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NZDCADANALYSIS

NZDCAD (trendline hit, Possible trend reversal)Price hit .92628 which happens to be - 1) .68% FIB level from 2018 high to low, 2) Resistance level 3) Trendline. 2 scenarios can play out, the price moves higher than .92628, break of channel, 300+ pips OR drop back into the channel 300+ pips The Trigger is on Dec 19th, Q4 NZD GDP numbers come out, prev NZD GDP was a huge surprise - Previous - 2.6%, Actual 2.8, forecast was for 2.5. Recall Australian GDP was a huge disappointment on DEC 4th with a print reading of .3 versus .6 expected. On the Canadian side - the unemployment dropped to 5.8 to 5.6 and 94k jobs created - OIL prices, which looks like its stabilizing, if Oil moves higher, more confirmation of downward move. - Canadian WTI-WSC spread rapidly decreasing from a high of 55 to 14.75, avg for the year is 35. (alberta cut production) NZ-CA 10 year spread bottomed on 4th OCT - at .03 and moved higher since then to 40, still around the average. To summarize - IF NZD GDP is a big miss, heavy short, top is in place, downtrend begins. IF NZD GDP takes a big leap, then look for breakout IF NZD GDP is normal then as is follow PA.
by amoktan