S&P 500 Early Bearish SignsStill bullish as long price finds support at 21 weekly SMA and weekly RSI > 50
Oscillators
Or do we have to wait for longer?Here we assume that XRP won't go after the ATH just yet. We will have to see if #Bitcoin chills out for a moment and starts either distributing or slightly correcting to $98-100K regions. We can then assume the corrective wave (primary W4) will be deeper or a more complex variant (here presumed an expanded flat). The flat correction would allow for consolidation and a potential RSI reset, possibly forming a bullish divergence to signal a reversal which is typical between waves 3 and 5.
A clear break of the lower trendline and failure to hold $1.97 would validate this scenario. The invalidation for this scenario will be taking out the recently set high at $2.9. Given the corrective nature of expanded flats, completion of this structure could extend into early 2025, aligning with broader market uncertainties and potential shifts in macro sentiment.
Can we set a new ATH before 2025?This scenario presents a classic Ending Diagonal structure for Primary Wave (5), where XRP has likely completed Wave (4) near $1.90 and is now advancing upward to set new ATH. After entering price discovery and everybody FOMOs in, a significant portion of HODLers will start taking profits which will slow down the momentum and eventually leads to the formation of a bearish divergence marking the end of the impulse.
The first major resistance is the current high at $2.9 then the 2017's ATH at $3.31, from which we can expect a smaller degree correction.
For this scenario to unfold, we will need a steady momentum. Then we can expect it to set a new ATH before the end of year. Personally, my targets for this would be somewhere between $4 and $7 by late Jan to early Feb 2025, given the current pace and Trump's inauguration (and maybe SEC settlement?).
AES Corporation - Short term view with strong supportSo first of all both price and indicators are confirming the downtrend.
Today NYSE:AES opened with a gap succeeding yesterday's equilibrium in price with doji candles.
The price is still in the middle of the regression line and in the next few days the price don't seems to be close to upper 2 SD.
In the print above the yellow line shows the support at $11.43. The image's time horizon starts at the end of 2006.
Furthermore looking at short ratio available online the value is about 2,7 from mid October as well as more than 22M short interest
FTSE - recovery jump after strong sell offHi guys, we are looking into the FTSE 100 ,currently it is sitting in a very oversold area on 1H and 4H time frames, so I am analysing a short term up-beta momentum.
Entry : 8,109
Target : 8,232
As always my friends happy trading!
P.S. If you have questions or inquiries about one of my existing set-ups or personal questions / 1 on 1 sessions consider joining my channel so you can follow up with me in private!
Bitcoin: Hold now, buy laterHello,
Bitcoin is a clear uptrend as the price is above the moving averages, as the picture on the left side of the chart shows. Technical indicators like Ultimate Oscillator, ADX, MOM, and MACD are bullish. However, RSI indicators are overbought, which means Bitcoin might go higher, but there'll be a better time to buy when the market corrects the overbought conditions. I hold my Bitcoins, but I won't buy any more until the upcoming correction, which might come soon.
Regards,
Ely
S&P500 Weekly - Toppy SituationDivergence between price and the RSI oscillator, and between price and the MACD oscillator indicate that the current situation going into 2025 is a toppy one. One might consider watching these oscillators and being on the lookout for a shorting opportunity or a bullish resolution of the divergence (less likely) through Q1.
Nasdaq Bounce or Break? 21340 Becomes the BattlegroundNasdaq futures may have seen an ugly decline following the Fed’s rate decision but it’s noteworthy the price remained respectful of technical levels, bouncing off 21340.75 at the height of the carnage.
It’s far too early to call a bottom, especially with momentum indicators mixed: MACD has crossed over from above, generating a bearish signal, but the long-running uptrend in RSI (14) remains intact. Therefore, rather than trying to anticipate directional risks based on thin volumes going through in Asian trade, I’d much rather see how the price action evolves into Europe and US.
If the price tests and holds again 21340.75, longs could be established above the level with a stop beneath for protection. Apart from a minor level at 21608, there’s little visual resistance until the record highs.
Alternatively, if the price breaks 21340.75 and cannot reverse back higher, you could flip the setup around, selling beneath the level with a stop above for protection. 20984 and important 50-day moving average are nearby levels of note, with a break of the latter opening the possibility of a deeper flush towards 20400.
More broadly, for the carnage witnessed following the Fed, its updated rate projections were not significantly different to what traders were anticipating before the event. And when you step back and look at where markets see the funds rate bottoming this cycle, it’s around 70bps higher than where the Fed’s dot plot indicated.
What the Fed signalled was a slower pace of cuts, not a large reduction in cuts. One 25bps move was removed from the profile by the end of 2027. That’s it. Based on the market reaction, you’d think multiple cuts were removed!
That makes me think the move was more about market positioning rather than a truly monumental hawkish shift, making me question how long the rout can be sustained when that reality sets in.
The key is whether it can be supported in the support zone
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(NAS100USD 1D chart)
Support zone
1st: Left Fibonacci ratio 2.24 (21039.7) ~ 21348.0
2nd: 19582.6
However, when the M-Signal indicator on the 1W chart is touched, whether it is supported or not is important.
The next volatility period is expected to be around December 26th.
If it is maintained above the M-Signal indicator on the 1M chart, it is expected to eventually rise to the left Fibonacci ratio 2.618 (23557.7) ~ right Fibonacci ratio 1.27 (23962.1) and re-determine the trend.
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Thank you for reading to the end.
I hope you have a successful trade.
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GBP/NZD Overbought, slight correction - short term tradeHi guys, making up a short term trade on the GBP/NZD ,because it is very overbought and has reached higher resistance level on 1H time frame and 4H time frames.
Entry : 2.21970
Target: 2.20998
Stop : 2.22452
As always my friends happy trading!
P.S. If you have questions or inquiries about one of my existing set-ups or personal questions / 1 on 1 sessions consider joining my channel so you can follow up with me in private!
Ethereum - bearish divergence alert - Dec 19th, 2024** Trigger warning - the following post may cause skin irritation and involuntary expletives **
The entire market is bullish on Ethereum.
All of social media is bullish on Ethereum.
The Motley Fool is even bullish on Ethereum (Huge red flag!!)
“Ethereum looks undervalued relative to its potential”
source:
www.fool.com
=====================================================
The TA:
Your only source of news should be the chart. The chart has a headline for you to read:
“Strongest bearish divergence print since the 90% and 80% crashes of 2018 and 2021”
Yes, the same specific settings used to track market pivots with divergence on Ethereum price action has printed once more.
On the above 8 day chart price action prints negative divergence with multiple oscillators over an 80 day period. The bear flag forecasts price action to correct until $700.
If you’re bullish on price action you have to reason why… why is this time different?
(Trump said... yes, would never mislead that one)
If you’re neutral on price action and considering a long entry, look left, is now that moment?
If you’re bearish on price action, well then you’re in poor company and public enemy number one. Welcome to my world!
Is it possible price action continues to rise? Sure! We’re in a bull market, din’t you get the memo?
Is it probable? No.
Ww
BITCOIN SHORT 1. By attention to Daily and Weekly time frames it forms really distinct divergence between price and RSI
2. really far from EMA 200, the price must come close to it
both of them plus other scenarios alerts falling asap but who don't know when????
WazirX (WRX)On the above 6-day chart price action has corrected over 90% since the sell signal in April 2021 (not shown). Now is the time to be long. Why?
1) You know why.
2) Price action and RSI resistance breakouts.
3) Multiple oscillators print bullish divergence over 120 day period.
4) Point no. (3) occurs on past resistance.
Is it possible for price action to fall further? Sure.
Is it probable? No.
Ww
Type: trade
Risk: <=6% of portfolio
Timeframe: Don’t know.
Return: HKEX:19 / 100x
#BTCUSDT #4h (Bitget Futures) Rising wedge on resistanceBitcoin uptrend looks exhausted and keeps getting rejected on overbought RSI zone, a retracement down to 100EMA support seems around the corner.
⚡️⚡️ #BTC/USDT ⚡️⚡️
Exchanges: Bitget Futures
Signal Type: Regular (Short)
Leverage: Isolated (15.0X)
Amount: 5.0%
Current Price:
106966.8
Entry Zone:
107142.0 - 108740.0
Take-Profit Targets:
1) 104521.8
1) 101946.7
1) 99371.7
Stop Targets:
1) 110802.2
Published By: @Zblaba
CRYPTOCAP:BTC BITGET:BTCUSDT.P #4h #Bitcoin bitcoin.org
Risk/Reward= 1:1.2 | 1:2.1 | 1:3.0
Expected Profit= +47.5% | +83.3% | +119.1%
Possible Loss= -39.8%
Estimated Gaintime= 1-2 weeks
EconOptic| BTC's bullish move isn't done yet!KUCOIN:BTCUSDT
**Bitcoin Technical Analysis for Today in 4-Hour Timeframe**
Bitcoin is currently moving within an ascending channel in the 4-hour timeframe, forming higher highs and higher lows. Based on this trend, our goal is to align with the price's upward movement and open long positions. Given the market's high volatility, it is essential to set wider and more secure stop losses and enter trades only with strong triggers to minimize risks during potential price consolidations.
At present, the price is interacting with the midline support of the ascending channel. The decreasing volume of bearish candles and their shrinking size indicate a possible power shift from sellers to buyers in a short-term cycle. Additionally, this level coincides with Bitcoin's previous resistance, which has now turned into support, acting as a crucial barrier against further declines. This confluence with the channel's midline creates a Potential Reversal Zone (PRZ).
On the other hand, the RSI is moving along the lower Bollinger Band, which, in an uptrend, signals the exhaustion of selling pressure and the potential resurgence of buyers. This serves as further confirmation for seeking a reliable trigger to open a long position.
The entry trigger for a long position in this analysis is marked at the price level of **107,538** with a green line. Upon price stabilization above this level, you can proceed with a buy position. The stop loss placement depends on your risk tolerance and expectations:
- For a closer stop loss, you may place it around the white line and the midline of the channel.
- For a safer stop loss, set it below the red line at **99,422**, which coincides with the SMA 99 and provides an additional barrier to further price drops.
**Conclusion:**
Considering the confluence of support factors, reduced selling pressure, and technical indicators, Bitcoin appears poised to continue its upward trend. However, adhering to risk management principles and entering trades only with confirmed triggers is crucial to capitalize on this movement.
POL with 14% gains Entry can be taken when the price sustains above 698 of the curve formation projections of which will raise to the Target of 850+ which would be the gain of 21%+
Planned entry: 698
Target Price is around 846
Stop Loss 549
Entering the volatility period
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If USDT and USDC continue their gap uptrend, I think it is a sign that funds are flowing into the coin market.
I think that for the altcoin bull market to start, BTC dominance must fall below 55.01 and be maintained or continue to fall.
Therefore, the key is whether it can fall after receiving resistance near the M-Signal indicator or Fibonacci ratio 0.5 (57.95) on the 1W chart.
The decline in USDT dominance is likely to result in a rise in the coin market.
The USDT dominance is expected to touch around 2.84 at the most.
Therefore, the key is whether it can fall after receiving resistance near 3.99-4.16.
If the USDT dominance rises above 4.97, the coin market is likely to show a sharp decline.
Therefore, if it is maintained above 4.97, I think the coin market is likely to turn into a downtrend.
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(BTCUSDT 1W chart)
If BTC continues to rise like this, I also hope so.
However, since the StochRSI indicator is maintained at 100 and the StochRSI EMA indicator is approaching 100, BTC will eventually show a downward trend.
Therefore, even if it continues to rise further, it will touch the Fibonacci ratio 2 (106178.85) and show a downward trend.
The StochRSI indicator does not tell us how much the fluctuation will occur.
If it starts to decline,
1st: 87.8K-89K
2nd: 79.9K-80.9K
There is a possibility that it will touch the 1st and 2nd areas above.
If not, and it shows a sideways pattern, it seems that volatility is likely to occur when touching the M-Signal indicator on the 1W chart.
The volatility period on the 1W chart is around the week including December 23rd.
Therefore, it can be seen that the volatility period is from December 16th to January 5th.
If the BW(100) indicator or the HA-High indicator is newly created during the volatility period, it is important to see if it can be supported near it.
-
(1D chart)
I will update after a new candle is created.
-
Thank you for reading to the end.
I hope you have a successful trade.
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- Big picture
I used TradingView's INDEX chart to check the entire range of BTC.
(BTCUSD 12M chart)
Looking at the big picture, it seems to have been following a pattern since 2015.
In other words, it is a pattern that maintains a 3-year bull market and faces a 1-year bear market.
Accordingly, the bull market is expected to continue until 2025.
-
(LOG chart)
Looking at the LOG chart, we can see that the increase is decreasing.
Accordingly, the 46K-48K range is expected to be a very important support and resistance range from a long-term perspective.
Therefore, we do not expect to see prices below 44K-48K in the future.
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The Fibonacci ratio on the left is the Fibonacci ratio of the uptrend that started in 2015.
That is, the Fibonacci ratio of the first wave of the uptrend.
The Fibonacci ratio on the right is the Fibonacci ratio of the uptrend that started in 2019.
Therefore, this Fibonacci ratio is expected to be used until 2026.
-
No matter what anyone says, the chart has already been created and is already moving.
It is up to you how to view and respond to it.
Since there is no support or resistance point when the ATH is updated, the Fibonacci ratio can be appropriately utilized.
However, although the Fibonacci ratio is useful for chart analysis, it is ambiguous to use it as a support and resistance role.
The reason is that the user must directly select the important selection points required to create the Fibonacci.
Therefore, it can be useful for chart analysis because it is expressed differently depending on how the user specifies the selection point, but it can be seen as ambiguous for use in trading strategies.
1st: 44234.54
2nd: 61383.23
3rd: 89126.41
101875.70-106275.10 (when overshooting)
4th: 134018.28
151166.97-157451.83 (when overshooting)
5th: 178910.15
-----------------
Cycle Top Indicator [CTI] | Deep Dive AnalysisIn this post we will look at some of the long-term trends identified with the tracking of the CTI indicator (Red and Green Moving averages in the price chart), and what we can learn from the observed behaviors over Cycle 1 / 2 / 3 and possible implications for Cycle 4.
INDICATOR RECAP
The CTI indicator attempts to model the cycle top based on observed historic price over extension from Cycle 1 / 2. Indicator marks a cycle top when the 'Fast MA' (Red Line) crosses above the 'Slow MA' (Green Line). I.e. the condition where both MAs price value is equal. I should be noted that this condition was achieve for every cycle to date so far, and that the condition was met twice for the experienced 'double peak top' in Cycle 1 but was only met for the first of the two peak tops during Cycle 3.
OSCILLATOR: % DISTANCE MODELLED BETWEEN SLOW (GREEN MA) & FAST (RED MA) – NORMALISED TO PRICE
The below oscillator models the %Distance away from each other the Green Line and the Red line gets over BTC's cycles (Normalised to Price).
* RED HORIZONTAL LINE: When the oscillator is equal to 1, this models the price value of the Green and Red moving averages as equal (or the CTI cycle top condition)
* ORANGE HORIZONTAL LINE(s): These mark the maximum over extension the Red MA exceeded the Green MA during a cycle top condition.
* GREEN HORIZONTAL LINE(s): These mark low levels of the oscillator, indicator maximum distance of the Red MA below the Green MA during each cycle.
BLACK SLOPING TREND LINE(s): Represent the diminishing trend of overlap between the Green and Red Mas each cycle.
* VERTICAL RED AND GREEN LINES: Show cycle tops and bottoms as triggered by the CTI and CBI (Cycle Bottom Indicators) – NOTE: CBI moving averages not shown.
SIGNIFICANCE OF ORANGE HORIZONTAL & BLACK TREND LINES
It is observable that each peak of the Oscillator is lower than the previous cycle peak (each peak is marked with an Orange horizontal line). This diminishing trend is shown with each orange line marked lower than the line before, and modeled with the Black downward sloping trend line(s) connecting the peaks.
A reminder that the Red Horizontal line shows the condition with the CTI models the cycle top and conditions above the Red Horizontal line show the % distance the Red MA reaches above the Green MA each cycle. For example:
* Cycle 1 Peak = 1.58
* Cycle 2 First peak = 1.25
* Cycle 2 Second peak = 1.20
* Cycle 3 First peak = 1.07
The diminishing trend of this relationship over each cycle (if historic behavior continues) suggest that the CTI overlap condition for cycle 4 my not eventuate. This would be modeled by our oscillator not exceeding the red line in Cycle 4.
The learnings for this analysis could suggest that waiting for the CTI indicator to Fire may result in a non-event for Cycle 4.
SIGNIFICANCE OF GREEN HORIZONTAL LINES
A surprising finding from this analysis show for all cycles to date that when the modeled oscillator reaches levels between -1.11 and -1.82 and particularly for Cycles 2 / 3 & 4 between -1.50 & -1.82 (Red MA % distance below the Grean MA), Historically BTC has found its cycle bottom. These findings are summarized below for quick reference.
* CYCLE 1-4 Bottom Oscillator Condition: -1.11 <> -1.82
* CYCLE 2-4 Bottom Oscillator Condition: -1.50 <> -1.82
Feel free to include any other observations I may have missed in the comments below. i intend to do a similar analysis for the CBI indicator when I find the time.
PepsiCo Limps at Key SupportPepsiCo has struggled all year, and some traders may think the food-and-beverage giant is breaking down.
The first pattern on today’s chart is the October 2023 low of $155.83. PEP bounced at the level in November and is now revisiting it. Is support giving way?
Next, the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) recently crossed below the 100- and 200-day SMAs. The 100-day SMA is also below the 200-day SMA. That pattern (faster SMAs below slower SMAs) may be consistent with a longer-term downtrend.
Third, MACD is falling.
Finally, lower highs over the last three quarters may be consistent with bearish sentiment.
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My McClellan Oscillator Graph - Up or Down in the Markets?This is a huge factor to watch, something to consider, Santa Claus Rally expected, or not?
I have had many financial analysts for decades always point out this chart when the markets seem toppy or indecisive.
The Dow has closed 9 days in a row, first time since the 70s, that's quite interesting, let's watch to see if the theory behind this indicator proves we are in for a rally as I expect.
The markets always tend to go higher more than one might think.
Room for growth, when in doubt purchase a company with potentialWhen fleet services starting to make a large dent in how we handle our logistics, companies like this actually have a big potential to do well. Intelligent companies will offer solutions that benefit the long-term growth of their particular business, which means smart purchasing will be key. Delivery services will be the largest growth factor of the future. Keep an eye on the financials.
ILP can be traded for 60% potential gainsILP trade can be entered into at a price above 85.5 with a SL of 60.5
First TP will be 110.5 while second TP would be 135.5, Final Projection of the Bullish pennant around is Rs. 140, a good company with solid capital potential on the cards.
PAEL can double your savings within 2-3 yearsThe stock after 5 years of making its historical high has finally broke out its last LH which is 37.6.
If the Dec'24 closing of the stock is above 37.6, then it can give you 2.5-3x returns i.e. triple your earnings within next 2-3 years.
TP1 is 40% above the current price, TP2 is approximately 53% higher than the current price
TP3 will provide you over 100% returns and this can be achieved within 1 year.
This trade is for Investors who can hold the investments for atleast 2-3 years.
