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Oilforecast

Crude Oil WednesdaySo as per previous forecast for Crude we are bearish bias. We have come to the weekly wick ce again and come CME or NY open I am anticipating a retracement that respects the FVG marked in the chart... Sure sometimes price might 'mowhawk' above like sense says. Be patient and wait for price to make a MSB on at least the 5min before using your entry model to target the INTERNAL SSL as your main objective. If price wants to get outlandish then the WEEKLY SSL'S are the next POI.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by IamThattrader
Monday Crude Oil ForecastWith no news injections today I would stay on the side lines. We have Daily Wick level in conjunction with a 1hr FVG which if Crude Oil is substantially bearish should respect leading upto NY open and CME open. The overall bias for me is still bearish with weekly ssl in the lower half of the charts marked with a magnet. This is the draw and what I will be waiting for / a setup to form. You do have to stay dynamic however as the Daily candle on Friday took BSL inside of a Daily FVG. This is respecting the bias. EQH's where left in its wake so if the 1hr fvg and Daily wick is closed above on the 1hr TF we should start to consider that the market has other short term plans. Stay Dynamic and if your bias doesn't match you can always stay out of the market! Money preservation is very important. GLGT- ;)
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by IamThattrader
Technicals On Crude Post FOMCWednesday we saw Crude make a nice substantial move downwards as the previous forecasts have shown. A large range day isnt normally followed by another day with a extremely large range and you can think of it like a runner running 800meters and couples minutes later having to run another race shortly after... energy needs to be recouped. I am staying bearish and would like to see the Daily FVG and PDL liquidity taken and Daily FVG to be filled/spiked to. 30min fvg CE aligns with Daily ifvg which I believe should hold price lower. Watch these levels post NY open.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by IamThattrader
Technical Forecast... Crude OilWith FOMC looming today and NFC I don't see any reason for the Weekly SSL to be taken out and price to at least stab into the Daily FVG. I will be looking out for meaning full moves into these price points during NY session today. London may offer a little chance to create some false idea we have done it but usually the move is fake and revisited. 80.50 is my weekly objective as it has been from late last week. So my trade idea's will evolve around price post retracement and then heading down.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by IamThattrader
Crude Oil ForecastSo I was looking at Crude on the weekend and I couldn't determine a clear direction for Monday. Now Monday Is almost over and we Have disrespected the Mean threshold of the Daily +OB I do expect price to be bearish and heading down towards the Daily FVG. An Good indicator on the Daily we have respected the WEEKLY ifvg CE. These things are very important to watch. Before 0930est I will post intra day targets that I suspect will be Draw On Liquidity. Bring on Tuesday!
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by IamThattrader
Why Oil Bulls May Be Right: Signs of a Tightening MarketOil prices have experienced a volatile period in recent months, with concerns about global economic growth and geopolitical tensions battling it out with signs of a tightening physical market. However, for investors with a long-term perspective, recent developments suggest a potential bull run for oil, making it an attractive asset to consider. Here's a deeper dive into why going long on oil could be a strategic move: Tightening Physical Supplies: One of the most compelling arguments for a long position is the evidence of a tightening physical market. This is reflected in key timespreads, which compare the price of oil for immediate delivery to the price for delivery at a future date. In a healthy market with ample supply, the price of oil for immediate delivery would be lower than the price for future delivery (contango). However, when the physical market tightens, the opposite happens – the price of oil for immediate delivery becomes higher than the price for future delivery (backwardation). This phenomenon, currently observed in the oil market, suggests that there is a higher demand for oil right now than there is readily available supply. OPEC+ Production Cuts: Adding fuel to the fire are the production cuts implemented by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, collectively known as OPEC+. These cuts, aimed at supporting oil prices, have helped to restrict supply and contribute to the tightening market conditions. While OPEC+ is considering easing the cuts in the coming months, the extent of this easing and its impact on the market remain uncertain. Geopolitical Instability: Geopolitical tensions around the world, particularly in major oil-producing regions, can also disrupt supply and push prices higher. Recent events, such as ongoing conflicts or threats to critical infrastructure, highlight the vulnerability of the global oil supply chain. Limited Non-OPEC Growth: While concerns persist about a potential slowdown in global economic growth, particularly in China, the anticipated increase in oil production from non-OPEC members may be less pronounced than previously expected. This could further exacerbate supply constraints and bolster the case for oil bulls. However, some headwinds remain: It's important to acknowledge the countervailing factors that could dampen oil prices. The persistent issue of inflation in the US, for instance, could lead to interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. This, in turn, could strengthen the US dollar and make oil, priced in dollars, more expensive for buyers using other currencies, potentially dampening demand. Conclusion: Despite these headwinds, the evidence of a tightening physical market, coupled with OPEC+ production cuts, geopolitical uncertainties, and limited non-OPEC growth, paints a compelling picture for a potential oil price rally. For investors with a long-term perspective, strategically going long on oil could be a profitable decision. However, careful monitoring of factors that might impact supply and demand, such as global economic conditions and policy decisions, is crucial for managing risk and making informed investment choices.
TVC:USOILLong
by bryandowningqln
CL1! (CRUDE OIL) ... BULLISHBullish. After forming a new peak high, price retraced to the +FVG. Friday's "news wick" tapped the -FVG above and quick returned the +FVG. Should the +FVG hold, expecting price to move toward the highs, as price moves from Internal -> External liquidity. The LRLR to the lower left is a draw on LQ that bears watching. I enjoy any feedback or questions in the comment section. All opinions are welcome! LIKE or BOOST this post, if you would. I would be appreciate it. SUBSCRIBE if you want to catch all of my future postings!
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by RT_Money
Oil / Crude Oil Heading into end of WeekSo we are on the Daily Not moving with much drive and lets say... obvious direction when it comes to day to day bias (Overall Bearish) I am ONLY focusing on PDH and PDL as targets today with any signal to buy or sell into the market being in a discount before I place a trade. Range day - yes To consider that Thursday's have seen good movement on Oil recently so keep this in mind. Consider also that the Daily wick CE is also aligned with the weekly ifvg. I will be looking to enter positions today as I am a scalper however anything on the 15min or above I would side with caution as prolonged moves may not be on the cards esp going on the last two weeks of PA. Also like to thank the people who Boost my posts it means a lot.
NYMEX:CL1!
by IamThattrader
Jump on the Oil Swings with Confidence!I am excited to share some positive news with you regarding the recent developments in the oil industry. According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), crude inventories took a significant dip last week, falling by a whopping 6.37 million barrels. This decline has sparked a wave of optimism in the market, with WTI prices hovering around $83 a barrel and swinging between gains and losses. As we navigate through this risk-off mood and witness the US stockpile decline, now is the perfect time to consider going long on oil. The potential for further price increases is certainly within reach, and this could be a lucrative opportunity for all of us. So, let's not hesitate and take advantage of these oil swings with confidence. Trust your instincts, do your research, and make informed decisions. Together, we can ride the wave of success in the oil market.
OANDA:BCOUSDLong
by bryandowningqln
Crude Oil WednesdayToday On the Daily I am in confliction with bias meaning that it could be changing soon if we repeat another bullish closing day. For this I have dropped down onto the 4hr TF and the most recent 4hr -ob is what I will be referencing as to Bullish or Bearish intra day PA. Scalpers Market atm If you un sure, sit still. We did close above the Daily v.i as I have mentioned in my previous posts... so my bias for 80.50 is in jeopardy but as a trader your mind must be dynamic. As I said sit still or scalp but not in the middle.
NYMEX:CL1!
by IamThattrader
Oil Traders Navigate Geopolitical Risk in Already Tight MarketThe recent escalation in the Iran-Israel conflict has cast a long shadow over the global oil market. Already grappling with tight supply and high prices, oil traders are now forced to factor in the potential for disruptions caused by the ongoing hostilities. This idea explores the current situation, potential outcomes, and analyst perspectives on the future of oil prices. A Market on Edge: Tight Supply and Geopolitical Risk The oil market entered 2024 facing a confluence of factors pushing prices upwards. Limited production increases from OPEC+, ongoing geopolitical tensions surrounding the Russia-Ukraine war, and a rebounding global economy demanding more energy all contributed to a tight supply situation. This dynamic sent oil prices surging above $90 a barrel earlier this year. The escalation in tensions between Iran and Israel adds a new layer of uncertainty to this already volatile market. Iran's direct attack on Israel marks a significant shift, raising concerns about potential disruptions to oil supplies from the Middle East, a region that accounts for roughly a fifth of global oil production. Focus on the Strait of Hormuz A key concern for oil traders is the potential for disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint through which a significant portion of the world's oil transits. Any actions that threaten the free flow of oil through this strategic waterway could send prices skyrocketing. Iran has previously threatened to close the Strait in response to heightened tensions, and recent events have heightened focus on this possibility. Futures Market Reacts, But Risks Remain Following the initial attack by Iran, oil futures prices did experience a spike as traders factored in the increased risk premium. However, prices have since eased somewhat, indicating a degree of cautious optimism that the situation might not escalate further. Despite this, analysts warn that the underlying risks remain. Analysts Weigh In: Possible Outcomes and Price Predictions Several potential scenarios could emerge from the current situation, each with its own impact on oil prices. • Tighter Sanctions: Banks like Goldman Sachs highlight the possibility of stricter sanctions being imposed on Iran, potentially leading to a loss of 500,000 to 1 million barrels of oil per day from the global market. • Israeli Military Response: Analysts at RBC Capital Markets warn that a significant Israeli retaliation could trigger a destabilizing cycle, further disrupting oil supplies and pushing prices even higher. • Limited Conflict: Other analysts, like ING, suggest that the market had already priced in the possibility of a limited attack, and the potential for a measured Israeli response could see prices stabilize or even decline slightly. • Citigroup, however, takes a more cautious approach, raising its short-term price forecasts due to the "extremely high" tensions. They estimate that a full-blown conflict between Iran and Israel could see oil prices surge as high as $100 per barrel. Looking Ahead: A Market in Flux The future trajectory of oil prices hinges largely on how the situation between Iran and Israel unfolds. While the easing of futures prices offers a glimmer of hope, the underlying risks remain. Oil traders must closely monitor developments in the region and adjust their strategies accordingly. Analysts remain divided, with some predicting further escalation and others hoping for a de-escalation. One thing is certain: the coming weeks will be crucial in determining the fate of oil prices in the near future.
TVC:USOILLong
by bryandowningqln
Oil Prices Surge on Rising Tensions in the Middle EastOil prices surged today, reaching their highest level since October 2023, amid heightened geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran. The increase comes as Israel braces for a potential retaliatory strike from Iran following a recent Israeli attack on an Iranian diplomatic compound in Syria. This latest development adds another layer of uncertainty to the already volatile global oil market. Concerns about potential disruptions to oil supplies from the Middle East, a region that accounts for roughly one-third of the world's crude oil output, are driving prices higher. Rising Tensions Fuel Oil Price Rally News reports, citing sources familiar with the matter, suggest that Israel is preparing for a possible attack from Iran or its proxies in the coming days. This follows the Israeli airstrike on the Iranian diplomatic compound in Syria last week, which was widely seen as a significant escalation of tensions between the two nations. The United States and its allies believe that a major missile attack by Iran is imminent. This perceived threat of a wider conflict in the Middle East has sent shockwaves through the oil market. Investors are concerned that any military confrontation could disrupt oil production and exports from the region, leading to a significant supply shortfall. This perception of risk is reflected in the options market, where traders are actively buying call options – contracts that give the buyer the right, but not the obligation, to purchase oil at a certain price by a certain date. The increased demand for call options suggests that many investors are anticipating a further rise in oil prices. Analysts Weigh In: Bullish vs. Cautious Analysts are divided on the potential impact of the current situation on oil prices. Some, like those at Commerzbank, believe that a direct confrontation between Israel and Iran would be a "game-changer" for the oil market, leading to a significant and sustained price increase. Others, however, are taking a more cautious approach. The International Energy Agency (IEA) released its monthly report today, downgrading its outlook for global oil demand this year and next. The report cites the ongoing economic slowdown in China, the world's largest oil importer, as a key factor behind the downward revision. Beyond the Middle East: Other Factors at Play While the Israel-Iran tensions are currently the dominant factor driving oil prices higher, it's important to remember that other factors are also at play in the global oil market. • Limited Spare Capacity: OPEC, the world's leading oil producer cartel, and its allies, known collectively as OPEC+, have limited spare production capacity. This means that if there is a disruption in oil supplies from the Middle East, it will be difficult to quickly replace the lost barrels. • Geopolitical Risks Beyond the Middle East: Recent attacks on Russian energy infrastructure by Ukraine have also contributed to the overall sense of unease in the oil market. • Post-Pandemic Recovery: The ongoing global economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic continues to drive up demand for oil, particularly in transportation sectors. The Road Ahead: A Balancing Act The future path of oil prices will depend on how the situation in the Middle East unfolds. If a wider conflict is averted, oil prices could moderate somewhat, especially if the IEA's concerns about slowing demand materialize. However, if tensions escalate and there is a significant disruption to oil supplies from the Middle East, then a sustained price increase is highly likely. Additionally, how OPEC+ responds to the evolving situation will also be a key factor. The cartel is currently scheduled to meet in May to discuss production quotas. If they decide to maintain their current production levels or even cut output, it could further tighten the market and push prices even higher. Impact on Consumers and Businesses Rising oil prices have a ripple effect throughout the global economy. Consumers are likely to see higher prices at the pump, as gasoline and diesel costs typically track the price of crude oil. Businesses that rely heavily on oil and other energy sources will also face higher input costs, which could lead to higher prices for goods and services across the board. This could further dampen economic growth, especially in countries that are already grappling with high inflation. Conclusion: A Volatile Market with High Stakes The oil market is currently in a state of high uncertainty. The rising tensions in the Middle East are a significant risk factor, but they are not the only factor at play. The interplay of supply and demand dynamics, the actions of OPEC+, and the overall health of the global economy will all play a role in determining the future path of oil prices. In the short term, oil prices are likely to remain volatile as investors grapple with the potential for a wider conflict in the Middle East. In the long term, the outlook for oil prices will depend on a complex mix of factors, making it difficult to predict with certainty where they will go from here.
TVC:USOILLong
by bryandowningqln