Oilsignals
USOIL CHART UPDATEHey Traders,
We posted this idea yesterday with our first TARGET now complete. Our level was respected perfectly.
At the end of last week's Friday close, WTI had settled after a three week continuous plunge that had hit a low that was last reached in late 2021. The crash was caused by anxiety over the US economy. Speculators and investors had rolled out of their positions and this dried up liquidity leaving the market mainly in the hands of algorithms and momentum traders, exacerbating volatility.
We have seen the effects of liquidity drying up in this market before and how it creates extreme price swings. Last year was a case in point where we had erratic intra-day price moves that were extremely lucrative for the professionals who know how to trade in that jungle but that chopped up the rest especially retail traders.
In the current setup, if oil breaks and closes below $63 it will cause a cascade in other markets. We at BluetonaFX are still long-term bullish on oil as the speculators and high liquidity will return. It's a good idea to trade crude in any case if you are also trading other commodities such as gold given that when the oil market collapses, it can pull other commodities lower due to margin calls across the class.
PREVIOUS POST
Please see our chart idea fir USOIL and range projection.
TARGET 1 - 73.61
TARGET 2 - 82.72
We are looking for break and retest as support to trade the movement.
Please like, comment and follow to support us, we really appreciate it.
BluetonaFX
WTI OIL Very strong long-term Buy opportunity.WTI Oil (USOIL) hit the last remaining targets as pointed out on our April 24 idea:
In fact, this completed our long-term 3 target approach as presented on our analysis three weeks ago:
That has come after a Double Bottom buy almost 2 months ago (March 16), which falls into our usual long-term swing trading approach that we apply successfully on our activities:
Right now we are on a similar buy opportunity like that idea above almost 2 months ago, as not only did the price bounce aggressively on the 64.50 Support (previous Low) but also the 1D RSI got oversold (30.00) and is rebounding. That has been a common feature on all previous Lower Lows within the long-term (8-month) Channel Down pattern that started on the August 30 2022 High.
Every bullish leg towards the Channel Down Top, has always hit at least the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). That is currently at 75.66 but declining aggressively and we expect contact to be made at 73.90, which is the top of the 5-month Pivot Zone (that has been a Support for 3 months straight). The previous Lower High (April 13) was made exactly on the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) which is the long-term Resistance, so it is very likely to hit that level also on the long-term but until then we will have our outlook updated.
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WTI OIL Target hit. Now sell the rebound.WTI Oil (USOIL) hit our 72.50 target we set last week (see chart below) and maintains the tight trade within this short-term Channel Down pattern:
At the moment today's aggressive bearish leg can very well make a Lower Low of the Channel Down at 71.10 and then rebound, with the 4H RSI Rectangle giving a valid level on its bottom to be prepared for. Until the price closes above the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line), we will look to sell again near the top of the Channel Down and target the bottom at 68.10, near the 1W MA200 (yellow trend-line).
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Crude oil is about to return to the upward pathAt present, oil continues to fluctuate in the 70-83 region. Last month, OPEC suddenly announced a production cut and opened higher. After a month of fluctuation, the gap was finally filled last week. Then the top-bottom conversion to the 75.7-75 region has become an important support in the short term. As for crude oil short orders, there is no rush to participate for the time being, and the technical outlook is rising;
News that lower oil inventories are also a factor in the rise in crude oil; in addition, Saudi Arabia and Iraq will reduce production at any time to protect oil prices and revenue, and the probability of a sharp decline is very small, so today's crude oil trading is mainly based on low-level long positions.
So our trading strategy and signals are very clear. I have published the detailed trading signals in my channel. You can enter to receive them.
WTI OIL Channel Down extended selling to 72.50.Perfect execution of our plan last Monday for WTI Oil (USOIL) as the price initially rebounded to the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line), got rejected and hit our 74.00 target:
That is the top of the Pivot Zone that started back in mid-December. We are now expecting a (near) test of the 1D MA50 (red trend-line) as a Resistance to see if we'll get the rejection for bearish continuation as it happened on April 25. Our short-term target in this case is 72.50, the bottom of the Pivot Zone.
All this is part of course to our long-term trading plan:
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USOIL - Waiting for a Breakout 📉On The Weekly Time Frame, The USOIL Price Reached a Major Key Level (80.46-83.32) ✔
The Price Failed To Break This Resistance Level !
So, I Expect a Bearish Move 📉
i'm waiting for a Successful Breakout in Support Trendline 🔥
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TARGET: 74.35🎯
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OIL BUYHey, the oil market has reached an important area as you can see in the analysis. There is a high probability of an uptrend with a retest of the descending channel. good luck for everbody .Note: If you like this analysis, please give your opinion on it. in the comments. I will be happy to share ideas. Like and click to get free content. Thank you
4/25 Crude oil trading signal: Sell
The pattern of crude oil is similar to a double top, with resistance levels near 78.8-79.2, so a short signal was given before the market today. Now the trend is still in a short form. The rebound is a short opportunity. If you can't grasp the timing well, you can find me
WTI OIL Filling the downside gap but short-term rebound.The WTI Oil (USOIL) got, as we expected, heavily rejected on the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), starting to fill the gap of March:
Our next target is 74.00, just above the Pivot Zone, but on the short-term, with the 4H RSI rebounding after getting oversold (has given a 100% buy signal short-term in the past 4 months), we expect a rise towards the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) for rejection.
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Brent Crude Oil Swing TradeThe price of Brent Crude Oil has fallen and tested the previous support level (Blue Line) outlined in the previous newsletter. Currently, we could see a potential swing back upwards. If the price breaks the support level, we could see a fall in price. However, I see the former as the more likely scenario, as the 0.5 Fibonacci level (Green Line) is also below the trendline - providing further support.
This support is further backed by the Stochastic RSI and MACD indicator coming to show potential buy signals.
To see why I chose these support and Resistance Levels see my linked idea below.
WTI OIL Broke below the 4H MA50. Sell confirmed.WTI OIL (USOIL) broke yesterday below its 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) and today upon re-testing it as a Resistance, it is currently being rejected. This is a major sell signal as since December 2022 inside the Resistance Zone, every such break-out was a confirmed sell. All prior 5 cases hit the Support Zone shortly after. Even an oversold 4H RSI doesn't mean a bottom will be formed. As a result we are confident to keep our medium-term sells (opened last week after the price got rejected on the 1D MA200 (red trend-line)) and target 74.00.
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Weekly Price Projection for Brent Crude Oil W/C 17th April 2023Price Range Projection:
Weekly High: ~ $86.58
Weekly Low: ~ $82.818
In the chart above, you can see the price on the 3-hour timescale, along with a fixed range volume profile.
Weekly High Projection
The fixed range volume profile (the horizontal histogram) is an indicator that can be used to show resistance and support levels. The red horizontal line in the close-up chart above indicates the point of control, which is the price level that had the most volume. As you can see, the price stalled around this point. This is where I see the weekly high.
Weekly Low Projection
I have placed the weekly low at a previous support level, which was formed from a chart pattern that had a breakout more than a month ago. This is shown with the two blue trendlines.
WTI OIL on a triple Resistance test! Get ready for a big move.WTI Oil (USOIL) has gone a long way since our buy call a month ago, that not only did it hit its target but smashed through the Jan Lower Highs and the 1D MA100:
The critical development of the week is that it hit the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) for the first time since August 30 2022. Naturally that alone constitutes big news as along with the 83.35 High of December 01 and the top (Lower Highs trend-line) if the 8-month Channel Down, form a Triple Resistance Cluster.
In our opinion, as long as the price is inside the Channel Down, we have a huge long-term sell opportunity, with Target 1 being on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) at 76.50.
If on the other hand breaks above the Channel Down, we will hedge buy on the short-term and target the 1W MA50 (red trend-line) at 88.00, which is untouched since October 10.
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WTI breaks out of consolidation, $90 up next?WTI broke out of consolidation and closed above its 200-day EMA and resistance zone. The OBV (on balance indicator) confirmed the breakout with a move to a new cycle high, and volumes (whilst below average) are turning higher to show buyers stepping back in.
Furthermore, we saw a gap ahead of the consolidation above HKEX:79 , although using classic definitions it doesn't quite fit into 'breakaway' or 'runaway' gap category. Regardless, we've seen a 30% rally from the March low with a gap along the way, OPEC+ cut oil production, and the trend points higher.
With that said, the 200-day MA is capping as resistance, so bulls may want to wait for a break (or daily close) above the level. But overall, the risks appear skewed to the upside.
- The bias remains bullish above 79 and an initial move to 90, then the 93.60 highs
- Wednesday's low could be used for tighter risk management
Oil Gap - A Game Changer for its PricesGap means a runaway in prices or a confirmation of a clean break away from its downtrend line. (Technical)
OPEC-Plus made a surprise announcement to reduce oil production starting May. Unlike OPEC, OPEC-Plus involve many more countries. This signals a synchronise effort to boost crude oil prices. Expect a much higher oil prices to come. (Fundamental)
My recent crude oil videos:
• Crude Oil Outlook - USD106 as major resistance
• Why Crude Oil is Trending Higher Again, Breaking Above US$100
• Correlation - Crude Oil & CPI
• Crude oil a leading inflation indicator
See its link below.
3 types of crude oil for trading:
• Crude Oil Futures
0.01 per barrel = $10.00
Code: CL
• E-mini Crude Oil Futures
0.025 per barrel = $12.50
Code QM
• Micro WTI Crude Oil
0.01 per barrel = $1.00
Code MCL
Disclaimer:
• What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker.
• Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
WTI OIL Near a long-term ResistanceWTI Oil (USOIL) hit our medium-term target last week but following OPEC's cuts, it opened with a big gap up on Monday:
In order to more effectively understand the market dynamics after this move, it is best to view Oil on the 1W time-frame where we see all key characteristics of this move. First the rebound 2 weeks ago started after the price tested the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) for the first time since February 01 2021. The price closed back above it and the rebound landed us to where we are now.
This is just shy off Resistance Zone 1, which is holding since November 2022. This calls for the most optimal sell opportunity on a quarterly basis, targeting again the 1W MA200 and the 2 year Support Zone at 63.00.
However with the 1W RSI on Higher Lows i.e. a Bullish Divergence against the candles' Lower Lows, we have to consider the probability of a potential bullish break-out. Since the 1W MA50 was a long-term Support turned into Resistance that hasn't allowed a 1W candle close above its since November 2022, we are willing to buy only if we close above it. The target on that occasion will be 93.00 (Resistance 2).
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WTI Crude Oil is Going Down! Sell!
Here is our technical outlook for WTI Crude Oil.
Time Frame: Daily
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is approaching a significant resistance area 73.8.
The above-mentioned technicals clearly indicate the dominance of sellers on the market.
I recommend shorting the instrument, aiming at 66.3 level.
Like and subscribve and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
WTI OIL Channel Up aiming at the 1D MA50.WTI Oil (USOIL) transitioned from the Inverse Head and Shoulders (IH&S) pattern we described last week to a Channel Up:
Our target remains 74.50 on the medium-term which makes both a Higher High on the Channel Up while filling a 2.0 Fibonacci extension, which is the technical target for the IH&S.
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