Get started

Pips

Eur/Gbp under 0.8750 even though the Euro is trying to claw...Prior Downside targets have been met on this pair. The Euro recovers from a slightly deeper pullback from 1.2000 where 1.1 bn option expiry interest resides, the Kiwi bounces from under 0.7150 and Yen through 105.50 after hitting a sub-105.60 trough. Eur/Gbp under 0.8750 even though the Euro is trying to claw back losses against the Buck and other peers. Note, little reaction to latest comments from BoE’s Broadbent or weaker than expected Halifax house prices, as the Pound awaits more from Governor Bailey around the same time as NFP, but in cross terms 1.2 bn option expiries between 0.8760-70 could either cap rebounds or keep bears at bay.
Long
by FTUKcom
4
The Loonie remains anchored around 1.2800 with one eye...The Loonie remains anchored around 1.2800 with one eye on crude prices and the other on the upcoming Canadian labour report which could push up price. And as for the dollar it could purely be a case of consolidation ahead of the monthly BLS update, but also a function of external factors and perhaps some technical impulses given the fact that the DXY failed to sustain upward momentum towards the next bullish chart target in the form of the 100 DMA (91.839 as of today) having eclipsed Thursday’s peak by a fraction at one stage (91.600 vs 91.581), and is now back below 91.500 nearer a 91.329 low. However, the US Treasury yield backdrop and curve profile is also a tad less supportive, oil remains on the boil and precious metals are trying to find a footing after their fall from grace, with Gold back on the USD 1800/oz handle, albeit just and Silver straddling Usd 26.50/oz.
Long
by FTUKcom
5
EUR was slightly softer again but found support at the 1.20...Again another great move from EURUSD since my last post. Further bearish momentum to be expected. The euro was slightly softer again but found support at the 1.20 handle. The situation in Europe is mixed, Italian political uncertainty remains, although former ECB President Draghi has accepted the task to form a government, he is facing push back from right wing parties, where the Brothers of Italy Party Chief has proposed to right-leaning allies to abstain over the Draghi government, while the League leader Salvini says the best solution is elections. Meanwhile, the vaccination process is still grabbing media headlines, but inflation data this morning was encouraging, seeing a rise of 0.9% in January Y/Y, above the expected 0.4%.
Short
by FTUKcom
5
The dollar was flat/choppy today and managed to hold on to the..Recent targets have been met on this one. The dollar was flat/choppy today and managed to hold on to the 91 handle, off early highs of 91.30. Data out of the US was encouraging, with a strong ISM Services report and encouraging ADP employment data ahead of the official labour market report on Friday. On stimulus, the Senate approved a Budget Resolution measure in a 50-49 vote, with lawmakers voting along party lines (one Republican was unable to vote due to weather conditions), a step that lays the foundation for pursuing President Biden's USD 1.9trln stimulus plan via the reconciliation process. Analysts at Citi write this should see further USD weakness materialise, but its strategist write recent developments suggest the USD squeeze could extend further, but the desk does still believe 2021 will be a weak year for the buck.
TVC:DXYLong
by FTUKcom
4
EURJPY heading higher into next week...EUR The Euro looks set to end a whippy week nearer the upper end of its parameters vs the Greenback (1.2058-1.2183), and has taken some heed of better than expected Eurozone (German mainly) hard data after a rather downbeat Ifo survey. However, this does not begin to tell the full story as the single currency sold off sharply when ECB’s Knot declared that the GC could cut rates further to counter Euro strength if required, and his dovish interjection was compounded by an official source reportedly saying that markets are underestimating the odds of an ease. Subsequently, at least 2 other policy-makers and different sources have downplayed the probability of lower rates, with only marginal deliberations on that stimulus as benefits are deemed limited, while Euro appreciation is not a big concern given comparatively small moves over the last 6 months. JPY 105.00 vs the Dollar seems to have been a stretch too far for Yen bears, but having failed to build enough momentum to scale 103.50 and then falling below 104.00 it’s been almost a vertical line for Usd/Jpy. Notably, the breach of 104.40 when that was the 100 DMA only paused briefly ahead of 104.50, and the ensuing advance was even more rapid in wake of softer than anticipated Japanese IP and a BoJ Summary of Opinions urging the Bank to strengthen its easing stance due to heightened deflationary threats. Note also, the Yen was excluded from the list of G10s to buy vs the Buck for the turn of the month and this was also evident in the Eur/Jpy and other crosses.
Long
by FTUKcom
4
THE DOLLAR sold off today with a recovery in stocks today...THE DOLLAR sold off today with a recovery in stocks today amid solid tech earnings which saw the index fall beneath the 90.50 handle again. The risk on tone was attributed to the retracement of the vol spike yesterday as hedge funds reentered equity longs, although stimulus talks, vaccine progress, earnings were added tailwinds, as was better than expected jobless claims; GDP was in line with expectations, while New Home Sales were slightly short. The dollar softness led to a firmer EUR, with consumer confidence data more encouraging as economic sentiment picked up above expectations, while the other metrics were better than feared. After recent sour reports/talk of a cut from the ECB, ECB’s Kazak said he sees no rate cut needed now and that other instruments are better suited, but the tool is not off the table if circumstances were to change. XAU and XAG were interesting, Silver caught a heavy bid on talk that the WallStBets crew were looking to take silver “to the moon”, which drove the metal price higher, which also supported gold; the moves were faded somewhat in latter trade. Cyclical currencies were firmer in fitting with the rebound in equity prices, there was outperformance in NZD although it failed to reclaim 0.72 at pixel time, while AUD just stopped short of 0.77 irrespective of another potential clash with China over trade following calls from the Chinese Iron and Steel body to reduce the country’s dependence on imported iron ore. CAD was flat against the buck as the risk on appetite failed to spur large gains in oil, hampering CAD gains. GBP reclaimed 1.37 amid the risk rally.
Long
by FTUKcom
2
Super choppy few days. The Dollar is firmer across the board...Super choppy few days. The Dollar is firmer across the board in the run up to the FOMC amidst little expectation of really anything major in terms of policy moves or fresh guidance beyond the inevitable updated assessment of the economic situation and outlook since the prior meeting, plus anything Fed chair Powell reveals in the press conference via text or during the Q&A (full preview of the event available in the Research Suite). However, durable goods in the interim often has the potential to surprise and could provide the Buck and index with another test of resilience after the latter extended its run of consecutive closes above 90.000 on Tuesday to 9 trading sessions, and just carved out a firmer 90.432 intraday high vs 90.119 at one stage, albeit with a big helping hand from the Euro.
TVC:DXYLong
by FTUKcom
1