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Optionsstrategies

GOLD --> The Downtrend Persists. What’s the Next Target?Dear Friends, Gold has seen a modest rise amidst a broader bearish trend, currently trading around $2,617, up 1.27% on the day. This slight uptick can be attributed to sellers pausing their pressure, coupled with the fundamental appeal of gold increasing. As the opportunity cost of holding the non-yielding precious metal decreases due to lower interest rates, gold becomes more attractive. However, the Federal Reserve's cautious outlook on rate cuts—suggesting smaller reductions than expected next year—could weigh on gold's upward momentum. Additionally, US Treasury yields edged higher on December 18, with the 10-year yield reaching its highest level since May. Treasuries, often considered a direct competitor to gold due to their interest-bearing nature, could diminish gold's appeal if yields continue to rise. Ben personally advises waiting for a decisive candle close below the 2636 liquidity zone before taking further advantage of the market trend.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Bentradegold
GOLD - Should I sell?Brian, hello everyone! Gold prices “plunged” and fell more than 2% to a one-month low in mid-week trading after the Fed decided to cut interest rates as expected, but noted that it would slow the pace of borrowing cost reductions in the near term. The Fed’s stance boosted the USD and bond yields. Based on the performance of gold on the 4-hour time frame, along with indicators from EMA and RSI, a bearish trend is expected in the coming period. With the current unfavorable situation for gold, the price of gold is likely to reach $2,537 in the near future.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Trader-Briannnn
GBPUSD - continue its downward trendDear Investors, The GBP/USD pair has rebounded after losing over 1% following the Federal Reserve's aggressive rate cut on Wednesday, currently trading around 1.2590 during Thursday's Asian session. From a technical perspective, this recovery is likely to be short-lived, stemming from the strong support zone at 1.2567, rather than signaling a sustained rebound. Sellers could easily regain control, especially after breaking below the key level of 1.2645. Moreover, the 34-period EMA shows no signs of a significant reversal, suggesting the price might accelerate towards the next support level at 1.2486. Attention remains on the immediate resistance at 1.2615, as any failure to hold this level could lead to an earlier-than-expected decline. Stay alert and plan accordingly!
Short
by Trader-Briannnn
BTCUSDT: Consolidating below key resistance. What next?Hello, dear friends! BTC/USDT is currently on a bearish trajectory, with the price hovering around $101,200. This decline follows comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell opposing the establishment of a national bitcoin reserve fund. From a theoretical perspective, the outlook suggests further downside potential, as the price is currently near critical resistance levels around the 0.618 and 0.5 Fibonacci retracements, while the descending trendline remains intact. It is anticipated that the decline could extend to the designated support zones. Wishing you all profitable trades ahead!
Short
by Trader-Briannnn
Options Indicator Explained - so you can SEE what you tradeEver since we created this indicator back around 2020 on the TradingView platform it is so far the best platform for our analysis, research, coding, and development of different trading tools. This was 4 years ago, but we have been with TradingView almost for a decade ! The whole concept of this indicator came when a long time ago we read the big big book of options, and could not understand how come the stock price moved up but our calls are losing money ! Yes, we have been there too. And then came this indicator to life. We don't make a trade without it ever since. If you saw the video, you clearly know why. Let's delve into some key concepts that can elevate your trading game: ### 1. Visualizing Profit and Loss One of the most powerful tools in an options trader's arsenal is the ability to plot profit and loss lines on a chart. This visualization helps you understand the time decay of the options you buy or sell. By seeing how your potential profits or losses change over time, you can make more informed decisions about when to enter or exit trades. ### 2. Moving Beyond the Greeks The Greeks—Delta, Gamma, Theta, and Vega—are often emphasized in options trading, but their standalone value can be limited. What truly matters is how these metrics impact your profit and loss curvature. Think of it like driving a car: while an acceleration meter provides some information, what you really need is the speedometer and a clear view of the road. Focusing on the profit and loss curves allows you to grasp the real impact of these factors on your trades. ### 3. Identifying Pivot Points By observing profit and loss lines, you gain insights into optimal entry and exit points. Placing trades at pivot points can enhance your reward-to-risk ratios. Certain options offer generous room for stop-loss placement and quick profits if you choose pivot points where price rejections are likely. Seeing these lines helps confirm that your trading idea has a high probability of success. ### 4. Conducting Volatility Simulations Professional volatility testing with your indicator is crucial. It allows you to anticipate how changes in volatility will affect your options' profit and loss. Each case is unique and dependent on the underlying stock, so it's vital to have contingency plans and avoid trading blindly. You must always take into account that the volatility can drop or rise against you, and you need to see that even if it happens, you will still be okay, and not be a dreamer. Reality is everything, trade realistically. ### 5. Timing Your Trades Boost your performance by understanding how much profit you can lose (when buying options) or gain (when selling options) over the duration of your trade. This knowledge helps you make better timing decisions and manage your trades more effectively while you are inside the trade. In some trades you can clearly see that you just don't have the time to survive a correction and then wait for the next pulse wave to come and save you, you can see clearly that it is better to take profit today, since you just do not have enough time for a correction and a bounce back to the current profitable price. In options, what it is profitable today is NOT profitable tomorrow. I show you this in the video. ### 6. Simplifying with Profit Lines You don't need to rely heavily on the Greeks anymore. Profit lines already account for these metrics, freeing your mind to focus on price action. This approach eliminates the confusion often associated with the non-linear behavior of options, rooted in complex models like Black-Scholes. ### 7. The Black-Scholes Model and Implied Volatility Understanding the Black-Scholes model and implied volatility is fundamental. These concepts help you grasp how options are priced and how market conditions can impact their value. Using the indicator, you don't need even to know who or what is the Black-Scholes Model, since it does all the work and heavy lifting for you, by plotting you exactly what you truly need... Where you make a profit, where you will make a loss, and how much (profit lines). ### 8. In the Money vs. Out of the Money Knowing the difference between "in the money" and "out of the money" options is crucial. In-the-money options have intrinsic value, while out-of-the-money options are more speculative and rely on price movements to become profitable. ### 9. Short-Term vs. Long-Term Options Short-term call options offer quick potential gains but come with higher risks due to time decay. Long-term call options, on the other hand, provide more time for your trade to work out, reducing the impact of time decay but often requiring a larger capital investment. I show a clear example in the video. ### 10. Maintaining Reward-to-Risk Ratios You should make sure you always maintain the reward-to-risk ratios in your favor BEFORE you enter the trade, this is what keeps you in the game and makes you thrive and not just survive. Do you think they let a pilot to land an airplane, just with his "gut feeling" or do they give them an indicator to SEE the runway? If you don't see your profit and loss lines, you don't see the runway when you land your plane. We've all seen those wallstreetbets BLIND crash landings in options and know how they end before they started. This can and should be avoided, always know your risk, and your potential reward. ### 11. Proof of Accuracy Finally, reliable indicators provide proof of accuracy, showing you the same profit or loss you'd experience given stock movements and implied volatility changes. This consistency gives you confidence in your trades, eliminating confusion and preventing unexpected losses. In the end of the video, there is proof of the accuracy, that the indicator in did shows you the same profit or loss you will have in the position, given the stock movement and implied volatility changes, so you can rest assured that your landing indicator will not surprise you no matter the weather, you will have full control on your options trade. No more the feeling of confusion and then your fast profit crushes to zero or even a loss and you don't know why. Master these concepts, and you'll have a robust framework for navigating the complexities of options trading with precision and confidence.
NASDAQ:TSLAEducation
by ZoharCho
XAUUSD: Double Top PatternHello everyone! Currently, after a false breakout at the key level of $2721, the price has quickly reverted to a bearish trend. This development bears significant resemblance to the double top pattern, a technical formation that often signals an impending downtrend. Given the current situation, the outlook leans in favor of the bears. If this scenario materializes, we can expect the price to continue moving towards lower support zones. To project potential downside targets, we are utilizing the Fibonacci extension tool, a powerful method for analyzing price momentum. Based on our calculations, two critical levels to watch are $2609 and $2557. These are areas where buying pressure may emerge, potentially testing the trend's continuation. Stay tuned for further updates to fine-tune your trading strategies!
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Trader-Briannnn
USDJPY Continues Consolidation Above Key Support!Dear Friends! USD/JPY is trading sideways around 154.00 during the Asian session on Tuesday. The pair was weighed down by Japanese comments and a softer risk-on tone. However, a fresh rally in the US Dollar limited the pair's losses ahead of the US November Retail Sales report. From a technical point of view, USDJPY remains in an uptrend with the trendline, EMAs and price channel still favoring buyers. In the short term, keep an eye on the upper limit of the channel, which could provide fresh upside momentum for USDJPY. Wishing you happy and profitable trading.
Long
by Trader-Briannnn
How to PROTECT your profits while letting them runIn the trading business you need to let your profits run while also managing your risks that means to cut your losses short. Losses of unrealized profits are real profits that are lost. What if you could save them? Well, there is a way... It is not always available but it is one you want to know since if you can save 3 points of wiggle room and pay 1 point or less, over the long run it adds up to HUGE chunk of profit to your bottom line. The reason I applied this method is because TSLA was doing 3 days in a row a push and gap up, so it seems likely people will want to take profits... but this is TSLA... it can shoot up above 500 and reach who knows where... (she did it before...). So I want to TAKE MY HUGE profit, while giving it the option to continue to the moon, if it will want to do so... You can never take the very top anyway, so if you "give back" 1 point of profit it is considered reasonable, but if in case the price falls down sharply or gapped down I can give back maybe 3 points with this strength of volatility, which is undesireable. So what I did? I sold the PUT option at strike 470 at a price of $15 (my point was $17) so for me it is even less than a point so it is very attractive deal to me... Then... if the price had crushed down it meant for me that I sold my stocks at a price of 470 while paying the hedge cost of the PUT option of 15 so it is equivalent to me that I sold my stock at a price of 455, which is ALMOST the top. Making sure ~90% of the profit stays in my pocket. So I WIN. If the price would continue to shoot up, then I making SUPER HUGE MONEY, while sleeping like a baby, that I already realized my HUGE profit. So I WIN. So either way, I WIN ! Since the price did not crushed the next day and hold, and my stop loss advanced, so there was no longer need to my PUT option hedge since if price will fall I will get out with the stop loss with the same profit. So I sold the PUT hedge for a small loss, so the hedge cost me 0.25 a point overall. SUPER WORTH IT ! FYI, this comes from years of experience, but I give you some of my experience, you could do it too. The moral of the story... when you have HUGE profit, and you feel itchy to take profit, don't ! and try to hedge yourself with options ! this way, if you were wrong and you have GME, AMC on your hand, you don't let them go, and you WIN either way ! Sleeping like a baby.
NASDAQ:TSLAEducation
by ZoharCho
2
Prediction of EURUSD price decrease in the near future?Dear Traders, The EUR/USD pair is currently hovering around the 1.0378 mark, extending its bearish momentum for several consecutive days. This persistent decline has been largely driven by the Federal Reserve’s hawkish rate cuts, which have bolstered the US dollar and exerted downward pressure on this major currency pair. Analyzing the 4-hour chart, it’s evident that the pair remains below the 34-period EMA, signaling that the bearish trend is far from over. After failing to sustain the upward momentum near the 1.0450 level, the price resumed its descent, reinforcing the dominance of sellers in the market. Given these factors, my personal analysis suggests that the downtrend is likely to accelerate in the near term. Any potential corrective pullbacks, in this context, could present strategic opportunities for sellers to re-enter the market. What’s your perspective on this outlook? Share your thoughts in the comments below—I’d love to hear your take!
Short
by Trader-Briannnn
GOLD -- Fell below 2650 with negative fundamental driversOANDA:XAUUSD continued its downward trajectory, dipping to $2,648, underpinned by adverse fundamental drivers. The key question now is whether a retracement is on the horizon or if the decline will deepen further. Optimism about Chinese stimulus faded due to growing concerns over the U.S.-China trade war. In a closed report, the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) stated that China has begun retaliating against President-elect Donald Trump’s upcoming tariffs by implementing non-tariff measures. The market now believes that the Fed might send a hawkish signal by indicating a pause in January after the anticipated 25 basis points (bps) rate cut at the December 17-18 policy meeting, especially following the release of higher-than-expected U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) data. Technically, gold remains confined within its current channel, with the consolidation phase still intact. The primary focus lies on the key support zone between 2636 and 2634, below which a large liquidity cluster could serve as a potential target for prices. The 2636 support level could trigger a retracement, depending on forthcoming market developments. If the retracement appears shallow and prices quickly return to this level, the likelihood of a break below support increases, potentially driving prices down to levels like 2612 and 2580. However, if gold can stabilize above 2682 and consolidate above local highs, it could pave the way for a retest of higher levels. Regards Bentradegold!
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Bentradegold
Gold --> Bear Market Intensifies, Key Resistance LoomsHello, dear friends! This is Ben. Gold prices rose after a false breakout at 2,650. Fundamentally, the situation remains complex, and technically... The metal's price is being influenced by geopolitical tensions, weaker U.S. bond yields, and a softer USD, which supports the safe-haven appeal of XAU/USD. However, bets on a less dovish Fed warrant caution for bullish markets ahead of this week's FOMC meeting. Theoretically, additional gold price gains could be limited by concerns about China's economy after its industrial production posted a modest rise in November, while retail sales disappointed. Widening gold discounts in India amid subdued wedding season demand due to higher prices may also act as a drag on the metal. China and India remain the largest gold consumers globally. Looking ahead, U.S. PMI data also warrants attention for fresh insights into the Fed's rate trajectory next year, which could heavily influence gold prices—given gold's sensitivity to the USD. From a technical perspective, gold is attempting to break out of a major range, testing critical support. Since the opening of the session, the price has increased quite strongly, which increases the possibility of resistance to stop this increase. If there is a false breakout around the 2,655 level, a minor correction toward resistance could form. However, with prices testing strong support, we may witness a false breakout followed by a corrective move to the 2,660–2,675 region (0.618 Fib retracement) before resuming the downtrend. Rate, share your opinion and questions, let's discuss what's going on with.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Bentradegold
2
EUR/USD → Consolidates Ahead of Key Fed Interest Rate DecisionHello everyone, Ben here! EUR/USD saw a sluggish upward movement on Monday, drifting towards the upper bounds of its short-term consolidation range just north of 1.0500, though lacking any significant conviction. With relatively limited European data this week, Fiber traders are bracing for a heavy U.S. data docket. In the short term, the trend remains neutral, but prices are consolidating near a critical support level that has held firm for two years. Aggressive rate cuts in Europe are putting pressure on the pair, with expectations set for December 17th-18th. The Fed is widely anticipated to cut the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points (bps). However, any hawkish signals from the Fed aimed at taming inflation would increase the downside potential for EUR/USD. Support levels: 1.045, 1.033 Resistance levels: 1.060, 1.065 From an interest rate perspective, within the context of a broader downtrend, price has yet to reach the key liquidity zone. Ahead of the news, I anticipate that the price will climb towards 1.060. However, based on both technical and fundamental outlooks, bearish momentum is expected to resume, and a break below the 1.045 support level will solidify the downward trend. Best regards, Bentradegold!
Short
by Bentradegold
GOLD --> Correction Before Potential Further DeclineOANDA:XAUUSD transitioning to a Correction Phase After Last Week's Economic Data. Market participants are generally confirming the bearish nature after returning to the channel. The market is broadly prepared for a 25% rate cut, but traders seem cautious about hints regarding the Fed's stance: whether the Fed will cut interest rates, shift to a wait-and-see approach, or imply a rate hike based on last week's economic data. Traders are eagerly awaiting the Fed's decision, which will be announced on December 18. Gold prices continue to be supported by safe-haven demand amidst ongoing geopolitical risks. Additionally, China's continued gold purchases are providing further momentum for this precious metal. Technically, after a false breakout at the 2721 level, a deep correction is forming, which typically develops into a local downward trend. Prices are approaching the panic zone of 2615-2600. During the Asian trading session, gold maintained its earlier recovery above $2650 as buyers still held control amidst the persistently weak US dollar and sluggish US Treasury yields, with attention on key resistance levels. Prices are heading toward the imbalance zone in the correction process. A swift approach and retest of resistance could trigger a recovery. Traders may enter the profit-taking phase before major news releases. Best regards, Bentradegold!
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Bentradegold
2
Gold: Short-Term Fluctuations, Long-Term TriumphsAs a market analyst, I observe that global gold prices currently stand at $2,647 per ounce, with February 2025 gold futures on the Comex New York exchange priced at $2,675 per ounce, reflecting a 0.03% increase from the previous day. Over the past week, gold has shown a solid 0.8% gain. From my perspective, gold has had a remarkable year, and while it is now undergoing a phase of correction, I firmly believe this pullback will not last long. My analysis suggests that gold prices will rise further in the coming months. This outlook is supported by several key factors, including loose monetary policies, strong central bank buying activity, and growing demand for safe-haven assets, all of which are likely to drive gold to new record highs this year. I’m also closely following comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell after each meeting, as these are crucial for shaping investor expectations for 2025. Inflation remains a pressing issue, still falling short of the Fed’s 2% target. According to Nicky Shiels, a metals strategist at MKS PAMP SA, gold prices could reach $2,500 per ounce, or even as high as $3,000 per ounce, depending on how effectively the Fed manages inflation. In the short term, my projection is that gold will trade within a range of $2,647 to $2,760 per ounce. For the longer term, I align with Goldman Sachs' forecast that gold could achieve $3,000 per ounce by the end of 2025. This aligns with the broader trends I’m observing, where persistent economic uncertainties and evolving monetary policies continue to shape a favorable environment for gold.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Trader-Briannnn
GOLD → The FED Rate Decision Ahead: What Should You Do?Dear Traders, Gold (XAUUSD) has made a notable move, successfully testing the strong support level at 2633 before traders shifted into buying mode. As a result, the price broke above 2643, sparking new optimism as upcoming discussions around potential rate cuts from the Federal Reserve (FED) take center stage. Currently, there is a 93% probability that the FED will cut rates by 25 basis points. However, the overarching theme is the FED's stance for the future. Hawkish hints regarding 2025 could influence the rate-cutting trajectory, an aspect the market has only partially priced in. This means any indication of a smaller rate cut could fuel strength for the U.S. dollar. Conversely, a deeper cut could act as a bullish catalyst for gold. The spotlight is firmly on FED Chair Jerome Powell's comments, as they will provide crucial insights into the economic outlook for 2024 amidst the backdrop of Trump-era policies that continue to play a pivotal role. That said, downside risks for gold remain elevated, particularly if the FED maintains a hawkish stance in the current climate. Technical Analysis: At the moment, gold prices are consolidating within the range of 2658 - 2633, with a breakout in either direction likely to bring about a strong momentum-driven move. The market is complex and highly volatile right now, which is why traders are advised to hold off on entering positions before the event. Waiting for volatility to subside can offer better clarity on market direction and safer opportunities. Final Advice: Patience is key in such turbulent times. Avoid getting swayed by short-term noise and focus on acting only after a clear trend emerges following the major event.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Bentradegold
Opening (IRA): XBI February 21st 85 Covered Call... for an 83.01 debit. Comments: Adding at strikes/break evens better than what I currently have on, selling the -75 delta call against shares to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with the built-in defense of the short call. Metrics: Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 83.01/share Max Profit: 1.99 ROC at Max: 2.40% 50% Max: 1.00 ROC at 50% Max: 1.20% Will generally look to take profit at 50% max, roll out short call on take profit point test.
AMEX:XBILong
by NaughtyPines
Opening (IRA): IBIT February 21st 50 Covered Call... for a 47.07 debit. Comments: High IVR/IV (88.4/68.6) + weakness post-FOMC. Going out to February, as there are only 30 DTE left in January, selling the -75 delta call against shares to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with the built-in defense of the short call. Looking at this as a "starter" position, so will look to add at intervals, assuming I can get in at strikes/break evens better than what I currently have on. Metrics: Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 47.07/share Max Profit: 2.93 ROC at Max: 6.22% 50% Max: 1.47 ROC at 50% Max: 3.11% Will generally look to take profit at 50% max, roll out short call on take profit point test.
NASDAQ:IBITLong
by NaughtyPines
2