STZ showing strength, oversold w 200 Day support and CGC comingEoY 2018 plus Canopy investment caused a fall out of long term range. An improvement in CGC (currently oversold) means a likely return to that range, which means a possible run to $240 by EoY 2020. Even if it doesn't recapture the previous trading range, it is at the bottom of this one. Expect a near term jump especially with CGC earnings coming up.
Oversold
ZENA at 23.5 is a double bottom and STRONG speculative buyTraders should note the double bottom at 23.5 This is a speculative buy at this point but with chances we might go lower as confusion over $ZENA and Z$ENA.RT continues with investors and traders. Bears have been viciously taking advantage of the situation and rightly so.
The last standing living mauled bulls aren't moving and a large group of new trading and investing bulls are all watching for the charts to turn bullish. A large take over hostile takeover of Zenabis might be in the works.
I'm scaling in although it's not prudent. Waiting for the confirmed higher highs & higher lows for a safer position. Fully diluted market cap is $82M CAD or $62M USD. That's with $20.8M fresh cash in the coffers from the Rights Offering to be completed in November. With over 5M grams of production expected in November, the short term crash created a great buying opportunity.
CTRA BUY?Contura Energy, Inc. (NYSE: CTRA), Time To Buy?
If you are in the money making game probably you have one question in your mind:
How can I pick the next stock to invest in or to trade with?
Honestly, it`s not easy, but luckily you have multiple chooses in front of you.
Firstly, and this is a harder way, you can spend days of researching through thousands of publicly traded companies and expert advises and opinions.
However, there is an easier way to. For instance, you can look at the stocks that smart money investors are collectively bullish on. The idea is next:
Where the smart money goes, profits are flows.
Smart money, AKA hedge funds, and other institutional investors and professional traders usually invest large amounts of money and time, and they have to conduct due diligence while choosing their next stock to invest in, and trade with.
The truth is that they don't always get it right, but, on average, their picks historically generated stronger returns from 90% of retail, sessional traders. Especially after adjusting for known risk factors.
Speaking about hedge funds guys, let’s take a look at their recent activity with Contura Energy Inc. (NYSE: CTRA)
Let us be clear, CTRA is not among the most popular stocks, but it was in 22 hedge funds portfolios at the end of June.
A total of 22 of the hedge funds are bullish on this stock. At the same time there is a change of -31% from March.
Since CTRA has experienced a decline in interest from hedge fund managers, logic holds that there is a sect of fund managers that decided to sell off their entire stakes last quarter.
Still, the largest shareholder of CTRA, with a stake worth $118.5 million reported as of the end of March, is Whitebox Advisors. It is worth to mention that CTRA stock returned -46.1% during the third quarter and underperformed the market.
That is right, CTRA is deeply oversold at the moment.
Note this- At The Moment- because the price can still be in the red for some time, but rebound are coming.
The oversold levels are among the best ones to jump in and potentially to make solid returns. Same levels have the best Risk/Reword ratio, and as you know higher risk is to buy something what is already at the pick and overbought, comparing with buying at oversold levels such as this one.
From Technical Analysis point of view the price is near 3Y low.
The absolute low is at 16.59 level. The RSI, on weekly chart, with his current levels, between 20 and 30, suggesting that rebound can occur. At the same time this is a signal that the price is oversold and in a down trend. According to technical analysis the most reliable buy signal is when the RSI cross over 30 levels. Current value is 27.
On a daily chart RSI is above 40 level, and the support level at 22.58. Current price is 23.69 and potentially can test support level in near time. It is crucial to monitor this level and the RSI movement in order to find the best possible entrance.
Potential target can be found at 32.45 level.
According to analysts gathered on CNN money expected up movement is up to +52% at 36 level.
Example of trading plan can be with S/L at 22.50 (-5%) and T/P at 32.40 (+26%).
WORK - Is Lunch Over?Since its IPO, WORK has not done very much for its investors. As the chart shows, it has basically been a descending channel that has been unbroken up to this point in time.
The recent price movement, however, has created a bullish divergence with the RSI indicator while the price is moving out of an oversold condition. This combination may allow the price to move up and out of the bearish channel. I would not expect any giant bullish move, but if you were interested in a short-term trade, the opportunity may be there soon.
Altcoin Speculation Coming Soon...Smaller cap altcoin dominance is leaving the RSI oversold conditions (of less than 30) this week and is currently reading 31.73. This comes after nearly three months of being oversold after dominance fell below the 200 Week MA. The last time "Other altcoins" dominance spent this long in oversold conditions was at the end of 2015, for two months, before rising from less than a 1% to it's ATH above 15%. Altcoin speculation is coming...
Bullish arguments:
RSI leaving oversold conditions
MACD bullish crossover
CMF bullish divergence
Rising volume, 2x from Jan 18
$AMTD Goes Commision Free, Buy Before they doAfter Charles Schwab came out to go commission free, TD Ameritrade ( $AMTD) sent out the news that night (Tuesday Oct. 1)
The commission free trading starts on October 3rd but I think it is time to get in prior to that and let all the users save their $6.95 and buy in on Thursday.
This drop was huge- between 25-30% from not too long ago.
Set up your Stop/Loss to ensure safety.
*Note- this is a weekly chart.
Let's get a Higher Education w/ $CECOThis stock entered my Over sold watchlist late last week and I was waiting for a little bounce back to ensure that a bottom had been represented. Opened up steaming today and again watched the 5m chart to ensure proper entrance after first dip and then bounce back.
Goals and price points are listed on the chart at multiple price levels to ensure profit that can be had in just a few days or even a few weeks.
S/L set at opening price way back on Feb. 21 at a Price Earnings Gap play.
OGI CRITICAL SUPPORT/RESISTANCE ZONEHello !
Here are my thoughts on the stock Organigram is at in its current market state. As you can see with the numerous weekly candle touches, this stock is at a critical zone. I believe a reversal would be most probable giving the RSI, MFI, and Stochastic RSI are all oversold and finding a nice bounce in this zone.
Not investment advice, just my idea ! :) happy trading !
Has Metcalfe's Law Stopped Working for Bitcoin?Metcalfe's Law has been successfully used to value a variety of network effect technologies and businesses, including Facebook and Tencent.
Applying Metcalfe's Law to Bitcoin , using "Daily Active Addresses" (DAA) as the "n" value, yields interesting results.
Historically, Bitcoin has tracked the Metcalfe Law Fair Price reasonably well. A number of studies have been performed over recent years which validate this and have used various derivations of Metcalfe’s Law. Note: this indicator sticks to the original Metcalf’s Law.
Prior to 2018, every time Bitcoin was above the Metcalfe’s Law fair price (calculated using a default “A” of 0.5 here), a bubble had formed, and price quickly reverted back down to the mean.
Nonetheless, since February 2018, Metcalfe's Law Fair Price has remained below the actual Bitcoin price, suggesting Bitcoin is currently overvalued.
There may be a few reasons for this:
1. Possibility A: Bitcoin may still be extremely overvalued. Since the December 2017 peak, Bitcoin has only reverted to the Metcalfe’s Law Fair Price briefly during the December 2018 bottom. If this case is true, there could be further to fall unless DAA numbers pick up to fill the gap.
2. Possibility B: The introduction of side-chains, private transactions and the Lightning Network may have fundamentally altered the effectiveness of using DAA to value Bitcoin . As more daily transactions are completed off-chain, or on large platforms/exchanges which use fewer addresses, the relative number and growth of DAA may be misrepresented and artificially low. In this case, DAA as it is reported today is no longer useful in assessing the fair value of Bitcoin with Metcalfe’s Law and this Indicator is effectively useless.
3. Possibility C: Neither of the above are true. We are just in an anomalous period in which price and Metcalfe’s Law Fair Price have deviated from the mean for an extended period (and will meet again in the future, potentially at a higher price).
4. Possibility D: Metcalfe’s Law doesn’t really work for Bitcoin .
I am inclined to believe Possibilities “C” and “D” are unlikely. Given the way Bitcoin infrastructure is being developed and used in 2019, Possibility “B” seems the most likely, as this case is supported by the fact that a number of other metrics indicate that Bitcoin is currently on the lower side of “fair value” (including Dynamic Range NVT Signal).
If Possibility “B” is false, or the impact of private network address usage is negligible, the Bitcoin network may not in a healthy state, with DAA values basically flat for the last 3 years.
Regardless, Possibility “A” remains a candidate. Only time will tell. It will be interesting to check back on this indicator in 12-24 months time. Hopefully this indicator has been proven redundant by then.
Dynamic Range NVT Signal for Long-term Bitcoin ValuationABOUT DYNAMIC RANGE NVT SIGNAL
NVT Signal (Credit: woobull.com) is akin to a "PE" ratio for Bitcoin, and can be used to identify when Bitcoin is overbought or oversold based on the relative value of transactions sent across the network.
This indicator includes a 2 year moving average and standard deviation to identify outlier values, instead of declaring a static high-low range for relative valuation.
THEORY
A dynamic "high-low" range was chosen for the following reasons:
- Bitcoin is only 10 years old, it is likely that relatively "high" and relatively "low" NVT values will change with time, as have PE ratios over the last century.
- Some transactions are now made off-chain (eg. Liquid Network's private side-chain which is used by many major exchanges). If this trend continues, we can expect "normal" NVT ranges to increase with time (as the relative portion of public on-chain transaction values decreases).
CALCULATION
- NVT = Circulating Market Cap / 90 average On-chain Transaction Value*
- Overbought (default): NVT > 2-year mean + 2*standard deviations. I.e. NVT Signal is in the top 2.5% of values for the prior 2 years.
- Oversold (default) NVT < 2-year mean.**
*Data source: Blockchain.info, estimated transaction value does not include returned to sender as change.
**Oversold under 2-year mean was chosen due to the skewness of NVT Signal, it is not quite normally distributed. For example: NVT Signal has never been less than the 2-year mean - 2* standard deviations. This may change in the future.
NOTES ON USAGE
- Use with care. Bitcoin can remain "overbought" or "oversold" for extended periods (eg. 2015-2016).
- As Bitcoin ages, the validity of NVT Signal will need to be monitored. Particularly with respect to potentially increasing use of side-chains, private transactions and potentially the lightning network.
- It is likely that a 2-year “look back period” for calculating mean and standard deviation will not be sufficient in the decades to come. As Bitcoin matures and stabilizes (some time in the future), a longer "look back period" should probably be used. To allow for this, the defaults for this indicator can be easily adjusted.
OVERSOLD BTCWe can see starting from April, the beginning of the bullish phase, that the trend has not changed.
We find BTC oversold, in a tracing and accumulation phase called CORRECTION.
Obviously it is a dangerous and difficult point to understand.
If BTC is in a bullish phase then it does not go down under this support (8k).
In these cases the fundamental analysis works better than the technical one.
DENT/USDT IDEAProvided that BTC is in consolidation, it's time for alts to shine ! In my opinion, DENT/USDT looks like a pretty good buy at the current levels given the oversold circumstances.
Take profit zone will be the top red horizontal line.
Unfortunately on the bearish side, price action is in a descending triangle. Usually a continuation pattern for further downward movement, hence the SL line under the box. Hopefully we don't break this triangle to the downside !
Happy trades everyone ! :)
USDJPY - Prepare for BUY! - Oversold - MomentumHi Traders!
As you can see this is a very good buy oppurtunity because we have many confirmation.
1.: For all price action and technical analysts of you:
The market is reaching a strong support and it has to test it.
2.: For all RSI-Indicator Traders:
The RSI tells us that the market is oversold.
3.: For all Momentum traders:
The MACD Histogram shows us a strong moment. When it touches the support it will bounce back.
We're seeing forward to buy this pair at 107.122 with a risk-to-reward of 1 to 2!
Thanks and good luck :)!
Bitcoin's Pullback to Upper Support - A buying Opportunity We entered the third era of Bitcoin , the rebirth with an increasing weekly traded volume at 75,000 coins and a succession of RSI overbought levels marking an uprising bullish strength. After settling at the lowest level of the era 3500.0 USD per coin, the crypto is aiming for 20000.0 and upper levels with its third euphoria.
The current support @6000.0 acts like a magnet to attract prices. In fact, the predicted upward momentum should be the as same as every phase, +300%.
4 H BTC UPDATEHello there guys, after few day of inactivity, after the weekly close, yday monthly and quarterly close we have still the bounce up due to oversold reasons going on.
We could see the volume was declining, hence a possible rebound due to oversold regions in almost all oscillators.
We broke our 1st resistance point at 8290-8300, next possible resistance is 8800, which i think could be the maximum we could have as run up for now, REMEMBER THAT THIS IS NOT A BULL RUN!!!, as you can see we are still under the long term EMA (yellow, blue and light blue) and only the fast EMA turning back, we are still under the death cross, this is just a relief bounce up. Possible we have some wicks above 8800, which is also where we find the FIB level 0.382 level.
I'm looking to close my 50% of my longs after breaking the 4 h 50 EMA (yellow), then let it ride till it goes, then also looking a point to revers the long trade to a short.
BTCUSD Critical Point | 200 MA | Oversold Bounce Hello Traders!
Hope you all had a great weekend,
Update on BTC recent developments on the daily chart , at a very critical point, trading below the 200 Moving Average, we need it to break and stay above this level to keep a bullish bias.
Points to consider,
- Daily trend bearish
- Price testing structural resistance
- Price below key moving average
- Stochastics in lower region
- RSI levels oversold
- .50 Fibonacci acting as resistance
- .618 Fibonacci is local support
- EMA’s both resistance
- Volume declining after climax
Bitcoin is trading at a very key region, right below the 200 moving average which is in confluence with structural resistance and the .50 Fibonacci level. The daily trend is considered to be bearish as we have not put in a higher high coming out of the bearish descending triangle .
The stochastics is well below in lower regions, flattening out; we need to see it show an upper projection. This can be in confluence with the RSI , being way oversold at current time; an oversold bounce may be probable to cool off both these indicators…
The Fibonacci levels are quite interesting, the .50 as mentioned before is now a key resistance level , and the 200 moving average coming over price at current given time makes this area of very strong resistance. The .618 Fibonacci level is considered as local support, price is more probable to quickly reach this region if the 200 moving average does not get broken…
Volume is declining after volume climax’s, this shows that a volatile move will be at play, we could see a Bart move back and over the 200 MA and or another flush down, to local support, the .618 Fibonacci level…
What are your thoughts?
Will BTC break this critical resistance level or flush down to local support?
IMO it’s pretty risky at current given time, we don’t have a clear direction however, few indicators are over extended, thus a oversold bounce would be more probable…
Please leave a like and comment,
And remember
“A lot of people get so enmeshed in the markets that they lose their perspective. Working longer does not necessarily equate with working smarter. In fact, sometimes is the other way around.” – Martin Schwartz
BTCUSD - Glass half full approachCOINBASE:BTCUSD is having a rough few days. Price is dropping hard and it seems there isn't a consensus of where support will come in.
I'm not willing to take a position just yet, but I do want to say that having the RSI already at historic low levels is a bad thing on the daily chart, it does represent some improvement. The major drop from 6k to 3k had RSI reach record daily low levels never before seen in Bitcoin history. Do I think this dump will produce worse RSI levels than the dump at 6k? Most likely not.
While we have consolidated for several months and broken down out of the consolidation that does not mean this may not end up being a great dip-buying opportunity. As stated, the RSI is historically oversold, however, in the past, RSI typically doesn't stay oversold long for Bitcoin. The dump for the 6k consolidation that took nearly a year was the lone exception.
I'm not convinced we stop and turn around here, because downward momentum on the weekly charts is hard to ignore. However, I will be watching for a potential divergence forming on the RSI on the daily charts if this break down is not bought up swiftly soon, and I imagine it won't.
Certainly worth me keeping my eye on.
DISCLAIMER: For educational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing in this content should be interpreted as financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any sort of security or investment including all types of crypto. DYOR, TYOB.
BTCUSD: Price stuck Between 200 Day MA & EMABTCUSD price is stuck between the 200 Day MA at $8,311 and the 200 Day EMA: $8,768. Waiting for a close above 200 Day EMA ($8.8K) or below 200 Day MA ($8.2K) to open a long/short position. Daily RSI oversold, CMF has turned bearish, MACD looks tragic. Waiting for the next breakout or fakeout, likely downwards.
ZS Support Line? Neg Earnings Brought us Here- Over SoldNot so many days ago, ZS missed earnings by a little bit but still show strong revenue support.
You can see the downward gap on earnings day.
BUT-
Back in February you see the Positive Power Earnings Gap from the $50 support level up to the $57 level. Almost the exact same line as this recent earnings fall. This triggered an OVER SOLD on my watchlist and took a look at RSI well below 30. I love these spots and when looked at trend from beginning of the year through beginning of July, ZS was steadily in growth mode. We are at a greater than 40% price break from the 52 week high of 89.54
Let's see if we can't reach that GAP back up to $59 over the next month or so.
Thoughts?
ChainLink is preparing to test 50 EMA - ($1.95)Fundamental Reason
Last days COINBASE: BTCUSD stated process of diversification towards ETH and XRP.
We can easily see that diversification from BTC Dominance to CRYPTOCAP:ETH.D and XRP Dominance which are pumping in the last few days.
Events from this kind are telling us that the potential drop is coming in the next 3 weeks. Before the drop to appear on the entire crypto market we are going to see growth in different alt-coins, most likely ChainLink will be one of them.
Technical Reason
At the moment BINANCE:LINKUSDT is at the oversold stage. RSI shows us potential Double Bottom formation. The price was able to rise above 200 Exponential Moving Average, which is speaking of strength and a higher probability for further growth. Volume is under 50 Moving Average, and a potential big move is coming. Likely the price will try directly at 50 candles Exponential Moving Average and tested it as resistance (price around $1.95).
Supports - $ 1.50, $ 1.45
Resistances - $ 1.95, $ 2.05
Good Luck!