USOIL.. Breakout!? what's next??#USOIL.. perfectly break our area with further drop.
It market continue his drop the. It will leads you towards downside next mentioned areas.
Don't buy until any confirmation.
Good luck
Trade wisely
Oil
USOIL Potential DownsidesHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring USOIL for a selling opportunity around 72 zone, USOIL is trading in a downtrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 72 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
Crude Breaking Down From An Elliott Wave Triangle Crude oil turned down this summer, from the upper triangle resistance trendline, as shown on our daily count, so it looks like more weakness can be coming still this year as drop from 81 unfolded in five waves while pullback to 80.00 can possibly be already completed after recent drop below $70, and now also out of a triangle. So we think that bears are in progress now and that more weakness can be coming within impulsive sell-off. Any near-term bounce can possibly stop at $72.00, a new resistance. Rise above 74 will suggest that break down failed.
USOIL / STILL CONTINUES A DOWNTREND - 4HUSOIL / 4H TIME FRAME
The overall trend is downward , until trading below turning level at 71.85 .
The significant decline in USOIL prices yesterday suggests a bearish momentum, which aligns with the observed price action falling below the critical level of 71.85. This indicates a continuation of the downward trend, making the next support level at 69.81 a logical target. If prices break this support, it would likely trigger further selling pressure, leading to declines toward 68.46 and 66.85, which are key levels of interest based on previous market behavior.
On the other hand, for a reversal to the upside, the price needs to break back above 71.85, which currently serves as a turning point. Breaching this level would signal a potential shift in market sentiment, opening the way to test the resistance at 74.24. If the price stabilizes above this resistance, it would reinforce the bullish case, paving the way for further gains toward 76.21 and eventually 77.51.
KEY LEVELS :
TURNING LEVEL : 71.85 .
RESISTANCE LEVELS : 74.24 , 76.21 , 77.51 .
SUPPORT LEVELS : 69.81 , 68.46 , 66.85 .
What I'll be looking for USOIL on next few days.The price is at a crossroads and tomorrow's data will be, as always, decisive for the decision-making that will direct the market in the coming days. I will be waiting for this most likely downward movement, but always paying attention to what the price shows at any given moment. Be careful, trade safely and stay calm. I wish you all an excellent trading week!
OIL: Day 3 short traders triggered in the marketHi everyone and welcome to my channel, please don’t forget to support all my work subscribing and liking my post, and for any question leave me a comment, I will be more than happy to help you!
“Trade setups, not movements”
1. DAY OF THE WEEK (Failed Breakout, False Break, Range Expansion)
Monday DAY 1 Opening Range
Tuesday DAY 2 Initial Balance
Wednesday DAY 3 (reset DAY 1) Mid Point Week ✅
Thursday DAY 2
Friday DAY 3 Closing Range
2. SIGNAL DAY
First Red Day
First Green Day
3 Days Long Breakout
3 Days Short Breakout ✅
Inside Day
3. WEEKLY TEMPLATE
Pump&Dump
Dump&Pump ✅
Frontside ✅
Backside
4. THESIS:
Long: Primary, market reversing at the low of the week, day 3 short is a potential signal of reversing market. No setup yet has been identified, and don't forget that even if the reversal is possible, the market is still on the frontside down move, it can give a scalp, retesting the LOW for a better setup by the end of the week.
Short: Considering the current situation, I wouldn't exclude this market keep going lower if setups for that scenario. Eventually the market will place a HOD and locked it, I would be willing to short OIL after the news
Please note that the purpose of my analysis is to help me and you hunting the best trade setup for the day, none of my technical aspects are a way to forecast any directional market movement.
Gianni
WTI Oil H4 | Overhead pressures remainWTI oil (USOIL) is rising towards a pullback resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower.
Sell entry is at 71.65 which is a pullback resistance.
Stop loss is at 72.60 which is a level that sits above an overlap resistance.
Take profit is at 68.19 which is a swing-low support.
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Will the theme of weak demand and oversupply dampen oil prospectMacro theme:
- Oil prices have declined since last week as investors expect an OPEC+ supply increase in Oct and a potential deal in Libya to resume production, possibly adding over 500,000 barrels per day.
- Weak economic data from China, including Tue's ISM Manufacturing PMI, highlighted the country's sluggish recovery, fuelling calls for more stimulus.
- Concerns over China's weak demand and the prospect of increased supply are likely to keep oil prices under pressure in the short term.
Technical theme:
- USOIL tested EMAs' area confluence with 77.00 resistance before breaking below 71.50 support to maintain a bearish structure.
- If USOIL maintains below the 71.50 level, the price may continue to decline to test 67.80 support.
- On the contrary, if USOIL can close above 71.50, the price may retrace to retest its EMA21 along with the upper bound of its descending channel.
2024-09-03 - priceactiontds - daily update - oilGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
Oil - Huge day for the bears. Both bull trend lines I had on my daily chart are now broken. 70 should be bigger resistance for now though. I expect the market to go sideways 69.5 - 71 for more time before another impulse. If bears manage to get below 69.5 tomorrow, that would bring 67 in play and really bad for the bulls. Neutral inside given range after such climactic selling but will join either side on strong momentum.
comment : Very interesting day for the bears. We broke below the triangle and are at the huge support price 70. Bulls need to step in big here or next stop is 67. If bulls come around big time and bears fail to keep it below 72, they could face a bear trap and another move back up inside the trading range. Big day tomorrow.
current market cycle: trading range (descending triangle now)
key levels: 70 - 73
bull case : Bulls are in do or die mode tomorrow. Fail at 70 and we will go 67 next. If they could generate strong buying, bears could fear a trap and exit longs. Most reasonable outlook is some sideways to up movement tomorrow. Bulls need anything above 72.
Invalidation is below 70.
bear case: Bears are now in full control of the market and they want to break below 70 and retest the December and January close/open prices around 67. Oil has not traded below 70 since June and there only for 2 days. Bears would need a big surprise again to break the 70 price. On the 1h chart there is a clean bear channel, which would go as high as 73.5 as of now. That channel is my preferred pattern for now.
Invalidation is above 73.
short term: Neutral. Expecting some sideways to up movement unless bears print a 15m bear bar below 70. Bears in control.
medium-long term: T riangle is dead. 70 has to hold or we might be in a new bear trend to 60 or lower. Will update after this week.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Shorting the double top above 74. Had to get short latest below 73 when the 15m or 1h bear bar closed.
Natural Gas waking up? Nat gas showed some poise today.
Holding green in a red market where most commodities saw negative price action.
This is impressive to see because Nat gas has a long historical trend of diverging from many commodities.
The price action today also saw a red to green reversal further emphasizing the positive potential trend shift.
Nat gas stocks were discounted today despite the stronger price action in the commodity.
We remain bullish and long UNG, our call positions in the money.
Members Daily Analysis Markets get bludgeoned!
Commodities under pressure / Nat gas strong
Yield curve still inverted.
Vix flying!
Long Bonds sniffing out recession
XTIUSD Out look Wti crude oil is has move in bearish direction and has broken its support also going to retest its broke below resistance level also 50 SMA is showing us on 1H a bearish trend and that bearish move is likely to continue
USOIL.. one n only area, hold or not??#USOIL... First market HITT our upside targeted areas and then dropped.
Now it reached near to his one of the most important supporting area 72.10
That level can change the overall acnerios of market.
Keep close it because if there is any kind of buying scnerio exist then it should be hold this area.
72.10
Keep close and stay sharp.
Good luck
Trade wisely
WTI Rises Above $84.50 Amid Summer Demand ExpectationsWith the peak of the summer travel season, marked by the Independence Day holiday this week, US oil demand is expected to surge. The American Automobile Association (AAA) projects travel during this period to be 5.2% higher than in 2023, with car travel alone increasing by 4.8% compared to the previous year, according to Reuters.
Crude oil markets are further supported by ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The Israel-Palestinian Hamas conflict continues to create volatility in energy markets. Investors are concerned that a potential cross-border spillover could involve direct action from Iran, a Hamas supporter, threatening crude oil supplies and logistical stability in the region.
The American Petroleum Institute (API) reported the steepest week-on-week decline in US Weekly Crude Oil Stocks in nearly two years. API data showed a significant weekly decrease of -9.163 million barrels, far exceeding the forecasted -150K drawdown and following the previous week’s -3 million barrel decline.
Given our forecast, we are currently considering a short position in the supply area. Typically, crude oil production for summer demand occurs in the preceding months, leading to higher oil prices before the summer season. Our seasonality analysis indicates that crude oil prices generally decline in trading from the end of July through September.
Therefore, we are now looking for a short position.
✅ Please share your thoughts about WTI in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
USOIL / TRADING BELOW FVG AREA - 4HUSOIL / 4H TIME FRAME
The overall trend is downward , until trading below FVG .
As long as prices stay below the turning level of 74.78, a decline is expected, potentially reaching the support level (1) at 73.03, and then 71.51.
However, if prices break above the turning level and close a 4-hour candle above it, the trend may shift upward, with potential to reach the resistance level at 76.18. Breaking this resistance could lead to further gains, targeting 77.52.
KEY LEVELS :
TURNING LEVEL : 74.78
RESISTANCE LEVELS : 76.18 , 77.52
SUPPORT LEVELS :73.03 , 71.51
USOIL - Retest at 76.55 Before Bullish Momentum Aims for 79.49 Market Update: Retest and Bullish Continuation Expected
The price has already reached the resistance zone at 77.95, as noted in our previous analysis. Now, the price is expected to retest the 76.55 level before resuming its bullish trend towards 79.49.
Bullish Scenario:
For the bullish trend to continue, the price should stabilize above 77.94, targeting 79.49, with further potential to reach 80.73.
Bearish Scenario:
If the price stabilizes below 77.94, it could support a decline toward 76.55 and possibly down to 73.35.
Key Levels:
- Pivot Line: 77.94
- Support Levels: 76.55, 75.35, 72.72
- Resistance Levels: 79.49, 80.73, 82.20
Today's Expected Range:
The price is anticipated to move between the support at 75.35 and the resistance at 82.20.
Oil baby, common you can do it! Do it!FA: Historically, when the Fed rate is lowered in the U.S., there is one very simple pattern - the collapse of commodities!
Of course, there are nuances related to the rate of downgrade....
Prices do not start falling at once... most often there is a time lag from 2-3 months to 8 months.
It is important to understand the following...
The USA controls oil prices (directly or indirectly - but the fact remains). Oil reserves in the states are low but last report showed very nice numbers (actual -0.8M vs forecast -2.7M)
Now catch the train of thought:
US will start a cycle of rate cuts- US has more than enough oil reserves - historically rate cuts are a drop in oil prices
TA: After aggressive movement till 4h gap, price went down as expected with first MS, then price went up to test BTS zone and made second shift (BoS) and came into bullish 4h fvg. Now there are 3 options:
1 - move higher till 4h fvg into premium , rebalance and final move till EQL at 71.4$ area
2 - fail 73.3 area from market opening with potential move downwards till EQL
3 - Breaking above 4h FVG with target at 77.55$, this option can be considered only after closing above 4h fvg on 1h+ time frame with candle's body
OIL IS WAITING FOR THE STRONGEST COLLAPSE IN THE LAST 4 YEARS !!📣 Hello everyone!
I think that a difficult time is coming for oil, my goal in 2025 is $ 36-40 per barrel of Brent
That's all for today, I wish you good luck in making independent trading decisions and profit. Please analyze the information received from me, always think only with your head!
Goodbye! ✊
USOIL BUYERS WILL DOMINATE THE MARKET|LONG
Hello, Friends!
The BB lower band is nearby so USOIL is in the oversold territory. Thus, despite the downtrend on the 1W timeframe I think that we will see a bullish reaction from the support line below and a move up towards the target at around 76.95.
✅LIKE AND COMMENT MY IDEAS✅
WTI OIL formed 1st 1W Death Cross in 4.5 years!The last long-term signal (July 09, see chart below) on WTI Oil (USOIL) was a rejection (sell) at the top of the former Triangle (Lower Highs trend-line):
The price not only broke below both the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) and the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) but also the bottom of the Triangle. The result this week is the formation of a 1W Death Cross, the first one since the COVID crash back in March 2020!
Naturally this is a strong bearish signal, which will be confirmed if the price breaks below the Higher Lows trend-line. If it does we may see a fatal market collapse, as this is a cyclical signal (observe the Sine Waves). In May 2009, it was invalid as the Housing Crisis preceded it, in November 2014 it was halfway through the sell-off of the Oil Crisis and Chinese economic slowdown and in March 2020 it came earlier relative to the previous two but still after the price broke below the Higher Lows trend-line.
As a result, this trend-line is of the utmost importance currently and only if broken (and close a 1M candle below it) can we consider a similar collapse. If it does, we expect at least $45.00, on the way to the Symmetrical Support Zone test.
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BRENT Crude Oil Bullish robbery PlanMy Dear Robbers / Money Makers & Newbies,
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USOIL : Weekly Technical AnalysisHi Traders!
Crude oil prices declined on Tuesday due to demand concerns driven by weak economic growth in China, the world's biggest crude importer.
Brent crude fell 1% to US$76.77 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate crude lost 0.1% to US$73.50/b at last look early Tuesday. Demand concerns offset impacts of the production and export halt at Libya due to a political dispute, Reuters said in a Tuesday report.
China's purchasing managers' index hit a six-month low in August and new home prices grew in the month at their weakest pace this year.
Meanwhile, Libya's National Oil Corp declared force majeure at its El Feel oil field from Sept. 2. Total production in the country had dropped to just over 591,000 barrels per day (b/d) as of Aug. 28 from nearly 959,000 b/d on Aug. 26, Reuters reported, citing NOC.
However, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries is reportedly set to proceed with its planned output boost in October regardless of demand concerns, Reuters reported, citing unnamed industry sources.
From a technical point of view, the break of the support (left wing) should confirm our bearish harmonic structure and subsequently push the price around $55. If OPEC confirms an increase in production, this element could support our idea. What do you think?
