Oil(wti)
Simple Gap Fill Idea On BLACK GOLD, WTI Market CrashWell, we have a pretty clear gap on oil. And there is a gamblers chance that this will fill sooner than later. I like the $5-7 range for a bounce but you MIGHT need to reduce leverage and hold these plays for months in this environment. However, after yesterdays moves, we might be setting up for some serious volatility in the near term. This is not trading advice.
USOIL could reverse down after ending diagonal WTI could be in wave (C), which undfolds now within an ending diagonal.
It already reached the 1.414 of wave (A).
The wave 5 should complete it.
Then the drop is expected, which first should break below trendline support.
The final confirmation is below wave 4 of (C) under 13.19
The structure of the drop will show whether it will be a retest of the low or the joint correction.
$SPY : Grinding higher on low vol even as #WTI tanks$S{Y 500 managed a minor breakout yesterday above the April high as it slowly grinds it way up to the 0.618 retrace tgt of 293. There is immediate resistance at gap above but $ES futures are again trading about .33% higher from yesterdays close.
$SPY is now above its 50-day MA and if it takes out the gap resistance then 293 target remains viable.
$WTI June futures contract crashed by 25% yesterday. Currently $WTI is trading down another 20% from yesterday.
Small Caps (iShares Russell 2000 ETF (NYSE:IWM)) rocketed up 3.96% yesterday, by far the greatest out performance in indices. When #OIL gets in gear with the equity indices bullishness $IWM small caps will likely outperform $SPY substantially.
OIL how low can you go?Historically oil has been in a down trend for almost 20yrs, along with the trend current global conditions are removing demand from the equation with average expected decreases of 2 million barrels a day! To make matters worse supply has not decreased at all! Multiple oil producing nations are continuing production regardless of decreased demand and prices, causing a HUGE glut in supply that is demanding storage of the oil in some unconventional ways.
I believe there will be more downside to the oil price in the near future, but with the continued money printing by all central banks oil just may break the downward wedge it has created and see ever higher nominal prices along with every other commodity when the money hits the fan.
God Speed!
Good news everyone!Robinhood investors are back! More than 200,000 holders now ^^
More souls to harvest.
This reminds me of videos on youtube "Bronze 5 fails" where they make fun of the bottom 10-20% of players (game is league of legends), and they get millions of views. Players are absolutely awful and it is hilarous to watch.
200k holders... 10 million robinhood users... Bottom 2%?
I don't know if those awful investors are the bottom 20% or 80%, sometimes seems like the later but I think alot of people just stay away from stocks anyway.
"Young investors rush into struggling oil ETF that isn’t even tracking the price of oil anymore"
www.cnbc.com
"“A low price handle is always a retail trap,” Davi told CNBC in a phone interview." Haha you don't say.
Those wise cheap buy investors don't even know what they are buying.
CL1! is at $10 now, a worry might be that as USO rolls to the next month it turns negative.
They used to sell half 2 weeks before the last trading day and the other half at the end I think.
If Oil turns negative we cannot short it anymore, and good buy contango profit.
I don't know how big their impact on negative prices was, probably big looking at how big of a hit they took.
CME itself ordered them to limit their size, they're now 20% in June 40% in July 20% August 20% September, which I guess is something closer to what dumb money wants. So they win in a way. In another way they don't win because they'll lose everything.
www.chicagobusiness.com
If CME made them reduce their size... They must have had a part to play in -40... And the CME even saw it coming and warned of negative prices.
Professionals have made $300 millions betting against retail... And all I made was a few hundreds...
www.cnbc.com
Owners of the fund are making a 1-8 reverse split to stay attractive to ignorant retail investors.
www.prnewswire.com
The tragedy of a fund dropped hard even when Oil bounced way up...
And guess what the 29 their price will gap way up and go to $17 wait they were aiming for Oil price? XDDD Already down to 10 bucks but I guess next months are up above 17.
Yum yum, I hope they grow. If they can keep selling the front month to buy the continuous next and hold 20% of open interest that would be great. Push 1! down, push 2! up. Come on bullbros we need strong support we can't let the bears win so keep buying at these cheap prices.
Only 2 years ago they were ridiculous opportunities when mainstreet got into altcoins, and already we have this, the difference is this scam looks like it will last a while.
Expecting more money to be poured into experienced traders pockets from retail in the future.
Not very skilled and even average investors are at high risk in those uncertain highly volatile times, sad, there is some really nearly free money to be made.
So as I was saying, bottom 20% players... Say we eliminate the bottom 5% that are disabled, this gives the bottom 25% - 5% ==> 75 to 90 IQ (with average 100) and 5% are below 75 which is disability. 20% of the pop is in the 75-90 range damn. 1/5 of voters. 10% 75-85 10% 85-90.
Not sure they should be allowed to invest. And maybe they're not the ones at all...? Kinda seems weird to imagine rocket scientists buying garbage like this.
I really don't feel sorry for them. They'll get their money back via government help that takes from the smart, and they behave like animals and are disrepectful and everything and commit so many crimes and they laugh at smart people like being smart is weird and risible.
Really interesting story. And I'm very positive about volatility, strong moves in 1 direction, contangos.
Also I wonder what happens when this ETF has to liquidate... Just go short !2? XD
On April 23, CME ordered the funds not to exceed 15,000 long futures contracts for June. For July 2020, the limit is 78,000 long futures contracts while for August it’s 50,000 and for September 35,000.
They say they have a total of 150k, if the limit in June is 15k that's 10% not 20... w/e.
Can't trust journies.
Not a huge contango here, well it's huge but I mean compared to 1! and 2!
I wonder when they are going to sell July. Should I call and pretend to be an investor 😁?
Oh I know how to convince them "I looked at the RSI and MACD and I noticed they were very oversold I also noted the price recovered congratulations"
May Robinhood holders go to 1 million! May Trump print billions to bailout US Oil producers!
🐂🐄🐮 => ⚙️grinder⚙️ => 🥩🥩🥩
Yummy!
oil, cl trading oil : looks to be getting some relief from the restriction of retail trading on the front contracts and the ETF's pushing there buying further out in the cycle but the condition that caused negative prices has not been resolved so remain leaning on the short side, looking long term for the major turn point.
$SPY : Fib 0.618 retrace at 293$SPY is range bound for the past 14 trading days. It remains above 20 EMA and hence constructive for the intermediate term. Next likely target is the 61.8 fib retrace at 293. $SPY closing below the 20 EMA may start the next leg down.
CB's still firing bazookas with BoJ today declaring unlimited buying of government bonds and removed price momentum from its forward guidance.
The European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve Bank will also publicize their monetary policy measures this week. Both these banks are fighting the devastation of economic activity in their economies and are expected to retain market supportive policies.
However #oil remains under pressure with $WTI down more than 17% and Brent oil down about 4% as of now. Not sure if this weakness in #oil will spill over to the general markets. So far the markets have taken this decimation of oil industry in stride.
CRUDE OIL (WTI) WAVE ANALYSIS AND STRONG RESISTANCE AHEAD!
hey guys,
I noticed this falling trendline on 4H and daily chart and it looks like currently, it provides the strongest resistance for the crude price.
from the 20th of February each touch of the trendline led to a strong wave to the downside and this time we may see the same thing.
next week pay attention to 19.0 - 21.0 area and look for a signal to short!
oil market is still weak so it is still reasonable to be short biased so I will try to sell from the underlined structure.
moreover, in case of a bullish breakout of this trendline, we can talk about a change in sentiment on oil market, and shift to a bullish bias!
next week will be interesting I suppose, so let's see how it unfolds!
AUDCAD TRADING PLAN Looking at the overal trend , its downward and price action has shown over and again that price reverse multiple times , when it touches trendline up , and price is currently moving in an ascending channel , i will take risk entry between 0.9000 and 0.9030 . if price breaks the channel down , i will hold the trade for a long term back to the previous low. good luck guys . manage your risk
USDCAD TRADING PLAN Following the price action seen on USDCAD , overal trend is bullish and price retraced via descending channel and breaks it to the up side , a retest signal buying opportunity for me and i will trade this plan shown . Good luck guys . Remeber to push the like button is the idea resonate with you .
OIL PRICE BEHAVIOR EXPLAINED
Yesterdays epic negative oil prices were due to the fact the CL1! Futures expiration was 21.04.2020, therefore all unsettled contracts had to undergo a physical delivery in the Oklahoma Terminal. The problem however is that the storage is 70% full already and any level above 80% is considered dangerous from the technical point of view.
There is nothing unnatural in the current situation, although the depth of the fall is indeed unprecedented. The spot and the nearest futures prices are suppressed due to massive oversupply. If you take a look at the November 2020 prices, a healthy 32 USD per barrel is printed.
What is of particular interest is that while WTI spot is negative, Brent and Urals oil benchmarks are trading at the reasonable levels, having lost just about 6%. The differential shows us that the oil market is fragmented and is not entirely global. There are hundreds of types and brands of crude oil of varying chemical composition and different quality, and the refineries are customized to deal with a particular type of oil.
While the Saudis are offering 3 month payment free oil shipments to Europe, there is a technical and infrastructural constraints on the volumes of oil that Europe can take from the unusual source.
The fed had confirmed that they will be buying junk grade corporate bonds, but they are targeting to help those who are solvent but illiquid. To quote the fed official: the fed wants the price discovery process to continue.
Given the current oil price combined with the levels of indebtedness of the shell oil producers, we will see bankruptcies as their objective long term insolvency won’t let the fed take on the risk and save them.
On a practical note: USO etf, which is a holder of near term oil futures, seems to be a decent option to go long on oil as there is only one way for oil to move now.
Shell oil producers are too risky at these price levels. Yet, as the time goes and investors flee from the default risks, and the near default stocks start trading for pennies, one might start picking those stocks.
Buy 20 of them. 15 go bankrupt. 5 left survive narrowly and get a x500 upside. One good trade.
What do you think guys? Are you among those who burned themselves badly trying to catch the falling knife of the spot oil today? Or were you the lucky shorter who will be buying a Bentley tomorrow?
Tell me in the comments.
😱 USOIL, WTI — CRASH EXPLAINED! 🤫🤫🤫👋Hello people!
This is the topic of the day.
In short video I explained basics of this price action. 👇
Why it is happening!
Can I buy Oil cheap now?
Global recession?!
Will other markets follow? 👇
Not really. But this is example of Futures trading. And new traders should understand one simple rule — Everything Can Happen!
Thanks for your attention!
Recommend to put like below this video! 👍💗🧡
Write in comments what you think :) ☁︎
Stay tuned to Artem Crypto !
Free Oil now, will BTC be free?I had to look this up several times because I couldn't believe it. I still don't believe it. What bizarro world we live in now? You are locked in your house and oil is for free.
Makes me think if the most sought after commodity in history goes to zero then what about cryptos? Yikes!
And by the way, how you do technical analysis on this? ))))