Oilsignals
WTI OIL Neutral short-term buy watch these break-out levels.WTI Oil (USOIL) just broke above the Lower Highs trend-line that started after the brutal March 08 multi-year High. The 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) has turned into a short-term Support while the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) remains the short-term Resistance.
Despite the Lower Highs trend-line, the price action remains rather neutral due to March's wild swings and high volatility, unless either the 93.10 Support or the 117.00 Resistance break.
A break below 93.10 should be bearish towards the 1D MA200 (red trend-line) and then the December 20 low, but still it would be best to get a closing below the 85.50 High of 2021 before engaging into long-term selling.
A break above 117.00 should be bullish towards the 1.5 Fibonacci extension (152.60) long-term, which is the less likely scenario.
The safest strategy on the medium-term is to scalp inside the neutral zone.
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Long-term oil analysis #oilsome notes:
1_In World War II, because the United States won the war, it said that my dollar should be the reference currency
2_The United States did not fulfill its contract and did not store gold against the dollar
3_European countries realized and wanted to buy gold under the same law for every $ 35 an ounce of gold
4_Meanwhile, Arab countries imposed sanctions on Europe and oil prices rose
5_Now European countries needed dollars to buy oil
6_If oil prices are low, it is very dangerous for
the United States because negative inflation in the United States will form and stagnate.
Because the United States runs its country with
debt, it's the best inflationary position
7- America wants a lot of production so that the
industries will stop working and there will be an increase
$MARPS Next Target PTs 32-45 and higherMarine Petroleum Trust, together with its subsidiary, Marine Petroleum Corporation, operates as a royalty trust in the United States. As of June 30, 2021, the company had an overriding royalty interest in 55 oil and natural gas leases covering approximately 199,868 gross acres located in the Central and Western areas of the Gulf of Mexico off the coasts of Louisiana and Texas. Marine Petroleum Trust was incorporated in 1956 and is based in Dallas, Texas.
$HUSA Next Target PTs 16-35 and higher Long term PT 150 and highHouston American Energy Corp., an independent energy company, acquires, explores for, develops, and produces natural gas, crude oil, and condensate. Its oil and gas properties are located primarily in the Texas Permian Basin, the onshore Texas and Louisiana Gulf Coast region, and in the South American country of Colombia. As of December 31, 2020, the company owned interests in four gross wells. Houston American Energy Corp. was incorporated in 2001 and is based in Houston, Texas.
$IMPP Next Target PTs 9-18 and higherImperial Petroleum Inc. provides international seaborne transportation services to oil producers, refineries, and commodities traders. It carries refined petroleum products, such as gasoline, diesel, fuel oil, and jet fuel, as well as edible oils and chemicals; and crude oils. As of March 29, 2022, the company owned four medium range refined petroleum product tankers and one Aframax crude oil tanker with a total capacity of 305,804 deadweight tons. The company was incorporated in 2021 and is based in Athens, Greece.
WTI bulls step in with price holding back above $100bblsThe West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil market has rallied a bit on Wednesday to break above the top of the candlestick from Tuesday. If you remember, the Tuesday candlestick was what I referred to as a potential “binary trade”, meaning that if we can break above it, the market could go higher. After all, the neutral candlestick suggests that we are in the midst of trying to figure out whether or not momentum will pick up.
Now that we have broken decisively to the upside, the market looks very likely to continue going higher, perhaps reaching towards the $120 level. Given enough time, we could go all the way to the $130 level yet again. The market has been very bullish, but I do not want to see some type of parabolic move, because as you can see, we had recently had one of those, which of course fell apart quite drastically. There is only a certain amount of momentum that can come into a market without it falling apart, so the sustainability of the uptrend is what I am looking for.
Looking at the chart, the 50-day EMA is sitting at the $96.55 level and climbing. As long as we can stay above this indicator, it does suggest that we are still in an uptrend. The size of the candlestick is rather impressive, so I think we will continue to see buyers on every short-term dip. The market has been very noisy but has also been decidedly positive. I have no scenario in which I am willing to short the oil market anytime soon, so looking at dips as potential buying opportunities will continue to be the way to approach the market. That being said, we will eventually run into “demand destruction”, but I do not think we are anywhere near that right now.
Ultimately, this is a market that I think has quite a bit of upward mobility to it, especially as the war in Ukraine rages on. The lack of Russian oil on the open market is going to continue to cause issues, but inflation itself is reason enough to think that oil should continue to go higher. Regardless, this is a market that continues to offer plenty of opportunities for those willing to be patient enough to find value.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said the US gave written guarantees that Western sanctions against the country will not impact future trade with Iran, CNBC reported on 18 March.
After hovering lower for two weeks, Brent briefly returned to above $120/bbl on 25 March on reports that Yemen’s Houthi rebels – backed by Iran – launched fresh attacks on Saudia Arabia. The attack hit Saudi Aramco’s oil depot in Jeddah and other facilities in Riyadh. WTI also rose to above $114/bbl on the day.
The man who predicted crude oil $120 in 2020 when crude was at $30 alltime low
The EIA raised the trading price of Crude oil by $22 per barrel to an average of $105.22 per barrel in its March Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), and the American benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) to $101.17 per barrel. The higher price projection includes concerns about supply disruptions and additional sanctions as a result of Russia’s continued invasion of Ukraine.
Brent is expected to fall to $88.98 per barrel post-2022, whereas WTI will fall to $84.98 per barrel. The EIA emphasized, however, that the price projection is ‘very unpredictable’, as actual price outcomes will be determined by the severity of Russia’s sanctions, any new potential sanctions, and the impact of individual business actions.
In 2020, during the COVID outbreak, the event suddenly draws Crude & Brent oil prices. The crude oil (WTI) starts falling from $65/barrel to $19/barrel.
The continuous fall frightens investors all over the globe. But, Ankit, Wealth Manager (USA), who is also an entrepreneur & investor at that time publicly said on his YouTube video that crude will touch($90-$100) soon due to macroeconomic conditions which central banks created by putting interest rates at an all-time low.
Ankit said in 2020, due to this petrol prices will touch Rs.100 first time in India. In 2022, he seems indeed right. Today petrol prices all over India almost hit Rs.100 due to an international price hike in Brent oil.
Today also his video is still available on his YouTube platform which he created by the name of ‘Market Maestroo’.
This video he released on Dec.25 2020. One can check it as a fact as well. He is one of the only Wealth Managers in the Globe who predicted a rise in Crude oil & only economist in India who predicted Rs100/litre of petrol.
Apart from this, his many predictions in recent times come true which also become the centre of attraction for many
investors. He also predicted inflation is coming & USA inflation may touch 10%. Today Feb 2022, USA inflation is sitting at 30 year high of 8%.
After such successful predictions, Ankit, Wealth Manager (USA), now started gaining popularity & limelight. One of his famous quote in investing is “Investing is done with a calm mind, not to calm your mind
WTI oil outlook: Oil hits $130 per barrel on fears that Russian energy products
WTI bulls move in as US and EU move towards sanctioning Russia further.
US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) does little to cool down supply concerns.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil rose on Monday on persisting supply concerns as Russian energy sanctions are very much on the table following the Russian forces' civilian killings in north Ukraine. For a fresh high of the day, at $103.82. WTI spot is up by some 4.5% as White House's National Security Advisor, Jake Sullivan, announced that the US is working with European allies to coordinate further sanctions on Russia.
Sullivan said that they have concluded Russia has committed war crimes, Bucha offers further evidence to support that, pointing to a protracted war. '' Ukraine-Russia conflict may not be just a few more weeks, could be months.''
Ukraine’s top prosecutor has said 410 bodies had been found in towns recaptured from retreating Russian forces around Kyiv as part of an investigation into possible war crimes. The weekend media reported mass killings of civilians in the town of Bucha which had been under Russian occupation until recently.
The reports led to an array of calls from within the European Union for the bloc to go further in punishing Moscow. Consequently, a fifth package of sanctions against Russia is being arranged with the new round of measures expected to be approved later this week.
Meanwhile and despite the release of 180-million barrels from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) and an agreement last week from members of the International Energy Agency (IEA) to release some of their own strategic reserves, oil is firmer due to the persistence of geopolitical concerns.
"The global oil market remains in deep deficit of likely 1.5 mb/d over the last 4 weeks, before the loss of Russian supply even started, with global inventories at their lowest levels in recent history on a demand-adjusted basis and with limited OPEC and shale elasticity in months to come. Demand destruction requires higher prices, yet this dynamic is being nullified by increased government interventions in cutting gasoline taxes," Goldman Sachs said in a report.
''Indeed, while the SPR release can quell near-term tightness concerns, it does not solve the longer-term issues in the crude market. Structural deficit conditions could still persist down the road as these reserves will need to be replenished at a time when global spare capacity and inventory levels will still be stretched,'' analysts at TD Securities explained.
''In this sense, the right tail in energy markets is set to remain structurally fat as depleted reserves would add to the existing risks of self-sanctioning, stretched spare capacity across OPEC+, constrained shale production, an uncertain Iran deal and OECD inventories at their lowest since the Arab Spring. We expect this vast array of supply risks to remain the driving force in the energy market.''
WTI OIL is correcting. Continue to fall or new rally ahead?A month ago when WTI Oil was testing historic Highs due to the escalation of the Ukraine - Russia war, I called for the need to pull-back to the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line):
That day turned out to be the market top (to this date) and Oil did pull-back to the 1D MA50. In fact after the first 1D MA50 test (and hold), the price rebounded but only managed to make a Lower High and eventually got rejected back towards the 1D MA50 again, which held (so far) for the 2nd time. It is obvious that as long as it holds, it makes a stronger case for a new rebound. If that breaks above the prior Lower High/ Resistance of 117.00, then we can claim that the long-term bullish trend will be extended and in the next 3 months we will see successive Higher Highs. The basis for this, as I also analyzed on my March 08 analysis, is the similarities of the past 6 months of Oil's price action with the September 2020 - March 2021 sequence.
On the other hand, if the 1D MA50 fails and a 1D candle closes below it, WTI should seek the next Resistance Zone which consists of the Prior High of 85.50 and the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), which is currently at 80.75. A closing below the 1D MA200, could open the way to a new Bear Cycle.
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Daily Technical Analysis (Brent Oil)In the chart above, Brent Crude Oil has just broken downwards from the 0.38 Fibonacci level. The second red line from the top is another level of support that oil has broken out from. Also, the Stochastic RSI diverged (Top Blue Rectangle). Since these events have occurred, the price of oil has been decreasing.
If oil carries ongoing downwards to the 0.5 Fibonacci level then we could see some good level of support, Stochastic RSI has also just diverged (Bottom Blue Rectangle). So, following this, the yellow line shows my price prediction.
If oil carries on going down it could find some support at 0.5 and then rebound upwards. Then the price could find some resistance at the 0.38 level and if the buying power is strong enough the price could breakout upwards. If the buying power is not strong enough then oil could come back to the 0.5 level. Possibly even break through the 0.5 level, but that in opinion is not that likely.
LUKOY if i had to pick one russian stockIf i had to pick one russian stock after this huge sell-off, that would be LUKOIL (LUKOY).
PJSC LUKOIL engages in exploration, production, refining, marketing, and distribution of oil and gas.
Last year they had earnings of $773Bil and paid a dividend of $7.35, which is now higher than the price of one share.
It will be adjusted for sure.
The Market Cap is also low, $31.608Bil.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
$MARPS Next Target PT 30 Long term PTs 40 and higherMarine Petroleum Trust, together with its subsidiary, Marine Petroleum Corporation, operates as a royalty trust in the United States. As of June 30, 2021, the company had an overriding royalty interest in 55 oil and natural gas leases covering approximately 199,868 gross acres located in the Central and Western areas of the Gulf of Mexico off the coasts of Louisiana and Texas. Marine Petroleum Trust was incorporated in 1956 and is based in Dallas, Texas.
WTI OIL Can the death fractal of 2008 be repeated?We haven't looked into WTI Oil recently, the last post I made was on March 08, calling what I thought at the time as the medium-term peak:
The price did eventually pull-back to the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and rebounded as it constitutes the medium-term Support, following the March 2021 sequence.
On a much larger scale though, and since the war isn't over yet and inflation runs wild, I thought it would be beneficial looking at the last time similar conditions were leading the Oil market higher. Sadly, that was during the 2008 peak of the U.S. Housing Bubble.
As you see, today's 2021-2022 fractal can be related to a great extent to the 2007-2008 sequence. If the market dynamics have been indeed aligned as in 2008, then Oil has entered the final phase towards the blow-off top, as it rebounded on its 1D MA50. Now of course, reaching the 2.382 Fibonacci extension around $178.00 for a blow-off top, seems even under the latest aggressive conditions, as unrealistic. But a value around $150.00 as a Higher High to the March 08 shock, could very well be printed.
Do you think the market will follow in 2008's footsteps and if so what is your projected top?
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EIA: Oil Prices Will Remain Above $100 For MonthsOil prices will remain higher than $100 per barrel in the coming months, reflecting the geopolitical risk from Russia’s war in Ukraine and the tight energy markets with the current and potential future sanctions against Russia, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on Wednesday.
Brent Crude prices are expected to average $105.22 per barrel this year, the EIA said in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) last week, significantly raising its February forecast of $82.87.
In its March STEO last week, the EIA said it expects Brent Crude prices to average $117 a barrel in March, $116 for the second quarter of this year, and $102 per barrel in the second half of 2022.
WTI Crude, the U.S. benchmark, is set to average $113 a barrel this month and $112 per barrel for the second quarter of 2022.
Early on Wednesday, before the EIA inventory report, WTI was up 2% at over $98, and Brent was rising by 1.6% to $101.46.
EIA’s oil price forecast, however, “is subject to heightened levels of uncertainty due to various factors, including Russia’s further invasion of Ukraine, government-issued limitations on energy imports from Russia, Russian petroleum production, and global crude oil demand,” the administration said.
The current forecast Brent price also increased the forecast for the U.S. retail gasoline price, which the EIA expects to average $4.00/gal this month and continue rising to a forecast high of $4.12/gal in May before gradually falling through the rest of the year. The U.S. regular retail gasoline price is now seen to average $3.79/gal this year and $3.33/gal in 2023. If realized, the average 2022 retail gasoline price would be the highest average price since 2014, after adjusting for inflation, the EIA said.
As of March 16, the national average gasoline price was $4.305/gal, according to AAA data.
“This war is roiling an already tight global oil market and making it hard to determine if we are near a peak for pump prices, or if they keep grinding higher. It all depends on the direction of oil prices,” Andrew Gross, AAA spokesperson, said on Monda
y.
Saudi Arabia Considers Ditching The Dollar For Chinese Oil Sales
The status of the U.S. dollar as the reserve currency of the world is largely based on its importance in energy and commodity markets.
According to an exclusive report from the Wall Street Journal, Saudi Arabia and China are now discussing pricing some Saudi oil exports in Yuan.
China is aggressively pushing to dethrone the dollar as the global reserve currency, and this latest development suggests the petrodollar is now being threatened.
One of the core staples of the past 40 years, and an anchor propping up the dollar's reserve status, was a global financial system based on the petrodollar. This was a world in which oil producers would sell their product to the US (and the rest of the world) for dollars, which they would then recycle the proceeds of in dollar-denominated assets and, while investing in dollar-denominated markets, explicitly prop up the USD as the world reserve currency. All of this would support the standing of the US as the world's undisputed financial superpower.
Those days are coming to an end.
One day after we reported that the "UK is asking Saudis for more oil even as MBS invites Xi Jinping to Riyadh to strengthen ties", the WSJ is out with a blockbuster report, noting that "Saudi Arabia is in active talks with Beijing to price some of its oil sales to China in yuan," a move that could cripple not only the petrodollar’s dominance of the global petroleum market - something which Zoltan Pozsar predicted in his last note - and mark another shift by the world’s top crude exporter toward Asia, but also a move aimed squarely at the heart of the US financial system which has taken advantage of the dollar's reserve status by printing as many dollars as needed to fund government spending for the past decade.
According to the report, the talks with China over yuan-priced oil contracts have been off and on for six years but have accelerated this year as the Saudis have grown increasingly unhappy with decades-old U.S. security commitments to defend the kingdom.
The Saudis are angry over the U.S.’s lack of support for their intervention in the Yemen civil war, and over the Biden administration’s attempt to strike a deal with Iran over its nuclear program. Saudi officials have said they were shocked by the precipitous U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan last year.
China buys more than 25% of the oil that Saudi Arabia exports, and if priced in yuan, those sales would boost the standing of China’s currency, and set the Chinese currency on a path to becoming a global petroyuan reserve currency.
As even the WSJ admits, a shift to a (petro)yuan system, "would be a profound shift for Saudi Arabia to price even some of its roughly 6.2 million barrels of day of crude exports in anything other than dollars" as the majority of global oil sales—around 80%—are done in dollars, and the Saudis have traded oil exclusively in dollars since 1974, in a deal with the Nixon administration that included security guarantees for the kingdom. It appears that the Saudis no longer care much about US "security guarantees" and instead are switching their allegiance to China.
As a reminder, back in March 2018, China introduced yuan-priced oil contracts as part of its efforts to make its currency tradable across the world, but they haven’t made a dent in the dollar’s dominance of the oil market, largely because the USD remained the currency of choice for oil exporters. But, as Pozsar also noted recently, for China the use of dollars has become a hazard highlighted by U.S. sanctions on Iran over its nuclear program and on Russia in response to its invasion of Ukraine.
BCO LONG OIL WTI LONGOil Price forecast for March 2022.
In the beginning price at 107.02 Dollars. High price 139.13, low 90.50. The average for the month 107.13. The Oil Price forecast at the end of the month 91.88, change for March -14.1%.
Brent oil price forecast for April 2022.
In the beginning price at 91.88 Dollars. High price 91.88, low 84.91. The average for the month 88.72. The Oil Price forecast at the end of the month 86.20, change for April -6.2%.
Oil Price forecast for May 2022.
In the beginning price at 86.20 Dollars. High price 92.91, low 86.20. The average for the month 89.21. The Oil Price forecast at the end of the month 91.54, change for May 6.2%.
Brent oil price forecast for June 2022.
In the beginning price at 91.54 Dollars. High price 98.68, low 91.54. The average for the month 94.75. The Oil Price forecast at the end of the month 97.22, change for June 6.2%.
Oil Price forecast for July 2022.
In the beginning price at 97.22 Dollars. High price 104.80, low 97.22. The average for the month 100.62. The Oil Price forecast at the end of the month 103.25, change for July 6.2%.
Why Oil Crashed Back Below $100
After a torrid three-week rally, energy markets have entered correction mode, with prices moving sharply lower. Over the past week, Brent has slipped 30% from the 7 March intra-day high while European gas prices have declined 65%.
Brent for May delivery settled at USD 106.90 per barrel (bbl) on 14 March, a w/w fall of USD 16.31/bbl, and moved below USD 100/bbl in early trading on 15 March. WTI for April delivery fell USD 16.31/bbl w/w to USD 106.90/bbl at settlement on 14 March, while the value of the OPEC basket fell by USD 15.84/bbl to USD 110.67/bl and by EUR 15.40/bbl to EUR 101.16/bbl.
You can blame speculative overshoot for the unfolding scenario though the overall outlook remains bullish.
According to Standard Chartered commodity analysts, the correction tells us more about market positioning and the effect of extreme volatility than it does about changes in fundamentals over the past week.
The increase in volatility across financial and commodity markets has led to a sharp rise in the level of risk held by traders, and an associated incentive to close out some positions to lower the risk. Oil traders have mostly been positioned with a highly bullish bias in terms of both outright positions and spreads in recent weeks, meaning optimization in a higher-risk environment has mostly involved closing out prompt longs. With speculative shorts being very thin on the ground currently, there have been few natural buyers, and the downside has quickly opened up. While the price ranges involved have been rather extreme, recent price dynamics bear all the hallmarks of a textbook speculative overshoot followed by the correction necessary to reset extreme positioning.
The irony of the situation is that the dominance among oil traders of the belief that prices could only move higher has led to a position from which market dynamics dictated that in the short term, prices could only go lower.
Replacing Russian Oil
Despite the positioning-led price fall, StanChart says that the key fundamentals are largely unchanged and are also subject to an unusually high level of uncertainty.
According to commodity analysts at Standard Chartered, Russian oil flows to Europe can be replaced in the short term, with the short-term price implications of that displacement potentially capable of being minimized by the extent to which OPEC members increase output beyond their current OPEC+ targets, and also by the possibility of a successful conclusion to talks in Vienna that results in higher volumes of Iranian exports.
The analysts have projected that consumer reluctance to buy from Russia coupled with shortages of capital, equipment, and technology will continue to depress Russian output over at least the next three years. Russian output is expected to fall by 1.612 million barrels per day (mb/d) y/y in 2022, and by a further 0.217mb/d in 2023, with the y/y decline peaking at 2.306mb/d in Q2-2022. To avoid significant upside price pressure, StanChart reckons that the market would require around 2mb/d extra supply for the remainder of 2022, and an additional 2mb/d in Q2 to ease the dislocations caused by the displacement of Russian oil. The temporary 2mb/d Q2 boost could come from strategic reserves, but the 2mb/d additional flow for the remainder of 2022 would likely need to come from OPEC sources (including potentially Iran).
Market tightness is, however, being helped by the fact that withdrawal from Russian markets has been less dramatic than anticipated.
So far, there are indications that some of the larger EU countries are less keen than countries in the east of the EU to pursue the fastest possible reduction in Russian oil flows. Outside of the EU, the UK’s ban on the import of Russian oil has proved less dramatic than the headlines that accompanied the initial announcement, as it does not take effect until the end of 2022. In the private sector, while several companies have given assurances they will buy no more Russian oil on the spot market, there have been very few indications given about if, when, and how they will cut the volume of Russian oil purchased through their term contracts. Meanwhile, statements from some governments and some companies do appear to have become less hawkish over the past week, with an apparent lengthening of the timespan envisaged for the process of reducing dependence.
StanChart says that Russian oil trade into Europe appears to be moving further into the shadows of term contracts and a greater reliance on third-party trading intermediaries. That does not make trading with Russia any less distasteful for European public opinion, but it does make the trade less visible and thus likely keeps oil flows from Russia higher than they would have been with more direct government targeting of those flows.
USOIL to $125 this summer, UBS saysOil hits two-week low but UBS is still bullish on Crude.
UBS laid out three reasons for its $125 USOIL this summer:
1. Russian oil exports hurt by sanctions, which will further tighten global supplies.
2. Spare capacity brought in by OPEC is less than 2% of global demand.
3. Global oil demand still heading for record highs with Europeans and Americans returning to normal travel patterns once COVID-19 restrictions are lifted.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
$GUSH Target PT 300 and higherThe fund, under normal circumstances, invests at least 80% of its net assets in financial instruments, such as swap agreements, securities of the index, and ETFs that track the index and other financial instruments that provide daily leveraged exposure to the index or to ETFs that track the index. The index is designed to measure the performance of a sub-industry or group of sub-industries determined based on the Global Industry Classification Standards. The fund is non-diversified.
$ENSV Next Target PT 9.90 and higher...Long term PTs 20-60 Enservco Corporation, through its subsidiaries, provides well enhancement and fluid management services to the onshore oil and natural gas industry in the United States. It offers frac water heating, hot oiling, pressure testing, acidizing, bacteria and scale treatment, freshwater and saltwater hauling, fluid disposal, frac tank rental, well site construction, and other general oil field services. The company owns and operates a fleet of approximately 338 specialized trucks, trailers, frac tanks, and other well-site related equipment. It operates in the eastern United States region comprising the southern region of the Marcellus Shale formation and the Utica Shale formation in eastern Ohio; Rocky Mountain region consisting of western Colorado and southern Wyoming, central Wyoming, western North Dakota, and eastern Montana; and the Central United States region, including Eagle Ford Shale and Permian Basin in Texas. Enservco Corporation was incorporated in 1980 and is headquartered in Longmont, Colorado.