K challenge. This is important because I think they already said to you : "trading is 90% psychology and 10% Technical analysis" , indeed it is. Because a trader with the best technical analysis but poor trading psychology and mechanism will got very low performance or will stay a break even trader or even worst ! a loser :( Why do you need psychology and mechanism to trade well? because it's like if you are in a car but you don't have break, or it's like jumping from an helicopter without parachute. You are going to a complete disaster. Market psychology is essential for the good health of your trading account and also your physical/mental health (yes to keep losing and losing put you in a very bad mood and can be potentially) I will resume all and go deeper on psychology and mechanism on this text to get the best potential of this lesson, the chart is only partial. It's good to print them and have them always on your desk while your trade So lets begin ! 1) maximum % loss reached per day = no more trade Taking losses put you angry, emotionally weak and provoke reaction most of the time. you will be in a mind to recover your losses. But learn when to stop is the best thing to do if you want to survive. You'll have to deal with losses literally everyday of your trading career. learn to tame/manage them and you'll be always safe. tips: cover your losses with your winning trade (by taking half) when you can. If you can't wait for the next day to trade. 2) adding to winners and don't touching at losers This is the simplified sentence of "let run your winning trade and cut your losses". this mean don't cut your loss manually because you'll always use SL. This means don't bother you with losses (again), just try to add some trade on your winning trade when you already took half. This is a good potential wealth accident 3) dont look at the price when you take a trade Don't stay blocked in front of your pc, go for other activity and keep an eye on the trade but not every seconds of every minutes of every hours ;) 4) don't chase the price (wait for a real opportunity, a real good plan), including fight the trend (don't force the market) High quality trade gives you High quality potential of win. Focus on the quality of your setup and then market will surely give you your wage. 5) Find the most profitable SL on each market to have a too short SL put you in losses more often, and when you have a too large SL you wait too much to take your win. Find the optimal SL for each market (ex: personally I use around 200 pips SL on each of my forex trade. Sometimes a little less, sometimes a little more but I try to have the optimal SL that gives me the optimal potential of winning rate. 6) no emotions, you win it's good, you lose it's ok The market isn't your psycholog, you'll trade very bad and make a lot of errors if you have emotions while taking loss and wins (try to avoid them, emotions is human but get outside of the market when you feel your emotion taking control of you trading). Don't rationalise every losses. (try to find the errors to upgrade your trading style but understand that sometimes market is simply irrational) 7) don't take a trade on the same market immediatly after taking some loss. refers to rule 2 and 4. wait some hours or some days. Focus on finding other opportunities,you'll always find opportunity on the market. don't torture yourself if you don't took a trade at time or if you lose it and can't retry 8) avoid following other ideas ideally make yours to become a better trader. 9) trade like a robot (no bad / sad moon, no angry, no revenge trade) refers to rule 6. Even a small thing (like a dispute with a friend) can make you sink into the wall. Be totally calm and without aftertoughts 10)stay humble or the market will humble you be satisfied with what you got by the market. if you did your average weekly performance be satisfied, if you make more be satisfied, if you make less be satisfied. 11)Make the choice to don't trade is also trading when you feel bad about a trade (not sure) and you don't take it you preserve your capital. so you avoid loss. but don't be extreme and avoid every trade. it's exceptional 12) follow the trend trend continuation trader have best result then countertrend traders. refers to rule 4, don't try to find every tops and bottom, If you found a reversal it's ok but don't focus on them. principally use trend continuation method. If you have something to add on this chart tell me and i'll be glad to add it. comment if you have some question, i'll be happy to answer with my little experience
Education
by jeanneymar011001
The Secrets to Forex & Miller's Planet (pt.3)You must read the preceding parts first. This one is a real doozy. Watch your reading comprehension levels go up in realtime. ------------------------------ "Very, very few people could appreciate the bubble. That's the nature of bubbles – they're mass delusions." - Buffett Last time we talked about how people who speculate are inherently delusional and are all in the process of losing; usually just money. The only way to 'win at losing' is to survive the delusion game by understanding the players and their psychology; not by guessing if price will be higher or lower in 10 years. When you survive, you are rewarded; all the money from big losers goes to the remaining players at the table. That's the derivatives, near zero-sum market in a nutshell. Sometimes players take their winnings and walk away, sometimes new players join the table. But in the end, 'the bucks are all that matter, everything else is just conversation.' The charts, the econ news, the geopolitical shocks... they only matter insofar as they influence the psychology of the players at the table. This is why you have to align your trading philosophy with player psychology first, and at the same time, reduce your risk presence when you take 'bets' in the market. Think of 'reducing risk presence' as surviving or holding on and think of 'surviving' as taking a piece of the pie from the losers when they hit zero. Remember, markets existed long before Adam Smith 'invented' capitalism. The original merchants and traders achieved longterm profitability by two methods: collusion, or by navigating wars, famine, oppression... Things haven't changed as much as you might think. Chapter 1: The Margin of Psychology Now, after the 2 parts, you've probably had enough of this distilled pseudo-academic fluff and you're ready for the valuable details. Too bad chief, here's another fluffy paragraph. Again, get used to losing. In the last part, I ended it by questioning if disorder can be consistent enough to be orderly. Now, we don't have to assume an orderly interpretation of disorder. It's proven by the presence of profitable traders/investors. The household names like Buffett and Soros. They operated, to a degree, on something investors call a 'margin of safety.' Which is: 'the intrinsic value versus the current or last price offer.' This is similar to what I've been presenting all along, only I disregard this Plato-like intrinsic value notion; please refer to my part 2 sectioned 'Emergence of Estimation' and read through 'Fact, Fiction, & Forecast' if you want the full take on this. Using fair value, or the center of price gravity, or more simply: 'resilient value;' especially when we are talking about derivatives and forex, serves as a better frame of mind. Because.. value only exists in the mind in a near zero-sum game. But thanks to psychology, there is some element of order present in the otherwise disorderly markets. You can worry about the ethical issues of big zero-sum money games later, after you can afford to read Das Kapital on your yacht. Chapter 2: Counting Cost I have spent a long time trying to find reliable patterns or orderly events in derivative markets. I have used or tested over 3000 indicators, experts, or scripts. So many that my MT4 terminal stopped showing them and I had to start an indicator genocide worthy of a binding UN resolution. Countless all-nighters across both small and large forums evaluating both the popular and wildly unconventional strategies and theories of forex. Books, videos, etc. 4, 5, 6 years and on. The stranger and more contrarian the idea, the more interested I became. More interesting to me than the idea itself was the line of thinking that created the idea in the first place. Why did retail traders think this way? Why did commercial traders think this other way? I was able to both regard and disregard the most qualified, and do the same for the least qualified. It's not a surprising lesson, but you have to go out of your comfort zones and destroy your biases to learn valuable things. Peter Thiel's contrarian thinking runs on this kinda stuff. Think about what has happened in the past several years. Contrarian thinking can turn idiots into geniuses these days. Chapter 3: Hidden vs Too Close to See Eventually, I stopped looking for a hidden far-off solution and started looking closer. You ever search your house to find your lost car keys only to later realize it was in your jacket pocket all along? Too poor to have a house, a car, or a jacket? Well, then keep reading. So I started looking at the in-betweens. What's as close as possible to the decision making agent itself? The first finding is that charts rarely have clear patterns, but human minds often do. From then on, research became straightforward and fruitful. How do I turn that theory into something that makes money, or at least doesn't lose money? I found the major candidates, the independent variables that create these flashes of order, these predictable events or parameters. It's not perfectly rigid, but its the next best thing in the highly volatile world of forex. Chapter 4: Executing 66 Orders First off, it's not as simple as a single mind's biases resulting in huge moves on a chart. To use a basic military analogy, you have to think in terms of a chain of command. From a few big 'minds' to many small 'minds.' Or, you have to follow the killchain step by step. From psychological origination to execution. Obviously, execution is when the order is filled and liable to p&l. We have lots of charting and analytical tools for market movement and execution. But what is the origination? How do you properly connect them? Can you chart or summarize origination and its 'plane?' So far I've talked a lot about psychology, but not much about specific biases relevant to forex. Or how a collection of 'psychologies' in the 'real world' might constitute a broader social factor, which, as a unit of analysis, goes on to influence markets in predictable ways. Does a commercial fund have biases? Does a central bank have biases? Does Wall Street have different biases than the City? Four broad but related questions: What is psychological origination and why do social factors matter? Based on the above, how do you setup or build an 'orderly' chart to find that resilient value? How do you use that knowledge to better manage risk and reduce uncertainty? And by extension, how exactly does that make you a more profitable trader? These questions will be fully addressed across the next several parts (maybe 7 or 8 more). I'm going to skip a deep dive into the first question for now, so you don't get too bogged down on the abstract thinking stuff, and instead mix it a bit with something familiar and more visual in question 2. For the rest of this article, we gotta talk timeframes and contracts first. Chapter 5: Murph's Law Time matters in forex. It matters a lot, and in ways some of you probably have yet to consider. In markets and finance, time shapes the parameters of most contracts. I would use a long analogy from Interstellar and Miller's planet (just watch the movie), but the key here is that: SOME RISK IS NEARLY GUARANTEED (written into the contract) while SOME RISK IS TIED TO SPECULATION ONLY. It's the difference between limited risk that is insured by the past versus unlimited risk that exists only via the future (you can have both as well). Up until now, we have dealt with the second, and not the first. Forex standards and practices (de facto contract rules), give us the first. Let me introduce timeframes, and then return to this so everything connects neatly. There are many different approaches to categorizing timeframes. By the common candlebar duration (1h, 4h, D; in other words it's categorized specifically by the 24hr clock); group A , or by abstract accumulation (like renko or heatmaps or orderbook data); group B . Now, the latter is a loose fit for a timeframe concept, it can be discrete and confusing, but you can argue 'realtime' or 'all-time' as a timeframe in itself. I won't be discussing realtime very much, and I strongly recommend you read the disclaimer far below if you are a crypto trader or have access to prime data or level two data in general. IF you are a forex trader that fits into group B, let's say a Renko trader, then you need not worry about the indicators or models I present. However, I've only known one successful Renko trader, and he had custom designed analytics. So good luck with Renko, gentlemen. I will focus on the group A category of timeframes: OHLC, Henken, line, etc. Everything that follows will be based on those. Chapter 6: Don't Fail Science Class The more you think of markets by real life principles, the clearer everything becomes. Which is why I want to explain timeframes by analogy. You could argue that markets share some basic similarities, at least from a layman's impression, to classical and quantum mechanics. The smaller the timeframe, the more random and chaotic they appear. And vice-versa. The center of price gravity at higher timeframes is more resilient to chaotic bits of new information. It's more certain . To use Bohm's term, you could argue its 'enfolding' or 'enfolded.' That while the general state of things is a chaotic flowing river, whirlpools with a set of persistent parameters can still exist in those rivers. All this really means is that different timeframes/sessions/days require different indicators and/or applications of those indicators. In addition, a full risk management approach takes into account the pairs/currencies chosen as well since their behavior may vary (choosing the river), and the nature of the contract itself (does it have a waterfall or extend forever?). Simple summary: some things are more certain at long-term timeframes and some things are more uncertain at short-term timeframes . Most of you will already know this. Chapter 7: Slaves to the Timezones When I'm talking about short-term timeframes and long-term timeframes, I mean intra-day versus weekly or monthly. Technically you could trade something like the 4h or daily within a single day. (but to avoid confusion, I want to focus on timeframes as the periods from which you open and close positions, not the duration of the candlebar). In other words, opening and closing positions within the 24 hour period (from open to market close). Versus. Positions held across multiple days/weeks. This is very important because they are effectively different types of market contracts because of the risk of rollover. (unless you have an Islamic account) In general: IF YOU ARE HOLDING POSITIONS ACROSS MULTIPLE WEEKS, you need to have either a genius technical or fundamental system OR, you need to be designing your trades with carry conditions in mind. 99% of you will fit the latter. Inevitably, this means your long term risk management must be quite different than short term risk management; particularly in the weighting of seasonality models and interest rates. I'll explain this stuff in the next article, but for now, make a selection: Imagine owning a stock that pays you a dividend (😏), now imagine owning a stock that pays no dividend (😴), and now imagine owning a stock where you pay the company a dividend (😂). Keep your "obvious" selection in mind, because it's gonna upset retail paradigms when I tell you why you're trading the wrong pairs on the wrong timeframes. See you next time. ------------------------------------ DISCLAIMER: Now, I should've mentioned this earlier but IF you are a cryptocurrency trader, and some of you reading this may very well be, let this be clear: I did not design these articles for your consumption. Though crypto is arguably a currency, it's core mechanics are different, as is the psychology of the players involved and the market structure. The legal, tax, and broader financial components vary (the nature of the contracts, the timezone/session influences). Indeed, regulation is the main fundamental in cryptocurrency right now, making it a market potentially susceptible to a near-total collapse (at least for blocks of investors) depending on the providence of your broker or income tax obligations.
Education
by CountofCoins
My Trading StrategyFirst of all it is always best to have a trading strategy before entering a trade as I have made many mistakes in the past with margin trading and I found this way is the most effortless and least straining psychologically method. As I believe this is a huge growth industry, currently I use a Ledger, which are readily available and a great way to store your currency. Replacing the popular margin trading with the more stable 'growth over time method' is safer and won't have you checking your phone every two minutes, checking prices.. For reference currently I plan on holding my cryptocurrency for 20+ years, and passing the ledger onto my family or my kids, for their benefit at the time. I put the most emphasis on the psychological aspect as most trading does take a toll on your wellbeing and state of mind, while simply riding the ups and downs of the market is very satisfying. Constructive criticism / feedback encouraged! Buy and HODL!
BITFINEX:ETHUSDEducation
by Bixley
6
EURJPY psychology can we accept that 1% loss ? so this breakdown shows 2 outcomes and what is possible in both situation and your trading psychology behind both sets up ? can you accept this 1% loss knowing that this trade shows and lines up with the higher time frames ? and seeing how we got there with some strong momentum would this put you of this trade ? biggest issue behind trading falls from your emotions we wouldn't take this trade if we haven't risk correctly or we haven't respected what the markets give us or we revenge trade after taking loss after loss accept any outcome and train your mind to cut your looses and ride your winners happy trading :)
Education
by LucasMatthew
GBPAUD trading corrections and understanding the middle sectionhi guys so a quick lesson on trading corrections if we can confirm a middle section within a pattern this has a higher probability on what price will do next we then filter on the lower time frames for a tighter entry we only trade in probability and we accept any outcome with any trade we place and having the right psychology we make you a better trading in the long run :) hope you all have a great new year guys and girls stay safe :)
Education
by LucasMatthew
Thinking big picture - BTC AnalysisHey there, I will say, that compared to so many on this platform, I won´t dive into all these technical indicators this time and will keep it very simple, yet so much more exciting. So we have been consolidating between 6000 and 8000$ for a few weeks now and had mostly sideways price action. On this chart you see trend-based fibonacci extension using the past bearmarket of 2014-15 by connecting the high of 1200 and the low at 152 on the Bitstamp exchange. As you see you get a almost perfect prediction of the 19980 top in 2017 with some key support and resistance levels for the past bullmarket and bearkmarket of 2018. We are now hovering at a key level, the 5.618. As you might know, the 6.18 levels tend to be one of the, if not the most important levels of fibonacci retracements and extensions. Not only that this level is of high significance but further we now touched the highly psychological and technical area of around 6000$. I will not call for a bottom, but I say with the utmost confidence that the price levels we are at now, are extremely important regarding technical analysis. If you are open for more information about how to draw and use these lines, please check out my YouTube channel "Enlightened Trading". Also there you will get a deeper perspective on other charts which I have been looking at. So don`t miss out. Wish you a happy new year and to make some gainzzz, personally, physically and financially. All the best, Enlightened Trading
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by EnlightenedTrading
Market Cycle of EmotionsI'm feeling depressed, angry, and doubtful about my BTS position. I can feel the emotion creeping in. I can feel the thoughts coming on: "sell now, you can find another coin. This coin is dead." In the cycle of market psychology, it could be the time for me to buy more. If BTS was at .20 I'd probably have a million and one emotional reasons to buy more. We have retraced 98% from ATH. What an opportunity! Horizontal lines are support levels. Who knows? Good luck.
POLONIEX:BTSUSDLong
by jjjk00
3
AUDCAD | LONG | Update v1.3My grandpa taught me to buckle up and let the ride be what the ride may be. Sometimes we can all leave on a journey together and end up at the same destination but with different outcomes. We are now 50% into our profit target. .92 has been the level of interest for many weeks and there really isn't much more to say then the man holding the tail and a leg of the same elephant will have two different perspectives. What the hell does that mean? All these fan boys posting every which way the market farts . Pick a side, always scalp in the same direction of your longer term view and never underestimate the power of simplicity. Folks, there is no holy grail, with proper money management and patience, we as retail investors can and will prevail. Stay fluid ya'll
Long
by theyfollowme