Options-strategy
ATVI Bearish inclined Naked Calls 29 Oct Expiry (Oct Track 1)I just realised I forgot to enter this trade. My thoughts below was written 28 Sep
Whats The Plan/Trade/Thought
Forced, Because I need to hit the 5% target
I don't have much options, this feels risky. I need to spend time coming up with proper ideas.
I feel lazy and that I need to be serious since I am doing this full time
ATVI looking at it as it is going down. There is a recent pull back but it is still bearish.
ATVI has been moving the opposite of the Index or the VXX. It was also impacted by Evergrande's drop. But only recovered slightly with the market bounced
If anything I see ATVI ranging near term
Imagine Yourself Taking The Other Side
Do I need this trade? Since you feel it is forced and that you did not put in effort
What if it rebounds up? Their last earnings was higher than the estimates
Christmas is coming, this can boast interest in the stock
Imagine Yourself As A Neutral Observer
The Other Side, also feels convinced that ATVI is bearish
The key issue feels like no prep was done and it is a forced trade. I am not being professional
Other Competitors in this space like EA have similar down trends (Feels like a sector drop)
Look For New Information
Recently ATVI has negative news on the workplace culture and discrimination
How Do I Feel Now
This is not a company that will fail entirely near term due to it's strong gaming titles that has a strong following.
This is probably the last time I can/should trade this bearish move
Trade Specs
Sold 80 CALLS @ 0.50 Strike 84
% to Strike is 8.9%
ATR % is slightly on the high side at 60%
Max Gain: est $4000
ATH next move?Massive run on this name,
ER tomorrow, so not sure what is going to come out of this.
However, nice flag above 89.00 should trigger a new run to ATH
Contracting IVR and Channel formation The start of September IVR picked up and we can see a series of red candles within that same time range. Now as IVR settles back down to its stable range then there should be less dramatic movement in the stock price.
Should price continue within the current range then being able to play with price between the two values would be a manageable trade with appropriate trade execution.
BABA descending channel - Jan 1 thoughtslooking at Fib retracement along the channel trying to gauge a reasonable scenario.
A $130 target for Jan 1 is well within the existing data trend. Looking at options for early Feb in that range.
One caveat is that our last two months are typically big for online retailers, which may buoy BABA a bit.
$ABNB will be $181.00 by Dec 2nd -Fib flag formation So I did two fib growth pitchforks..
—one mod schiff Bearish and one original recipe bullish, and that’s an obvious flag formation, double major resistance at $180 to $182
If I was a betting man I would bet a debit call spread with the short call 60+ days out 12/15/21 on the top end w a $190 strike..
-and a slightly out of the money call January 2022 at $175 strike.. Cha Ching!
UPS Long: Option PlayBroke ATH, good entry on close over 217.5.
Using A call debit spread, because profits are always limited by time.
Call Debit Spread
Levels on Chart
SL < 217.5
*Stops based off underlying stock price, not mark to market loss
The Trade
BUY
11/12 220C
SELL
11/12 235C
R/R & Breakevens vary on fill.
The long call is placed ATM for higher chance of profit,
The short call is placed 3 standard deviations away.
Manage Risk
Only invest what you are willing to lose
EverlongI'm always bullish on SPY. It's an ETF designed to always gain value.
Knowing this information I like to play strategies that involve exploiting dips. Currently on the 1HR chart we're seeing that it might break the downward pattern.
It is visually represented by the green ascending cloud and then a red cloud on the dip. The VIX is a little higher this morning but ideally I like it over 23 to Sell Credit Spreads.
If the market is neutral I might do a Calendar Spread. If it dips I buy the Sold Call back for a profit and then keep the LEAP until profit target is reached.
Godspeed Traders!
Nasdaq, 28 SEP - Elliott waves | Gann | Planetary Aspects $QQQAs expected a wave C is currently unfolding which gave us a nice profit.
Price approaches the 14766 Gann level so that we may look for potential (temporary) support. Wave C is still short but since we have a lower low, it fulfils the criteria for completion, and we can look to reduce exposure to be on the safe side. It is also possible to count 5 waves down (green count), however this count can extend if wave C continues to progress.
Should Nasdaq drop further, the next levels of support might be:
- 14524 Gann level & wave A-C equality
- Gann level 14284
- Gann level 14046 & 1.618 Fib extension of wave A.
Implied Volatility is high after today’s sharp drop. Selling option premium with wide strikes can be profitable should the decline slow down from here.
Correlations: DXY stalled today in a potential resistance zone. If USD cools off it will help the yield-sensitive tech sector to find temporary support zones.
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These abbreviations in the chart are ideas provided as educational information and do not constitute financial advice:
STO = sell to open
BTC = buy to close
BTO = buy to open
STC = sell to close
Disclaimer:
The views and ideas expressed in this analysis are that of the maker. They are provided as educational information and do not constitute financial or trading advice.
$NKE Looking oversoldI like the idea of the 145/140P credit spread here. $1.45 credit for the 11/19 opex
30-45 days or more until expiration would capture the most premium vs. theta decay (sweet spot per Tasty Trades).
You could go long naked : ) higher risk idea . I don't have conviction on how high and quickly Nike will rebound so I like the spread trade idea here
ATVI Bearish inclined Naked Calls 24 Sep Expiry (Sep Track 1)This is Track 1, Trade 2 of the September trades. This trade follow the following theme that I have crafted.
Industries that performed too well in 2020 (Market wise/product/service) might be unraveling because of their inability to keep up to the new or returning behavior shifts of people getting out of homes and back outdoors.
After spiking early in the year (Feb), Industries such as eGaming and eSports seem to range or trend downwards. They have generally not hit that previous high despite good earning reports.
I would be more comfortable selling into an ETF. But all the eGaming and eSports ETFs have terrible prices now.
Sold 110 Puts @ 0.50 Strike 91
% to Strike is 10% from entry
ATR percentile is high so this is good
Rising RSI , so this could be an issue
Max Gain: est $5500
Total BP Block: 95K
XRT ETF Bullish inclined Naked Puts 24 Sep Expiry (Sep Track 1)This is Track 1, Trade 1 of the September trades. This trade generally follows the larger market bullish move as it seems like Retail is taking the Delta virus and inflation news on its stride.
There will be price drops if those concerns surface again, but from what I've noticed, its all very short term. We also see retail hiring more aggressively and in the short term this means that business owners are somewhat optimistic and ready to get their business rolling full swing.
Sold 25 Puts @ 0.50 Strike 85
% to Strike is 11% from entry
ATR percentile is a middle, so this could be improved.
Rising RSI , tied to an uptrend of lower highs
Max Gain: est $1250
Total BP Block: 28K
JETS ETF Bullish inclined Naked Puts 10 Sep Expiry (Sep Track 2)This is the first month I'm breaking up my trades into 2 tracks to spread risk and provide myself with more room to navigate depending on the market situation.
I'm back bullish in JETS as it seems like the US is taking the virus in it's stride, even with Delta cases rising fast. Any virus precautions and restrictions while limiting are not new to business owners or consumers. Leisure and hospitality as an industry is opening up fast, Increasing pay and benefits to lure people back.
As more people get vaccinated and business returns, I think we should experience a jolt of green in this sector.
Sold 250 Puts @ 0.21 Strike 20
% to Strike is 13% from entry
ATR percentile is a high so I think we are at a pretty decent price
Rising RSI, tied to an uptrend of lower highs
Total BP Block: 50K