2024-11-13 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
dax futures - Bullish. 95 points below huge support is something. I banged my head against that wall today. Still think the bullish read is good, since market reversed for 200 points from the lows. Bear trend line needs to be broken and then we will likely see 19600 tomorrow or Friday. Below 18900 we flush down to 18500. There is no more support for the bulls and they either get a huge reversal day tomorrow or we will crash down and likely won’t trade above 19000 for a long time.
comment: Market had it’s spike below 19000 and is now free to squeeze late bears. First target is 19300 and I think we can print 19600 this week. If it drops below 18980 again, I am wrong and we are most likely on our way to 18500, followed by 18300. Tomorrow is bulls last chance to keep it at the highs or the head & shoulders triggers and measured move down is 18300ish.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 18900 - 19700
bull case: Bulls need a break above the bear trend line and are then free to melt up and squeeze late bears. I don’t think they can let the market dip below 19000 again or they risk a flush down. Confirmation for the bulls is above 19200.
Invalidation is below 18900.
bear case: Bears outdid themselves with a 95 dip below huge support. They want to stay inside the nested bear wedges and continue down. They should keep it below 19130 or the market turns neutral again.
Invalidation is above 19200.
short term: Last try to be a bull. Stop is 18900 but I will only go long if I see big buying pressure tomorrow. Below 18900 this bull show is over.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-19: 20000 is the goal for 2024, if bulls do not get it until year end, it will probably not happen for the next 5-10 years. This market is beyond overvalued and will drop 30-50% in the next 5 years. I have no doubts about that. That fact should not be relevant to your trading at all.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Selling anywhere near the 1h 20ema was amazing. Again.
Priceaction
2024-11-13 - priceactiontds - daily update - goldGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
gold - We are at the last stand for the bulls before this is going to free fall down to 2500 or 2400. I have on more open bull gap to 2560 and if that is closed, there is no more support until much lower. It’s obviously max bearish but I won’t short this. r:r is not there imo.
comment : Easy to write about. Either bulls reverse this very hard above 2560, or we flush down to 2500. Market made the move from 2600 to 2800 in 40 days and bears now reversed it in 9. This selling is as climactic as it get’s. A short squeeze is almost inevitable at this point. Need huge buying pressure and a give up bar for me to join the bulls. Every touch of the 4h 20ema has been sold for 2 weeks. First target for the bulls is 2600, followed by 2630 and then they still have 2 more bear trend lines to break. Really tough for bulls. If they manage those targets, market turns neutral and we will probably move sideways.
current market cycle: bear trend
key levels: 2600 - 2700
bull case: Bullish have their do or die moment here under 2600. Reverse or flush down to 2500. Selling is overdone, which is weird since we started at overbought. Interesting times. Weekly 20ema is at 2600 and an open bull gap. This support is as good as it gets, if it fails, sell this hard.
Invalidation is below 2570.
bear case: Bears selling it all. Best shorts are from the 4h 20ema. Can you still sell this on the next 4h ema touch? Yes but you have to be prepared that market will make a higher low, since this is so oversold.
Invalidation is above 2630.
short term: Neutral until big buying pressure. Below 2570 I join the bears if we flush down.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-11-13 : Will do an update on the weekend. 3000 is not going to happen. If bulls are lucky, they see 2700 again but for now that’s more of a dream than a likely outcome.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Selling 4h 20ema.
S&P500 Is Approaching Key Support Level.Hey Traders, In today’s trading session, we’re keeping a close watch on the US500 for a potential buying opportunity around the 5800 zone. The index is currently trading in an uptrend, but we’re seeing it enter a corrective phase. This correction is bringing it back toward the 5800 support and resistance area, a critical zone that aligns with the broader upward trend.
The 5800 level could serve as a strong entry point, offering an opportunity to join the prevailing uptrend at a favorable price. If price action confirms support at this level, it may signal a potential rally continuation in line with the broader market momentum.
As always, ensure you manage risk and stay cautious in your entries.
Trade safe,
Joe
GOLD ANALYSISIn this analyze we are focusing on 15M time frame for GOLD. Today I'm looking potential sell trade opportunity. Let's wait for price when it reach at our level and than after confirmation we will take sell trade.
Always use stoploss for your trade.
Always use proper money management and proper risk to reward ratio.
This is just my analyze or prediction.
#XAUUSD 15M Technical Analyze Expected Move.
GBPUSD => Bearish Outlook At Key Resistance Level.Hey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring GBPUSD for a selling opportunity around 1.27500 zone, GBPUSD is trading in a downtrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 1.27500 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
DXY Upsides: Bullish Rebound At Key Support ZoneHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring DXY for a buying opportunity around 105.700 zone, DXY is trading in an uptrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 105.700 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
Potential trade setup on BRTUSDWe are looking at a short trade on BRTUSD based on the stretch strategy. There is trend and direction alignment with this trade. Trade has taken out the upper stretch but higher timeframes trend and direction is to the downside. We will take the trade with a higher probability towards opposite stretch level being taken out. We will exit the trade once range has been achieved.
Trader Order Details:
BRTUSD(Short)
E - 71.55
SL - 72.43
T - 70.40
We will be tracking this move and updating the post as we go along on the charts and on video. Keep a look out for it traders.
AUDCAD Bearish Momentum With Key Resistance Level.Hey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring AUDCAD for a selling opportunity around 0.91200 zone, AUDCAD is trading in a downtrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 0.91200 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
EURNZD: Bullish Move From Support Confirmed 🇪🇺🇳🇿
EURNZD nicely reacted to a daily horizontal support.
First, the price started to consolidate within a narrow range
after its test.
Then a bullish movement initiated and the price violated both
the resistance of the range and the upper boundary of the falling wedge pattern.
We can expect more growth.
Goal - 1.7964
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2024-11-12 - priceactiontds - daily update - oilGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
oil - Neutral. 3 legs down are done and bulls got a couple of 1h bars that closed above the 1h 20ema. We have formed a descending triangle which will break out tomorrow and I do think a break to the upside is much more likely than below but it could happen. Bulls want 70 and bears 67. Below 67 would be 66.72 but I doubt bears can get there.
comment : Market is trying to find a bottom. Can wait for a breakout and not trade this contracting range. Bears want 67 and then 66.72 and bulls 70 if they can break above the bear trend line. Not more magic to it.
current market cycle: trading range (big triangle on the daily chart)
key levels: 63 - 78
bull case: Bulls see the 3 clear legs down and now want a correction to at least the 50% retracement at 70.30. Today they finally printed multiple bars above the 1h 20ema and they are producing good buying pressure at 68. Bears will likely try 1-2 more times at 68 before they could give up and we see the upside breakout.
Invalidation is below 67.50.
bear case: I do think it’s tough to be a bear below 68. Downside could be limited to 66.72 and where would you put your stop? 69? Could work but I would not. Market has not traded below 67 for more than 5 days in September. Ultimately bears want to retest the October low at 65.74 and they have more arguments on their side than the bulls and yet I still don’t think the risk:reward selling below 68 is worth it.
Invalidation is above 69.3.
short term: Neutral until bulls break 69.3. No interest in selling below 68.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-20 : No idea where this wants to go in the remaining 2 months of this year so I am neutral until we have a better pattern. The big triangle on the weekly chart is alive and until that changes, no more updates.
current swing trade: Nope
trade of the day: Buying 68 has been profitable and will likely continue to be.
2024-11-12 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
dax futures - Bullish. Any long near 19000 is a very good trade until we clearly break below 19000. Market is in a clear trading range 19000 - 19648. Maybe bears will retest 19000 tomorrow but it could also just continue to move up from US close. Only a daily close below 19000 would change things. BTFD.
comment: Daily chart continues to show alternating bull/bear bars and getting bearish around 19000 can only go wrong. If bears manage to continue below 19000 and close there, that would certainly change things big time but for now it’s a clear range, so play it.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 19000 - 19700
bull case: Bulls need to trap late bears and a bull trend during the asian session would help big time. Targets above are 1h 20ema at 19240 and then trying to break above the bear trend line. 50% retracement is around 19300 and this is the magnet we are oscillating around. Any long near 19000 is reasonable. Weekly 20ema for futures is 19100 and market could not close below it. Weekly on xetra is 18850, can we get there? Possible but for now I don’t think it’s more likely than a reversal up.
Invalidation is below 19000 (maybe give it 30-50 points of room).
bear case: Bears have going for them that they keep it below 19600 and the rejections are strong. On the weekly chart we now have made lower lows for 4 consecutive weeks but what do the bears accomplish? Bulls buy every dip and despite 4 bear weeks, we have gone nowhere. Until bears trap bulls with big selling below 19000, this will not change and we continue sideways. Bears need to keep this below 19250 to keep the momentum going. Above 19250 I heavily favor the bulls for 19300 and ignore the bear trend line and just move higher again.
Invalidation is above 19300.
short term: Bullish as long as we stay above 19000. Target above is 19600 and 20000 if bulls get freaky again.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-19: 20000 is the goal for 2024, if bulls do not get it until year end, it will probably not happen for the next 5-10 years. This market is beyond overvalued and will drop 30-50% in the next 5 years. I have no doubts about that. That fact should not be relevant to your trading at all.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Selling anywhere near the 1h 20ema was amazing.
DOGEUSDThi
For now, we don't have any positive signal and the best case is to wait; If the $0.12172 resistance range is completely consumed, we can expect a break of the descending channel and an uptrend.
But now, due to maintaining the downward channelized movement, the probability of the continuation of the downward trend is higher.
What do you think?
GBPCAD OUTLOOKIn this analysis we are focusing on 4H time frame for finding the upcoming moves and changes in GBPCAD price, I'm looking buy trade opportunity today. let's see what happens and which trade opportunity market will give us.
Always use stoploss for your trade.
Always use proper money management and proper risk to reward ratio.
This is just my prediction or analysis
#GBPCAD 4H Technical Analyze Expected Move.
SasanSeifi| Bullish Trend Building as $1.90 Holds!Hey there, ✌ In the daily time frame, as you can see, the price of BINANCE:OPUSDT has been oscillating with a slight increase after holding the $1 level for a relatively long period. After an initial rise and hitting a supply zone, the price has returned to the demand zone around $1 and, after reaching this level, we have witnessed another slight increase.
Currently, as shown in the chart, the long-term downward trendline has been broken in the daily time frame, and the price is moving toward the $2 level. This break in the downtrend could indicate a potential trend reversal and the beginning of a new upward movement. Considering the overall market conditions and existing demand, the likelihood of continued price growth in the short and medium term has increased.
One scenario we can consider is that if the price stabilizes above the supply zone, which is currently near the $1.90 level, we can expect OP to move toward higher levels. In this case, mid-term and long-term price targets could range from $2.20, $2.50, to even $3. The key support zone on the daily time frame for OP is at the $1.50 level.
💢 Please remember that this is just my personal viewpoint and should not be taken as investment advice. I’d love to hear your thoughts and share opinions!
Happy trading!✌😎
Sure, if you have any more questions or need further clarification, feel free to ask. I'm here to help!✌
GOLD FORECASTIn this analysis we are focusing on 4H time frame for finding the upcoming changes on gold price. As we know that bearish momentum is very strong. So what do we need to do is just wait for price when it comes to our level and give any kind of rejection or any buy confirmation, then we will execute our buy trade. In my opinion and I'm expecting that price will bounce back toward upside after testing the zone. Let's delve deeper into these levels and potential outcomes.
Always use stoploss for your trade.
Always use proper money management and proper risk to reward ratio.
This is just my analysis or prediction.
#XAUUSD 4H Technical Analyze Expected Move.
Short Term Buy ( pullback ) ConsolidationGBP has seen a lot of Bearish Pressure and with the failure to break and meaningful highs on the higer time frame, constant 23.6 retracements are sign of continuation/ consolidation , has struggle to break past the lows, based on the technical and market sentiment its ranging between 0.00% and 23.6 % . Any news could shoot gbp/usd in any direction right now overall gbp is bearish as a currency.
2024-11-11 - priceactiontds - daily update - bitcoinGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
bitcoin - Max bullish. 100k next. Don’t fight it. I scalp long on strong momentum.
comment: No doubt this will go to 100k. The move is so beyond everything at this point, no one will stop this. I would not be surprised if this hits 100k, to then dip 20-30% in 4-8 weeks after that. For now, don’t fight it and join strong momentum. 4h 20ema has not been touched since Wednesday.
current market cycle: peak euphoria - small pullback bull trend
key levels: 70000 - 100.000
bull case: Bulls want it bad. They will likely get it soon. Any decent dip is bought and we are printing 2-3% 1h bull bars. 4h tf shows 2 clear legs already, third one will likely lead to 100k.
Invalidation is below 80000.
bear case: Any pullback is mostly going sideways and it looks like it’s only bulls taking profits. Can’t be a bear in this. Don’t even try.
Invalidation is above 110.000.
short term: max bullish for 100k
medium-long term - Update from 2024-11-11: 100k and then down to 70000 in 2-4 weeks.
current swing trade: No thank you.
trade of the day: Long anywhere and for any reason.
2024-11-11 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
dax futures - Neutral. Bulls need a strong move above 19600 for higher prices and bears a 1h bar close below 19500. Leaning very slightly bullish because overall market environment. On the daily chart the market is printing alternating bull/bear bars so your guess is as good as mine when this will end. For now it’s best to scalp and fade the extremes.
dax futures
comment : Slightly bullish bias was right and market just want higher since Globex open. 19600 was rejected as it was last week but at least bulls made higher lows and higher highs again. 19500 is a tough spot for a trade as of now. If bulls can keep it above that price, that would bring much higher prices in play. If we close a 1h bar below, we likely test down to 19350 or lower.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 19000 - 19700
bull case: Bulls had a decent day but inside prior range and they got rejected at previous resistance. Buying above 19500 was not profitable so far and that did not change today. Best for bulls would be to make 19500 support and poke 19620 enough times until bears give up. It’s currently in a week channel upwards or a trending trading range or whatever you want to call it, it does not matter because you trade them the same.
Invalidation is below 19000.
bear case: Bears need a 1h bar close below 19500 or more bulls will join the buying above 19500. The rejection from 19600 was reasonable strong but in an overall maximum bullish environment, this market will have a hard time going down. If we look at the last 3 bears legs down, they get weaker and I do think many bears will give up, if bulls try to push through 19600 with force. Another way to look at this from the daily tf is that bears prevented the bulls from a daily close above 19500 for 2 weeks now. This can only continue so much until bulls give up. Both sides have reasonable arguments and this is almost always the case in trading ranges.
Invalidation is above 19800.
short term: Neutral. Bulls need a strong move above 19600 for higher prices and bears a 1h bar close below 19500. Leaning very slightly bullish because overall market environment.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-19: 20000 is the goal for 2024, if bulls do not get it until year end, it will probably not happen for the next 5-10 years. This market is beyond overvalued and will drop 30-50% in the next 5 years. I have no doubts about that. That fact should not be relevant to your trading at all.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Any long before EU open with stop 19250 was reasonable and then after the move above 19500 it was tough. At that point 19600 was very likely but stop was very far away for a limited upside. The sell off from 19620 down to 19450 was much stronger than I expected.
Solana - We Will See A New All Time High!Solana ( CRYPTO:SOLUSD ) is preparing for an all time high breakout:
Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻
After dropping -95% in 2022, Solana then rallied an incredible +2.000% and retested the previous all time high. Then we saw a quite long term but tight consolidation and just two months ago, Solana retested the lower support again. It is just a matter of time until we will see a breakout.
Levels to watch: $120, $210
Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
SasanSeifi| Will the Price Break Above $38 for Strong Uptrend?Hey there, ✌In the daily timeframe BINANCE:ORDIUSDT , as observed, the price has entered a corrective phase after a significant rise from the $40 range. Following the correction, with the $30 level holding, we have seen positive fluctuations again. Currently, the price is at the $35 range, and during this movement, there have been reactions to the downward trendline.
Since the price is still below the 200-day moving average (EMA 200), paying attention to its behavior near this level and a potential breakout is crucial.
Given the overall market conditions, the medium-term outlook for the price trend appears to be bullish. If the price can maintain the $33 to $31 range and, in the next phase, break above the $38 level along with the EMA 200 and establish itself above it, there is potential for a significant price increase towards the $43 to $45 range.
In this scenario, the market could enter a strong uptrend. Therefore, if the price stabilizes above $38, further upward movement and growth would be likely.
💢 Please remember that this is just my personal viewpoint and should not be taken as investment advice. I’d love to hear your thoughts and share opinions!
Happy trading!✌😎
Sure, if you have any more questions or need further clarification, feel free to ask. I'm here to help!✌
CHFJPY: Bearish Move From Resistance 🇨🇭🇯🇵
CHFJPY looks bearish after a test of a key daily/intraday horizontal resistance.
Our bearish signal is a breakout of a support line of a bullish flag pattern
on an hourly time frame.
The price is going to retrace at least to 174.56 level.
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#202445 - priceactiontds - weekly update - bitcoinGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
bitcoin: Neutral. If we stay below 85000, we can have a two legged correction from here. Above 85000 I don’t see any reason to not print 100k.
Quote from last week:
comment: Bulls made the breakout early in the week and retested the ath 73805 but came short couple of points. It’s obviously the mother of all double tops here since the rejection is already deep enough, that there is a decent chance we won’t reach 73000 again.
comment : What a rally this is. On Thursday I wrote that we broke high enough to make 80000 a possibility and it happened on Sunday. I absolutely can’t this see going any higher as of now but I can also be totally wrong about that. I have no interest in buying this, whatsoever. I have also drawn my preferred path forward with a two legged correction where the B would reach 80000 and we got that part already. My next target is 72000/73000.
current market cycle: Bull trend
key levels: 70000 - 80000
bull case: Bulls outdid themselves with the 80000 print. I expect big profit taking to come around soon and late bulls will get burned. My bullish targets are met and I got nothing for the bulls above 80000.
Invalidation is below 70000.
bear case: Bears are stepping aside for now until the spike is done. 80000 is the perfect place to wait and see if profit taking starts and once it gets going, I expect big bears to sell aggressively. If bulls manage to keep this going above 85000 I am completely wrong with my read and this could actually melt to 100000. How do I come up with that target? Measured move from the current spike is about 95000 and that is close enough to 100k to make it. What a sight that would be…
Invalidation is above 85000.
outlook last week:
short term: Bearish medium-long term. Short term we could retest 70000 or higher but if you can hold shorts with stop 75000, I think they can work.
→ Last Sunday we traded around 68620 and now we are at 79329. Could not have been more wrong. Monday and Tuesday confirmed my read but Wednesday left no doubt about it being wrong.
short term: Neutral but if we stay below 85000, we could see the two legged move down as drawn. Could still just be a bull trap and we sell down hard again. That does not mean shorting this right now is a good idea. Bears need to show strength with consecutive bear bars before I think about joining them. Right now it is max bullishness.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-11-10 : No current outlook until bears come around. Above 85000 this has potential to go for 100k.
current swing trade: None
chart update: Added bullish 5-wave series and potential two legged correction. If we print 85000, the current bull leg is probably a W1 of a new impulse which could lead to 100k.