Nvidia decides to keep us guessingThe last time I updated Nvidia I stated that below 459 there is a higher chance we decline closer to $400.
Read my last update here.
Price did decline to breach $459 and we have subsequently moved to the upper trading ranges but have yet to make a new high. Below the previous all-time high of approximately $506 I still favor a move down closer to the $400 area.
Nvidia
🔝 Nasdaq-100 Index: The House of Rising SunThe History is happening right here! ✨
Nasdaq-100 Index NASDAQ:NDX just set its Best First Half in almost 40 years since inception in 1985, with amazing 38.75% year-to-date return in 2023.
Among all semi-annual results, Nasdaq-100 gain this year is second only to the year of 1999.
With historical 61.44% gain in the second half of 1999, glory times shortly ended. Just two months later in the 1st quarter of 2000 index peaked at 4816.15, for the next 15 plus years.
As 38.75% surge in 2023 still far away from the All-the-history record 61.44% in 1999, stocks feel this year like they are, as the great 1960's band "The Animals" said, in the House of the Rising Sun. They won the race, and closed the 1st half of the year with solid gains.
Let's take a look and congratulate the winners of the race! ✨
🥇 The 1st place - Nvidia Corporation, 184.84% YTD return NASDAQ:NVDA
Nvidia is the clear winner in the AI arms race so far. It's the company that appears best positioned to dominate the burgeoning sector, and more and more investors continue to wake up to the potential of artificial intelligence.
Nvidia effectively provides a one-stop shop for what customers need to drive their AI ambitions. They control their entire ecosystem on both hardware and software, similar to Apple, and that puts them years ahead of competitors.
🥈 The 2nd place - Meta Platform Incorporation, 133.66% YTD return NASDAQ:META
Meta Platforms stock jumped this year after the tech giant's first-quarter earnings beat Wall Street's expectations. CEO Mark Zuckerberg also touted the tech giant's AI plans, and pledged to keep costs low as the owner of Facebook, WhatsApp and Instragram continues its "year of efficiency."
In a post-earnings call, Mark Zuckerberg hailed the company's AI efforts and vowed to keep a lid on spending. The Meta founder and CEO said AI recommendations had led to people spending over 24% more time on Instagram since it launched TikTok rival Reels.
🥉 The 3rd place - Tesla Incorporation, 120.88% YTD return NASDAQ:TSLA
Tesla's stock price has been rallying non-stop for months - and Wall Street is starting to ponder whether that breakneck surge might've made the EV stock a little overvalued.
Shares have jumped 57% since late April, with investors cheered by CEO Elon Musk signing charging deals with Ford and GM, while Big Tech stocks have also soared more broadly thanks to the rise of AI as an investment theme.
The stock just has settled its best two-quarter advance since 2020.
But Barclays, Morgan Stanley, and Goldman Sachs have each questioned that valuation over the past two weeks, with all three banks slashing their Tesla rating from "buy" to "hold".
Unprecedented dominance
It's historically rare for a handful of stocks from the same sector to make up such a large part of the S&P500 ( SP:SPX ).
The last time the five biggest companies by valuation accounted for a quarter of the index's total market cap was indeed the 1960s.
Beating SP500 with SP500: Outperformed The Index Its Own WeaponsHi, all.
Hope you're doing well.
Looks like a good time to share a summary of a post I made almost a few years ago about SP500 stocks, 23.02.2022. Back then, I relied solely on technical analysis. Fast forward two years and the majority of my picks have proven to be quite accurate, showcasing the effectiveness of technical analysis in investing.
While the SP500 gained around 10%, my selected stocks outperformed with an impressive 35% gain. Out of the 75 stocks I handpicked, 51 are currently in profit, 12 are in the red, and the rest didn't reach enough close to the zone or haven't made a breakout yet. So 63 has triggered and it will give a winning percentage of more than 80%. I'm okay with that.
These results show the importance of technical analysis in making informed investment decisions. It's a clear example of how understanding market trends and patterns can lead to substantial gains, even when ignoring company fundamentals.
These results challenge the notion that picking individual stocks is fairly difficult to beat market averages. Instead, it demonstrates that with the right skills and a strategic approach to technical analysis, it's not only possible but achievable.
I'm excited about these outcomes and look forward to further refining my strategies in the ever-evolving world of finance.
Results are calculated by purchasing with an equal amount of money from every area that I drew and holding these until today (started to make this post quite a few days ago so it can add a bit of variation).
If the price falls through the box and comes back afterward then I always calculate from the middle of the box that purchase price. If I had done it at the best possible price then these results would have been significantly better. I did it the optimal way, you will see yourself...
1. AAPL - a load-it-up type of thing has worked out nicely. Used previously worked resistance levels. If the stocks performing well and the market cap is big then these levels can help you to get on board.
Current profit 42%
Before:
After:
2. ADBE - came down quite roughly but it found support and back above fairly quickly.
Current profi 67%.
Before:
After:
3. AMD - round nr., strong resistance level becomes support and the climb can continue.
Current profit 80%
Before:
After:
4. AMZN - split. Came down from high prices to the marked levels and those who were patient enough got rewarded nicely.
Current profit 34%
Before:
After:
5. ANET - retest of the round nr. worked perfectly, as a momentum price level, after the strong breakout.
Current profit 143%
Before:
After:
6. APTV: Came down quite sharply and it will take some time to start growing from here, if at all.
Current loss -2%
Before:
After:
7. AXP - firstly the round nr. 200 worked as a strong resistance level. Another example is to avoid buying if the stock price approaches bigger round numbers the first time. Came to a previous resistance level and rejection from there…
Current profit 34%
Before:
After:
8. BIO - in general I like the price action, kind of smoothly to the optimal zone. It might take some time to start growing from here but also fundamentals need to look over.
Current loss 13%
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After:
9. BLK - kind of flawless. Worked perfectly.
Current profit 48%
Before:
After:
10. BLL - a perfect example of why you should wait for a breakout to get a confirmed move. No trade.
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After:
11) Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) - Buy the dip. Again, as Apple, a big and well-known company - all you need to do is to determine the round numbers and small previous resistances that act as support levels.
Current avg. profit from two purchases 28%
Before:
After:
12) Cardinal Health (CAH) - the retest isn't as deep as wanted but still a confirmed breakout and rally afterward.
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After:
13) Ceridian HCM Holding (CDAY) - found support from the shown area but not much momentum.
Current profit 33%
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After:
14) Charter Communications (CHTR) - technically speaking it is a quite good price action but kind of slow momentum from the shown area. So, it can take some time if the fundamentals are ok.
Current loss -14%
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After:
15) Comcast Corp. (CMCSA) - got liquidity from new lows, pumped up quickly, and is currently fairly solid.
Current profit 16%
Before:
After:
16) Cummins (CMI) - close one, got rejected a few points before my shown area from the first role reversal (old resistance becomes support)
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After:
17) Salesforce.com (CRM) - perfect. 50% drop, strong horizontal area, and mid-round nr did the work.
Current profit 74%
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After:
18) Cisco Systems (CSCO) - worked and slow grind upwards can continue.
Current profit 18%
Before:
After:
19) Caesars Entertainment (CZR) - not in good shape imo. It has taken too much time and the majority of that is sideways movement.
Current loss 4.8%
Before:
After:
20) Devon Energy (DVN) - inside the area and actually active atm. Still, now I’m seeing a bit deeper correction than shown.
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After:
21) Electric Arts (EA) - waiting for a breakout. It will come and it will be strong afterwards!
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After:
22) eBay (EBAY) - inside the area but yeah, looks like not much power there.
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23) Enphase Energy (ENPH) - got a breakout, got a retest, and did ~70% rally after that! If you still hold it, as I do statistics, then…
Current loss -30%
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After:
24) Expeditors International of Washington (EXPD) - kind of worked but didn't reach. No trade.
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After:
25) Meta Platforms (META) - one of the best examples that you want to be in the markets and technical areas should give you the confidence to make your move! Run through the area but very quick and consistent comeback.
Current profit 86%
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After:
26) FedEx (FDX) - I love the outcome of this. Very solid price action and multiple criteria worked as they should. Perfect.
Current profit 65%
Before:
After:
27) First Republic Bank (FRC) - firstly got a solid 30 to 35% gain from the shown area but...we cannot fight with the fundamentals.
Current loss 99%
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After:
28) General Motors (GM) - slow but has started to show something.
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After:
29) Alphabet (GOOG) - load it up 3.0, a good and strong company, and use every previous historical resistance levels to jump in.
Current avg. profit after three different price level purchases 32%
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After:
30) Genuine Parts (GPC) - rallied quite strongly without a retest but now has started to approach my shown level.
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After:
31) Goldman Sachs (GS) - really close one but still count it in.
Current profit 33%
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After:
32) Hormel Foods (HRL) - quite bad performance here. Two trades, two losses.
The current loss combined these two together is 35%
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After:
33) Intel (INTC) - one of my favorites again. Looks like the zone is in the middle of nowhere but the rejection came exactly from the box with good momentum in it.
Current profit 64%
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After:
34) Ingersoll Rand (IR) - sweeeet!
Current profit 87%
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After:
35) Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) - the trendline, 50% drop, strong horizontal area. Ready, set, go! Sweeet 2.0 ;)
Current profit 62%
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After:
36) Johnson Controls International (JCI) - the retest worked quite nicely but did not have enough momentum. So probably it moves sideways for a while.
Current profit 14%
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After:
37) Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) - Buy the dip and we had only one dip :)
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After:
38) CarMax (KMX) - the area is strong but not enough momentum in it so I take it as a weakness.
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After:
39) Kroger Company (KR) - breakout occurred, retest also but nothing more to say.
Current loss -6%
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After:
40) Lennar Corp. (LEN) - strong resistance level becomes strong support.
Current profit 133%
Before:
After:
41) LKQ Corp. (LKQ) - haven’t reached yet but still, it should be solid.
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After:
42) Southwest Airlines (LUV) - no breakout = no trade! Don’t cheat! Your money can be stuck forever but in the meantime, other stocks are flying as you also see in this post. If there is a solid resistance, wait for the breakout and possibly retest afterward!
Before:
After:
43) Las Vegas Sands (LVS) - channel inside a channel projection ;) TA its own goodness!
Current profit 60%
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After:
44) Microchip Technology Incorporated (MCHP) - nice one!
Current profit 67%
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After:
45) Altria Group (MO) - got a decent break but lacked momentum after that and sideways movement can continue.
Current loss -11%
Before:
After:
46) Moderna (MRNA) - still inside a quite wide zone but nothing too exciting from my point of view.
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After:
47) Morgan Stanley (MS) - the first stop has worked, and got some movements.
Current profit 27%
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After:
48) Microsoft (MSFT) - Load it up 4.0, buy the dip has worked again with well-known stock.
Three purchases and avg. return from these are amazing 54%
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After:
49) Match Group (MTCH) - if I look at it now then I don’t really like this chart at the beginning but it is what it is and we accept the loss.
Current loss -57%
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After:
50) Netflix (NFLX) - almost the same as Meta. Came quite sharply but the recovery has been also quick. Another proof that you want to be on the market if these rallies occur.
Current profit 62%
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After:
51) NRG Energy (NRG) - wait for the retest
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After:
52) NVIDIA (NVDA) let this speaks for itself!
Current profit 200%
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After:
53) NXP Semiconductors (NXPI) - usually the sweet spot stays in the middle of the box, and also as I look over these ideas quite a few have started to climb from the first half of the box.
Current profit 72%
Before:
After:
54) Pfizer (PFE) - yeah, got rejected after it came to retest the area the first time to around 30% but after that - slow death.
Current loss -29%
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After:
55) PerkinElmer - “after” is EUR chart but you get the point.
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After:
56) Pentair (PNR) - worked correctly, 50% drop combined with the horizontal area, easily recognizable, and the result is quite okay.
Current profit 65%
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After:
57) Public Storage (PSA) - slowly has fallen to the zone and first impressions are on the chart already.
Current profit 20%
Before:
After:
58) PayPal (PYPL) - the area just lowers the speed of dropping :)
Current loss -29%
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After:
59) Qorvo (QRVO) - it can be a “late riser”, let’s see.
Current profit 24%
Before:
After:
60) Rockwell Automation (ROK) - sweet, worked again like a charm.
Current profit 52%
Before:
After:
61) Rollins (ROL) - after posting it didn’t come to retest the shown area. Being late for a couple of weeks. Worked but cannot count it in, the only thing I can count is that my bias was correct ;)
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62) Snap-On Incorporated (SNA) - same story!
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After:
63) Seagate Technology (STX) - firstly it came there! Look how far it was, the technical levels are like magnets, the price needs to find some liquidity for further growth and these areas can offer it. I like this, and the climbing can continue.
Current profit 42%
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After:
64) Skyworks Solutions (SWKS) - one of the textbook examples of how trendline, 50 drop, round nr. and strong horizontal price zone should match. A bit slow but oohhh boy I want this will play out. I have talked about this idea in several presentations and it is kind of a perfect example of how these criteria can determine the strongest zone on the chart!
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After:
65) TE Connectivity (TEL) - came down, and got a rejection. “Simple” as that.
Current profit 34%
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After:
66) Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO) - mister Ranging Market. Nothing but last month got a bit of volume from the liquidity zone and let’s see what it can do.
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After:
67) Trimble (TRMB) - currently up but the price action signs that it can stay ranging for some time.
Current profit 19%
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After:
68) Tesla (TSLA) - made a split. Have been successfully recommended many times after that here and there but two years ago was these price levels and..
The current profit after two purchases is 16%
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After:
69) Train Technologies (TT) - dipped the box and off it goes!
Current profit 91%
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After:
70) Take-Two Interactive Software (TTWO) - I like this analysis a lot. Worked as a clockwork.
Current profit 60%
Before:
After:
71) United Rentals (URI) - scam :) have some closest calls counted in and here is another one.
Current profit 128%
Before:
After:
72) Waters Corp. (WAT) - came to the box as it should be slow and steady. As the plane came to the runway.
Current profit 33%
Before:
After:
73) Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM) - another escaped winner. Didn’t come down to retest my retest area so, missed it.
Before:
After:
74) Xylem (XYL) - nice to see that the majority of these areas are working very nicely!
Current profit 49%
Before:
After:
75) Autodesk (ADSK) - slowly, slowly but worked and climbing from the shown area.
Current profit 42%
Before:
After:https://www.tradingview.com/x/qRJaz6rI/
As we summarise this journey through the past two years of market analysis and stock picking, it's clear that the power of technical analysis has been a guiding force in achieving remarkable results.
As said, these chartings are made solely based on technical analysis but if you add here a bit of fundamentals then these results can be much better. Probably would have avoided some losses. If possible, always use both analyses. Let this post prove to you that technical analysis works in most cases and helps you find good entry points. These areas act like magnets. Sooner or later the price will still reach these levels. I like this saying a lot and I will end my post with it: fundamental analysis tells you what to buy, technical analysis tells you when to buy!
Hopefully, you liked this post, learned something from it and if it isn't too much to ask then which one was your favorite?
Take care & happy trading,
Vaido
Nvidia Wycoff AnalysisA: Find a new resistance, volume was high too
B: Test and failed the resistance
C: Attemp to break but it won't even be near
D: Fail at the support zone
E: Break heavily with a high volume
F?: It could be a pullback to the break to immediatly continue failing to the next support zone
Jump on Nvidia’s Pullback: The AI Powerhouse Set for a Comeback
After rising more than threefold, Nvidia (NVDA) stock is pulling back, as uncertainty rises, and many investors take profit.
However, while it may be a while before shares triple in price again, much suggests that this top AI chip play could again perform strongly in 2024.
With this, instead of cashing out/sitting on the sidelines, you may want to enter/add to a NVDA position instead.
Why Enthusiasm is Sliding for This AI Chip Winner
Nvidia is far and away the leading supplier of chips for the generative artificial intelligence market. Booming demand for these chips has resulted in sales rising by triple-digits on a year-over-year basis, with sequential sales growth set to keep rising by a double-digit pace.
Earnings have increased by an even greater extent. Analysts forecast Nvidia’s earnings this fiscal year (ending January 2024) to rise nearly sevenfold compared to FY2023. So then, instead of having continued enthusiasm for NVDA stock, why is the excitement simmering down? Two uncertainties keep weighing on shares.
The first concern is uncertainty surrounding interest rates. If the Federal Reserve lowers rates next year, that’s good news for both chip demand, and for Nvidia’s valuation. However, if rates remain at elevated levels, this could slow down a rebound in non-AI chip demand, affect future AI-related chip sales growth, and limit the extent in which NVDA’s earnings multiple could re-expand.
Technical Analysis
Nvidia Stock movement is indicating a head and shoulder trend with the trough and crest touching the resistance and support level.
NVDA is trading near the top of its 52-week range and above its 200-day simple moving average.
Investors have been pushing the share price higher, and the stock still appears to have upward momentum.
AMD Surges After Launching AI chip that Could Challenge NvidiaAMD unveiled its MI300X chip, an AI-centered semiconductor designed to challenge Nvidia's global market dominance.
Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ: AMD) shares jumped in early Thursday trading after the semiconductor group unveiled an AI-focused chip for the data-center market, which it says could be valued at as much as $45 billion over the coming years.
AMD, which in June pegged the total addressable market for data-center chips at around $30 billion, launched the MI300X chip, designed to support generative-artificial-intelligence technologies. And it unveiled a next-generation semiconductor focused on supercomputing, the Instinct M1300A.
The MI300X, analysts say, could challenge Nvidia's NVDA dominant H100 graphics-processing-unit chip in the large-language-model AI market. Last month, AMD said the new chip could generate $400 million in fourth-quarter sales while the broader family of MI300 semis are expected to see sales of more than $2 billion over the whole of 2024.
Large language models "continue to increase in size and complexity, requiring massive amounts of memory and compute,” CEO Lisa Su said during last night's launch event at the company's Santa Clara, Calif., headquarters. “And we know the availability of GPUs is the single most important driver of AI adoption.”
Advanced Micro Devices shares were marked 2% higher in premarket trading to indicate an opening bell price of $119.12 each. Such a move would nudge the stock into positive territory for the past six months.
AMD last forecast fourth-quarter sales in the region of $6.1 billion, plus or minus $300 million, with gross margins of around 51.5%. That outlook following a mixed third-quarter-earnings report that showed big gains in PC revenue had partly offset the ongoing decline in gaming.
"While AMD acknowledged that its software can be further improved, it has reached the point of being 'good enough' for volume deployment," said KeyBanc Capital Markets analyst John Vinh. He reiterated his overweight rating on the stock following last night's launch event.
"We're encouraged that AMD has released a competitive AI GPU within a massively fast-growing (total addressable market), with endorsements by many high-profile customers," he added.
Technical Analysis
The RSI (14) is at 56.52, indicating a bullish momentum. The MACD (12,26) is at 0.68, suggesting a positive trend. AMD is trading near the top of its 52-week range and above its 200-day simple moving average.
Investors have been pushing the share price higher, and the stock still appears to have upward momentum. This is a positive sign for the stock's future value.
Shorting NVDA. Try #2!If at first you don't succeed....
Traders,
You know I tried this once already. Got stopped out for a loss and honestly, I've been annoyed since. So yeah, this is kind of an revenge trade. Not a good example of how you should trade kids. But again, this is all for your entertainment anyways as I've said all along.
Anywho. Here we are at the bottom of my channel. Patent retest!
Also, I've redrawn the H&S neckline in a way that does not show confirmation on the daily. That right shoulder looks wonky (sometimes it does), but still appears to be forming. Am I a product of my own confirmation bias. Probably. Time will tell.
30%+ Potential profit on this trade.
$460 Entry
$317 Target
$480 SL
7/1 RRR
Def not fin advice.
LFG!
Stewdamus
HPE and Nvidia Team Up for Full Stack Generative AI SolutionHewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) and Nvidia, two industry giants renowned for their cutting-edge technologies, have joined forces to build a groundbreaking full stack generative AI solution. This collaboration is set to revolutionize the way we approach AI, opening up new realms of possibilities and transforming industries across the globe.
By combining HPE's expertise in high-performance computing and data center solutions with Nvidia's unmatched prowess in AI and accelerated computing, this dynamic partnership promises to deliver an all-encompassing AI infrastructure that is both powerful and efficient. The full stack generative AI solution will empower businesses to unlock the true potential of AI, enabling them to develop innovative applications, drive operational efficiencies, and gain a competitive edge in today's fast-paced market.
This remarkable collaboration signifies a major milestone in the AI landscape, as it brings together the best of both worlds. HPE's deep-rooted experience in delivering scalable infrastructure solutions, coupled with Nvidia's groundbreaking GPU technology, will create a synergy that is simply unparalleled. Together, they will pave the way for groundbreaking advancements in AI research, development, and deployment.
Now, you may be wondering, "How can I be a part of this exciting development?" Well, as an astute trader, you understand the value of seizing opportunities at the right time. Nvidia, being at the forefront of AI innovation, is poised for remarkable growth as a result of this collaboration. Therefore, I encourage you to consider adding Nvidia to your portfolio, as it has the potential to benefit significantly from this game-changing partnership.
As we witness the birth of a transformative full stack generative AI solution, it is crucial to stay ahead of the curve and invest wisely. By positioning yourself strategically, you can potentially reap substantial rewards in the coming months and years.
So, let's embark on this exhilarating journey together! Take a moment to evaluate the potential of Nvidia and consider adding it to your trading portfolio. As always, thorough research and analysis are key to making informed decisions, so ensure you carefully assess the opportunities and risks involved.
If you have any questions or require further information, please do not hesitate comment below. I am here to assist you in any way I can.
Wishing you an exciting and prosperous trading journey!
ARE WE ARE ABOUT TO WITNESS A TRAIN WRECK FROM THE FRONT ROW?This evening I was watching TV and I get an email alert. The title of email, “Wall Street’s 2024 SP500 forecasts are out, are you positioned?”, … and to my surprise (not really) the future looks bright for the US stock markets next year. I immediately thought to myself…What did I click on to get this garbage? LOL Truthfully, I didn’t think that…I eagerly went to my office to open the email to see what firms were peddling what train wreck of a guess, and to what extent would market participants buy into this publicity stunt. If you’re like me and you’re either directly affiliated with the US markets or just a hit and run reader of online financial news, you probably get emails just like these. Obviously, these emails are click-bait for readers of market news…it worked on me.
I practice a form of market analysis called Elliott Wave Theory. To be brief, this form of analysis charts the price action that market participants create each of every time they buy and sell. The buys and sells are obviously based on their positive or negative sentiment within any particular market. The patterns tend to be repeating, and fractal in nature, from the intraday to the very long-term time durations. Based on their repeating nature these patterns can be very accurately forecasted long into the future. This form of analysis does not take into account market and economic news or events. The basis for this theory created by RN Elliott in the 1930’s is that news and external events are not causal with the respect to the pattern and its aftermath. A great example of this would be the last two earnings releases for Nvidia (NVDA) in both the August and November releases. Each release far exceeded analysts’ expectations on both revenue and EPS, but the resulting stock price behavior was to decline 20% and 10% respectively. However, in both cases those types of stock price behaviors could have been forecasted in advance.
On November 30 I posted this article,“ Is NVDA Headed to $467 " Later in the trading day, NVDA followed through as forecasted. This was not a function of magic, just EWT analysis and good ole' fashion math. Now for full disclosure, the rally off the October 27th bottom in the markets was not entirely unanticipated I just did not expect to the extent it has rallied and I had deemed that potential alternative pathway showing a rally, low probability . Now, having rallied from late October to last Friday, I would not get too excited about that sort of price action persisting. More on that when I update followers next time.
Back to the 2024 SP500 targets. From Bank of America to Goldman Sachs, not one firm is projecting the SP500 to be down next year. In fact, they forecast modest growth in neighborhood of 5% to 10%, with some other firms as high as 20% higher from current levels. The above chart is the SPX cash market from inception. You can see with arrows how I am forecasting the future price action. I have written on this subject matter ad nauseum. Nonetheless, I wonder if these latest SP500 targets from Wall Street firms are elevating market participant expectations, only to set up a pending train wreck. Are we willing participants?
Is Dow Theory Dead?
Dow Jones Transportation Index
Do Small Caps no longer lead?
Small Caps Index
I'm reminded of this true story.
In 1849 the Texas county of McClennan thought it was a good idea to approve an event for the (Missouri, Kansas, Texas Railway) known as KATY for short, railway executive George Crush to market two steam engine trains of his deliberately colliding head on into each other. The event was highly marketed and touted as free to attend. However, to get to the area of the event in rural McClennan county, you had to buy a ticket on one of George Crush’s trains for $3.50. In today’s dollars that fare would be $125. On the day of the event, a whopping 40,000 people lined up to witness the spectacle. Ironically, the sheer total human population in attendance on that day, rivaled the total population of Texas’ largest city at the time. The main event got underway with the two trains chugging towards each other at top speed and collided in spectacular form,…right up until the steam engines of both locomotives exploded, and jettisoned debris in such violent form, that scores of people were injured, and 2 people actually died that day. Between the event promoters, staff, county officials, and each and every soul that made a conscience decision to attend such an event on that day, apparently not one thought, this could be the outcome. In hindsight the result seems both obvious in its destructive and harmful potential, while simultaneously being inexplicable why no one thought it was a bad idea.
Are there two metaphorical locomotives running towards each other now in the economic world? Is the CNBC’s of the world, and Wall Street analysts of today with their lofty 2024 SP500 predictions nothing but a bunch of latter-day George Crushs’? Saying its free to attend their publicity stunt, but transport will cost you an arm and a leg.
Then you literally have to pay up. Time will tell.
Best to all,
Chris
Above 459 we go up to new highs, below high chance we see $400We're getting alternation between an almost indistinguishable wave 2 and this current wave 4. However, if we breach 459, then we have declined lower than .50% of wave 2 and 3, and although we have NO overlap, the chances are high we are no longer dealing with a wave 4.
Therefore I will keep this simple, above 459 and we go higher to complete this larger pattern. Below 459 and I'm 75%/25% on price heading to 400 in a larger wave 4 flat.
Nvidia should be on it's way to $467Currently I have NVDA starting a c-wave of iv down to 467 minimum. If at anytime price breaches the $449 area, chances become very high, NVDA may have topped. Under that scenario, I expect price to find support in the $400 region and to hold that area and rally, could mean that is our minor a-wave bottom.
Suffice to say, if you own NVDA, raising some cash at these levels seems prudent.
How much better can things get? Potential double-top.After reporting earnings earlier last week, shares of NVIDIA have been struggling to march higher, and if you wonder how this is possible despite astounding results, here is some food for thought. The tech giant has experienced an unprecedented rally of more than 360% since October 2022, and it is no secret that the revolution in the AI sector has highly contributed to this fact. It did not take long until the talk in the news was all about large corporations investing hundreds of billions of dollars to fund artificial intelligence research and about AI disrupting various fields and reshaping the world as we know it.
With this narrative playing out, the tech giant delivered outstanding performance for the second quarter of fiscal year 2024. Its GAAP-calculated operating income was up by 1,263% YoY, net income by 843% YoY, and diluted earnings per share by 854% YoY; then, on top of that, in the third quarter of fiscal year 2024, operating income increased by another 53% QoQ, net income by 49% QoQ, and diluted earnings per share by 50% QoQ.
While these are indeed incredible results, more often than not, when things are starting to be too good, the situation starts to beg the question of how much better they can get. Therefore, it is also important to consider the broader economic context. There is an apparent slowdown in multiple sectors outside of technology, like manufacturing, real estate, cargo transport, etc. These other sectors could eventually ripple into the tech industry, impacting overall economic growth and investment. Moreover, replicating the astonishing success of the last year indefinitely is improbable. Market saturation, increased competition, and potential regulatory changes are just a few other factors that could contribute to the normalization of growth rates.
Regarding technicals, RSI, Stochastic, and MACD have started to decline in the past few days (on the daily chart), accompanied by the formation of a potential double-top pattern. As these developments are bearish in nature, we are growing increasingly suspicious about the upcoming move in the stock. Consequently, we will be attentive to NVIDIA’s performance in the following days and weeks.
Illustration 1.01
Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of NVIDIA and simple support/resistance levels derived from peaks and troughs.
Technical analysis gauge
Daily time frame = Slightly bearish
Weekly time frame = Slightly bearish
*The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
When to sell NvidiaNamaste!
Nvidia was one of the stocks which benefited hugely by the AI (Artificial Intelligence) boom.
It corrected around 68% from its all time high during October 2022. Looking back at that time, I thought it as some serious happening because Meta was down around 76% , Netflix 77% , Tesla 72% , Amazon 55% , etc.
I knew these were a good buys and probably sold at 100 or 200% gain . Off course I couldn't buy because I am Indian and trading in US markets is complicated.
But now, I think it is time to book the profits in Nvidia at $490 .
Key reasons affecting my decision:
1. The stock is overvalued.
2. AI hype is cooling off.
3. I am expecting a recession in the year 2024.
4. My bearish Instinct .
Other things anyone can do:-
1. Sell at above mentioned prices and buy back at $347, which will result in around 30% in opportunity profit.
Remember, I have nothing to win and nothing to loose. Any gain or loss arising out of my analysis is yours . Consider your financial advisor before taking any steps.
Disclaimer: This article should not be considered as an investment or trading advice. The analysis is based on my understanding and experience in the markets. You must do your own analysis and/or consult your financial advisor before investing or trading.
New bottom in Q1 2024In recent weeks, it appears that market makers have managed to generated significant hype around positive news to get the market excited.
However, it looks like they immediately capitalize on this momentum and sell off their bags.
A good example of this behavior is when NASDAQ:NVDA last week reached alot of liquidity above $500, only to then dump.
If we align the speed of the market pullback with the resistance line indicated in yellow, the possibility arises for a new bottom in Q1 2024.
Nvidia Is Still Bullish💸Hello Traders,
My name is Philip and I am just an average stock and indices trader with over 4 years of trading experience💻
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➡️In today's video, I will analyse Nvidia for you🫡
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➡️Let me know your opinion about today's analysis in the comments below👇
➡️I will only enter a trading position if ALL of my trading/entry criterias are met!
Keep your long term vision!
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NVIDIA is at balance. Here are my long/short scenariosWhen you trade the Model of the Medianlines/Pitchforks, you know now that price of NVDA is at balance.
Why?
It's at the Center-Line.
From here Chances for up or down are equal weighted
Details?
Well, price closed above the CL. This is bullish.
Price usually pull back to it.
Then it should continue to the other extreme, which is the Upper-Medianline-Parallel.
If it fails it's target and instead open and close below the CL, we have a short at hand.
OK, so how could we play either side?
LONG:
After the pullback to the CL, I watch for a upside continuation. I want price closing above a previous candle. Stop/Loss goes below the CL.
Profit target is the U-MLH.
SHORT:
After a open/close below the CL, I'm short immediately and my stop is above the highest Bar above the CL.
Profit target is the L-MLH.
Save trading4all
A Deep Dive into NVIDIA's Financial SuccessNVIDIA , a leading player in the world of accelerated computing and artificial intelligence, has once again demonstrated its financial robustness and strategic foresight in the technology sector. The company's recent financial report for the third quarter ended October 29, 2023, reveals a remarkable growth trajectory, emphasizing NVIDIA's significant role in the evolving landscape of computing and AI.
Record-Breaking Financial Performance
NVIDIA's revenue for Q3 reached a staggering $18.12 billion, marking an impressive 206% increase from the same period last year and a 34% rise from the previous quarter. This growth trajectory is not just a testament to the company's innovative products and services but also reflects the increasing demand for advanced computing solutions across various industries.
The GAAP earnings per diluted share stood at $3.71, a more than twelve-fold increase from last year and a 50% increase from Q2. The Non-GAAP earnings per diluted share were even more striking at $4.02, showcasing nearly six times growth from the previous year and a 49% increase from the preceding quarter.
Data Center Dominance
A significant contributor to NVIDIA's success is its Data Center segment, which reported a record $14.51 billion in revenue. This figure represents a 41% increase from Q2 and an astounding 279% increase from the same period last year. The introduction of innovative products like NVIDIA HGX™ H200 with HBM3e memory and the integration of NVIDIA Spectrum-X™ Ethernet networking platform in servers from major tech companies like Dell Technologies and Hewlett Packard Enterprise have been pivotal in this growth.
The Generative AI Revolution
NVIDIA's CEO, Jensen Huang, attributes the company's robust growth to the broad industry transition from general-purpose to accelerated computing and generative AI. The company has positioned itself at the forefront of this revolution, offering comprehensive solutions like AI foundry services and NVIDIA AI Enterprise software. These offerings are rapidly being adopted by various sectors, including large language model startups, consumer internet companies, and global cloud service providers.
Future Outlook and Strategic Moves
Looking ahead, NVIDIA expects its Q4 revenue to be around $20.00 billion. The company continues to innovate and expand its product line, evident in its recent launches in the gaming sector and professional visualization. For instance, the introduction of DLSS 3.5 Ray Reconstruction for enhanced gaming experiences and the release of TensorRT-LLM™ for Windows reflect NVIDIA's commitment to staying ahead of technological advancements.
Diverse Growth Areas
Beyond data centers and gaming, NVIDIA has made significant strides in professional visualization and automotive sectors. The company's collaboration with Mercedes-Benz to use NVIDIA Omniverse for creating digital twins of manufacturing and assembly facilities exemplifies its influence in professional visualization. In the automotive sector, NVIDIA's partnership with Foxconn to develop next-generation electric vehicles underscores its strategic vision.
Conclusion:
NVIDIA's latest financial report is not just a display of numbers but a narrative of a company that is effectively navigating the rapid advancements in technology. With its continued focus on innovation and strategic partnerships, NVIDIA is not just achieving financial success but is also shaping the future of computing and AI. As the era of generative AI takes off, NVIDIA stands as a pivotal player, driving growth and innovation in a world increasingly reliant on advanced computing solutions.
NVIDIA Incredible strength long-term. Is $1100 realistic?NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) gave us a great bottom buy entry last time (October 22) we made a call on it and invalidated the Head and Shoulders pattern (see chart below):
This time we look at it on the 1W time-frame where it is on the 4th straight green weekly candle, approaching the Higher Highs trend-line. The 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level and the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) provide Support, while the 1W RSI is on a Bearish Divergence (Channel Down) but the 1W MACD is about to form a Bullish Cross.
The last we had the above combination of indicators, was February 16 2021. At the time, the 1W MACD failed to make the Bullish Cross and the stock pulled back to the 1W MA50 but when it formed the Cross on April 12 2021, it broke above the Higher Highs. What followed was a 7-month rally to the -0.618 Fibonacci extension.
As you can see, the symmetry between the two fractals is striking. When the MACD Bullish Cross takes place, we would assume a similar rise and the -0.618 Fib target will be at $1100. Is that in your opinion realistic for Q3 2024?
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