Potential bullish rise?NZD/USD has reacted off the support level which is a pullback support and could rise from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 0.6171
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support.
Stop loss: 0.6120
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
Take profit: 0.6252
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance level that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement.
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NZDUSD
NZ dollar drifting ahead of manufacturing dataThe New Zealand dollar is showing little movement on Thursday. NZD/USD is trading at 0.6139 at the time of writing, up 0.05% on the day.
New Zealand’s manufacturing sector has been in the doldrums, as the manufacturing PMI has posted 17 consecutive declines. Friday’s PMI is expected to improve to 47 in August, up from 44 in July (a reading below 50 points to contraction). The New Zealand economy has deteriorated and in August the Reserve Bank of New Zealand responded with its first rate cut since March 2020. The RBNZ has joined the club, as most major central banks have lowered rates and the Federal Reserve is poised to do so next week.
The RBNZ will be looking to continue lowering rates, as the cash rate of 5.25% remains high and is weighing on economic activity and households. Inflation has dropped to 3.3%, which is close to the target of between 1% and 3%. The central bank meets next on Oct. 9 and there is pressure on the RBNZ to follow up with a second straight rate cut.
In the US, today’s inflation numbers were a mix. Headline producer prices rose 1.7% Y/Y in August, following a downwardly revised 2.1% gain in July and just below the market estimate of 1.8%. However, core PPI rose from 2.3% to 2.4%, below the estimate of 2.5%. Today’s PPI data didn’t budge the market pricing of a Fed rate cut, with an 87% probability of a 25-bps cut next week, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Still, not everybody is on board for small cut – JP Morgan is projecting that the Fed will deliver a jumbo 50-bps reduction.
NZD/USD is testing resistance at 0.6134. Above, there is resistance at 0.6160
There are support lines at 0.6110 and 0.6084
NZD/USD Gains Amid Risk-On Sentiment But Downside Risks RemainThe NZD/USD pair saw gains this week, driven by a positive shift in market sentiment following the release of the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for August on Wednesday. The headline inflation figure dropped to a three-year low, easing concerns about persistently high inflation in the U.S. and increasing the likelihood of a 25-basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in the near future. This risk-on mood has provided short-term support for the New Zealand Dollar (Kiwi), as investors temporarily shifted their focus away from risk-off assets like the U.S. Dollar.
Despite this positive development, the Kiwi's upside potential may be limited. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is expected to implement additional rate cuts by the end of 2024, as the country's economic outlook remains uncertain. A dovish stance by the RBNZ could weigh on the NZD in the long term, especially as market participants adjust their expectations for future monetary policy decisions.
From a technical analysis perspective, NZD/USD remains vulnerable to further downside pressure. After reversing from a key supply area (as highlighted in our previous analysis), the pair could be poised for a continued decline. Retail traders remain bullish on the NZD, but data shows that institutional players, often referred to as "smart money," have taken a more cautious approach, with lower positioning in the currency. This divergence in sentiment suggests that the current bullish momentum may be short-lived, and a bearish continuation could be on the horizon.
In summary, while the NZD/USD pair has gained ground due to improved risk appetite following the U.S. CPI release, the broader outlook remains bearish. The prospect of further RBNZ rate cuts, combined with the positioning of institutional investors, suggests that the Kiwi may face additional downward pressure in the coming weeks. Traders should watch for key technical levels and remain alert to shifts in market sentiment.
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NZDUSD Breakout And Potential RetraceHey Traders, in the coming week we are monitoring NZDUSD for a selling opportunity around 0.61800 zone, NZDUSD was trading in an uptrend and successfully managed to break it out. Currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the retrace area at 0.61800 support and resistance zone.
Trade safe, Joe.
Bearish revrsal?NZD/USD is rising towards the resistance level which is a pullback resistance that lines up with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and could reverse from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 0.6171
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 0.6234
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
Take profit: 0.6091
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that is slightly above the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
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Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
WEEKLY FOREX FORECAST SEP 9-13th USD EUR GBP AUD NZD CAD CHF JPYThis is Part 1 of the Weekly Forex Forecast for SEPT 9-13th.
In this video, we will cover:
USD Index, EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD, NZDUSD, USDCAD, USDCHF, USDJPY
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May profits be upon you.
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Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
Market Analysis: NZD/USD Trim Gains, Are Bears Back?Market Analysis: NZD/USD Trim Gains, Are Bears Back?
NZD/USD is also moving lower and might struggle to recover above 0.6200.
Important Takeaways for NZD/USD Analysis Today
- NZD/USD declined steadily from the 0.6255 resistance zone.
- There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance at 0.6155 on the hourly chart of NZD/USD at FXOpen.
NZD/USD Technical Analysis
On the hourly chart of NZD/USD on FXOpen, the pair also followed a similar pattern and declined from the 0.6255 zone. The New Zealand Dollar gained bearish momentum and traded below 0.6205 against the US Dollar.
The pair settled below the 0.6190 level and the 50-hour simple moving average. Finally, it tested the 0.6125 zone and is currently attempting a minor recovery wave. There was a move above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 0.6254 swing high to the 0.6124 low.
Immediate resistance on the upside is near 0.6150. There is also a key bearish trend line forming with resistance at 0.6155 and the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 0.6254 swing high to the 0.6124 low.
The next resistance is the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 0.6254 swing high to the 0.6124 low at 0.6190. If there is a move above 0.6190, the pair could rise toward 0.6240.
Any more gains might open the doors for a move toward the 0.6280 resistance zone in the coming days. On the downside, immediate support on the NZD/USD chart is near the 0.6125 level.
The next major support is near the 0.6080 zone. If there is a downside break below 0.6080, the pair could extend its decline toward the 0.6050 level. The next key support is near 0.6000.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Kiwi H4 | Potential bullish bounceThe Kiwi (NZD/USD) is trading close to a pullback support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 0.6132 which is a pullback support that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level.
Stop loss is at 0.6056 which is a level that lies underneath a pullback support and the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level.
Take profit is at 0.6236 which is an overlap resistance that algins close to the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 62% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 59% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com):
Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com
Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Bearish drop?The Kiwi (NZD/USD) has reacted off the pivot which has been identified as an overlap resistance and could drop to the 1st support which acts as a pullback support.
Pivot: 0.6164
1st Support: 0.6093
1st Resistance: 0.6232
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EUR/USD : Ready for Fall ? (READ THE CAPTION)By analyzing the EUR/USD chart on the 4-hour timeframe, we can see that after the drop last week to 1.10665, the price eventually closed at 1.10853. I expect that in the upcoming week, after a short initial rise, we will see further decline in EUR/USD. The potential targets for this drop are 1.10600, 1.10260, and 1.09960.
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Levels discussed on Livestream 10th September10th September
DXY: Consolidate along 101.60, could push higher to test 102 round number resistance.
NZDUSD: Sell 0.6125 SL 20 TP 40
AUDUSD: Sell 0.6645 SL 30 TP 60
GBPUSD: Buy 1.3140 SL 20 TP 60
EURUSD: Looking for a retest of 1.10 support level
USDJPY: Buy 144.25 SL 30 TP 90
USDCHF: Buy 0.8510 SL 20 TP 50
USDCAD: Sell 1.3545 SL 20 TP 60
Gold: Break above 2507 to trade up to 2520
NZDUSD H4 | Bearish Drop Based on the H4 chart analysis, we can see that the price has just reacted off our sell entry at0.6227, which is an overlap resistance.
Our take profit will be at 0.6162, a pullback support
The stop loss will be placed at 0.6253, which is an overlap resistance level.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 62% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider.You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd, previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 59% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com):
Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com
Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
NZDUSD is in the Selling DirectionHello Traders
In This Chart NZDUSD HOURLY Forex Forecast By FOREX PLANET
today GBPUSD analysis 👆
🟢This Chart includes_ (NZDUSD market update)
🟢What is The Next Opportunity on NZDUSD Market
🟢how to Enter to the Valid Entry With Assurance Profit
This CHART is For Trader's that Want to Improve Their Technical Analysis Skills and Their Trading By Understanding How To Analyze The Market Using Multiple Timeframes and Understanding The Bigger Picture on the Charts
NZDUSD - 4hrs ( Sell Trade Target Range 200 PIP ) Pair Name : NZD/USD
Time Frame : 4hrs Chart / Close
Scale Type : Large Scale
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spreading knowledge among us and to clarify the most importan+t points of entry, exit and entry with more than 5 reasons
We seek to spread understanding rather than make money
Key Technical / Direction ( Short )
Type : Mid Term Swing
———————————
Bearish Break
0.61400 Area
Reasons
- Major Turn level / D
- Channel Break
- Choch Break
- Head & Shoulder Pattaren
- Fibo 61 % Break
- Day / week low
Bullish Reversal
0.60000 Area
Reasons
- Major Turn level / M
- Pattern Target
- Fibo Golden
- Choch Zone
- Quarters Area
Levels discussed on Livestream 9th September9th September
DXY: Currently at 101.50, just below bearish trendline. If trendline broken and above 101.60, could trade up to resistance of 102
NZDUSD: Sell 0.6125 SL 20 TP 40
AUDUSD: Sell 0.6650 SL 20 TP 60
GBPUSD: Watch for break of 1.31 and reaction at support level of 1.3045
EURUSD: Sell 1.1035 SL 15 TP 45
USDJPY: Sell 143.30 SL 50 TP 120
USDCHF: Sell 0.8455 SL 30 TP 55
USDCAD: Consolidating, could retest resistance at 1.36, look for downside potential
Gold: Break above 2500 could trade to 2515
NZD/USD: Bearish Continuation Confirmed After Key USD DataIn line with our previous analysis, NZD/USD triggered our sell limit order last Friday, signaling a potential bearish move after the release of key U.S. economic data. Initially, the U.S. dollar weakened following the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change and Unemployment Claims reports, which delivered softer-than-expected results, raising concerns about the strength of the U.S. labor market. However, the dollar quickly regained its footing due to positive outcomes from the Final Services PMI, ISM Services PMI, and Crude Oil Inventories, all of which reinforced confidence in the U.S. economy.
As a result, the New Zealand dollar, like other major currencies, began a reversal, continuing its bearish trend against the strengthening USD. The recovery in the U.S. dollar has put downward pressure on NZD, confirming our expectations of a bearish continuation for the pair.
The Commitment of Traders (COT) report remains consistent with our earlier forecasts. Institutional players are still favoring a bearish outlook on the NZD, while retail traders are likely still holding onto bullish positions, creating a divergence that suggests more downside potential for NZD/USD. With these factors in mind, we are confident in our bearish stance and expect the pair to reach our take profit target in the coming days.
Technically, the price action supports our forecast, with the NZD/USD pair failing to break key resistance levels and continuing to trade within a bearish channel. The reversal we anticipated has materialized, and the pair appears poised to continue its downward movement as the U.S. dollar remains strong in the wake of positive economic data.
In conclusion, our analysis points to further downside for NZD/USD this week, and we remain focused on reaching our take profit target. With both fundamental and technical factors aligned, the outlook for the pair remains bearish, and traders should be prepared for continued weakness in the New Zealand dollar as the U.S. dollar continues to recover.
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NZDUSD - DAILY SHORT- Strong rally to top of the range for several weeks, break out of the range above the recent strong resistance level at 0.62 but lost momentum and dips back below the 0.62.
- Wednesday and thursday looked like the buyers got back in control but failed to break above and made a huge engulfing fakey, ending trading back below the 0.62.
- Bias has now turned to strong sell. Lower prices expected, best case scenario all the way down to 0.587 (range bottom)
NZD/USD BEARS WILL DOMINATE THE MARKET|SHORT
Hello, Friends!
NZD/USD pair is in the uptrend because previous week’s candle is green, while the price is clearly rising on the 3H timeframe. And after the retest of the resistance line above I believe we will see a move down towards the target below at 0.619 because the pair overbought due to its proximity to the upper BB band and a bearish correction is likely.
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