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Join the Excitement - Add Oil to Your Trading Watchlist!As you may be aware, recent market conditions have created a tight physical market for oil, presenting a promising landscape for traders like us. The sentiment surrounding oil has been significantly impacted by various factors, including the slow growth of the Chinese economy and the aggressive rate increases implemented by the Federal Reserve. These developments have pushed oil prices down, making it an ideal time for us to consider adding oil to our trading watchlist. Now, I know what you might be thinking - with all the uncertainties and challenges in the market, why should I consider oil? Well, my fellow traders, it is precisely during times like these that intelligent traders can seize the opportunity to make significant gains. By closely monitoring oil and its movements, we can position ourselves to benefit from potential price fluctuations and capitalize on market trends. So, I encourage you to put oil on your trading watchlist. Keep a close eye on the latest news, market reports, and geopolitical developments influencing oil prices. By staying informed and proactive, we can make well-informed trading decisions and maximize our potential profits. Remember, trading is not just about taking risks; it's about calculated risks. By carefully analyzing market conditions, understanding the factors impacting oil prices, and utilizing effective trading strategies, we can confidently navigate the market and increase our chances of success. To assist your trading journey, I recommend exploring reliable sources of information, such as industry publications, financial news outlets, and market analysis reports Collaborating and learning from others can be invaluable in refining your trading approach. Oil has the potential to offer us substantial gains, and by putting it on your trading watchlist, you'll be well-positioned to seize these opportunities. I encourage you to take action now and add oil to your trading watchlist. Stay informed, stay focused, and let's make the most of this tight physical market!
TVC:USOILLong
by bryandowningqln
Oil continues to decline or go range boundI wanted to bring to your attention the recent news from China regarding their lending standards. It has been reported that China is cutting lending standards to shore up growth, but easing was not seen as a priority while inflation continues to be elevated. I would caution against making any hasty investment decisions at this time. With inflation still a concern, it is important to consider any investment opportunities and their potential risks carefully. Therefore, I encourage you to pause on oil investing and take a step back to assess the current market conditions. This will allow you to make informed decisions and avoid any unnecessary risks.
TVC:USOILShort
by bryandowningqln
The Future of Crude Oil“We are not addicted to oil, but our cars are”, said a former CIA Chief, James Woolsey. That addiction is on the decline as we pen this paper. Love it, or hate it, but you cannot ignore it. Crude oil powers the planet. When global economy stutters, oil prices plunge. Midway through 2023, crude oil demand appears wobbly on recession overhang and shaky economic recovery in China. Meanwhile, crude supply remains tight with OPEC+ scaling back production which has been compounded by limited investment in new exploration. Over the long term, energy transition is set to fundamentally change the oil market. Consumers are shifting to EVs and renewable energy. In a befitting response, producers are reducing supply. Energy transition will be anything but a straight line. It will create many risks and present many more opportunities. This paper is set in two parts. First, we highlight key takeaways from a recent IEA report on crude oil outlook until 2028. Second, we explore hedging & trading instruments on the CME Group for participating in oil markets. PART 1: KEY TAKEAWAYS FROM IEA CRUDE OIL OUTLOOK REPORT The International Energy Agency (IEA) released Oil 2023 last week. This report describes in detail the changing dynamics in the oil market until 2028. It discusses key trends such as slowing demand growth, shifting producer growth, and the impact of energy transition on oil. Recent crises have accelerated the energy transition. With COVID-19 plus rattled geopolitics, nations are increasingly more focused than ever on energy security and independence. Ten key takeaways from Oil 2023: 1. Global oil demand to rise by 6% or 5.9M bpd between 2022 to 2028, reaching 105.7M bpd. Despite this, emissions will fall 11% with efficiency improvements. 2. Annual demand growth is expected to slow sharply in the coming years from +2.4M bpd in 2022 to just +400K bpd in 2028. 3. India and China will drive demand over the next decade while consumption among OECD countries will shrink. 4. Oil demand for gasoline will peak this year and start to reverse going forward with accelerated EV transition. Demand for transport fuels is expected to peak in 2026. 5. Jet fuel demand is still lagging 2019 levels by 13% and is expected to rise rapidly but only surpass pre-COVID levels in 2027 with expected efficiency improvements. 6. The petrochemical sector will replace the demand for transport fuels. Demand from LPG, Ethane, and Naphtha will increase by 40% from now until 2028. 7. Production growth from shale is expected to slow due to rising costs and lower prices. US shale will mature to a higher-return-lower-growth trajectory. 8. Global upstream oil and gas investment is projected to increase by 11% year-on-year in 2023, reaching USD 528 billion. This represents a rise from USD 474 billion in 2022. 9. Non-OPEC+ countries, including the United States, Brazil, and Guyana, will lead the medium-term capacity expansion plans. They are expected to contribute to a supply boost of 5.1M bpd. 10. By 2028, an additional 5.9M bpd of net production capacity will come online. The rate of new capacity building will decrease over time, aligning with projected demand growth. Following four charts help visualise the large shifts underway in the crude oil market: 1. Price Sensitivity to Imbalance: Crude oil prices are highly sensitive to imbalances between production and consumption. Over the past 25 years, consumption has been marginally higher than production. Where deficit rises, spot prices rally. 2. Consumption between developed markets (DM) and emerging markets (EM): Consumption in EM will further outpace OECD countries. Consumption across EM overtook OECD in 2013 and this trend will be further entrenched. IEA forecasts that consumption in OECD countries will hit its apex this year. Thereafter, it will start shrinking going forward. In sharp contrast, EM consumption will rise by 7.8M bpd between 2022-2028. 3. India to surpass China by 2027: Although both countries will continue to see demand increase, India will surpass China as the main source of growth by 2027. 4. Non-OPEC+ will be the primary source of growth in oil production: Production growth from OPEC+ will remain intact, while non-OPEC+ countries will be driving production growth. PART 2: CRUDE OIL DERIVATIVES CME offers a variety of instruments for producers, consumers, and investors to participate in the crude oil market. This includes WTI Futures & Options and Brent Futures & Options. Beyond these, CME also operates markets in a range of refined oil products, fuel oil, and natural gas. In a previous paper , we highlighted the 40-year history of CME Group’s WTI crude oil derivatives. With an extensive suite of derivatives on offer, CME Group enables multiple alternatives for different market participants. Futures WTI Crude is a widely used global benchmark for oil prices. It is the underlying for one of the most liquid futures contracts in the world – the CME Crude Oil Futures ("CL Futures"). CL Futures is a physically delivered contract with tight correlation to the physical oil market. Over one million contracts change hands daily, representing USD 7+ billion in notional value. Each lot of the CL Futures contract represents one thousand barrels of crude oil. CL Futures provide deep liquidity and high-quality market structure for hedgers and investors to participate in and protect against oil price volatility. Monthly contracts are available over the next ten calendar years. Front month contracts are easily tradable on CME Globex electronic order book. Longer dated contracts require engagement with inter dealer brokers for price discovery and voice-based trade execution. Alternatively, CME’s Micro Crude Oil contract (MCL) offers exposure to just 100 barrels with a maintenance margin of just USD 580 (as of 23rd June), enabling affordable participation into these markets. The micro contracts allow hedgers to manage risk exposure with greater precision. Options Monthly options are available on the underlying CL futures. They are deeply liquid with seamless order book-based trading on CME Globex. Open interest on the front month contract is >300,000 lots, representing premium of more than USD 1 Billion across calls and puts. More than 20,000 contracts are traded daily. Weekly options are used to fine-tune exposure around key events such as OPEC+ meetings and interest rate announcements. Daily options are available for CL Futures. Monthly and weekly options are also available on Micro Crude Futures. CME provides calendar spread options and mid-curve options which can be used as tactical trading and hedging tools given the seasonality of oil markets. Trading Strategies There are innumerable ways of trading the crude oil market. Most popular among them include (a) taking directional position using futures and options, (b) establishing shrewd hedges or convex trading strategies using options, and (c) trading delta-neutral calendar spreads gaining from relative shifts across the futures term structure. Previously we have covered different trading ideas in crude oil, including taking a directional position - (a) Is US Oil running low on energy? (b) Is WTI crude set to rebound? (c) Three headwinds to send crude oil into free fall , (d) Harnessing gains from mean reversion in crude oil markets , and (e) Rebounding air travel & rising China to fire up WTI crude. In our next paper, we describe the mechanics involved and illustrate the workings of popular trading strategies. KEY TAKEAWAYS In conclusion, 1. The Crude oil market is at the cusp of substantial change as energy transition powers on. 2. Change will be a constant. Impact on price will be anything but a straight line, creating both risks for the uninitiated and opportunities for the astute. 3. CME Group’s deeply liquid market with broad range of instruments enables market participants to harvest gains in risk-mitigated ways and to lock in credible reward to risk ratios. MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
NYMEX:CL1!
by mintdotfinance
1
consolidation Until Apex BreakoutGood evening, here's another view of oil im currently monitoring the 4hr chart. After the retrace from the bearish cypher pattern. Oil retested B leg and bounced back up to the supply zone. There's a apex that has formed, that is set to be completed by Late Thursday Futures session-Early Friday Futures Session. Oil is showing oversold w/ below the cloud action. I'm anticipating price action to rise into the apex til we get another final confirmed direction for this 4hr trade. There are a lot of traders looking to get into oil long near $65-67, i'm definitely a buyer if we get another chance at that level. However, I believe oil is set to reach $74 per barrel. The conclusion of the Apex trade will dictate if we go higher, or if patient dip buyers will be rewarded.
TVC:USOILLong
by moneyflow_trader
Oil continues to drop despite China rate changeThe price of oil has taken a significant hit due to China's decrease in demand. As we all know, China is an essential player in the oil market, and any rate changes can significantly impact the industry. This news is disheartening. We have seen oil prices drop dramatically recently, leaving many investors uncertain about this market's future. However, I want to encourage you not to lose hope. Despite the current challenges, investing in oil is still a wise choice. While the market may be volatile right now, we know that oil is a valuable resource that will always be in demand. The need for oil will only increase as the world grows and develops.
TVC:USOILShort
by bryandowningqln
Oil continues to drop because of these market conditionsAs you are likely aware, the oil market has been experiencing a significant drop in prices in recent weeks, and this warning serves as a reminder of the potential risks involved in short selling during times of volatility. Furthermore, we are also waiting for China's announcement of interest rate cuts, which could further impact the oil market. It is essential to remain vigilant and cautious during these uncertain times. As an oil trader, I urge you to pause and carefully consider your actions before making any decisions that could significantly impact the market. We must all act responsibly and with caution to ensure the stability and sustainability of the oil market. In conclusion, I encourage you to take heed of the warning issued by Saudi Arabia and approach the current market situation cautiously.
TVC:USOILShort
by bryandowningqln
Will oil continue with strong China refinery output?There is some exciting news about the oil market that I believe will pique your interest. As you may already know, China's refinery output grew by a whopping 15% in May, which has contributed to a surge in demand for oil. Additionally, OPEC+ decided to cut supply in May, and Saudi Arabia has announced that it will cut supply for July due to a supply deficit in times of high demand. These factors have led to a rise in oil prices, which is excellent news for those interested in oil investing. As an oil trader, I encourage you to consider taking advantage of this opportunity to invest in oil and potentially reap the benefits of this market growth. So, what are you waiting for? Don't miss this chance to capitalize on the rising oil prices. Act now and explore the world of oil investing.
TVC:USOILLong
by bryandowningqln
Can oil demand bounced back to drive pack price? As you may have noticed, oil prices have recently ticked up on bargain hunting, but demand worries continue to weigh heavily on the market. While this may seem like a good investment opportunity, I urge you to exercise caution. The global pandemic has caused unprecedented disruptions in the oil industry, and the future remains uncertain. Demand for oil is likely to remain suppressed for some time. In addition, the ongoing trade tensions between major economies could also impact the market. Therefore, it is important to be mindful of the risks associated with investing in oil at this time. While there may be opportunities for short-term gains, the long-term outlook remains uncertain. I encourage you to carefully consider your investment strategy and consult with a financial advisor before making any decisions. It is important to prioritize your financial well-being and make informed choices in these challenging times.
TVC:USOIL
by bryandowningqln
OIL dropped 1% as Fed call this draws uncertaintityI wanted to bring to your attention some recent developments in the oil and financial markets. Specifically, there are concerns about the impact of upcoming signals on the U.S. economy and monetary policy. This week, we expect U.S. consumer inflation data to be released on Tuesday, which will likely factor into the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rates on Wednesday. While the Fed is expected to keep rates steady, there is still some uncertainty because U.S. inflation is trending above the central bank's target range. As a result, markets are remaining cautious about any potential hawkish moves. Additionally, the dollar has firmed in Asian trade, putting pressure on oil markets by making crude more expensive for international buyers. I thought bringing these developments to your attention was essential, as they could impact this week's oil price. Please let me know if you have any questions or concerns via the comments.
TVC:USOILLong
by bryandowningqln
WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil, 6/12/23A two-sided framework continues through summer between 62.14 long-term support, and 82.45 long-term resistance, both regions able to contain seasonal activity.   Downside, a weekly settlement below 62.14 indicates 53.87 within several months, longer term Fibonacci support able to contain selling into later year.   Upside, a weekly settlement above 82.45 indicates 94.67 within several months, able to contain buying on an annual basis. - For Monday, 72.16 can contain buying into later week, below which 68.52 remains a 3 - 5 day target able to contain selling over the same time horizon.   A daily settlement below 68.52 indicates 62.14 over the next 2 - 3 weeks, where the market can bottom out through summer activity.   Upside Monday, closing above 72.16 indicates 77.56 within 3 - 5 days, able to contain weekly buying pressures when tested and the point to settle above for then indicating 81.44 long-term resistance within 2 - 3 more weeks.
NYMEX:CL1!
by SpecialeAnalysis
BluetonaFX - USOIL PRICE ACTION ANALYSISHi Traders, Although we are all in the middle of key fundamentals in Russia, Saudi Arabia and the US, US Oil is still trading beautifully technically. Here on the 1D chart, we are in the range zone and have been in the past few weeks or so. We first had a price gap (shown on the chart) to break the range zone and rally up to 83.49, which is our upper Vector level. After reaching 83.49, there was a pullback to fill the price gap with a very aggressive bearish push to break below the range zone, which was rejected at the 63.61 level. After this rejection, there was a close back inside the range zone. The range zone resistance is 74.72 and the range zone support is 66.88. While in the range zone, there are great risk to reward opportunities to sell at the resistance and buy at the support with stops outside the range zone depending on which side of the trade you are on. If there is a break on either side, then we are looking at our Vector levels as possible targets. A break above the range zone and we have the Vector level target at 83.49 and a break below the range zone and we have the Vector level target at 63.61. Please do not forget to like, comment and follow. Thank you for your support. BluetonaFX
TVC:USOIL
by BluetonaFX
2
OPEC+ could push up oil price as China is most important According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), OPEC+ may push up oil prices, but China remains the most essential factor in the market. As we all know, China is the world's largest oil importer, and any changes in their demand can significantly impact global prices. With their economy recovering and demand increasing, now is the perfect time to invest in oil. The IEA also predicts that global oil demand will continue to rise in the coming years, further supporting the case for investing in this market. As traders, we can take advantage of this trend and potentially see significant investment returns. Therefore, I encourage you to consider investing in oil and taking advantage of this exciting opportunity.
TVC:USOILLong
by bryandowningqln
Valuation Chart for Exxon Mobil (by The Equty Channel)Average analyst target for Exxon s higher at $127.79. Traders who want to take advantage of this may wait to enter the trade near far value of $83.64. Oil prices hare being negatively impacted by the current economic environment and there could be some near term downside ahead of greater summer demand. Those looking to invest should know that the longer term outlook for Exxon calls for earnings to experience a -10.74% CAGR over the next 5 years. Pairing that information with my knowledge of the current economic environment it suggests there could be pandemic-like draw down for the energy sector, as the global economy continues to weaken. Investors should understand that Exxon is anchored to lower prices and wait for better buying opportunities. Tune into the Equity Channel Podcast next week for a discussion of what we may be able to expect in the second half of 2023.
NYSE:XOM
by D1Finance
Will USDCAD Breakout with Western Texas Oil on the Rise?Are you ready for some oil talk? Because I've got some juicy information for you that might make your day. Rumor has it that Western Texas oil is about to rise, which could mean big things for the USDCAD. You see, the Canadian dollar is heavily tied to the oil price, and if it goes up, we might see a breakout in the USD CAD. So, what does that mean for you? It means that you might want to consider loading up on oil and potentially making some sweet, sweet profits. Now, I know what you're thinking. "But wait, isn't oil a volatile market? Isn't it risky?" And to that, I say, "Of course it is! But what's life without a little risk, am I right?" So, if you're feeling adventurous and want to capitalize on the rise of Western Texas oil, I encourage you to load up and get ready for the ride. Who knows, you might just come out on top. Happy trading!
Long
by bryandowningqln
Today's crude oil trading advice Recently, the market's expectations for future fuel demand have declined due to the heightened risk of the U.S. economic recession, and API and EIA inventories have rebounded by varying degrees, which further supports this expectation. However, the AIE International Energy Agency strongly supports crude oil demand, coupled with the expectation of a new round of production cuts by OPCE+, crude oil has begun to reverse repeatedly after falling. After falling as high as 70 in the last trading day, it stabilized and effectively rose, and accelerated after the EIA data, it once hit the first line of 73.2, and the short-term range has repeatedly remained unchanged, and the operation is still not too much to chase Today's crude oil trading advice usoil:sell@72.5-73 tp:72-71.5 Accurately grasp every trading signal, help friends who trust me, and realize freedom of wealth
TVC:USOILShort
by UnknownUnicorn55305536