1220 USOIL could not break top zone and turn down sideways againHello traders,
This Thursday, Bitcoin's price experienced significant fluctuations, dropping from $102,000 to $97,000, a decline of $5,000 overnight. If we consider the high point from last weekend, the "tulip bloom," to the current "withered" state, it has fallen a total of $11,000 within a week.
As a reminder, the second half of December is the period of tightest liquidity in the U.S. Everything is sellable!
Therefore, when Federal Reserve Chairman Powell clearly stated, "We are not allowed to own Bitcoin," it can at least be confirmed that the rumors of the Fed holding Bitcoin have been dispelled, and the U.S. government's plans to accumulate Bitcoin are nearly impossible. This means that Bitcoin's price has finally returned to "normal," reflecting the trend of tightening liquidity.
On Thursday, there are several important data points to pay attention to:
1. U.S. Dollar Index: 108.3
2. 10-Year Treasury Yield: 4.57%
3. 30-Year Treasury Yield: 4.74%
These figures indicate that inflation expectations are rising. In particular, the 30-year Treasury yield is just about 10 basis points away from this year's high of 4.81%, and less than 40 basis points from the 2017 peak of 5.11%. Over the past two weeks, the 30-year Treasury yield has risen by 40 basis points.
What is the current market consensus? The small red circle suggests shorting U.S. Treasuries and going long on the dollar.
Today is Friday, a special day, as it marks the largest and most important options expiration date (OPEX) of 2024. Given the maximum OPEX, the impending government shutdown, and the tightening liquidity, the market may experience significant volatility!!!!!! Major attention is needed during this time, particularly during U.S. market hours (9:00 PM Beijing time to early Saturday morning).
Wednesday's internal tips:
On the 4-hour chart, crude oil has retraced below the EMA and the first resistance level, which diverges from the daily chart (where the candlestick is above the EMA) and the weekly chart (which has broken through the bottom resistance line), creating a selection issue for the market.
**Idea One:** You can choose to enter new long positions after the 4-hour chart returns above the EMA.
**Idea Two:** You can also consider a larger risk-reward ratio, entering the market opportunistically while the 4-hour chart is below the EMA, but the daily and weekly charts remain bullish.
For existing long positions that have not hit the stop loss, it is recommended to hold on, based on the second idea mentioned above.
TP1: 71.5
TP2: 72.0
TP3: 72.70
On Wednesday, during U.S. market hours, crude oil faced resistance at the first resistance level;
On Thursday, during U.S. market hours, crude oil was blocked by the 4-hour EMA.
At this point, the long crude oil trades hit their stop loss, and positions were closed, requiring a reevaluation of the trading strategy.
Since Wednesday, under the pressure of the Fed's hawkish interest rate cuts, the demand outlook for crude oil has become increasingly bleak. Moreover, the market's further slowdown in easing expectations poses severe challenges for oil prices. Currently, the market generally believes that there will be a significant oversupply of global oil next year.
In this market expectation, a rise in oil prices has become almost impossible. Market sentiment is low, and investors are generally cautious about the oil market. In the coming months, oil prices are likely to remain under pressure, making it difficult to regain their former glory.
From a technical perspective, on the 4-hour chart, crude oil continues to struggle within a sideways range.
On Friday, plan to establish new short positions. On the 1-hour chart, during European and American market hours, look for an opportunity to enter short positions on crude oil based on a 1-hour reversal signal.
TP1: 67.50
TP2: 66.60
Mid-term short position take-profit level: 63.50.
GOOD LUCK!
LESS IS MORE!
