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October 7 PlanAlongside news that President Trump halted relief talks with Democrats until after the election, markets fell apart, retesting the prior week balance and the VWAP anchored from the September highs. Since the cash close, markets have recovered substantially off their overnight lows alongside comments Trump could send $1,200 checks to Americans. The action has been constructive and we're now sitting right on top of a major high-volume concentration that denotes recent value and should allow responsive sellers favorable entry if there has been an actual change in conviction. Auctioning through the high-volume area and recovering the SOC (Scene Of The Crime) would increase the odds we test the 61.8% retracement (i.e., $3,440). Overall, remaining above the $3,370 high-volume area is bullish. Below $3,370 is bearish. This will likely be a go, no-go level in today's trade. Note: Prior to the sell-off, the market was showing signs of a balance-area break-out, piercing through the "Ledge". The fact that it was building value north of the ledge gave initiative longs confidence to discover higher. Given that the news event brought us back into range, there's potential that the responsive participants auction price lower to the other end of balance, near the $3,320 area (i.e., a boundary of the low-volume area which denotes upside directional conviction). Defense of the low-volume area is paramount. Should price probe into and auction through the area, then a likely target would be the recent $3,198 swing low.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by Physik
September 27 Market Update | Technical, Fundamental, NewsDescription: An analysis for the week ahead. Points of Interest: $3,200 High Volume Area; Friday’s Divergence From Value; Balance Area. Technical: Broad-market equity indices ended lower with the S&P 500 correcting as low as $3,200. Recapping last week’s action, Monday's test of the $3,200 high-volume area offered responsive buyers an opportunity to get in at favorable prices. Buying continued through Tuesday, before resisting an area of resting liquidity at $3,300. After disappointments in business activity data and stimulus talks, on heavy-volume and supportive delta, Wednesday's liquidation erased the entire week’s gains. Alongside improvements in home sale data, mega-caps and technology led the market higher, through Friday's close, away from value. Overall, in the bigger picture, the market is churning above $3,200, the site of a large high-volume area which denotes the market’s recent perception of value. When prices trade to a high-volume area, on a swing up auction, then trade should slow allowing responsive longs a good place to enter. Should prices trade and spend time below this area, then perceptions have changed and longs are no longer favorable, at least in the near term. Scroll to bottom of document for non-profile charts. Fundamental: John Authers, a Bloomberg columnist, suggested gold is falling due to rise in real yields. “When real yields rise then gold, which pays no income, can be expected to fall. This is true even if real yields are rising from deeply negative territory. To explain the intuition behind this, gold is widely regarded as a hedge against central banking irresponsibility. Recent speculation is that the Fed may not print money and cut rates with quite the gay abandon that had been assumed. This may or may not be good news for the U.S. economy, but it raises real yields and for investors in gold and in risk assets, who might benefit from currency debasement, it is definitely bad news.” bloom.bg Simply put, the theory that the Federal Reserve exhausted itself has buoyed real yields, which have an inverse relationship to metals. Key Events: Monday: Fed Mester Speech. Tuesday: Goods Trade Balance, Fed Williams Speech, Fed Harker Speech, CB Consumer Confidence, Fed Williams Speech, Presidential Debate. Wednesday: MBA Mortgage Applications, ADP Employment Change, GDP Growth Rate, Core PCE Prices QoQ Final, Corporate Profits, GDP Price Index, PCE Prices QoQ Final, Pending Home Sales, EIA Cushing Crude Oil Stocks Change, EIA Distillate Stocks Change, Fed Kashkari Speech, Fed Kaplan Speech. Thursday: Core PCE Price Index YoY, PCE Price Index YoY, Continuing Jobless Claims, Core PCE Price Index MoM, Initial Jobless Claims, Jobless Claims 4-Week Average, PCE Price Index MoM, Personal Income MoM, Personal Spending MoM, Markit Manufacturing PMI Final, ISM Manufacturing PMI, Construction Spending MoM, ISM Manufacturing Prices, Fed Williams Speech. Friday: Non-Farm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, Average Hourly Earnings MoM, Average Hourly Earnings YoY, Average Weekly Hours, Non-Farm Payrolls Private, Participation Rate, Fed Harker Speech, Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final, Factory Orders MoM, Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations Final, Michigan Inflation Expectations Final. Recent News: Fed publishes scenarios for the second round of 2020 stress tests, a credit positive. bit.ly Sea level rise increases credit risk for U.S. coastal states and local governments. bit.ly Airlines are calling for COVID-19 coronavirus tests before all international flights. reut.rs Intel Corporation (NASDAQ: INTC) gets U.S. licenses to supply to Huawei. reut.rs China air force video appears to show a simulated attack on U.S. base on Guam. reut.rs How secular shifts will force the U.S. commercial real estate market to adapt. bit.ly Government aid and stock gains pushed U.S. wealth to pre-pandemic levels. reut.rs As U.S. business activity loses momentum, home price inflation accelerates. reut.rs JPMorgan Chase & Co (NYSE: JPM) to pay nearly $1 billion in spoofing penalty. reut.rs Higher inflation regime in medium term after decade of persistent undershooting. bit.ly A jump in U.S. coal railroad volumes, 2021 forecasts are driving up sentiment. bit.ly Global banks seek to contain damage over $2 trillion of suspicious transfers. reut.rs Amazon Inc (NASDAQ: AMZN) pushes security with indoor drones, car alarms. reut.rs Crude, product prices diverge as market looks to U.S. stimulus, COVID situation. bit.ly IEA analysis of innovation in batteries and electricity storage, based on patent data. bit.ly U.S. upgrades accounted for three-fourths of affected debt in the latest period. bit.ly Hedge funds see opportunity in the New York, San Francisco apartment markets. reut.rs Low interest rates create pension and investment challenges but lower debt costs. bit.ly China is on course for record LNG imports as industries recover and expand. reut.rs General Electric Co (NYSE: GE) plans to stop making coal-fired power plants. reut.rs COVID ‘firepower’: Britain imposed six month curbs against a second virus wave. reut.rs Microsoft Corporation’s (NASDAQ: MSFT) acquisition of ZeniMax credit positive. bit.ly Bombardier Inc’s (OTC: BDRBF) agreement to sell transport unit credit negative. bit.ly Coronavirus resets Latin American economies at lower base, driving asset risks. bit.ly California banning sale of new gasoline-powered passenger vehicles in 2035. reut.rs Data is suggesting that splits fundamentally change how stocks perform. bit.ly The corporate bond issuance boom may steady credit quality, on balance. bit.ly Per earnings and interest rate forecasts, valuations not supported fundamentally. bit.ly Data expected to confirm sentiment eased across most European countries. bit.ly Wary buyers and softer foreign demand, likely raised Japan’s unemployment rate. bit.ly On balance, 2020’s bond issuance boom enhanced overall financial flexibility. bit.ly Demographics and the rising cost of funding retirement may affect valuations. bloom.bg Key Metrics: Sentiment: 24.9% Bullish, 29.1% Neutral, 46.0% Bearish as of 9/23/2020. bit.ly Gamma Exposure: (Trending Lower) 1,152,474,010 as of 9/25/2020. bit.ly Dark Pool Index: (Trending Higher) 42.2% as of 9/25/2020. bit.ly Product Snapshot: S&P 500 (ES): TVC:SPX AMEX:SPY TVC:NDX NASDAQ:QQQ TVC:RUT AMEX:IWM Gold (GC): AMEX:GLD AMEX:GDX TVC:GOLD Crude Oil (CL): TVC:USOIL AMEX:USL AMEX:DBO AMEX:USO Treasury Bonds (ZB): NASDAQ:TLT Disclaimer: This is a page where I look to share knowledge and keep track of trades. If questions, concerns, or suggestions, feel free to comment. I think everyone can improve, especially me. In no way should this post be construed as investment advice.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by Physik
7
July 26 Market Update | Technical, Fundamental, NewsDescription: An analysis for the week ahead. Points of Interest: Prior-Balance; Weak Highs and Lows; Dull, Emotional Participation; Nasdaq Weakness; Financials Intact. Technical: Broad-market equity indices struggled to hold onto recent gains, evidenced by the failed continuation higher. Recapping last week’s action, on Monday, after a good amount of volatility contraction, the S&P 500 opened inside prior balance and tested lower, before rotating higher, into the gap zone left from the late February sell-off. Pre-open, on Tuesday, the market rallied, further discovering prices up into the gap zone. After the U.S. cash open, Tuesday’s activity was reminiscent of rebalancing to recent overextension. On news that China would react to the closure of its consulate in Houston, Texas, Wednesday’s session saw prices push lower overnight, before turning and balancing out higher, into the close. On more news regarding geopolitics and initial jobless claims turning higher, Thursday’s session experienced a news-driven, emotional liquidation, with the Nasdaq leading lower. Friday’s session opened near a high-volume area, balancing out and trading responsively, before closing and accepting prices lower. Looking beyond broad market indices, the innovation-driven, technology-based sectors are showing signs of relative weakness, while other sectors, such as industrials, energy, and financials are finding more support. Overall, the S&P is in balance. Absent positive news regarding geopolitical tensions, monetary policy, a vaccine, earnings, and stimulus, the market may find itself correcting through time, testing as low as the prior balance area, below $3,180, as more impactful earnings are released. Scroll to bottom of document for non-profile charts. Key Events: Earnings; Durable Good Orders; Consumer Confidence; Initial Claims; GDP; Personal Income; Personal Spending; Employment Cost Index; Consumer Sentiment. Fundamental: Big tech antitrust probe report from Congress expected early fall. reut.rs Nasdaq Composite, tech weakness comes alongside a weaker dollar. bit.ly 5 charts illustrating U.S. economic trends amid the coronavirus pandemic. cnb.cx General Motors Company (NYSE: GM), Volkswagen AG (OTC: VWAGY), Nissan Motor Co Ltd (OTC: NSANY) charge ahead with electric-vehicle plans. on.wsj.com Consulate closures mark escalation between U.S., China. reut.rs Boeing Co (NYSE: BA) to delay 777X as demand drops for big jets. fxn.ws Intel Corporation (NASDAQ: INTC) shares dive on manufacturing retreat. reut.rs American Express Company (NYSE: AXP) warns of slow spending recovery. reut.rs Inflation-adjusted bonds are currently priced for very low inflation. bit.ly Proposal to suspend certain payroll taxes is a high priority. bit.ly U.S. home prices, existing home sales rise toward records. bit.ly Tesla Inc (NASDAQ: TSLA) chose Texas for the new Cybertruck factory. reut.rs FDA orders unauthorized e-cigarettes removed from the market. bit.ly China’s regulators take over insurers, financial institutions to cut risks. bit.ly Supplemental unemployment benefits expire alongside new stimulus efforts. bit.ly Housing strengthens while mortgage forbearance continues to decline. bit.ly Biden may enact higher taxes, climate reform, and increased health care spending. bit.ly EU leaders have agreed on an $860 billion stimulus package. bit.ly Earnings beat expectations, but fundamentals remain weak. bit.ly Commercial real estate market slips despite Federal Reserve action. bit.ly The face value of defaulted non-financial corporate bonds jumped to a record. bit.ly American Airlines Group Inc (NASDAQ: AAL), United Airlines Holdings Inc (NASDAQ: UAL) to lay off workers. bit.ly Dell Technologies Inc’s (NYSE: DELL) VMware spin-off increases uncertainty. bit.ly U.S. global investment banks preserved capital strength in Q2 amid credit provisions. bit.ly UnitedHealth Group Inc’s (NYSE: UNH) earnings, lower leverage is credit positive. bit.ly Sentiment: 26.1% Bullish, 27.1% Neutral, 46.8% Bearish as of 7/22/2020. bit.ly Gamma Exposure: (Trending Lower) 1,281,189,859 as of 7/26/2020. bit.ly Dark Pool Index: (Trending Lower) 42.9% as of 7/26/2020. bit.ly Product Analysis: S&P 500 (ES): AMEX:SPY TVC:SPX Nasdaq 100 (NQ): NASDAQ:QQQ TVC:NDX Russell 2000 (RTY): AMEX:IWM TVC:RUT Gold (GC): AMEX:GLD AMEX:GDX Crude Oil (CL): AMEX:USO AMEX:DBO AMEX:USL Treasury Bonds (ZB): NASDAQ:TLT Disclaimer: This is a page where I look to share knowledge and keep track of trades. If questions, concerns, or suggestions, feel free to comment. I think everyone can improve, especially me. In no way should this post be construed as investment advice.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by Physik
July 18 Market Update | Technical, Fundamental, NewsDescription: An analysis for the week ahead. Points of Interest: S&P $3,200 Balance; February Gap; Nasdaq Weakness, Russell and Dow Strength. Technical: Broad-market equity indices balanced higher last week, evidenced by the responsive, tight trading range. Recapping last week’s action, on Monday, the S&P 500 gapped higher, outside of a prior balance area, but failed to continue, rotating back into the prior week’s range. Tuesday’s session continued Monday’s selling activity, but reversed just short of the prior balance area low. After news that Moderna Inc’s (NASDAQ: MRNA) COVID-19 coronavirus vaccine produced antibodies, Wednesday’s session saw prices pushing higher, gapping beyond Tuesday’s range. Buyers attempted to burst through the resting liquidity at $3,230, but failed with prices later following the Nasdaq’s relative weakness lower to close the overnight gap. After some mixed economic data, Thursday's session was dominated by responsive activity, balancing out near Wednesday’s v-bottom low, with sellers lacking conviction the most via the minimal excess low. Alongside monthly options expiry, Friday’s session continued Thursday’s tone with the intraday trading range remaining tight and responsive. Looking beyond broad market indices, the innovation-driven, technology-based sectors are showing signs of relative weakness, while other sectors, such as industrials, energy, and financials are rotating higher off recent support. Overall, the market is in a 3-day balance that it’s likely to break, come next week. Positive news regarding a vaccine, earnings, and stimulus may help further squeeze shorts as we look to fill the gap above, left from late February. Scroll to bottom of document for non-profile charts. Key Events: Earnings; Existing-Home Sales; New-Home Sales; Initial Claims. tmsnrt.rs Fundamental: Airline industry demand projected to surpass 2019 levels in 2023. bit.ly AMEX:JETS Travel industry seeks government assistance, tax breaks to spur trips. reut.rs Rocket Companies expects profit to surge ahead of the U.S. IPO. reut.rs Canadian wholesale trade posts largest jump in 17 years. reut.rs Flight to suburbs boosts homebuilding as consumer sentiment fades. reut.rs Europe meets on Recovery and Resilience Facility agreement. bit.ly 60% or large firms with sales over $2 billion expect growth to accelerate. bit.ly The U.S. ended Hong Kong’s special status to punish China. bloom.bg Applications for new home purchases rose 54.1% from a year ago. bit.ly Options on the Micro E-Mini S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 to arrive August, 31. bit.ly 84% of PPP loan recipients will exhaust funding by the first week of August. bit.ly 63% of small business owners say less than 75% of their revenue has returned. bit.ly $64 billion invested in North American startups, down 10% year-to-date. bit.ly Nasdaq optimism hits dangerous levels as tech becomes an attractive hedge. bit.ly $40-per-barrel not a sufficient clearing price for leveraged shale producers. bit.ly China bank lending hits record $1.72 trillion in first half after solid June. reut.rs Dominion Energy Inc (NYSE: D) to sell gas assets, cancel pipeline. bit.ly NYSE:D U.S. withdraws some underwriting requirements, a positive for payday lenders. bit.ly Increase in transactions suggests a rebound in Russia’s economy. bit.ly Acquisition of National General increases Allstate Corp’s (NYSE: ALL) leverage. bit.ly NYSE:ALL U.K. actions to buoy employment and businesses, mitigate prolonged shock. bit.ly Moderna Inc’s (NASDAQ: MRNA) vaccine elicited coronavirus antibodies. bloom.bg NASDAQ:MRNA Corporate credit quality improved in the week ending July 15. bit.ly U.S. and China tech cold war could cost the sector more than $3.5 trillion. bit.ly Canada is poaching tech talent from the U.S. via Express Entry program. bit.ly China shows economic recovery with 3.2% GDP growth in Q2. bit.ly U.S. manufacturing increased for the second month, by 5.4%. on.wsj.com The jobs market is poised to reverse May and June gains. bit.ly Charles Schwab Corporation (NYSE: SCHW) made less money despite adding assets. bit.ly NYSE:SCHW Coronavirus surge sparks worries over renewed lockdowns, global fuel demand. reut.rs China’s bull run could signal a Wall Street stampede. bit.ly Cuomo confirms New York City will enter the final phase of reopening Monday. on.mktw.net Brazil to allow citizens to withdraw from pension funds early. reut.rs Ally Financial Inc (NYSE: ALLY) delinquencies, charge-offs of auto loans improve. on.wsj.com NYSE:ALLY Hospitals may be falsely labeling COVID-19 coronavirus deaths. bit.ly Underwriting to come down according to JPMorgan Chase & Co (NYSE: JPM). bloom.bg NYSE:JPM Copper-to-gold ratio suggests rates should be higher than they currently are. bloom.bg Sentiment: 30.8% Bullish, 23.8% Neutral, 45.4% Bearish as of 7/18/2020. bit.ly Gamma Exposure: (Trending Lower) 2,257,721,540 as of 7/18/2020. bit.ly Dark Pool Index: (Trending Lower) 45.8% as of 7/18/2020. bit.ly Product Analysis: S&P 500 (ES): Nasdaq 100 (NQ): Russell 2000 (RTY): Gold (GC): Crude Oil (CL): Treasury Bonds (ZB): Disclaimer: This is a page where I look to share knowledge and keep track of trades. If questions, concerns, or suggestions, feel free to comment. I think everyone can improve, especially me. In no way should this post be construed as investment advice.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by Physik
9
July 5 Market Update | Technical, Fundamental, NewsDescription: An analysis for the week ahead. Points of Interest: Low-Volume Above $3,150; $3,200 Balance; Tech Overextension; Weakness In Financials, Energy. Technical: Broad-market equity indices one time framed higher last week, evidenced by the higher highs and lows on the daily time frame, and closed the week off near a resistive low-volume area. Recapping last week’s action, on Monday, the S&P 500 established a higher low, above the year-to-date volume weighted average price, and squeezed on good delta, through resting liquidity at and above $3,020. After Tuesday’s challenge higher, the S&P retested $3,100, a high-volume area, and balanced Wednesday, building value and acceptance of $3,100 as evidenced by the responsive participation intra-day. On Thursday, the U.S. economy added greater than expected payrolls, driving prices higher at the open, before establishing excess and fading to close the gap below. Overall, though extended, the market is at an important technical level. Breaking further into the prior low-volume resistance would point to a change in sentiment, quashing the initiative activity that drove prices lower in the first place. Looking beyond the broad market indices, the innovation-driven, technology-based sectors are extended while relatively weak sectors, such as energy and financials, suggest bigger selling may be around the corner. For a continuation higher, buyers must step up on dips and increase participation in search of higher prices, helping ensure value follows closely behind. Scroll to bottom of document for non-profile charts. Key Events: Non-Manufacturing Activity; Final Composite And Services PMI; Initial Claims; Wholesale Inventory; PPI; Consumer Credit; JOLTS. Fundamental: The Federal Reserve destroyed price discovery and delayed the inevitable. yhoo.it Boeing Co (NYSE: BA) placed final part orders for its 747 jumbo jets. fxn.ws NYSE:BA General Motors Company’s (NYSE: GM) China quarterly sales dropped 5%. fxn.ws NYSE:GM Global GDP to remain below pre-virus levels through most of next year. bit.ly The Federal Reserve looks to Australia’s central bank for rate strategy. on.wsj.com Airbus SE (OTC: EADSY) close to slashing jobs as output may drop 40%. reut.rs OTC:EADSY Democratic nominee Joe Biden to end most of President Trump’s tax cuts. cnb.cx Royal Dutch Shell plc (NYSE: RDS.A) to cut asset values by up to $22 billion. reut.rs NYSE:RDS.A Lululemon Athletica Inc (NASDAQ: LULU) to buy Mirror for $500 million. bit.ly NASDAQ:LULU By year end, corporate earnings may recover from the pandemic slump. bit.ly Key innovation principles for delivering net-zero emissions, per the IEA. bit.ly Laying out the worst-case scenario, a collapse of the financial system. bit.ly Q2 projections are miserable as average S&P 500 earnings may decline up to 45%. bit.ly The U.S. added 4.8M payrolls, while the unemployment rate shrunk to 11.1%. bit.ly Global refinery utilisation rates in 2021-2024 may be 3% lower relative to 2019. reut.rs Tesla Inc (NASDAQ: TSLA) beat analyst estimates for Q2 vehicle deliveries. reut.rs NASDAQ:TSLA Brazilian regulators halt Facebook Inc’s (NASDAQ: FB) payments service. bit.ly NASDAQ:FB Large U.S. banks pass the Fed's stress test, but must submit new capital plans. bit.ly AMEX:XLF ASEAN response mitigated economic damage, but unlikely to offset credit risks. bit.ly Sentiment: 22.2% Bullish, 32.0% Neutral, 45.9% Bearish as of 6/27/2020. bit.ly Gamma Exposure: (Trending Lower) 3,223,157,668 as of 7/2/2020. bit.ly Dark Pool Index: (Trending Lower) 46% as of 7/2/2020. bit.ly Product Analysis: S&P 500 (ES): TVC:SPX AMEX:SPY Nasdaq 100 (NQ): TVC:NDX NASDAQ:QQQ Russell 2000 (RTY): TVC:RUT AMEX:IWM Gold (GC): AMEX:GLD Crude Oil (CL): AMEX:USO AMEX:DBO AMEX:USL Treasury Bonds (ZB): NASDAQ:TLT Disclaimer: This is a page where I look to share knowledge and keep track of trades. If questions, concerns, or suggestions, feel free to comment. I think everyone can improve, especially me. In no way should this post be construed as investment advice.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by Physik
June 21 Market Update | Technical, Fundamental, NewsDescription: An analysis for the week ahead. Points of Interest: 4-Day Island; Gap; 4-Day Balance. Technical: Mixed messages provided after equity indices broke the short-term, momentum driven uptrend, and corrected on June 11. Overall, the island of balance left behind, after the market sold-off, is still intact and will offer resistance on upward auctions. If the market trades through that area, then sentiment has changed and the initiative activity that drove prices lower is no longer present. Monday displayed a rejection of lower prices after overnight activity started off weak, on a gap down, but quickly corrected into the regular trading session, impulsing higher, through the $3,000 S&P 500 level. Tuesday’s trade blew through most of the resting offers overnight, into a low-volume area, on a record increase in U.S. retail sales. Later on, after a choppy open, the market established good excess on the lower extreme, and pinned near the $3,100 level. Wednesday and Thursday’s action was fairly muted as the market continued digesting the upward correction going into Friday’s simultaneous expiry of options and futures tied to index products. Despite gapping to the high end of the week-long balance overnight, Friday’s trade was volatile and lacked conviction to continue into the resting liquidity at and above the $3,135 area. Putting everything together, the picture points to the potential for a volatile week ahead. With the removal of S&P open interest, gamma (i.e., the sensitivity of options to changes in underlying price) imbalances and hedging activity could heighten volatility. If liquidation continues into the coming week and value moves lower, then the near-term bullish narrative is no longer intact. Scroll to bottom of document for non-profile charts. Key Events: Existing Home Sales; National Activity Index; Building Permits; PMIs; New Home Sales; Home Prices; Q1 GDP; Durable Goods; Trade Balance; Trade Inventories; Initial Claims; Continued Claims; Personal Income; Personal Consumption; PCE; UoM Sentiment June Final. Fundamental: Mortgage applications jumped for the 11th week in a row. bit.ly Traffic at supermarkets and merchandise stores near normal. bit.ly Oil prices will average less than $60 to ensure production. reut.rs U.S. and Canadian oil and gas rig count falls to record lows. reut.rs On June 26, Russell will implement a record index reconstitution. bit.ly China stressed as repo rates and yields climb, liquidity thins out. bloom.bg Fed shifts away from bond ETFs to a special, diversified index. bloom.bg ECB’s boost to pandemic bond buying isn’t enough. bloom.bg No indication BOE will renew its asset-purchase program. bloom.bg Companies to ditch revenue focus, hone in on market share growth. bit.ly Facebook Inc (NASDAQ: FB) acquired a mapping technology company. bit.ly NASDAQ:FB Square Inc (NYSE: SQ) acquired a Spanish P2P payments app. bit.ly NYSE:SQ Apple Inc (NASDAQ: AAPL) closes stores due to resurgence of COVID-19. reut.rs NASDAQ:AAPL Kroger Co (NYSE: KR) posts stronger sales, profit amid pandemic. on.wsj.com NYSE:KR Unemployment claims decline, but at a slower rate. bit.ly Shopper engagement is higher with mobile ecommerce apps. bit.ly High-yield downgrades drop from March and April readings. bit.ly MIT, Harvard, and others on how capitalism will emerge after COVID-19. bit.ly Startups focused on saving time and money may thrive. bit.ly Walmart Inc (NYSE: WMT), Shopify Inc (NYSE: SHOP) partnership a credit positive. bit.ly NYSE:WMT Facebook Inc’s (NASDAQ: FB) Brazil payments service cuts into bank profits. bit.ly NASDAQ:FB GrubHub Inc (NYSE: GRUB) acquisition a credit negative for U.S. online food-delivery. bit.ly NYSE:GRUB EU solvency rule amendments to improve bank capital ratios and support the economy. bit.ly No-deal Brexit to compound risks for sectors hit by pandemic disruption. bit.ly Americans increased spending while working from home. bit.ly France lifts most of its COVID-19 restrictions. on.ft.com AT&T Inc’s (NYSE: T) sale of Warner Bros. would fetch around $4 billion. cnb.cx NYSE:T USD to weaken as Fed commits to QE infinity. bit.ly ARM-based Macs to expand Apple Inc’s (NASDAQ: AAPL) PC market share. bit.ly NASDAQ:AAPL U.S. natural gas extraction efficiency improves, increasing production rates. bit.ly AMEX:UNG Air maintenance firms brace for a 75% sales decline this year. reut.rs The U.S. weighs a $1 trillion infrastructure plan to spur the economy back to life. bloom.bg Loan default rate approaches 4% on imminent energy bankruptcies. bit.ly Airports resilient despite pandemic fallout. bit.ly AMEX:JETS Sentiment: 24.4% Bullish, 27.8% Neutral, 47.8% Bearish as of 6/20/2020. bit.ly Gamma Exposure: (Trending Lower) 2,194,659,186 as of 6/20/2020. bit.ly Dark Pool Index: (Trending Higher) 52.5% as of 6/20/2020. bit.ly Product Analysis: S&P 500 (ES): AMEX:SPY TVC:SPX Nasdaq 100 (NQ): NASDAQ:QQQ TVC:NDX Russell 2000 (RTY): AMEX:IWM TVC:RUT Gold (GC): AMEX:GLD Crude Oil (CL): AMEX:USO AMEX:DBO AMEX:USL Treasury Bonds (ZB): NASDAQ:TLT Disclaimer: This is a page where I look to share knowledge and keep track of trades. If questions, concerns, or suggestions, feel free to comment. I think everyone can improve, especially me. In no way should this post be construed as investment advice.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by Physik
AUD/NZD Volume Profile AnalysisIdentify the Trend T he first thing to do is to identify whether there is a rotation or a trend. In this case it is pretty simple. The 1st VWAP deviation (Weekly VWAP) is moving upwards. This means that the price and volumes are shifting upwards and that there is an uptrend. In this case you could also tell by just looking at the price action without using the VWAP. Sometimes it is not so clear as here though… Volume Profile analysis Let’s now have a look some more into the volume distribution in this trend area. I used my Flexible Volume Profile to the whole trend area to identify places where significant volumes were traded. There are two significant volume areas visible. The first one (around 1.0580) corresponds with the support from the VWAP Trend setup (the picture above). As the price was moving upwards, buyers were adding to their long positions in those heavy volume areas. It is likely that when there is a pullback into those heavy volume areas, buyers will want to defend their longs and they will try to push the price upwards from those areas again. I hope you guys liked today’s analysis! Let me know what you think in the comments below! Stay safe and happy trading! -Dale
by Trader_Dale
EUR/GBP: Intraday Analysis With Volume Profile 📉Today, I will focus on the intraday analysis of the EUR/GBP. What caught my eye here was a rotation from which a strong sell-off started yesterday. Why it caught my eye? Because in a rotation, heavy volumes are usually traded (accumulated). Big trading institutions need a rotation to accumulate their big trading positions. They need time and liquidity. The rotation takes some time so that suits them. When a price rotates then it also means that the market found its fair price (fair value) – at least temporarily. And this means traders are willing to buy and sell there = there is liquidity. When there is a sell-off after such a rotation, then it indicates that the big guys (institutions) were building up their positions in that rotation. They were doing so unnoticed and without their intentions being revealed. After that, they started manipulating the price aggressively (with market orders) to start a trend. Volume Profile analysis When I see a rotation from which a trend starts, then I look into that rotation using my Flexible Volume Profile. I look for a place where the volumes were the heaviest because this is the place where the big guys placed most of their positions. This is an important place, because when the price makes a pullback into this area again, then it is likely that those big guys will start defending their positions. How will they defend them? They will start to sell aggressively again to push the price downwards. And that’s what I want to see. That’s what I want to participate in! So, what I do is that I wait for the pullback and then enter a short from the place where they accumulated most of their positions. In this case, it is 0.8933. This is currently the strong intraday resistance on EUR/GBP. I hope you guys liked today’s intraday analysis. Let me know what you think in the comments below! Stay safe and happy trading! -Dale
by Trader_Dale
Mar 8 Session Profile | /ES S&P 500 E-Mini FuturesDescription: An analysis for this historic week ahead. Points of Interest: Fib clusters at 2710, 200 moving average, failure to get above key retracement levels, Friday $VIX pop to $50+ and break out of balance. Technical: Failed to get above key retracement levels (i.e., 50% and 61.8%). Poor structure (untested POCs or the levels where most amount of the volume was traded -- fairest price to transact) created by the market getting too long, beneath /ES February high, were erased in the initial correction, while /NQ still has untested POCs below from 8070 to 7550. The bounce on Feb 28 into a balance zone failed to take out a VPOC at the 3140.50 level. In my opinion, the virus-related news is the match that lit the fire (i.e., this was coming). Friday, we finally broke out of -- gapped below -- a multi-day balance that was trending up, mechanically, along a slanted trendline. My belief, going into last week was that we would get a recovery similar to what was seen in the beginning of 2018. I now think the circumstances warrant a move lower, especially considering Friday’s value area and POC which were at the lows, prior to the end-of-day rally which indicated the potential for maybe a continuation into the next session, all-else-equal. I’ve studied that downmoves will rarely end until we put in some sort of excess low. We went from bear to balance to bear again with Sunday night taking out the Feb 28 lows. Sunday’s open gapped and traded below October’s low, accepting the initial downmove price spike on Feb 28. Downside /ES Fib Target 2710 based on a cluster of multiple extensions and retracements meeting in one place. Time from Feb 20 top to Feb 28 bottom = Time from Jan 18 top to Feb 18 bottom Time from Dec 18 bottom to Feb 20 top = Time from Mar 09 bottom To Apr 10 high /NQ POCs: NQ1! Index Analysis: $RUT: TVC:RUT $NDX: TVC:NDX $DJI: TVC:DJI $NYA: TVC:NYA Fundamental: U.S. Expansion: “Economic activity expanded at a modest to moderate rate over the past several weeks, according to the majority of Federal Reserve Districts” (bit.ly). "Outlooks for the near-term were mostly for modest growth with the coronavirus and the upcoming presidential election cited as potential risks." Employment: “The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits fell last week, suggesting the labor market was on solid footing despite the coronavirus outbreak, which has stoked financial market fears of a recession and prompted an emergency interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve,” according to Reuters (reut.rs). Talk Of Credit Crisis: According to Bloomberg, the fear that a coronavirus-panic and slowdown may cause a credit crisis was ignited this week after financial conditions tightened despite the Federal Reserve’s emergency rate cut (bloom.bg). Now, according to CME Group’s FedWatch tool, the market is pricing in a 100% chance that rates will be cut at the next Fed meeting (bit.ly). Adding, Bloomberg suggests that signs of stress in the credit market are apparent through multiple channels; credit card and loan delinquencies are appearing on the consumer lending front, while across the world, “Non-bank companies have drastically upped their leverage since the last crisis, as treasurers have taken advantage of historically low interest rates” (bloom.bg). The same article alleges that this increase is debt and leverage is a problem, even in a low rate environment, due to the “profitability drought that is making it harder for companies to service debts.” “V-Shaped” Recovery: Despite the rapid increase in coronavirus cases (bit.ly) across the rest of the world, China seems to be recovering. According to Bloomberg, “Reservations for domestic flights and hotels in China are recovering from a coronavirus-induced slump as people return to work across the nation” (bloom.bg). Additionally, Chinese cargo flows at ports are recovering, according to Freight Waves (bit.ly). Slowdown Arrives Elsewhere: Countries like Italy have seen a rapid rise in deaths (nbcnews.to) and international travel is getting beat hard; “Travel analytics company ForwardKeys found that flight bookings to Italy fell by nearly 139% in the final week of February, compared with a year ago, the Washington Post reported,” according to Axios (bit.ly). The slowdown in travel is expected to cause almost $113 billion in loses for airlines, according to Guardian (bit.ly). Fear Prevails: Some speculation around last week’s sell-off after the emergency rate cut was fed-induced fear -- “A quick response might exacerbate the market sell-off because it could suggest panic on the part of policymakers. It may also be ineffective because monetary policy moves such as rate cuts typically take a while to feed through to the broader economy,” according to Reuters (reut.rs). Falling Dollar: The dollar has fallen “under the weight of expected rate cuts form the Fed and record-low U.S. Treasury yields,” according to Axios (bit.ly). This is important to take note of because -- according to the same article -- “Multinational companies prefer a weak dollar because it makes U.S. exports cheaper overseas, but it also makes imported goods more expensive for American consumers and can push inflation higher.” As a result, a falling dollar may pressure bottom lines. Sentiment: 38.7% Bullish, 21.6% Neutral, 39.6% Bearish as of 3/8/2020. (bit.ly) In The News: “Bruno Braizinha at Bank of America had this perspective, earlier this week: When we abstract from the near-term noise and volatility and refocus on year-end scenarios we find two limiting cases: (1) a U.S. recession scenario with the pricing of the Fed to the Zero Lower Bound, which implies 20 basis points for two-year Treasuries and 50-80 basis points for 10-year Treasuries; or (2) an upswing back to trend growth as the coronavirus outbreak dissipates, which likely implies a Fed on hold after a 50 basis-point cut (two-year Treasuries around 1.1%) and 10-year Treasuries in the 1.5-1.7% range. A 50/50 weighting of these scenarios implies a 1-1.25% range for 10-year Treasuries at year-end. With forwards currently around 1.1%, the market seems to be assigning a marginally higher probability to the bullish rates scenario (bearish risky assets) for end-2020.” (bloom.bg) “There is also reason to worry about international debt. According to the Bank for International Settlements, some $17 trillion is owed by non-U.S. corporations without what CrossBorder Capital describes as “obvious U.S. dollar access.” It is hard to see how this will be refinanced without resort to further quantitative easing, just as some of the worst pain for individuals and small businesses to emerge from the virus may require helicopter money drops. None of this makes a credit crisis inevitable, and it should certainly be possible to avoid a crisis on the scale of 2008. The scale of the fear should increase the scale of the subsequent recovery if credit issues can be eased. But the fear that the coronavirus will be the trigger to spark the next generalized credit crunch is widespread, and is rational.” (bloom.bg) Vehicle sales are down 80% in China. (bit.ly) “High yield and investment grade CDX spreads are at their highest levels in over a year, and have widened materially this week. In the case of the junk, an optimist's explanation might be “well, that’s down to energy – an increasingly small part of the S&P 500, so it shouldn't ring alarm bells.” High-yield CDX had its biggest daily widening since 2015 on Thursday. But it’s fairly rare for the S&P 500 to be up 0.8% or more in a week with investment-grade CDX at least five basis points wider. The last time that happened was in September 2018. In other words, the top of the 2018 markets before that year's fourth-quarter rout in risk assets.” (bloom.bg) Outflows Surged: “Fixed income funds have suffered their worst outflow ever, while equity funds have also suffered sizable outflows,” according to BoA Research (bit.ly). "The healthy reserves of many states and cities are why we think municipalities are well positioned to weather some economic dislocation,” according to Cumberland Advisors (bit.ly). An energy price slump may hurt: “While many drillers in Texas and other shale regions look vulnerable, as they’re overly indebted and already battered by rock-bottom natural gas prices, significant declines in U.S. production may take time. The largest American oil companies, Exxon Mobil Corp. and Chevron Corp., now control many shale wells and have the balance sheets to withstand lower prices. Some smaller drillers may go out of business, but many will have bought financial hedges against the drop in crude.In the short run, Russia is in a good position to withstand an oil price slump. The budget breaks even at a price of $42 a barrel and the finance ministry has squirreled away billions in a rainy-day fund. Nonetheless, the coronavirus’s impact on the global economy is still unclear and with millions more barrels poised to flood the market, Wall Street analysts are warning oil could test recent lows of $26 a barrel.” (yhoo.it) Oil drops more than 30% Sunday due to OPEC failure and Saudi Arabia price cuts. (bloom.bg) “Hammered by a collapse in demand due to the coronavirus, the oil market sank deeper into chaos on the prospect of a supply free-for-all. Saudi Arabia over the weekend slashed its official prices by the most in at least 20 years and signaled to buyers it would ramp up output -- an unambiguous declaration of intent to flood the market with crude. Russia said its companies were free to pump as much as they could ... Aramco’s unprecedented pricing move came just hours after the talks between Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies ended in dramatic failure. The breakup of the alliance effectively ends the cooperation between Saudi Arabia and Russia that has underpinned oil prices since 2016.” Information I'm Carrying Forward: Historically, "Epidemics normally have a severe but relatively short-lived impact on economic activity, with the impact on manufacturing and consumption measured in weeks or at worst a few months." (reut.rs) "Asia’s economies, especially China, have grown much faster than their western counterparts, pulling the centre of gravity steadily deeper into the eastern hemisphere and Eurasia.” "In 2020, coronavirus has reinforced the point that an economic shock originating in China can and will propagate throughout the international economic system, impacting on businesses and financial markets worldwide."(reut.rs) "Despite historically low interest rates, U.S. companies are being unusually frugal, holding back on issuing new debt and pumping up their balance sheets with cash. Historically, when interest rates are low and the economy is strong, companies have levered up to increase capital expenditures and buy assets in order to expand. The opposite is happening now." (bit.ly) "Still, consumer fundamentals remain healthy. Personal income jumped 0.6% in January, the most since February 2019, after gaining 0.1% in December" (reut.rs) "So add low interest rates to suppressed inflation (temporarily) coupled with slowing worldwide growth, and we get a powerful upward force for stock prices. Our upside target for the S&P 500 Index is now 3600 or higher." (bit.ly) "The shrinking goods trade deficit could somewhat limit the downside to GDP growth. A third report on Friday, the Commerce Department said the goods trade deficit contracted 4.6% to $65.5 billion in January. Goods imports tumbled 2.2% last month and exports dropped 1.0%" (reut.rs) "A survey of small- and medium-sized Chinese companies conducted this month showed that a third of respondents only had enough cash to cover fixed expenses for a month, with another third running out within two months. While China’s government has cut interest rates, ordered banks to boost lending and loosened criteria for companies to restart operations, many of the nation’s private businesses say they’ve been unable to access the funding they need to meet upcoming deadlines for debt and salary payments. Without more financial support or a sudden rebound in China’s economy, some may have to shut for good." (bloom.bg) "While the coronavirus is disrupting supply chains for manufacturing, some sections of the industry do not appear to be experiencing significant distress. The Chicago Purchasing Management Index rose 6.1 points in February to a reading of 49.0, the highest level since August 2019, a fourth report showed. The joint MNI Indicators and ISM-Chicago survey suggested a marginal impact on businesses in Chicago area from both the coronavirus and last month’s signing of a “Phase 1” trade deal between the United States and China" (reut.rs) Disclaimer: This is a page where I look to share knowledge and keep track of trades. If questions, concerns, or suggestions, feel free to comment. I think everyone can improve (myself especially), so if you see something wrong, speak up.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by Physik
1
Mar 2 Session Profile | /ES S&P 500 E-Mini FuturesDescription: Things I'm thinking about this morning. Points of Interest: Untested POCs, October low, 200 moving average, 50% and 61.8% retracements, gap at the beginning of the sell-off, Monday $VIX pop to $40+. Technical: Untested POCs (see related ideas) beneath February high were erased in a swift correction. In my opinion, the virus-related news is the match that lit the fire (i.e., this was coming). I'm expecting some sort of bounce and retest of the lows. Additionally, half of the S&P 500 stocks are in bear market territory right now (www.reuters.com). Index Analysis: $RUT: TVC:RUT $NDX: TVC:NDX $DJI: TVC:DJI $NYA: TVC:NYA Fundamental: Fed split on whether to cut or maintain rates; spending sees loss in momentum, but consumer fundamentals in a good place; goods trade deficit contracted; manufacturing business outlook recently rose to it's highest levels, but virus and future trade issues may complicate things; housing market hot as home building permits rise to highest levels; debt levels declining; world supply chains at risk due to this virus thing; global yields have generated massive inflows in passive indices that are heavily weighted towards a few stocks. In The News: "Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Friday said the central bank will “act as appropriate” to support the economy in the face of risks posed by the coronavirus epidemic, though he said the economy remains in good shape overall" (www.reuters.com). Fed funds futures "pricing in more than an 80% chance of a new 1% to 1.25% Fed target range for short-term borrowing costs by March 18, when the Fed next meets, down from the current 1.5% to 1.75% range. Pricing also shows traders expect rates to drop to the 0.5% to 0.75% range by July" (www.reuters.com) “Consumers shielded the economy from global headwinds for most of 2019 but they won’t prove immune to the coronavirus outbreak,” said Lydia Boussour, a senior U.S. economist at Oxford Economics in New York. “Persistently low inflation bolsters the case for a Fed rate cut as soon as March given the sharp tightening in financial conditions" (www.reuters.com) "Still, consumer fundamentals remain healthy. Personal income jumped 0.6% in January, the most since February 2019, after gaining 0.1% in December" (www.reuters.com) " he shrinking goods trade deficit could somewhat limit the downside to GDP growth. A third report on Friday, the Commerce Department said the goods trade deficit contracted 4.6% to $65.5 billion in January. Goods imports tumbled 2.2% last month and exports dropped 1.0%" (www.reuters.com) "While the coronavirus is disrupting supply chains for manufacturing, some sections of the industry do not appear to be experiencing significant distress. The Chicago Purchasing Management Index rose 6.1 points in February to a reading of 49.0, the highest level since August 2019, a fourth report showed. The joint MNI Indicators and ISM-Chicago survey suggested a marginal impact on businesses in Chicago area from both the coronavirus and last month’s signing of a “Phase 1” trade deal between the United States and China" (www.reuters.com) Information I'm Carrying Forward: Historically, "Epidemics normally have a severe but relatively short-lived impact on economic activity, with the impact on manufacturing and consumption measured in weeks or at worst a few months." (www.reuters.com) "Despite historically low interest rates, U.S. companies are being unusually frugal, holding back on issuing new debt and pumping up their balance sheets with cash. Why it matters: Historically, when interest rates are low and the economy is strong, companies have levered up to increase capital expenditures and buy assets in order to expand. The opposite is happening now." (www.axios.com) "So add low interest rates to suppressed inflation (temporarily) coupled with slowing worldwide growth, and we get a powerful upward force for stock prices. Our upside target for the S&P 500 Index is now 3600 or higher." (www.cumber.com) "A survey of small- and medium-sized Chinese companies conducted this month showed that a third of respondents only had enough cash to cover fixed expenses for a month, with another third running out within two months. While China’s government has cut interest rates, ordered banks to boost lending and loosened criteria for companies to restart operations, many of the nation’s private businesses say they’ve been unable to access the funding they need to meet upcoming deadlines for debt and salary payments. Without more financial support or a sudden rebound in China’s economy, some may have to shut for good." (www.bloomberg.com) Disclaimer: This is a page where I look to share knowledge and keep track of trades. If questions, concerns, or suggestions, feel free to comment. I think everyone can improve (myself especially), so if you see something wrong, speak up.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by Physik
Feb 23 Session Profile | /ES S&P 500 E-Mini FuturesDescription: Things I'm thinking about tonight. Points of Interest: Massive gap, trendline break, location between 20 and 50 moving averages on daily chart (), untested POCs. Technical: Poor structure (untested POCs) beneath Sunday's overnight. We had a week of balancing and Friday left a poor low. Fundamental: Fed really supportive; manufacturing business outlook has risen to highest levels; housing market hot as home building permits rise; debt levels declining; world supply chains at risk due to this virus thing; global yields have generated massive inflows into passive vehicles that are heavily weighted towards a few stocks; insane speculation in the derivatives market (call side especially). We can go on. There is good and bad. In The News: Historically, "Epidemics normally have a severe but relatively short-lived impact on economic activity, with the impact on manufacturing and consumption measured in weeks or at worst a few months." (www.reuters.com) "Despite historically low interest rates, U.S. companies are being unusually frugal, holding back on issuing new debt and pumping up their balance sheets with cash. Why it matters: Historically, when interest rates are low and the economy is strong, companies have levered up to increase capital expenditures and buy assets in order to expand. The opposite is happening now." (www.axios.com) "So add low interest rates to suppressed inflation (temporarily) coupled with slowing worldwide growth, and we get a powerful upward force for stock prices. Our upside target for the S&P 500 Index is now 3600 or higher." (www.cumber.com) "A survey of small- and medium-sized Chinese companies conducted this month showed that a third of respondents only had enough cash to cover fixed expenses for a month, with another third running out within two months. While China’s government has cut interest rates, ordered banks to boost lending and loosened criteria for companies to restart operations, many of the nation’s private businesses say they’ve been unable to access the funding they need to meet upcoming deadlines for debt and salary payments. Without more financial support or a sudden rebound in China’s economy, some may have to shut for good." (www.bloomberg.com) "The White House is reportedly preparing to ask Congress for emergency funds to help the administration fight the outbreak of the coronavirus, which has infected almost 80,000 people around the world and accounted for more than 2,000 deaths." (thehill.com) "The government of Hubei Province, the epicenter of the coronavirus outbreak, said Thursday it will extend its business shutdown for a third time, this time to March 10, more than a month and a half after the Lunar New Year holiday was slated to end." (asia.nikkei.com) "'The LEI’s six-month growth rate has returned to positive territory, suggesting that the current economic expansion — at about 2 percent — will continue through early 2020,' Ataman Ozyildirim, senior director of economic research at the Conference Board, said in a statement." (www.axios.com) How I'm Playing This: I'm capitalizing on this high IV environment and will look to the call side on strong days, put side on weak days. Disclaimer: This is a page where I look to share knowledge and keep track of trades. If questions, concerns, or suggestions, feel free to comment. I think everyone can improve (myself especially), so if you see something wrong, speak up.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by Physik