Get started

Priceaction

2024-10-08 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr dax - Do or die for the bears at exactly at the bear trend line and last weeks close and also Monday’s pullback high around 19260. Above 19290, bulls are favored for a breakout and target 19330 or higher. If we turn here, I expect 19100 or lower. dax futures comment: Watch the 30m 20ema tomorrow and see if bulls can hold above it. The 19250-19280 area should be resistance and I favor the bears, once we drop below 19200 again. Bulls want the breakout above 19280 and then a strong move for a retest of 19491 ath. We are near are exactly at two very important trend lines. One is the big bull trend line from early August (please see my weekly post and chart) and the other is the bear trend line from the ath. I expect a huge day tomorrow, once we know who wins the battle. Right now I think odds are 50/50. current market cycle: bull trend (big trend line is currently at 18950 on xetra) - close below 19000 ends that bull trend key levels: 19000 - 20000 bull case: Bulls need to break above the bear trend line to stay above the bull trend line and daily 20ema. Market traded the 4th consecutive day around the daily ema and tomorrow we will likely have a huge breakout. If bulls win, we will probably retest the ath. Invalidation is below 19000. bear case : Bears are in do or die mode. Either reverse hard and stay below the bear trend line, or give up and see 19400+ again. Both sides showed strength this week and there is no clear direction for tomorrow. Bear case gets better once we trade below 19200 again. Invalidation is above 19280. short term: Neutral between 19200 - 19280. Bearish below, bullish above. Best to wait for the breakout tomorrow or Friday but I favor tomorrow. medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-01: 4 Months left in 2024 and I do think the market is in a trading range where the upper area is around 19000 and the lower area is probably 17000 or 16000 if something bigger comes up. Since we are at the very top, I expect the market to go some sideways before trying to go down again. Next 2000 Points will be made to the downside but it’s too early to short this. current swing trade: Will swing in the direction of tomorrows breakout trade of the day: Strong selling through Globex but market made a tripple bottom near 19050 and whenever the market tries to do something 2-3 times and fails, it will likely try the opposite. Long above 19130 - bar 10 was a very good trade.
EUREX:FDXSZ2024
by priceactiontds
How To Have An Edge Over The Markets!Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst. Today I want to share a basic trading plan that you can follow to quantify your trading edge. 📌Step 1: First, start from the higher timeframes like Daily/Weekly to identify the current long-term trend. is it bullish, bearish or stuck inside a range? If the price is sitting in the middle of nowhere, then it is a NO trade zone as price has 50% change to go either up or down. Thus no edge! 📚Wait for the price to approach the lower bound or upper bound. Then proceed to Step 2 📌Step 2: No matter how strong a horizontal / non-horizontal support or resistance is, it can still be broken. Thus don't buy/sell blindly as price approaches a support/resistance. Instead, zoom in to lower timeframes like H1 and M30 to look for setups. 🏹A basic approach would be to wait for a swing low to be broken downward around a resistance as a signal that the bears are taking over. In parallel, wait for a swing high to be broken upward around a support for the bulls to take over. This would be the confirmation to enter the trade. ⚙️Of course, your second edge would be through risk management by targeting at least double than your indented risk. But that's a topic for another post 😉 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. Hope you find the content of this post useful 🙏 All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Rich
Education
by TheSignalyst
14
Gold price analysis October 8Fundamental analysis Gold prices attracted some selling for the fifth consecutive day on Tuesday, falling to their lowest in more than a week, close to the $2,630 trading range support level in the first half of the European session. Friday’s upbeat US jobs report provides further evidence of a resilient labor market and forced investors to trim their bets on another aggressive rate cut by the Federal Reserve. This, in turn, was seen as a major factor undermining demand for the non-yielding yellow metal. That said, a softening US dollar (USD), coupled with the risk of further escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, could provide some support to safe-haven gold prices. Traders may also refrain from placing aggressive bets ahead of the release of the FOMC meeting minutes on Wednesday. Additionally, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the US Producer Price Index (PPI), scheduled for release on Thursday and Friday, will provide fresh impetus to XAU/USD. Technical analysis Gold price is pushed up to 2647 before the US session. Attention price zone 2649-2651. When the US session enters, the price cannot break this zone, we sell to 2622-2611. In case this zone breaks, we wait for retes BUY in the 2643-2645 zone, target today 2660. Wish you successful trading with the strategy and important price zones that I have noted.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by TVS-Trader
SasanSeifi| Will It Rebound or Drop Further?Hey there, ✌In the weekly timeframe, as you can see, Atom's price has been in a downtrend from the $8.50 range and has now corrected to the crucial weekly support level at $4. Currently, the price is trading around $4. In the long-term timeframe, maintaining the $4 level is crucial. The price has reacted to this important support, and if it consolidates here with confirmation on lower timeframes, we could expect a potential rebound with positive fluctuations toward the $5 and $6.50 levels. If positive momentum develops, we should watch how the price reacts to the $6.50 level. To continue the bullish trend and reach the target supply zone of $7 to $8, breaking the $6.50 level is necessary. On the other hand, if the $4 level breaks and the price stabilizes below it, the likelihood of further correction increases, with potential downside targets of $3.20 to $2.30. 🔶The chart is in logarithmic scale. This analysis is my personal viewpoint and not financial advice. If you found this helpful, please like and comment – I’d love to hear your thoughts! Happy trading! ✌😊
by SasanSeifi
SasanSeifi|Will It Break Resistance or Test Lower Supports?Hey there, ✌ On the weekly timeframe, BINANCE:LTCUSDT price movement, after ranging around $84, faced a downward trend and corrected to the $50 level. Currently, the price is trading in a range around $63 with limited fluctuations. In the long-term weekly timeframe, key support levels for Litecoin are at $50 and $42. To continue the upward trend, it’s essential for the price to break the critical resistance at $85 and hold above it. If this resistance is broken, the likelihood of further price growth increases. For a clearer understanding of the price movement, it’s crucial to closely monitor Litecoin’s reaction to the $70 to $85 range. If the price fails to sustain above these levels, we may see a correction and a potential return to the major support zones. 🔶The chart is in logarithmic scale. This analysis reflects my personal view and is not financial advice. If you found this helpful, feel free to like and comment – I’d love to hear your thoughts! Happy trading! ✌😊
by SasanSeifi
2024-10-07 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Indexes - Bears stuffed the bullish price action from Friday with a decent bear bar closing on it’s low. Markets continue in their respective trading ranges near the highs and the daily ema have held again. If bears can generate follow through selling tomorrow, the highs could be in for now and we could see a deeper pullback. sp500 e-mini futures comment: 5750 - 5800 is my neutral range (written in my weekly update) and bears managed to get 5734 but could not close below the daily 20ema. To take control of the market, bears need follow through tomorrow below 5720 and a close below 5700 would be good for them. If they fail, bulls will buy it and we continue inside the range. current market cycle: nested bull wedges key levels : 5700 - 5850 bull case: Bulls have to stay above the daily 20ema or lose control, that’s their target for tomorrow. Since market is trading below the 1h 20ema, we will probably go more sideways during Globex and EU session before we see a bigger impulse again. Bulls still have the lower wedge bull trend line around 5700 and that would be their last stand before bears can take control and push this much lower again. Odds favor the bulls to stay above 5690 until we tested the trend line more than once. They rarely break on the second/third hit. Invalidation is below 5690. bear case: Bears want to trade below the daily ema and test the bull trend line around 5690-5700. We have spent enough time at the highs and a new impulse is around the corner. As of now I have no opinion where we might break out to. Bears can also make the case for a head & shoulders top and a measured move down would bring us to almost exactly the 50% pullback of the recent bull trend (5638ish). Coincidences eh. Invalidation is above 5850. short term: Neutral at the daily 20ema. It’s more reasonable to expect more sideways instead of a breakout. When it happens, watch for follow through before you join the trend. medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-22: Very much like my outlook in dax. Trading range on the daily chart and we are at the highs. We could make higher ones or not. Does not matter much. I expect at least 5300 to be hit again in 2024. current swing trade: Nope trade of the day : Globex was bearish enough and once market traded below the 1h 20ema, it could not stay above it for long. Overall I’d say it was a tricky day. Shorting inside the trading range bar 30 - 45 was not a good trade since market just went up and down inside the tight range. Bears showed some strength with bars 45 and 47. Can you then reliably short on bar 50? I doubt it. To weak of a signal and you have the bar 18 low, so you would be shorting low in a potential trading range. Bar 53 was even worse to short, since it was a perfect double bottom with bar 18. Bar 54 was the bar that surely made the market always-in-short and 55 was the give up bar but then market printed one more strong bear bar and reversed for 11 points, trapping late bears.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
2024-10-07 - priceactiontds - daily update - oilGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Oil - 16% in 5 days. Alrighty then. No matter your religious beliefs, you can not buy and pray for higher prices. Buying near the 1h 20ema was profitable since last Tuesday but the rally is so climactic that we will very likely see a bigger pullback soon that will be driven by traders taking profits and reducing their risk. Don’t be exit liquidity. Otherwise it’s obviously max bullishness and we can expect a test of 80 soon. Any decent pullback is a good buying opportunity, just don’t buy big bear bars and hope for the best. Wait until market turns up again. comment : Does not make sense to try to come up with a bull/bear case when the market is doing one of the nastiest short squeezes ever. It’s max bullish and your job now is to evaluate potential spots to get long. No matter how you put it, you can only long this on strong momentum or a decent pullback. The 1h 20ema was profitable for 4 trading days now, look for longs around that price. Can we go higher without a better pullback? Look at the rally 2023-06-28 to 2023-09-28. 3 months of a very strong bull rally and markets always have pullbacks. It could obviously still go higher before a pullback but I would not buy above 77 right now. Market has to form a better pattern for this to be sustainable. Right now it’s a short squeeze and we will soon see a bigger pullback because trader want to lock in profits in order to reduce their risk. current market cycle: strongest bull trend key levels: 70 - 80 bull case: Bulls are in control. Don’t look for shorts, can almost certainly only get burned. Potential targets for bulls to begin to take profits are above us. I got two bear trend lines around 77 - 79. I’d be surprised if we straight go for 80 without a better pullback. Any pullback is a good buying opportunity, just don’t long too early and get trapped in a deeper one you can not hold onto. Invalidation is below 73. bear case: Get outta here, no bear case. Invalidation is above 80. short term: max bullish but maybe one comment… No matter the reason for the short squeeze, it can turn down again violently and form a gigantic range. So imagine if we retest the breakout price of 72.36. How many traders would be trapped then? Don’t be early. medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-06 : That bear trend is over and we are again in the big trading range 64 - 78/79. I would update this again if we break above 80 with follow through. current swing trade: None trade of the day: Long anywhere and have the balls to hold.
NYMEX:MCL1!
by priceactiontds
GBPUSD Price ActionHey Traders! Long time no see, hope you're all doing great! I wanted to share a super simple setup I’m using. It’s based on the Previous Day's High/Low and the Session Opening High/Low. I saw price rejecting the Previous Day’s Low and marked the Session Opening High/Low as an Order Block, so I took an entry targeting the Previous Day’s High. There’s also some imbalance, so price could move up there. As always, risk management is everything! I’m using a 1:8 risk-reward ratio, which looks solid. Just manage your risk, stay calm, and avoid any stress. Wishing you all the best and happy trading! Thank you!
Long
by SuvashishFx
DBCORP: Positive Trend with Buy Opportunity on DipsNSE:DBCORP : Positive Trend with Buy Opportunity on Dips NSE:DBCORP is exhibiting a positive trend, but careful attention is needed around key levels due to possible trapped trader zones. A buy-on-dip strategy near support may provide an optimal entry point. Support Zone: 335 – This is a strong area to consider buying on dips, with the last stop-loss set at 325 for risk management. Resistance Levels: 375 / 396 – Resistance here could lead to temporary pullbacks. Watch for a breakout above 396 to confirm strong bullish continuation. Price Action: The stock's behavior suggests some trapped traders, so it's essential to monitor price action closely for false breakouts. A buy-on-dip strategy near the 335 support could offer good risk-reward opportunities if the trend holds. Disclaimer: I am not a SEBI-registered Research Analyst. This analysis is for educational purposes only. Please perform your own research or consult a financial advisor before taking any trading decisions.
NSE:DBCORPLong
by Fight_Bulls_vs_Bear
S&P bulls maintain control but no initiative yetLast week was characterized by controlled selling, with prices drifting down slowly as the market awaited the unemployment data released on Friday. As we can see on the daily chart, sellers were unable to close the day below the previous day's low, even after a significant sell-off on Tuesday. Once the unemployment data was published, alleviating concerns about a potential recession, the bulls regained control, and the week closed on a positive note. The next key objective for buyers is to break through the resistance around 574.7 . Given that this level has been retested multiple times, it's unlikely to hold. However, we still need to closely monitor the price's reaction to this level and observe what happens immediately after the breakout. The long-term outlook remains bullish. In the short term, there is still a high possibility that prices will continue consolidating within the 565–575 range , as the market remains influenced by political uncertainty in the U.S.
AMEX:SPY
by hermes_trisme
USDCHF: Marry One Pair and DO NOT Cheat One of the best tips I could ever give to any beginning or developing trader is to choose one or two financial securities and stick solely with them. At the start, it's natural for many of us to diversify our watchlists with a wide range of instruments - ranging from forex pairs to stocks and even cryptocurrencies. However, as time progresses, we come to realise that focusing on one or two pairs is more than sufficient. Working with them consistently and making necessary adjustments along the way can lead to long-term success. The most significant benefit of this approach is the development of what is often referred to as a ‘sixth sense.’ The more you analyse, monitor, and trade the same instrument, the deeper your understanding of it becomes. A helpful way to think about this is through the analogy of learning a language. If you practice the same one or two languages daily, your skills improve over time. You develop muscle memory, an affiliation with the language, and expert intuition, making it easier to read, write, listen, and speak. Trading is no different - by focusing on one or two securities, you sharpen your focus and deepen your understanding of them, rather than diluting your attention across too many instruments. Every security has its own unique characteristics - its own "universe." By sticking to a limited number of them, you can gain greater insight and mastery over time. Last year, we applied this principle with EUR/GBP, one of the two pairs we've been trading for years. This time, we will use USD/CHF as an example. As inferred from the detailed illustration, over the past months, we have executed 6 trade positions on USD/CHF, netting a total of +8.3% with a win rate of 66% . Currently, we have one position running in the portfolio (a long trade at ), which is running in profits of +1.5% for the time being. In addition, we aim to execute additional positions in the coming weeks, provided everything aligns with our game plan. By closely monitoring the daily movements of this instrument, we have been able to identify and capitalise on several strong swing positions. This has deepened our connection with the currency pair and enhanced our understanding of its price behaviour. As with any craft, experience leads to mastery. A useful analogy here is the game of chess. How do you improve your chess skills? Through hard work, continuous practice, and patience. By revisiting the same patterns over the years, you establish a solid connection with your approach to the game. The same principle applies to trading. One of the most beneficial strategies we've adopted is to "fall in love" with a single financial instrument (or two), trading it consistently without allowing distractions to pull our focus away.
by Investroy
1
SasanSeifi|Will the 0.30 Cent Level Hold?Hey there, ✌ BINANCE:ADAUSDT In the daily timeframe, as observed, the price followed a downward trend from the 0.80 cent range, extending the correction down to 0.30 cents. Afterward, the price entered a consolidation phase within the 0.30 cent range, which has since been maintained. Currently, we’re seeing a breakout of the long-term descending trend line, and the price is trading around the 0.35 cent level. The scenario we can consider in the daily timeframe is that, given the preservation of the demand zone and after accumulating liquidity, the price could see an upward movement towards the target of 0.39 cents and the supply zone in the 0.42 cent range. To confirm further upward movement, we need to observe the price’s reaction to these zones. (For a continuation of the uptrend and reaching the 0.50 cent target, the supply zone needs to be broken, with the price stabilizing above it.) On the other hand, if the price falls below the 0.30 cent range after a consolidation phase and stabilizes, the probability of further correction increases. 💢This analysis is my personal viewpoint and not financial advice. If you found this helpful, please like and comment – I’d love to hear your thoughts! Happy trading! ✌😊
Long
by SasanSeifi
SasanSeifi| Will DOT Break Out Above $4.50?Hey there, ✌ By analysing the daily chart of BINANCE:DOTUSDT , we can see that the price has been in a downward trend for some time and is currently trading in a range around $4. The current key support level is at $4. One scenario to consider in the daily timeframe is that if the price breaks the downtrend and stabilizes above $4.50, it could reach short-term targets around $5, as well as targets in the range of $5.80 and the supply zone at $6. To better understand the future price movements, it’s essential to observe how the price reacts to these levels. (For a continued bullish trend in the long term, breaking the significant supply area at $6 and stabilizing above it is crucial.) Conversely, if the price breaks below the $4 level and stabilizes after a range-bound period, the likelihood of further price corrections may increase. 💢This analysis is my personal viewpoint and not financial advice. If you found this helpful, please like and comment – I’d love to hear your thoughts! Happy trading! ✌😊
Long
by SasanSeifi
Gold Price Analysis July 10Fundamental Analysis Gold (XAU/USD) traded negative for the fourth consecutive day on Monday, despite no follow-through selling, remaining confined within a familiar range that has held for the past week or so amid mixed fundamental signals. Friday’s upbeat US jobs report dashed market expectations for more aggressive easing by the Federal Reserve, helping the US Dollar (USD) rise to near seven-week highs and weighing on the non-yielding yellow metal. In addition, the underlying bullish tone across global equity markets further undermined safe-haven Gold. However, any meaningful corrective pullback remains elusive amid persistent geopolitical risks stemming from ongoing conflicts in the Middle East, which tend to favor the precious metal. Traders may also want to wait for the FOMC meeting minutes to be released this Wednesday and the US consumer inflation data on Thursday. Technical analysis Gold has bounced strongly from the session support zone of 2640. At the moment, the trading range of gold is relatively wide and the NF has not been able to help gold form a new specific trend. In the h4 or h2 time frame, the trading range is clearly seen at 2635 and 2670. When this range is broken, the price will form a new trend. Besides, we pay attention to the areas that are prone to fake 2625 and 2685.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by TVS-Trader
DXY Set for a Sell-Side Liquidity Sweep Following HTF RejectionAnalyzing the recent price action of the DXY, it appears that a retracement to sell-side liquidity is in progress. Price has respected a higher timeframe order block (HTF OB) near 102.798, showing a significant wick into the OB before closing below it—a clear bearish signal. This indicates a likely push towards key sell-side liquidity around 100.215. Traders should watch for bearish continuation setups as liquidity pools are targeted. Always remember: DYOR (Do Your Own Research).
TVC:DXYShort
by INSIDER_INTEL
#202440 - priceactiontds - weekly update - goldGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr gold: 2640 - 2700 is the range. Play it. Bulls bought the trend line on Friday and are free to continue the meltup. Above 2680 I expect another try of 2700 and a possible 3rd leg (W5) up to 2800 or higher. Bears need something below 2640 for maybe retesting 2600 (the bigger bull trend line is around that price) but for now I can’t see this happening. The rally/bubble is in full force and market is finding buyers on any pullback. Weekly chart gives a good picture. Last time market stalled 3 weeks before another strong leg up. Quote from last week: comment: Bulls hit 2700 as expected and we pulled back some. I do expect this pullback to become a great buying opportunity but I don’t know how far down bears can get it. Obvious magnets are the breakout price 2630, daily 20ema or the bull trend line around 2620. comment : My bearish target was 2630 and low of the week was 2646, I do think that is as good of an outlook as it gets. We are still low enough to justify buying 2667 but your stop would have to be 2640. Until the bull trend line and daily 20ema are broken, market is max bullish, so look for longs. current market cycle: very strong bull trend key levels: 2640 - 2710 (will probably break above again) bull case: Bulls have all the arguments on their side and all patterns are as bullish as it gets. Bull trend line held and a buy is a decent trade right now for 2700 or higher. My target for W5 is around 2780. If bulls fail at this smaller bull trend line, the next bigger one would be around 2600 and that is probably the absolute best bears could get over the next days/weeks. Invalidation is below 2600. bear case: Bears want to break below the minor bull trend line and the daily ema. We have not touched the daily 20ema for a month so don’t expect the first touch to be a strong break below. Bears do not have good arguments for more weakness and I won’t make some up. Anything below 2640 would surprise me and odds would rise to test down 2600 but right now it’s low probability. Invalidation is above 2710. outlook last week: short term : Neutral and I will only look for longs in Gold. If bears show strength, I might try a small short scalp and hope for 2630 or lower and then I wait for bulls to come around again. Making money on the long side here is the way to go. → Last Sunday we traded 2668 and now we are at 2667. Outlook. Was. Perfect. Hope you made some. short term: Neutral around 2640 - 2670 but favoring the bulls to break above 2670 for 2700 and higher. If bears show strength below 2640, it would be a reasonable trade to try a short for 2600. medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-22: Very strong breakout above, again. Market currently has no ceiling. Most likely 2700 next and I do think 3000 could be a potential target if we continue. There is certainly an argument for a measured move based on the bull rally from 2018-08 to 2020-08. current swing trade: None chart update: Added bull gaps to highlight the bullishness..
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!Long
by priceactiontds
#202440 - priceactiontds - weekly update - bitcoinGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr bitcoin: Strong week by the bears and 60000 held as expected. Bulls are currently not able to close a daily bar above the daily 20ema or 62000. As long as that’s the case, I expect at least a second leg down to 55000 or lower. Bulls need something above 63000 for me to doubt my bear case. Quote from last week: comment: 64500 was my clear invalidation level for many weeks now and bulls are staying above 65400 over the weekend. That’s confirmation for the bulls. Market has now formed another wedge and we could continue sideways until we hit the bull trend line around 65500. Bulls are in control of the market. comment: Strong start of the week by the bears and they want a second leg down to 57000 or lower. The daily 20ema is flat and market is oscillating around it. Bad place to trade in any way and you should wait for a clear direction again. Since we are inside nested triangles, watch for the 50% pb (mid point of the range) and how market reacts to it. current market cycle: trading range and bull trend on smaller tf key levels: 60000 - 70000 bull case: Above 63500 I think bulls can get to 65000 or higher again. We are still close and flat enough to view this as a normal pullback after a sell spike and that’s why I think bulls need to continue strongly on Monday or bears will likely take over and go for the second leg down. Invalidation is below 59800. bear case: They want a strong second leg down to 57000 or lower. Odds still favor them but they need to stay below 63000 or we might go back up again. The bull trend line is support until broken and you can’t be bearish in the pure hope of bears breaking it. Invalidation is above 63500. outlook last week: short term : Bullish for 67000 or 68000. → Last Sunday we traded around 65800 and now we are at 62700. Bad outlook. short term: Neutral around 62000-63000. Bearish below 59000. Bullish only on strong momentum up above 63000 for 65000 again. medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-06 : Something between 49000 and 70000. Big surprise, I know. I don’t know if we get a breakout of this range in 2024 again. current swing trade: None chart update: Highlighted the nested triangles and removed the rest.
CRYPTO:BTCUSD
by priceactiontds