XAUUSD - CPI CPI CPI!The world's largest gold-backed mutual fund posted its biggest weekly outflows in more than two years last week. Donald Trump's resounding victory in the election caused traders to take their profits.
The SPDR fund (GLD) saw more than $1 billion in outflows, the fund's biggest weekly outflow since July 2022, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The price of gold decreased by 1.9% during the same period. Total gold ETF holdings fell 0.4 percent, the second straight weekly decline.
Investors usually look for safe assets in times of political and economic uncertainty. They sought the safe haven of gold last month as the US presidential election was expected to be competitive. But as Trump swept to victory after capturing key battleground states and Republicans took control of the Senate, the decisive outcome prompted investors to exit their positions to preserve their gains.
Trump's victory also boosted the value of the U.S. dollar and the stock market, which was a negative for gold as it made the bullion less attractive to investors holding other currencies. Bitcoin, for example, has been boosted by President-elect Donald Trump's embrace of the digital asset and the prospect of a Congress with pro-crypto lawmakers.
Gold traders continued to take profits on Monday, with prices hitting one-month lows and shares of gold mining companies falling.
Key economic events to watch include today's release of the US net Consumer Price Index (CPI) for October, which the Fed will be watching closely to assess whether consumer inflation remains on track to reach Is it at the 2% level or not?
Pivot Points
Copper - The negative impact of Trump's victory on commoditiesCopper is below the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is moving in its descending channel. If copper falls due to the release of today's economic data, we can see demand zone and buy within that zone with a suitable risk reward. If the upward trend starts and the bottom of the channel is maintained, it is possible to sell copper in the supply zones in the short term.
After Donald Trump’s victory in the U.S. election and the positive reaction from markets, investors are refocusing on economic data. Trump’s historic return to the White House was met with strong market responses, with stocks and Bitcoin reaching new highs and the U.S. dollar hitting a four-month peak.
Treasury yields also saw significant increases. It’s worth noting that yields have been rising since late September as investors anticipated fewer rate cuts by the Federal Reserve over the next two to three years. Now, Trump’s victory has diminished hopes for rate cuts. If Trump follows through on his promises to cut taxes and increase tariffs, these measures could drive prices up by boosting domestic demand and raising import costs. In this scenario, the Federal Reserve may have to maintain tight monetary policy for a longer period than current expectations.
The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, scheduled for release today, will provide the first economic clues post-election for rate cut forecasts. The annual CPI rate fell to 2.4% in September but is expected to rise to 2.5% in October. Monthly CPI is projected at 0.2%, unchanged from the previous month, while core CPI (excluding food and energy) is expected to increase from 3.3% to 3.4% in October.
In China, senior lawmakers approved a plan to shift local government debt to the official balance sheet, allowing Beijing to better assist local governments in managing debt challenges. The Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress also approved a plan to increase the local debt ceiling. According to Mr. Xu, head of the National People’s Congress Budget Committee, China intends to raise the local government debt cap by 6 trillion yuan.
China’s exports have also surged, as Beijing braces for Trump’s potential tariff threats. Chinese factories have ramped up production to ship goods to major export markets before any new tariffs are imposed. Trump’s election win has intensified tariff concerns among Chinese officials and factory owners.
Meanwhile, U.S. lawmakers have demanded more detailed information on advanced chip-making equipment sales to China by major manufacturers, reflecting growing tensions between the superpowers and concerns about potential military applications. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) has also informed several Chinese clients that it is suspending production of AI and high-performance computing chips to comply with U.S. export control laws.
On the other hand, Commerzbank predicts the potential for further gains in the U.S. dollar is limited, and that Trump’s macroeconomic policies may be less impactful than anticipated. While Trump’s policies are inflationary, the effects are likely to be contained, meaning the Federal Reserve may not need to raise interest rates.
THE BULLS OF BITCOIN [TRUMP+ELON] We're coming out of our corrective pattern with the chance to break into a new ATH once break our ascending triangle. This pattern is often bullish but with CME futures gap in play we can still see another correction before we're off to the 2nd phase of our pattern. Keep an eye on the altcoins and notice the money flow cycle. > > as we make our correction or we see a continuation with our ELLIOT WAVE THEORY . As we enter Q4 we can see people selling for losses or taking profits as we continue to crash upwards into 2025 with interest rates projected to fall in Dec.
Buy. Hold. Realize your profits once your PT's are hit.
With Trump taking office along with Department of Government Efficiency
The digital gold rush begins now.
EURGBP: Caution Ahead, Watch Key LevelsHello,
EURGBP has experienced some unexpected downside, but we've still seen profitable upside, especially on the conservative side—profit is profit! The 1W support has held up well so far, driving the price upward. To move towards the 1M PP, a solid cross and lock above the 1W PP is essential. However, caution is key at this stage, as a cross and lock below the 1D PP could lead to further downside.
There will be no market updates next week due to vacation plans. Wishing everyone happy trading—let's make some profits!
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EURAUD Set for Upside, Key Levels to WatchHello,
FX:EURAUD has shown strong support at the 1Y PP, positioning it for higher highs. The 1D PP further indicates potential upside from the current level. To confirm significant upward momentum, the next goal is for the price to break above the 1M PP. However, if the price falls below and stays below the 1Y PP, this analysis will be invalid.
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EURCHF Bearish, 0.934265 Support Key for ReversalHello,
OANDA:EURCHF is likely to experience further bearish movement after the elections, with the price expected to test the 1-year support level. However, if the 1-month strong support at 0.934265 holds, there may be a potential for a bullish reversal, though it's important not to get too optimistic.
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WTI Faces Downturn, Key 65.266 Support in FocusHello,
BLACKBULL:WTI is facing a downturn, with much of the previous bullish optimism fading. The 1-year low of 65.266 remains a key level to watch, as it could be tested again based on the current market conditions. If WTI manages to break above and hold confidently above the 1D pivot point, it would signal potential for further upside.
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Brent (UKOIL) Sees Downward Movement: Caution AdvisedHello,
BLACKBULL:BRENT (UKOIL) has experienced another downward movement. If the trendline remains intact, this could mark the low before a potential rebound. However, extreme caution is advised at this stage, as all indicators suggest a continuation of the bearish trend, which is trend-confirmed. A confirmation from the 1D PP would be required before considering holding a long position.
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GER30 Downside Likely Before Bullish ReversalHello,
FX:GER30 index has experienced some downside movement, with a likely continuation toward the 1-month low of 18,966.73. Given the current price level, a further drop to around 18,954.24 is anticipated before a bullish reversal may occur. This outcome is probable, but remain cautious and alert for any unexpected fluctuations!
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UK100 Approaching Key Support Zone for Potential ReversalHello,
CAPITALCOM:UK100 has encountered resistance at the 1M pivot point, leading to further downside movement. Currently, the price is approaching a strong support level at 7942.9445, which has historically held and may present a challenge. The zone between 7954.7045 and 7942.9445 is a potential reversal area, where the price could turn back upward. However, if it establishes itself below this range, further downside could ensue. Confidence is high that this could mark the definitive low before an upward trend resumes, though the opposite scenario cannot be ruled out. Time and confirmation will provide clarity.
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AUS200 Downside Potential: Key Support Levels in FocusHello,
PEPPERSTONE:AUS200 index may see further downside, potentially testing its previous low of 8053.85. If it drops below and holds under this level, it could decline further toward the three-month low at 7884.52. In the long term, the index fund remains a solid buy, as it is currently testing support levels as expected. Currently priced at 8149.905, this level previously served as strong support, and if it now acts as resistance, it would confirm additional downside potential.
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FRA40 Hits 3-Month Low, 1-Year Pivot Point Holds as SupportHello,
PEPPERSTONE:FRA40 has reached a new 3-month low at 7205.63, testing the 1-year pivot point (PP) as support. As long as it remains above this level, there is potential for an upward trend; however, if it establishes itself below the 1-year PP, further downside may follow.
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Biohaven Pharmaceutical | Chart & Forecast SummaryKey Indicators on Trade Set Up in General
1. Push Set Up
2. Range Set up
3. Break & Retest Set Up
Active Sessions on Relevant Range & Elemented Probabilities;
London(Upwards) - NYC(Downwards)
Conclusion | Trade Plan Execution & Risk Management On Demand;
Overall Consensus | Neutral
Range Resources Corporation | Chart & Forecast SummaryKey Indicators on Trade Set Up in General
1. Push Set Up
2. Range Set up
3. Break & Retest Set Up
Active Sessions on Relevant Range & Elemented Probabilities;
London(Upwards) - NYC(Downwards)
Conclusion | Trade Plan Execution & Risk Management On Demand;
Overall Consensus | Buy
Will BTCUSD’s Breakout Lead to a $90K Target?CRYPTO:BTCUSD
Multi-Timeframe Analysis
Current Price: 71,149.92
Bullish Indicators
• Cup and Handle Pattern
• Descending Broadening Wedge
Key Levels
• Strong Pivot Level: 62,500
• Ultimate Resistance: 75,000.00
• Primary Price Target: 90,000.00
Cup and Handle Pattern (Weekly Chart)
On the weekly chart, BTCUSD has formed a Cup and Handle pattern—a classic bullish continuation pattern suggesting renewed buying interest after a period of consolidation. The rounded bottom of the cup indicates strong accumulation, while the handle represents a temporary consolidation before the next upward move. Based on the measured depth of the cup, we find a potential long-term price projection around 120,000.00, aligning with broader bullish expectations in the current trend.
Descending Broadening Wedge (Daily Chart)
Zooming in on the daily chart, the handle section has formed a Descending Broadening Wedge. This pattern is another bullish indicator, often signaling potential for a breakout to the upside as it nears completion. Importantly, the price has recently broken the upper trendline of the wedge, reinforcing the likelihood of an upward movement. Based on our measurement of this wedge, we set a mid-term price target of 90,000.00, supporting the broader bullish outlook indicated by the Cup and Handle.
Monitor Key Support and Resistance Levels:
The strong pivot at 62,500 serves as a critical support level. Sustained movement above this level reinforces the bullish case.
Resistance Checkpoints:
Price momentum toward the ultimate resistance at 75,000.00 will be crucial to confirm the continuation of the bullish trend toward the primary target of 90,000.00.
Happy Trading!
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