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Oil traders overreacting to the wrong triggers? Oil traders overreacting to the wrong triggers? Divisions within OPEC have caused WTI crude to fall below $74 per barrel, ending a three-day climb for the commodity. Angola, which joined OPEC in 2007, said it is leaving the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries. This move raised concerns about OPEC's capacity to stabilize global prices, particularly amid disagreements over oil production quotas. However, operational challenges in Angola have hampered the country's ability to reach its sanctioned daily output of 1.5 million barrels; so maybe its departure is not hugely damaging to OPEC’s control, and the market is overreacting to the wrong thing here. Maybe, a more pressing issue could be the surging production in the United States. Recent data from the Energy Information Administration revealed a record-breaking daily output of 13.3 million barrels last week. For one, Goldman Sachs has adjusted its forecast for the average oil price next year, reducing it by 12% due to ample production in the United States. In a note released last Sunday, Goldman revised its estimate, projecting an average of $81 per barrel in 2024, down from the previous estimate of $92 per barrel. Goldman Sachs anticipates it to reach its peak at $85 per barrel in June. Meanwhile, Citigroup offers a more cautious outlook by forecasting an average 2024 oil price of $75. This stands as the lowest projection among the major U.S. banks
BLACKBULL:WTI
by BlackBull_Markets
Oil Market Volatility due to Shipping Disruptions in the Red SeaIt has come to our attention that several shipping companies have temporarily halted their operations in the Red Sea, leading to a slight disruption in the transportation of oil. As you are aware, the Red Sea is a crucial shipping route for oil tankers, connecting major oil-producing regions to global markets. Any disruption in this route can have far-reaching implications, causing ripple effects throughout the oil market. The current situation demands cautious consideration of our trading strategies, particularly regarding long oil positions. While the exact reasons behind the shipping companies' decision to temporarily halt their operations in the Red Sea remain undisclosed, it is imperative that we closely monitor the situation and assess its potential impact on oil prices. The reduced availability of shipping routes may result in increased transportation costs, delays in deliveries, and potential supply constraints. These factors can contribute to short-term volatility and uncertainty in the oil market. In light of this development, I encourage you to exercise caution when considering long oil positions. It is crucial to stay informed about the latest updates regarding the shipping disruptions in the Red Sea and their potential implications on oil supply and demand dynamics. We can better navigate the market and make informed trading decisions by remaining vigilant and responsive to these changes. To stay updated, I recommend closely monitoring reputable news sources, industry reports, and official statements from shipping companies and relevant authorities. Additionally, engaging in discussions with fellow traders and industry experts can provide valuable insights and perspectives. As always, I would like to emphasize the importance of conducting thorough research and analysis before making any trading decisions. While volatility can present opportunities, it also carries risks that need to be carefully evaluated. By maintaining a cautious approach and considering the potential consequences of the shipping disruptions in the Red Sea, we can mitigate potential losses and capitalize on favorable market conditions. Should you have any questions or require further information, please do not hesitate to reach out to me via comment.
TVC:USOILLong
by bryandowningqln
Oil's Next Move: Red Sea Conflict and $75? Oil's Next Move: Red Sea Conflict and $75? BP has suspended all oil and gas shipments through the Red Sea due to a rise in attacks on cargo ships and a deteriorating security situation attributed to Iran-aligned Houthi militants in Yemen. This move has caused a 2% surge in oil prices, pushing WTI crude futures to $72.5 per barrel. This development signals the first indication of a spill-over effect in Israel-Palestine tensions that could impact global supply chains in 2024. Some shipping companies are now avoiding the Red Sea/Suez Canal, choosing to navigate around Africa instead. This shift will likely contribute to increased supply costs and delays in the coming weeks. There is a possibility of the U.S. military intervening to ensure the critical shipping route remains open. However, reports also suggest a potential near-term peace agreement between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia, which could eliminate the need for U.S. intervention. Despite these uncertainties, the current abundance of oil supply might be constraining upward pressure on prices. The recent price increase could be attributed more to short covering, as money managers have consistently reduced their net long U.S. crude futures and options positions for the eleventh consecutive week, as reported by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission on Friday. From a technical standpoint, WTI is currently making an effort to secure a closure above the $72.5 threshold, and beyond that, it aims for the $73.5 level, where the 20-day Moving Average is situated. The subsequent resistance lies at a significant psychological milestone of $75. The geopolitical situation holds a crucial role. If tensions persist, there is a possibility of breaching the current levels and a subsequent upward movement toward the $80 benchmark.
BLACKBULL:WTI
by BlackBull_Markets
Weekly Price Prediction: $78.00 (Min) and $87.50 (Max)Projected Price Range The anticipated weekly price range for Brent Crude Oil is expected to fluctuate between $75.62 (Min) and $81.93 (Max). Contended Price Levels $81.00 - $78.00 High Volume Node - potential support $81.73 Resistance Line - potential resistance $75.62 Support Line - potential support Technical Analysis Fibonacci Retracement Breakout: The price has gone below the 0.5 Fibonacci level. This level is currently just a dollar above the blue resistance line. Volume Profile Analysis: High Volume Nodes (HVM): Bottom HVM: Signifying an area of good liquidity and a potential support region. The price has stalled in this area over the last few weeks. If the price breaks downwards it could carry on. MACD and Stochastic RSI: Stoch RSI (Bottom Indicator): It has crossed over at the bottom and now has just about crossed over at the top. Showing overbought pressure and a potential downturn. MACD (Top Indicator): This indicator has maintained just below the negative region and has refused to move out over the last few weeks. I don't see it going anywhere this week. I believe it will stay and we won't see a bullish signal this week from this indicator. Additional Factors Prior Resistance ( Top Blue Line): Just above the Bottom HVM, a blue line represents a prior resistance level. The blue line just crosses over the current price bar. Could be a potential resistance area as well. Prior Support (Bottom Blue Line): This represents a support level for the price. This may be crucial if broken as the HVM is just above it. The blue line just crosses over the current price bar. Could be a potential support area as well. Geopolitical Events: Given the volatile nature of the commodities market, traders are advised to stay vigilant regarding any geopolitical events in the upcoming week, as these events can significantly impact oil prices. Conclusion To conclude we see the price range being between $75.62 (Min) and $81.93 (Max). This is due to the price staying within the HVM and seeing support with also a support line just below the HVM. However, there is a resistance line just above the HVM as well. These two support and resistance lines make our price range for this week. The Stoch RSI is showing a bearish sentiment so this will be crucial to watch out for. Also, something else which is crucial to watch out for is the blue line that has already crossed the current price bar. This will form new support/resistance. The MACD is effectively null this week.
OANDA:BCOUSD
by BlackbearTrader
LIOC.N0000LIOC Update on 01/11/2023 LIOC trying to break 50 Daily MA line. If LIOC can close few more daily candle 50 DMA line, then LIOC might run till 200 Daily MA level. So short term target will be 150. Disclaimer: The information and analysis provided in this publication are for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice or recommendations to buy, sell, or hold any securities. The author and TradingView are not responsible for any investment decisions made based on the content presented herein. Always consult a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
CSELK:LIOC.N0000Long
by rukshan2102
Evaluating OPEC+ Compliance Levels for Cautious Oil TradingAs you are aware, the upcoming OPEC+ member countries to implement potential oil-supply cuts has sparked considerable interest and speculation within the trading community. Today, I would like to draw your attention to the importance of evaluating the compliance levels of these member countries and how it presents a potential opportunity for cautious oil trading. The proposed oil-supply cuts have been designed to stabilize oil prices amidst the ongoing global economic uncertainties. However, it is crucial to assess the actual compliance of OPEC+ member countries with these agreed-upon cuts. By doing so, we can gain valuable insights into the potential impact on global oil supply and demand dynamics. To effectively evaluate compliance levels, it is recommended to closely monitor official statements, production data, and any relevant news updates from OPEC and non-OPEC countries. Analyzing these factors will provide a clearer understanding of how closely member countries are adhering to their commitments. While evaluating compliance levels, it is important to maintain a cautious approach towards trading oil. The current market conditions are highly volatile and unpredictable, influenced by various geopolitical and economic factors. It is advisable to exercise prudence and carefully assess the potential risks associated with any trading decisions. In light of the potential opportunities arising from the evaluation of compliance levels, I encourage you to consider engaging in oil trading. However, it is crucial to approach this market with a cautious mindset, ensuring that you have a well-thought-out trading strategy in place. Diversification and risk management should be at the forefront of your decision-making process. As always, it is essential to stay informed and updated on the latest developments in the oil market. By leveraging reliable sources of information, you can make informed trading decisions and navigate the market with greater confidence. In conclusion, evaluating the compliance levels of OPEC+ member countries with the proposed oil-supply cuts presents an opportunity for cautious oil trading. However, it is imperative to remain vigilant, assess the risks involved, and develop a sound trading strategy that aligns with your risk appetite. Should you require any further information or assistance in evaluating compliance levels or refining your trading strategy, please do not hesitate to comment below. Thank you for your attention, and I wish you successful and prudent trading in these challenging times.
TVC:USOILLong
by bryandowningqln
Are OPEC+ voluntary cuts enough to support oil prices?After the latest OPEC+ meeting, the price of WTI crude oil dropped more than 2% to $75 per barrel, ending a two-day win streak. During the meeting, OPEC+ agreed to cut oil production early next year by almost 2 million barrels per day (bpd). This decision was spurred by worries about having too much oil in the market coinciding with the end of Saudi Arabia's voluntary 1 million bpd cut. Saudi Arabia said it would continue its cut until at least the first quarter of 2024. Russia also extended its cut to 500,000 bpd for the first quarter. Iraq agreed to reduce output by 211,000 bpd, and UAE pledged to cut 160,000 bpd in the first quarter. However, OPEC+ also invited Brazil to join the group. Brazil said they plan to join in January and increase their daily oil output to 3.8 million barrels, countering the other members pledges to cut production and support prices.
BLACKBULL:USOIL.F
by BlackBull_Markets
7 Dimension Analysis For OIL🕛 TOPDOWN Analysis - Monthly Bullish Structure, Weekly Bearish Inducement Overview: The monthly market structure maintains a bullish stance, holding key supports. On the weekly chart, a valid low was established, accompanied by a strong bearish inducement. While a demand flip occurred, the overall trend remains bearish, marked by a record session count and inside candle price action. The daily time frame reveals a bearish swing structure with impulsive moves, indicating potential further downside. 😇 7 Dimension Analysis Time Frame: Daily 1️⃣ Swing Structure: Bearish 🟢 Structure Behavior: ChoCh 🟢 Swing Move: Impulsive 🟢 Inducement: Suggests potential further downward movement. 🟢 Pull Back: No significant pullback observed. 🟢 Resistance Zones: Market encounters resistance at every supply zone post- ChoCh, forming a bearish build-up, indicating potential future downside. No traps observed. 2️⃣ Pattern 🟢 CHART PATTERNS Continuation Symmetric Triangle Shakeout Continuation 🟢 CANDLE PATTERNS Notable Observations: Momentum candles with Fake out/FOMO. Tweezer at the internal move top. Inside candles in the last three days. 3️⃣ Volume: Significant volumes observed at the beginning of the move. 4️⃣ Momentum RSI: 🟢 RSI Below 40: Indicates a super bearish zone with high selling pressure. 🟢 Range Shift: Shifted sideways to bearish, suggesting ongoing bearish activity. 🟢 Divergence: Hidden bearish divergence present. 5️⃣ Volatility Bollinger Bands: 🟢 Middle Band Resistance: Strong rejection observed. 🟢 Head fake: At the top of the move, indicating a potential deep bearish move. ✔️ Entry Time Frame: H1 ✅ Entry TF Structure: Bearish ☑️ Current Move: Impulsive Bearish ✔ Support Resistance Base: Takes resistance at a significant level. ☑️ Candles Behavior: Extremely volatile bearish momentum. ☑️ Trend Line Breakout: Confirmed. ☑️ Final Comments: Sell at the open. 💡 Decision: Sell 🚀 Entry: 75.22 ✋ Stop Loss: 78.04 🎯 Take Profit: 68.07, 2nd Exit if Internal Structure Changes, 3rd Exit on a trendline breakout or FOMO. 😊 Risk to Reward Ratio: 1:3.5 🕛 Expected Duration: 7 days SUMMARY: The analysis reveals a monthly bullish structure but a weekly bearish inducement. The daily swing structure is bearish with an ongoing impulsive bearish move. Recognized patterns include a symmetric triangle and shakeout continuation. Critical levels, candle patterns, and trendline breakouts were considered for the entry decision. The suggestion is to sell at the open, with detailed entry, stop-loss, and take-profit levels, presenting a risk-to-reward ratio of 1:3.5, and an expected duration of 7 days.
TVC:USOILShort
by Optimum369
WTI Price Stability Around $75 Amid OPEC+ Cut ExpectationsWestern Texas Intermediate (WTI), the U.S. benchmark crude oil, is currently trading near $75.05 as of Tuesday. WTI prices show modest gains, supported by expectations that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) will extend oil production cuts in the upcoming Thursday meeting. Amid the recent oil price slump, analysts predict that OPEC+ might consider extending or deepening production cuts into the next year. Saudi Arabia, the world's major oil exporter, is expected to prolong its supply cuts by an additional 1 million barrels per day into the next year, while Russia may contemplate further supply reductions of 300,000 barrels per day. If OPEC+ decides on deeper production cuts next year, it could restrain the downward momentum of WTI prices. Furthermore, China is set to release National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data on Thursday. Better-than-expected data might uplift WTI prices, considering China's significant role as the world's leading producer and consumer of oil. On the flip side, the International Energy Agency (IEA) anticipates a mild surplus in crude oil production by 2024, even with OPEC+ extending cuts into the following year. Additionally, robust production from non-OPEC countries like the U.S. could contribute to price pressure. Traders in the oil market will closely monitor U.S. growth figures on Wednesday, with the annual Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for Q3 expected to rise by 5%, up from the previous 4.9%. On Thursday, U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation and China's NBS PMI data will be announced. The outcome of the OPEC+ meeting over the weekend will be crucial for oil traders, as these events could significantly impact WTI prices in USD. Oil traders will interpret signals from the data and explore trading opportunities around WTI prices.
TVC:USOIL
by oraleeogwynn1725
Oil Continues to Decline Ahead of OPEC MeetingAs the global demand for oil continues to decline, coupled with the upcoming OPEC meeting, it is crucial to approach this situation with caution and strategic planning. Over the past few months, we have witnessed a steady decline in oil prices, primarily driven by various factors such as geopolitical tensions and a shift towards renewable energy sources. This downward trend has created a potential opening for traders who are keen on shorting oil. The upcoming OPEC meeting adds an additional layer of complexity to the situation. As market participants eagerly await the decisions and actions of major oil-producing nations, it is essential to stay informed and remain adaptable to potential market fluctuations. While the opportunity to short oil may seem enticing, it is crucial to acknowledge the inherent risks and volatility associated with this trade. As experienced traders, you understand the importance of conducting thorough research, analyzing market trends, and implementing risk management strategies. To maximize your chances of success, I encourage you to consider the following steps: 1. Stay updated: Continuously monitor the latest news and developments surrounding the oil market and the upcoming OPEC meeting. This will help you identify potential catalysts that may impact oil prices. 2. Utilize technical analysis: Leverage technical indicators and charts to identify key support and resistance levels, as well as potential reversal patterns. This will assist you in timing your trades effectively. 3. Implement risk management: Set clear stop-loss orders and determine your acceptable risk levels. This will help protect your capital and ensure you have a disciplined approach to trading. 4. Diversify your portfolio: Consider spreading your risk by exploring other trading opportunities within different sectors or asset classes. This will help mitigate potential losses and increase your chances of overall profitability. Remember, trading oil requires a cautious approach and a keen eye for market trends. While the current downtrend presents an opportunity, it is crucial to remain vigilant and adapt your strategies as new information emerges. Should you require any further assistance or have any questions, please do not hesitate to reach out in the comments. . I am here to provide the necessary guidance and support to help you navigate this volatile market.
TVC:DXYShort
by bryandowningqln
OPEC Close to Agreeing Product Cut as African Countries I wanted to draw your attention to recent developments within the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) that could potentially impact the oil market significantly. It appears that OPEC is inching closer to reaching an agreement on production cuts, as several African countries have now joined forces. Over the past few weeks, discussions within OPEC have intensified, with member countries grappling with the ongoing challenges posed by the COVID-19 pandemic and its impact on global oil demand. The recent addition of African nations, including Nigeria, Angola, and Gabon, to the group's production cut efforts, has injected a new sense of optimism into the market. This collective action aims to stabilize oil prices and reduce the global supply glut that has been weighing heavily on the industry. However, it is important to approach this development with caution. While the prospect of OPEC reaching an agreement is encouraging, we must acknowledge the inherent uncertainties that still loom over the market. The success of any production cut deal relies on the commitment and adherence of all participating countries, which historically has been a challenge. Moreover, the global economic recovery remains fragile, and the resurgence of COVID-19 cases in several countries poses a significant threat to oil demand. Any setbacks in the containment of the virus could further dampen the prospects of a sustained oil price recovery. Considering these factors, it would be prudent to exercise caution when considering investment decisions. As always, thorough analysis and risk management should guide your trading strategies. While the potential for shorting oil may seem compelling given the current situation, it is essential to carefully evaluate the associated risks and consult with your financial advisor. In conclusion, the news of OPEC's progress towards a production cut agreement, coupled with the involvement of African countries, certainly warrants attention. However, the volatile nature of the oil market demands a cautious approach. As traders, it is crucial to stay informed, adapt to evolving circumstances, and make well-informed decisions based on comprehensive analysis. Please feel free to reach out if you have any questions or require further insights. Wishing you successful trading ahead!
TVC:USOIL
by bryandowningqln
Crude Oil Review and Forecast API Actual: 9.047M API Consensus: 1.467M EIA Crude Import Actual 0.259M EIA Crude Import Previous: -0.385M EIA Crude stock Actual: 8.701M EIA Crude stock consensus: 1.160M As Saudi Oil production had shrunk to nine million barrels per day in July since its last OPEC meeting with Russia to restrict supply amid signs of weakening global demand in slowing economy, Saudi, the largest oil supplier in the world had expressed its opinion on keeping the production to remain low until the end of this year. As foreseen through such decisions from the major suppliers, the most recent Crude inventory within the states has turned out to be way larger than expected. Since September of 2023, the Crude oil future TVC:USOIL plunged by $-22.35 (-23.62%) to $72.28 per barrel during the last week trading session. Slower than expected recovery in economic activities(PPI Nov 2023) adding fear of the constant weakening of the oil demand, forecasting a skeptical view towards a short term recovery of the oil demand and its price as well. The key major resistances are as follow: Top: $77.8 Mid: $75.5 Low: $72.12 The weekly upside trend is still the last hope for the Bullish traders. Once both the Four-hours and the daily candles closes below the $64-60 zone, we will then be able to finalize on such ambiguous consensus. With OPEC+ meeting pushed back to this weekends, every commodity investors focus is on the meeting report, hoping for the decision to give them the better foresight of the future of the market. The Best Futures Trading Hours in Crude: CL opens for trading on the floor, called the pit session at 9AM EST European trading closes at 11:30 AM EST The best hours for trading are the most liquid, between 9:00AM and 11:30AM Pit session closes at 2:30PM EST, when floor trading stops for the day Therefore, the best trading in the afternoon is the last hour between 1:30PM to 2:30PM EST
TVC:USOILShort
by Kim_CLSPX
sell Oil now!The light crude oil futures market, with a current daily price of $73.18, is positioned below the 50-day moving average of $84.78, indicating a bearish trend in the short term. It’s also below the 200-day moving average of $78.11, reinforcing this bearish sentiment. The price hovers above the minor support level of $72.48 and is significantly above the main support at $66.85, suggesting that there might be some level of buying interest preventing a further drop. The proximity to the minor resistance at $77.43 could indicate potential challenges in upward price movements. Considering these technical indicators, the market sentiment leans towards bearish, with room for fluctuations near the minor support and resistance levels.
FX:USOILSPOTShort
by GrandeMaster
Oil WTI (Next Moving)Hello everyone, Oil price is testing the key resistance of 73.70, which is positively influenced by the stochastic index, the price needs to be below this level for the bearish trend scenario to remain valid, which has the next target at 72.12. On the other hand, it should be noted that the confirmation of the breach of 73.70 will push the price to move higher creating a bullish wave targeting the 75.35 areas initially. Pivot Price: 73.70 Resistance prices: 75.35 & 76.47 & 78.79 Support prices: 72.12 & 70.95 & 69.53
TVC:USOIL
by Evar_Mayi
WTI bears eye a move down to $80Last week's swing trade to $90 worked out well, yet momentum ha since shifted lower. I noted in the recent COT report that managed funds and large speculators have been trimming long exposure in recent weeks, and that managed funds increased short exposure last week despite the slew of negative headlines surrounding the Middle East conflict. This also coincided with the two small bullish weekly candles, which appeared to be corrective on the weekly chart - and therfore suggests lower prices. A lower high has formed below $90 and momentum turned lower. As support has been found around the Jan/April highs, we suspect a bounce is due. And this could allow bears to fade into favourable prices below $87 - $87.50 on the assumption a breakdown is pending ahead of its move to $80. Should this be part of a larger decline, note that $75 and $70 are near the 100% and 138.2% Fibonacci projection levels on the daily chart.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by CityIndex
Oil price tests supportHello everyone,The oil price is facing negative pressure to test the 77.86 level, and the price needs to remain above this level for the bullish trend scenario to remain effective, waiting for a breach of the 79.63level to facilitate the task of rushing towards our next positive target at 81.23 . On the other hand, we note that breaking 77.86 will stop the positive scenario and push the price to turn lower, heading towards visiting the 75.49 areas in the near term. Pivot Price: 77.86 Resistance Prices: 79.63 & 81.23 & 83.41 support price: 75.49 & 73.80 & 72.12 The general trend expected for today: bullish
TVC:USOILLong
by Evar_Mayi
9
Oil Rebounds Despite Weak Demand, OPEC's Optimism DimsOil prices are rebounding following a recent dip, sparked by the International Energy Agency's (IEA) announcement earlier this week, contrasting events from Monday. Monday's decline was largely influenced by the OPEC+ monthly report, hinting at potential price increases. However, sustained crude oil recovery requires further momentum, with a significant catalyst expected by the end of November when OPEC+ convenes to forecast the first half of 2024, potentially indicating further supply cuts. Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar (USD) is weakening as recent U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) reports show declines across all segments, both Core and Headline. This convinces traders that the Fed has likely completed interest rate hikes and may even prioritize faster rate cuts. The higher crude oil prices in response to this reversal, combined with a weaker U.S. Dollar, are driving up black gold prices. At the time of writing, WTI crude oil is trading at $78.33 per barrel, and Brent crude is at $82.87 per barrel.
TVC:USOIL
by Larissa-Trader
1
OPEC Adds 2.5 Million Oil Barrels Per Day OPEC has recently made a significant announcement that they will be adding a staggering 2.5 million oil barrels per day to the global supply. This news couldn't be more opportune for those seeking to capitalize on potential gains. Now, more than ever, we have the chance to position ourselves and make a lasting impact on our trading portfolios. With OPEC's optimistic move, I strongly urge you to consider the idea of going long on oil. By embracing this initiative, we set ourselves up for success and open doors to a plethora of exciting trading prospects. Why should you consider long oil, you ask? Well, the answer lies in OPEC's strategic decision. Their decision to increase output reflects an underlying confidence in the steady surge of global oil demand. As economies rebound and international travel resumes, the upward trajectory of oil prices is not far behind. It's time to hop on board this thrilling wave and ride it towards potential profits! I encourage you to conduct thorough research into the current market trends and gather all the necessary information for making informed long oil trading decisions. Remember, knowledge is power, and armed with the right insights, we can navigate the markets with confidence and conviction. Now is the time for action! Discover the incredible potential OPEC's decision holds and let's embark on this journey together. Get ready to embrace the remarkable trading opportunities that lay ahead as we navigate the exciting realm of long oil.
TVC:USOILLong
by bryandowningqln