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Epidemic is fading & expanding, the Germany recessionThe basic news background is still unchanged: the number of new cases in China is decreasing (+/-500 per day), that is, the epidemic is decreasing. But this is offset by an increase in the number of cases outside of China. And an epidemic from local is increasingly striving to become global. Lockdown in Northern Italy, panic in Iran, growth in the number of cases in South Korea (already under 1000), lower forecasts for financial results from leading companies - all this puts pressure on risky assets, the outcome of which continues. Experts continue to voice new estimates of the damage caused by the epidemic to the global economy. For example, at Oxford Economics Ltd. voiced a specific damage figure: minus $1 trillion of global GDP. Recall that the damage includes direct losses from the downtime of the Chinese economy, losses in tourism and entertainment, as well as in the destruction of global supply chains, a decrease in global trade and investment. At the same time, news about the development of an effective vaccine (the release is scheduled for April), as well as about the desire to allocate about $ 2.5 billion to the Trump administration to fight the epidemic and develop a vaccine, helped to temporarily defuse the situation, which made it possible yesterday to buy gold at great prices. In general, the tactics of buying gold on the slopes proved to be quite effective. So today we will continue to use it, especially since yesterday gave clear price guidelines - where the price might go. Macroeconomic statistics naturally continue to remain in the shadow of news about the epidemic. Nevertheless, we continue to monitor the state of the global economy. Germany reported yesterday on GDP growth rates in the fourth quarter of 2019. Growth turns up zero. Thus, the recession in the leading Eurozone economy was delayed for 3 months. But it looks almost inevitable. Saudi Arabia, meanwhile, pretty upset buyers in the oil market. The point is that OPEC+ was never able to agree on anything. Against the background of expectations of a decrease in oil demand in the world, the news looks like a bearish signal. Recall that we recommend looking for points for oil sales - the fundamental background is so far extremely negative. Well, do not forget to sell euros on growth, as, for example, this could be done yesterday. The economic situation in the Eurozone looks extremely unsightly, and the visit of the coronavirus to Italy (over 200 patients) makes the sale of the euro, in our opinion, an almost risk-free transaction. Our basic positions today are unchanged: we are looking for points for buying gold (but we are careful - we buy on the slopes with mandatory stops), we sell oil, we sell EURUSD, we buy GBPUSD, we sell USDJPY with small stops.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by Trade24Fx
2
WTI: just some infosHi Guys, Please add your comments and if you have any questions please do not hesitate to ask. Thank you for your support and for sharing your ideas. Disclaimer: Please note that I am not a professional trader and these are my personal ideas only. The information contained in this presentation is solely for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice. The risk of trading in securities markets can be substantial. You should carefully consider if engaging in such activity is suitable to your own financial situation. Cozzamara is not responsible for any liabilities arising from the result of your market involvement or individual trade activities. IMHO: The point of trading is to make money. To make money you must have money. Depending on the money at your disposal, you can decide what to do and how to do it. By having stops you decide how much you are willing to lose. By having targets you decide how much you want to earn. Be disciplined with your protocol and with your strategies for trading. Sometime you win, sometime you lose. Don't be greedy. Be realistic. Be wary but not afraid. Be curious. Use your brain. As long as your working process make sense and your spirit is calm, everything will be fine. Be patient and be prepared for any circumtances.
FX:USOIL
by cozzamara
WTI: impact of coronavirusHi Guys, A nice double bottom at 49.31 and a prolonged divergence with RSI generated a pullback into the descending 100SMA (red). Last Thursday WTI finally reacted to the divergence with RSI as investors focused on the possibility of deeper supply cuts from OPEC. Is the worst over? What are the scenarios? Will price continue to pullback slowly or with a V-Shape recovery? Or will it drop further because of the impact of coronavirus? OPEC meeting is scheduled for March 5. In view of this I'd expect price to move on SMAs as it did back in October (violet circle). Just for info please click & play the following idea on WTI posted on Feb 7 (a week ago): Please add your comments and if you have any questions please do not hesitate to ask. Thank you for your support and for sharing your ideas. Disclaimer: Please note that I am not a professional trader and these are my personal ideas only. The information contained in this presentation is solely for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice. The risk of trading in securities markets can be substantial. You should carefully consider if engaging in such activity is suitable to your own financial situation. Cozzamara is not responsible for any liabilities arising from the result of your market involvement or individual trade activities. IMHO: The point of trading is to make money. To make money you must have money. Depending on the money at your disposal, you can decide what to do and how to do it. By having stops you decide how much you are willing to lose. By having targets you decide how much you want to earn. Be disciplined with your protocol and with your strategies for trading. Sometime you win, sometime you lose. Don't be greedy. Be realistic. Be wary but not afraid. Be curious. Use your brain. As long as your working process make sense and your spirit is calm, everything will be fine. Be patient and be prepared for any circumtances.
FX:USOIL
by cozzamara
CADJPY Reversal Chart Pattern For Sure?!Risk appetite appears to have improved somewhat during the Asian session, and the Loonie has been the strongest among the comdoll bunch. This is likely because the commodity currency is having some strength after Canadian data and a pickup in crude oil as well. After all, there are speculations that the OPEC could consider an increase in output cuts or at least an extension of their agreement in order to prop prices up. On the flip side, the LYSH yen is losing ground to risk-on flows while also facing the possibility of a Q4 GDP contraction. With that, I’m looking at this inverted head and shoulders breakout on CAD/JPY, especially since the pair appears to be making a retest of the broken neckline. If you think that this reversal is about to gain friction from here, shorting in at market with a stop that’s enough to weather the pair’s average daily volatility 50.3 pips could be a good play.
by Anatta0
WTI: Oil traders store crude on tankers at sea. Again!Hi Guys, what happens when some of the world’s biggest oil traders seek to store crude on tankers at sea? The play is to seek to take advantage of the crash in crude prices and make a profit down the line. It happened in 2009 and in 2015 as reported by Reuters back then in this article: www.reuters.com Today Bloomberg reported that the same play is happening again. How will price unfold this time? If you have any questions or comment to add please do not hesitate to post it. Thank you for your support and for sharing your ideas. Disclaimer: Please note that I am not a professional trader and these are my personal ideas only. The information contained in this presentation is solely for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice. The risk of trading in securities markets can be substantial. You should carefully consider if engaging in such activity is suitable to your own financial situation. Cozzamara is not responsible for any liabilities arising from the result of your market involvement or individual trade activities. IMHO: The point of trading is to make money. To make money you must have money. Depending on the money at your disposal, you can decide what to do and how to do it. By having stops you decide how much you are willing to lose. By having targets you decide how much you want to earn. Be disciplined with your protocol and with your strategies for trading. Sometime you win, sometime you lose. Don't be greedy. Be realistic. Be wary but not afraid. Be curious. Use your brain. As long as your working process make sense and your spirit is calm, everything will be fine. Be patient and be prepared for any circumtances.
FX:USOIL
by cozzamara
7
Oil and world are in danger, a pound in anticipationTraditionally, we start the review with news about the coronavirus epidemic. Once again, we note that the matter is even on its scale - thousands of times more people die from ordinary flu, and hundreds of thousands of times more get sick each year. The point is the problems that this epidemic has on the global economy. A number of key industrial centers in China have been completely or partially idle for the third week. Each such day is further destruction of the global supply chain, and if there are still enough stocks in warehouses, then every day the risk of a shortage of materials to continue the activities of companies becomes higher, as well as the scale of losses. One of the main victims this week maybe oil. We wrote that last week OPEC+ was able to tentatively agree to reduce oil production by another 600K b/d. But yesterday information appeared that Russia could refuse this. And here, even in Libya, the warring parties are close to signing a peace treaty, which is fraught with the return of several hundred thousand barrels per day to the oil market. And all this is happening against the backdrop of a sharp drop in oil demand from China. Not surprisingly, some experts predict an oil drop of at least 10% in the foreseeable future. In general, oil sales this week remain our basic trading idea. Returning to the current figures on the scale of the epidemic, we note that the number of deaths is approaching 1,000, and the number of cases is close to 50,000. Once again, we recall that these are official statistics. The main mass of experts converges in opinion, that the figures are underestimated by several times to several tens of times. In connection with such a development of events, we cannot but recall our recommendation to sell the Russian ruble. The conditions for this are almost ideal, especially when you consider that the Central Bank of the Russian Federation lowered the rate again last week and plans to do this further in 2020. Today, in terms of macroeconomic statistics, it will be interesting primarily for the British pound. Data on GDP and industrial production can trigger a surge in volatility in pound pairs. Given that in recent days, the pound was already under strong downward pressure, weak data will almost certainly trigger a new wave of sales. But at the same time, good numbers can give a start for strengthening the pound - points for its purchases are very attractive. In general, today you can try news trading, with pending orders or enter after the news, playing back a fundamental positive or negative.
Long
by Trade24Fx
USOIL: closely monitoring..which direction going to go?Global uncertainty around coronavirus still present and oil price is pretty much under selling pressure.. ..according to the trend it seems logical to join bears if the price closes below the triangle chart pattern formed on 4h time-frame. However, if there will be any sign of positiveness regarding vaccine or OPEC members decide to cut the supply of oil the price should go up, so it's better to be prepared for joining bulls from a certain point. Enter/exit levels are on the chart, decent R:R in both cases. // Disclaimer: The published idea is my opinion, not investment advice. // Feel free to share your opinion/position via comment and follow me to stay updated + hit like button to support my work.)
FX:USOIL
by GIgor_021
Expecting Further WTI Selling PressureWTI and BRENT are taking heavy hits for some time now with the price dropping strongly on both mainly due to the Coronavirus, but more recently (Friday) due to the OPEC members not being ready to cut production. We expect based on basic technical analysis that price should be moving south, our TP and SL can be seen on the daily chart (on the right) while our trading tactic is done on the 4H and 1H ( 1H not seen in the image ) We will look to compound this sell trade at breaks and retests of key trading levels, such as supports which turn resistances or retests of the 13 EMA on 4H. A video follow up will come as a "related post" to this one explaining more details if you wish to see it make sure you give us a follow.
OANDA:WTICOUSDShort
by PrimedGroup
Oil: Divergence with RSIHi Guys, here below a clean snapshot of the 4H structure reporting the divergence with RSI. Has the impact of "nCoV2019" on Oil ended? The following chart was posted on Jan 28 when worries over "coronavirus" were high and was titled "Don't try to catch a falling knife". After almost two weeks, has Oil finally found a bottom at 49.31? iI don't know but if you have any questions or comment to add please do not hesitate to post it. Thank you for your support and for sharing your ideas. Disclaimer: Please note that I am not a professional trader and these are my personal ideas only. The information contained in this presentation is solely for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice. The risk of trading in securities markets can be substantial. You should carefully consider if engaging in such activity is suitable to your own financial situation. Cozzamara is not responsible for any liabilities arising from the result of your market involvement or individual trade activities. IMHO: The point of trading is to make money. To make money you must have money. Depending on the money at your disposal, you can decide what to do and how to do it. By having stops you decide how much you are willing to lose. By having targets you decide how much you want to earn. Be disciplined with your protocol and with your strategies for trading. Sometime you win, sometime you lose. Don't be greedy. Be realistic. Be wary but not afraid. Be curious. Use your brain. As long as your working process make sense and your spirit is calm, everything will be fine. Be patient and be prepared for any circumtances.
FX:USOIL
by cozzamara
The markets illogicality the and trading anomaliesTuesday was another recovery day in the financial markets. In general, all this is rather strange and illogical. Markets first fall on the news of coronavirus and the epidemic. Logically and explainable, we will not go into details, and once again build logical chains of consequences. We did this in previous reviews. But upon the receipt of news that the epidemic is developing and becoming the largest in the last 20 years (the number of deaths exceeded 400, and the cases of 20,000), markets begin to calm down instead of continuing to work out a fundamental negative. This can be seen from the dynamics of the stock markets (Nasdaq updated new historical highs, and Tesla shares seem to have forgotten what gravity and common sense are), gold is declining, risky assets are recovering, VIX Fear Index is falling by more than 10% in day, and the Chinese stock market is adding 1-2% per day. The main problem in this chaos is not to lose one’s head and not to succumb to general madness. Ultimately, you need to work not with current prices and their dynamics, but with facts. And the facts are that the epidemic has already caused enormous damage and will continue to cause it. Yes, the extent of the damage is unclear and perhaps it will be partially leveled in one way or another. But it is applied and this is a fact. So, starting from the facts, we consider current prices in the financial markets to be abnormal. Based on the concept of “regression to the average,” prices will sooner or later have to return to their moderately adequate state. Accordingly, today we will buy gold with redoubled energy and volumes (for less aggressive traders, we can recommend selling a pair of USDJPY - the points for sales are simply excellent). Stock market sales remain our No.1 trading idea. Oil sales (WTI benchmark) from 51.20 also seem to be a balanced transaction (stops above 51.20 with profits in the region of 45 or even lower make the transaction extremely attractive). At the same time, we are acting with an eye on OPEC activity. If the cartel decides to intervene, and oil goes above 51.20, then a stop coup is quite possible. Speaking of other news and macroeconomic statistics, we note that today will be published US employment data from ADP. Although the focus of the markets is traditionally focused on the official figures, which will be published on Friday, strong deviations in the fact from ADP from forecasts can provoke significant movements in dollar pairs.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by Trade24Fx
2
WTI Oil: Impact of SARS 2002/2003Hi Guys, just some infos: WTI dropped $15 when the World Health Organization issued a Global Alert iro SARS on March 12, 2003. en.wikipedia.org nCoV2019 was first reported from Wuhan, China, on 31 December 2019 What are your thoughts? If you have any questions or comment to add please do not hesitate to post it. Thank you for your support and for sharing your ideas. Disclaimer: Please note that I am not a professional trader and these are my personal ideas only. The information contained in this presentation is solely for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice. The risk of trading in securities markets can be substantial. You should carefully consider if engaging in such activity is suitable to your own financial situation. Cozzamara is not responsible for any liabilities arising from the result of your market involvement or individual trade activities. IMHO: The point of trading is to make money. To make money you must have money. Depending on the money at your disposal, you can decide what to do and how to do it. By having stops you decide how much you are willing to lose. By having targets you decide how much you want to earn. Be disciplined with your protocol and with your strategies for trading. Sometime you win, sometime you lose. Don't be greedy. Be realistic. Be wary but not afraid. Be curious. Use your brain. As long as your working process make sense and your spirit is calm, everything will be fine. Be patient and be prepared for any circumtances.
FX:USOIL
by cozzamara
ridethepig | Oil Breaking Down !There were the usual people who did not wish to engage in the sell-side before understanding what was being said from the WHO. Experts calling this a national emergency and now stronger players entering into the market with direct shocks on the demand side. Moves likes this, which weaken important structures should if possible be played and as a matter of fact, with large sizings. What is important is that the long-term flows have kept us comfortable in the move: The same highs we traded earlier in 2019: Things have continued.... Sellers are better. Clearly the downside is the correct move. In this position, sellers undoubtedly have the control, but since no one knows the full extent of the penetration nor impact that the coronavirus is having on output, we will remain in uncertain waters and only a supply shock can save the buyers. Those on the bid are praying for protection from OPEC, the silence is crippling. Sellers can consider to either play the direct breakdown through the floor (intending to clear some at 46.97 and holding the rest for the home-run). This of course has to be introduced by NY today and the securing of the break with a daily (and weekly) close. The reply from buyers would be muted, there is no contest below the file. This method is how I have characterised the entire activity by Sellers on each swing attached below. As usual thanks so much for keeping the support coming with likes, comments, questions, charts and etc! Good luck!
TVC:USOILShort
by ridethepig
6
Oil: “Don’t try to catch a falling knife”Hi Guys, January did not start bad with prices rising and peaking with Operation Martyr Soleimani. Despite this, all gains made in 45 days were lost quickly in 20 days thanks to coronavirus and worries over economic growth and oil demand. Since my last idea on WTI posted on Oct.7, black gold moved from $52 to $65 in approx. 45 days. The peak at $65 was reached when tensions between US and Iran escalated following the killing of the Iranian General Soleimani on Jan.3 and Iran hitting back with "Operation Martyr Soleimani". Tensions between US and Iran de-escalated since and now we are back again at same level of 1-2-3 which provided support at $52 thanks also to spreading of coronavirus. Will this level of previous support at 1-2-3 ($52) hold the pressure of this new virus? We don't know. All we know is that next OPEC meeting is scheduled for March 5 but they are trying already to stop the bleeding as this article from Reuters shows. www.reuters.com “Don’t try to catch a falling knife” is sage advice for investors trying to identify the trough in a market like oil following a sharp selloff. The following idea "The Cone" was posted on May 1 and it was structured on a Monthly chart. For additional infos about WTI please refer to the related ideas linked at the end of this post. If you have any questions or comment to add please do not hesitate to post it. Thank you for your support and for sharing your ideas. Disclaimer: Please note that I am not a professional trader and these are my personal ideas only. The information contained in this presentation is solely for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice. The risk of trading in securities markets can be substantial. You should carefully consider if engaging in such activity is suitable to your own financial situation. Cozzamara is not responsible for any liabilities arising from the result of your market involvement or individual trade activities. IMHO: The point of trading is to make money. To make money you must have money. Depending on the money at your disposal, you can decide what to do and how to do it. By having stops you decide how much you are willing to lose. By having targets you decide how much you want to earn. Be disciplined with your protocol and with your strategies for trading. Sometime you win, sometime you lose. Don't be greedy. Be realistic. Be wary but not afraid. Be curious. Use your brain. As long as your working process make sense and your spirit is calm, everything will be fine. Be patient and be prepared for any circumtances.
FX:USOIL
by cozzamara
1