WTI US Oil clearly retracing back Since 6 March 2020 when the level been broken heavily NOW, its been under test !! which is opportunity for shorting for small journey.
So the plan:
* 20 Jun candle will be the point our point planning entry, any clear bearish candle with be my confirmation after retest back level 40-39 $
* SL will be 41.80
Two levels will be interested:
1- TP = 33
2- TP = 31
To break the above resistance it need naturally break the fear and push from below strongly to go beyond 40s and above for the long run. So we will set for longs at level of TP2 for our next trade :))
and it may go tell 30-27 $, but TP 1 & TP 2 is more than enough.
Lets see & Lets watch.
All the best
Oil(wti)
Bearish Idea on Crude Oil Consider this just an idea, IF the scenario happens, we will have an interesting setup to take, and if not, we don't do anything, and that's always good for your trading capital.
Main items we can see on the chart:
a) The price was inside a compression
b) Currently, we can see a bearish breakout of the previous structure
c) This doesn't mean that the price should start a new bearish trend. The price has been on a bullish movement since APRIL; we need confirmations first.
d) That's the reason we will wait for a clear pullback to the broken structure. IF that happens, we will trade towards the next support zone.
Oil, needs a Daily correctionStill in the same structure and we are expecting the down move to form a Daily correction something like the copy of the candles on the right.
Happy Trading, Stay Green! ✌️
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Top Ways to Trade the Range in OilOil continues to range in a sideways corrective Elliott Wave as we have noted. In the long term, it is likely to remain in the ~300 tick range between the psychologically and technically significant $40 level, and $43.42. Mid term, you can watch $41.64 and $42.48. It is likely to continue to range between these levels. The Kovach OBV has flat lined confirming the ranging behavior. The Kovach Chande will be useful to determine entry and exit points on mean reversion trades. It's an oscillator so watch for turning points to confirm entry.
OIL KEY LEVELS|STRUCTURE ANALYSIS
OIL has recovered from the dramatic events of the previous months with -40 dollar per oil contract.
Now, following the dollar demise, oil, that has a negative correlation with the dollar index has been on the rise.
The last month or so have been spent in a range below the strong resistance level in the red, that seems to mirror the current support level in the DXY. If the dollar breaks or holds will pretty much define the fate of oil, and the direction of its trading for the time to come.
Also, the rate of the global economy recovery will have its effects on the oil price too.
Anyway, whichever way the oil goes, the chart above will help you in your trading, as you now see the key levels both up and down.
Trading the breakout up is easier, as the resistance is clearly defined, while there is no precise support level for oil from below, which implies that we will have to look at the price action to get a decent short opportunity.
Thank you for reading, I hope this guide was helpful. Like and subscribe and have a nice day!
Oil struggling to find momentumFor most of my investing life, I have been a part of the upwards bull run spanning nearly a decade. Growth stocks outperformed cyclical and value, interest rates were kept low, and oil was at favorable prices. However, this year I experienced two unprecedented events: The Pandemic and negative oil prices.
Both the pandemic and negative oil prices come hand in hand
Pandemic forced everyone in their houses, forcing a build up in oil inventories. So much so, that storage was filled to the brim, and oil producers were paying buyers (what a weird statement) to take their oil – hence, negative prices.
Since that historic day, oil prices have doubled, and Brent Crude has stabilized around the $40 – $45 range. However, it struggles to find momentum getting back to the glory days of $60 and $70 a barrel for oil.
If New Zealand is to be followed, higher prices for oil may be unlikely
We are all optimists at heart – no matter our opinion, we want things to be better than expected. Better than expected results for earnings means we get a boost in a stock price. Better than expected, Coronavirus vaccine results mean we can return to a life of normal quicker. However, in the words of Prime Minister of New Zealand, Jacinda Ardern, “Things will get worse before it gets better.”
Jacinda’s statement was on the back of New Zealand recording more Community transmitted cases after 102 days of no community transmitted cases. Two things can be deduced from this:
No matter how successful you are at flattening the curve, just like New Zealand has, community transmission is inevitable
If we argue that New Zealand has relatively been the most successful in trying to get rid of the virus through their harsh lockdown measures and there still is community transmission – how is the rest of the world going to cope?
Oil isn’t just about supply
This is important because no matter how much suppliers restrict the supply of oil, there are two sides to the picture – the other side being demand. If New Zealand, after fully flattening the curve for 102 days, goes into another lockdown, can we assume that the rest of the world will follow a similar trajectory? Not to mention that countries like the United States and places like Victoria, Australia, have not been able to achieve what New Zealand has. Countries like Japan and Australia were initially praised for their low Coronavirus cases. However, they both have seen spikes due to community transmission.
That is a long-winded argument to back up the idea that Oil demand (and therefore oil prices) are inversely correlated to potential second lockdowns. And that may be the reason as to why we do not see oil push past $50 a barrel anytime soon.
Oil producers are hoping that that the Coronavirus doesn’t force a second lockdown
The International Energy Association (IEA) reported they predict oil demand would average around 91.9 million barrels a day (BPD) in 2020. This is 8.1 Million barrels a day lower than the average of 100m BPD last year. Quick maths
Average oil prices were around $64 a barrel in 2019
Currently, Brent is sitting at around $45 a barrel in 2020
Difference is $19 a barrel
$18 x 8.1 = $15.4 Billion of average potential oil revenues a day lost due to the Pandemic
That $15.4 Billion is assuming that oil prices stay at $45 and demand staying at an average of 91 Billion barrels a day this year. If a second lockdown occurs, we will see oil demand drop and the price of oil drop, causing a double blow to producers.
IEA noted that “Recent mobility data suggests the recovery has plateaued in many regions” and that the global oil supply was expected to be roughly steady in August. Assuming that demand is constant in August, we should see Brent Crude oil stay around the $45 mark. However, a second lockdown across the world as OPEC slowly increases its supply will lower oil prices.