NVIDIA (NVDA) Price Analysis with Buy/Sell areasWelcome back to yet another (stock) technical analysis using 4 different EMA's, fibonacci retracement, trendlines and key levels. Basing my buy areas on confluences of these.
I will sketch two scenario's of what I think the price will do based on technical analysis. This last part is important, because I want to remind you that this is a technical analysis disregarding fundamentals. You should always keep an eye the fundamentals of stocks together with a technical analysis.
The first scenario is that the 207 key level will break, after which price (I think) will bounce off the green area, based on the fib, key level, trendline and 50 EMA. After this, I think price will break the purple area, when it does, you can trade the break retest of this area.
The second scenario is when the 207 area will not break. Then I anticipate the price to react good to the 207 key level when it gets paired with the 3rd touch of the trendline. After this I think there is a sell area at the 250 psychological paired with the 3rd touch trendline, this area is highly speculative but depending on what the price continues to do I think this area is interesting in both scenarios.
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Nvidia
INTC going 200$+++Intel can only go up from here, with all the hype stocks like AMD and Nvidia for example just relentlessly going up and are way overpriced at this point, you are overpaying for growth.
All you need to do is look at INTC 1999/2000 hype run up and 20+ years later the stock never made a new all the time. While the stock never made a new all time high i strongly believe now is the time for Intel.
With the new intel GPUs that are coming out early next year they will take market share from both Nvidia and AMD, the growth potential is almost unlimited for them as they start from zero.
CPUs are still not as good as AMD ones but Intel is still on 14nm process node while AMD is using TSMC 7nm and that is main reason they are ahead but the cap is not that huge, Intel is still on very old 14nm process node and are able to compete still with AMD just fine.
*Massive cash flow
*Intel 10nm is coming online soon.(It will be equal or better then TSMC 7nm)
*Intel is investing between $60 billion and $120 billion on brand-new fab complex.
*Intel got a alliance/deal with IBM(yes that boring IBM the research company) to use the new revolutionary 2nm process, IBM’s 2nm process offers greater density (more transistors per square millimeter) and lower power than TSMC’s 3nm(This news is so massive yet none talks about it).
*All Intel competitors are fabless and are using TSMC to produce the chips...even Apple. With China being unpredictable right now, tension with Taiwan would have unknown consequences. Nvidia, AMD, Apple etc all those companies would have no way to make the chips anymore, yes crazy right?
www.tomshardware.com
www.forbes.com
NVDA In Danger??Today I contemplated closing 75% of my long in NVDA as it is well in profit and I have much leeway right now to walk away and let a small amount ride. The reason for this is because NVDA has broken both a key upward sloping trendline as well as the .786 Fibonacci level on the daily and 4 hour time frames.
This does not have to be the end of the road for NVDA but it is not a bullish sign either to say the least.
It does appear, however, that Nvidia could be in for some short to midterm consolidation before regaining the needed momentum to break back above all time highs.
A few things that are good from a bulllish perspective is that a week ago we broke out of downward sloping resistance and managed to break and close fully above the .786 Fibonacci level not to mention we set higher highs in the process of doing that.
For this reason I am remaining in my long.. but there is a further issue. The issue is that we are in the process of putting in a macro lower high and this could be very bearish for the asset if it does not find bids this week and at the very least break back above $203. If not, a retest of the $198 price level could be very likely.
This entire range from $198 all the way down to $194 could be a great re-entry area for a long as there is much bullish confluence in this region which should provide for ample support.
It is this reason that I am remaining in my long. I will not be looking to add to my position should the price come down to the aforementioned price levels.. I will, however, remain patient by waiting and seeing if any bids come in at the green zone I have showing on the chart. If this green zone does not hold, I will be 75% out of the trade should we break and close a daily candle below the 0.5 fib level at $194.
Tomorrow's open and close on the daily chart could be telling. Keep in mind though, that the week has just started and NVDA has plenty of time to make up for the major, yet small ground it has given up to start the trading week.
NVDA [Update]So far on NVDA we are still up nicely on our original idea and as we predicted NVDA is now putting all of our fib levels to the litmus test as it finds itself right in the middle zone of the entire fib retracement.
I expected the .383 to be properly tested before liftoff and so far it is holding up.
If it can continue to hold, NVDA will find itself breaking out once more as a bullish falling wedge is now being painted on the 4 hour timeframe.
One could debate if this is valid or not due to the breakdown out of its lower trendline, and that is fine. Because what we are most interested in is the upper trendline of the falling wedge as it appears to be serving as resistance on the price.
This is not something to ignore as supply lines like this can often be a warning of an impending bearish downtrend if price continues to fail when touching it.
So for this reason I am moving my stop losses up to around $189.79. The reason for this is because of not only the bearish trendline over our head, but because a breaking to the downside of the .382 fib level with a confirming candle on the 4 hour could mean a retest of much deeper levels at or around the bottom of the falling wedge or our .236 fibonacci level. So closing my position in profit and buying right back in at a discount is what I will be looking for in the near future.
In the meantime, however, I am still in my long but I am monitoring closely. NVDA will need to get moving and break the red trendline but ultimately put in a higher high in price by breaking the .618 fibonacci level over our head but that discussion will be kept reserve for a future post or update.
NVDA: You must pay attention to these key points now!Hello traders and investors! Let’s see how NVDA is doing today!
Since our previous study, last week, I told you that I wasn’t convinced of anything on NVDA, and this purple trendline was one of the reasons. Today, NVDA is retesting it for the sixth time , but unlike a week ago, this time we have more chances of defeating it ( link to my previous analysis is below this post, as always ).
What NVDA did can be considered a sideways correction , and the stock spent the last week accumulating its energies before another breakout. By defeating the purple trendline, the $ 198.80 is the next target, and a key point seen in the daily chart.
The $ 198.80 is a pivot point seen in the daily chart, and if defeated, it’ll lead NVDA to the ATH, or even above it. Honestly, I think NVDA should spend more time accumulating, but if the momentum is strong (like we see on AAPL), it’ll be very hard for it to drop.
On the other hand, if we lose the $ 187.41 we’ll create a bearish structure , and seek the 38.2% Fibonacci’s Retracement again.
Either way, the volume is still quite low, and we must see it increasing in the next few days.
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NVDA Buy Levels [Post-Stock Split]So things got a little weird today at the open with the stock split as many traders checked their holdings to see NVDA down -70% today.
Once it adjusted and all of the speculative traders jumped ship, Nvidia found itself spending most of the day battling at our .236 fib level, which is now $185 approximately. For now it has found itself above this level after bouncing beautifully off of the floor of the fib extension at around $178.
As always, I am waiting patient for a full body candle close above our .236 fib level on the 4 hour.
Keep an eye on the open tomorrow, as this asset is still most likely trying to regain its footing after what has been a very volatile past 2 weeks.
It is in my opinion that as long as we hold where we are currently, entries for a long is fair game. HOWEVER, beware that if you open below this level tomorrow, or confirm a 4 hour candle close below this level, all bets are off and you would be wise to keep patient and allow the price action to play out as risk below the .236 becomes difficult to size up.
If you are long, make sure you have either stops or at the very least price alerts set up for $185 incase it breaks.
Considering the wicks we had today both to the upside and downside on the 4 hour chart, things are very indecisive at the moment so I am ok with simply continuing to monitor.
Also, if this level does break down and confirm, a retest of $178 would be in store. From a trader perspective, if there is a retest it will be important that it bounces and does not come back to it again anytime soon. Too many retests of $178 would put this fib retracement at risk of being violated.
On the flipside, respect and support of the current fib near $185 (.236 fib) could be the buy opportunity patient traders have been waiting for.
Below you will find my price levels after the stock split I am looking at. This was found using the same method as in the pre-stock split idea.
The same buy ladder from that idea can be applied here as well. The beauty of this is that the buy ladder works better on the way up than it does when price is falling down.
$178
$185
$190
$194
$198
$203
$210
PLZ USE ALERTS AND OR STOP LOSSES
Weekly Watchlist! 7/26 - 7/30Here is what stocks we are going to be keeping an eye on this week!
NASDAQ:WDAY
We are looking for a move here over $242 with target levels of $243.50, $246, and $248
NASDAQ:ATVI
Like how we are holding the 200sma just under trend resistance, we are looking for a move here over $92 for a run into earnings with a target of $93, $94, and $95
NASDAQ:NVDA
Looking for a break of resistance here over $197 with targets of $198, $199, and $200
NYSE:SQ
Looking for another break of trend resistance here for a move over $268 with targets of $270, $272, and $276
NVDA - NVIDIA short timeThe chart possibly ended its 5 wave rally and now it's going into a corrective wave. We should take maximum profit from it.
To make the trade more secure, we need to divide it into at least 3 entries. 1st entry to close at first target. Second entry to go at the end of the blue arrow that indicates the end of (C) wave. The 3rd entry will be held until the chart reach the wave IV of a smaller degree, although as a second wave the price has the potential to fall even by 61.8%. This is the case where we need to wait for a part of correction to form, or to make fundamental analysis
Write down in the comments your opinion about the stock decline
NVDA: You must keep an eye on these key points!Hello traders and investors! Let’s see how NVDA is doing today!
First, it did trigger the pivot point at $ 190.20, and it is doing higher highs/lows . What’s more, NVDA recently found a support at the previous bottom level around $ 178, and this bullish reversal structure is appearing in a very good moment.
Right now, NVDA is doing a pullback to the $ 190.20, which previously was a top, and now, it is supposed to become a bottom in the short-term, according to the Principle of Polarity . The 21 ema is quite close to this point as well, making it a dual-support level.
Of course, the situation is not that easy now, as we still have the purple trendline , which connects the previous 3 top levels, and could work as a resistance in the future again.
The daily chart gives us more clues:
The support at $ 178 is quite close to the 38.2% Fibonacci’s Retracement ($ 180), and it is easy to see now why NVDA did a bottom over there. This is a very strong support level.
What’s more, NVDA did a lower high/low in the daily chart, indicating weakness in the mid-term. Now NVDA is fighting to break the 21 ema, and it is losing, so far.
If the pivot seen in the 1h chart gets frustrated, and NVDA loses today’s low tomorrow, the mid-term trend will prevail over the bullish reversals pattern seen in the short-term, and we might seek the retracements again, even the 50% retracement, at $ 171. The 61.8% retracement at $ 163 is the last support level it could retest in a stressful scenario.
Honestly, I don’t see NVDA crashing, but don’t see it flying either. Either way, it is important to look at the bullish structure in the 1h chart, and Fibonacci’s Retracements in the daily chart for now.
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Thank you very much!
Crackdown on Bitcoin miners. Will this mean a drop in NVDA soon?NVDIA has been on a strong bull trend and we are now seeing a double top and possible retracement. If this goes down to the 50% Fib level, we are likely to see $480 followed by a sideways / consolidation period before it goes back up again. Maybe wait for the big dip to get into this one!
Let me know what you think....
NVDA Buy LevelsThe color coded support levels shown on the chart are the levels I am currently watching on Nvidia should an extended pullback occur.
The levels were found using a simple, multi-fibonacci retracement method based on previous swing highs and swing lows that allowed me to spot local fib levels. I will possibly make a post on this one day as an educational resource.
There is a lot that will go into this so there is no way I can cover everything in this one post. So check for updates in the future.
In the meantime, we will start with the most bearish scenario and that would be below the .236 fib level at around $715.
I personally do not trade below the .236 but there is no rule that exists that you shouldnt. Its simply my personal preference not to.
This is the basement floor where many traders would choose to place limit orders with hopes that they hit. This is the area where the largest potential gains are made.
PLEASE NOTE: Nvidia does not HAVE to reach these exact prices. This is just simply a point of reference for one to borrow. Please apply your own analysis to come to your own, best conclusions.
With that being said, my favorite fib levels to buy are primarily whatever level the current price is closest to. Which means the .786 level near $812 is the level that should get your attention as of right now.
As you can see, the price wasted no time dropping to this level and one should note that this was not random. The first level that price usually pauses at when pulling back is the .786 fib level. And if this level holds on larger time frames, that would be the first signal of a possible bullish reversal/continuation. If this level holds on the weekly, bears will be at risk of losing momentum, and bulls could retest the all time highs again.
On the flipside, if NVDA breaks the .786 fib level ($812) then that would be the first true bearish signal. And although this is a daily chart, we are truly looking for closes below/above the fib levels on the WEEKLY.
The lower range of each fib level are the buy areas. The tops of the fib levels are the expected rejection areas.
You can see the price at each corresponding level as follows:
$838
$812
$791
$777
$762
$744
$715
To the left of the candle sticks on the chart you will see an example of how to ladder buy simply using the fib levels. It is fairly common sense but one should feel free to tweak it and apply their own strategies as long as risk management is being practiced.
Check back in the coming days on this and if you have made it this far reading this please leave a like!!
Weekly Outlook! 7/12 - 7/16Here is what stocks we are looking at for the coming week! As well as a recap of last week's video!
NYSE:CAT
Looking for another swing high off of lows. Looking to get a confirmation for the break of it's current bullflag pattern over the $220 level.
NASDAQ:NVDA
NVDA has been range bound the last two days between $806 and $788. We will be looking for a range break in either direction of those levels
NASDAQ:ROKU
Nice dip here after the recent run we have seen. Looks like we got a break of resistance and will look to catch the next move higher over the $434 level
NYSE:YUM
Nice trend resistance break on Friday, looking to catch a move over a break of $119 for continuation
NASDAQ:EBAY
Nice bullflag pattern forming here at highs, will look to take the next move up after a break of the $70 level