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Oil(wti)

Oil is Still a Good Buy at this PriceThe Price of Crude Oil has recovered after an awful 2020 year. With a new president elect bringing new sanctions, there is a lot to like about oil even above $60 a barrel. The massive decrease in supply due to the shutting down of the Keystone XL, will cause a continued uptrend overtime, similar to the one we are currently seeing regardless of demand (which is relatively low all things considered). As mentioned before while oil hasn't seen a huge relative shift in demand since late 2020, with airlines and cruisers opening on a larger scale as the corona virus vaccine is distributed in many first world countries, a continued adjustment of price is likely to follow these reopenings. Furthermore, with similarities in policy between Joe Biden and Barrack Obama, Oil could be worth $90 a barrel again by 2023. This of course would be a result of a full reopening which seems clouded at the moment by new COVID cases occurring, but a direct result of this is a slow recovery of the dollar and this is what allows for this thesis to be more sensical on a short term basis. Between inflation rates and economic scarring, as well as the fact there is a new stimulus bill on the way, the US economy is receiving large amounts of money inflow thus drastically chaining the value of the US dollar, while the impact may only be a small hitch to overall recovery of the dollar, the near term liquidity in cash across the US makes has made for higher prices across the board (Gold, equities, consumer goods). Yes $90 a barrel seemed unlikely/near impossible a year ago but things have changed since then and with new policies (may they be energy friendly or not) oil is bound to see a bounce. My projection would be $75 a barrel by the end of 2021 and possibly $85-90 by the end of 2022 be that if my thesis holds true.
FX:USOILLong
by crawfordpaul
USDCAD Conflicting CluesLast Friday we had unemployment figures from both Canada and the US. Below were the results. USA - Average Hourly Earnings (YoY): 5.4% USA - Nonfarm Payrolls: 49K USA - Unemployment Rate: 6.3% CAD - Employment Change: -212.8K CAD - Unemployment Rate: 9.4% Here you can see the US reported their unemployment rate at 6.3% signaling a nice improvement, following a not so nice NFP report with only 49k new jobs. On the other ide of this pair, Canada reported a much higher Unemployment figure at 9.4%. The initial reaction with USDCAD was bullish but then as the trading session progressed this pair continued getting weaker. Some key drivers heading into this week include: Earnings, Stimulus, Core CPI (Wednesday) US Federal Budget d (Wednesday) Fed Monetary Policy Report (Thursday) and perhaps some further CAD strength if Oil Continues it's bullish path towards $60. As we know, certainty surrounding additional stimulus supports a stronger equity market and thus drives the TVC:DXY lower. On a technical basis, the pair is indicating some strange behavioral patterns such as the convergence seen here on the daily chart. RSI did manage to close below 50 heading into Friday's close. A close below 50 does indicate that we could be heading lower but if you take a closer look how the 50 level behaved with this pair, you'll many instances when that may have been a misleading clue.. Needless to say, holding below 50 is taken into minor consideration, but we should also monitor the next 2 major fib levels such as the 50% and 61.8% illustrated on the chart. Key clues regarding the direction of this pair should include keeping a close tabs on the TVC:DXY TVC:SPX TVC:NDX TVC:VIX and of course overall market sentiment. Trading Recommendations == keep bullish trading activities light with this pair considering we may still see some further bearish downside == keep shorts limited as well considering there very well could be some upside towards 1.30 ------------------------- Please don't forget to FOLLOW, LIKE, and COMMENT ... If you like my analysis:) Trade Safe - Trade Well Regards, Michael Harding 😎 Chief Technical Strategist @ LEFTURN Inc. RISK DISCLAIMER Information and opinions contained with this post are for educational purposes and do not constitute trading recommendations. Trading Forex on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Before deciding to invest in Forex you should consider your knowledge, investment objectives, and your risk appetite. Only trade/invest with funds you can afford to lose.
by Michael_Harding
1
USOIL - Bullish Bias - Target $64Bullish bias remains supported by the strong ascending channel. Until the weekly timeframe makes a decent lower low, I will continue to hold onto the bullish position with my end target set at $64 ------------------------- Please don't forget to FOLLOW, LIKE, and COMMENT ... If you like my analysis:) Trade Safe - Trade Well Regards, Michael Harding 😎 Chief Technical Strategist @ LEFTURN Inc. RISK DISCLAIMER Information and opinions contained with this post are for educational purposes and do not constitute trading recommendations. Trading Forex on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Before deciding to invest in Forex you should consider your knowledge, investment objectives, and your risk appetite. Only trade/invest with funds you can afford to lose.
TVC:USOILLong
by Michael_Harding
Oil markets seeing a brighter future24th February 2020 was when the last time we saw oil hovering around the $55.80 mark. The Oil markets were hammered in 2020, taking investors and traders back to their economics 101 classes. However, unlike traditional markets, the Oil markets have something traditional markets do not – controlled supply. OPEC+ controlling the supply of Oil OPEC+, a 24- country cartel, took drastic measures as of late to control the drop in oil price by restricting supply. The most recent supply cut by 1 million barrels a day by Saudi Arabia has pushed Oil markets to levels not seen since 24th February last year. Saudi’s unexpected move was on the back of the OPEC+ decision to gradually bring back supply to the market in January. However, the de-facto leader claims the Oil market throne The Energy Minister of the Oil-dependent country, Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman stated that “ are the guardian of the industry”, showing their influence in the Oil markets. Oil markets getting bullish recommendations from institutions Since December, Oil prices have rebounded 18% on the vaccine’s slow rollout, peaking at around $56 a barrel. With the rollout of Vaccinations, analysts at Goldman Sachs are becoming bullish on the Black Gold, stating that they predict Brent could rise to $65 a barrel by the summer of this year, bringing the timeline half a year from their previous prediction. However, they stated that “given the magnitude of the recent rally, however, markets are likely to consolidate near-term,” Given the Coronavirus situation worldwide, the demand situation has not improved to the point where it was on the 24th February, giving the price of oil the characteristic of a forward-looking stock instead of a spot looking commodity. However, if the vaccine continues to make its way around the world and demand truly starts picking up, we may see the Oil markets return back to a relative norm.
TVC:UKOIL
by BlackBull_Markets