For #Nvidia, $154 is not a dream#Nvda 1D chart;
Continues its 8-month steady rise from the beginning of the year to today
It had given the first bearish signal with its divergence in the $140 zone, which is the Ath level.
As of the $90 level, the bullish pattern started and the target points are as in the chart.
NVDA
NVDA Share Price Holds Above Psychological LevelNVDA Share Price Holds Above Psychological Level
On 10 July, we noted strong selling pressure above the $130 per share level. Since then, the price has dropped by approximately 22%. Losing more than a fifth of its market value seems like a serious issue, but it’s not as bad as it might appear, especially with emotions running high amid fears of a potential US recession.
Technical analysis of the NVDA chart today shows that:
→ The price is forming an upward trend (shown in blue). The false breakout of the upper boundary on 20 June mirrors the false breakout of the lower boundary of the channel on 5 August (as indicated by the arrows).
→ It’s important to focus on the interaction between the price and the psychological level of $100. On 5 August, when the price dropped below the lower boundary of the channel, it fell below this round number. However, by the end of the week, NVDA's price had recovered (along with many other stocks in the US market). It’s reasonable to assume that retail traders, who had earlier in 2024 bought NVDA shares on margin due to the prospects of AI development, rushed to liquidate their long positions when they saw the price dip below $100.
Thus, the area around the psychological level of $100, reinforced by the lower boundary of the channel, proved to be an important support last week – from the 5 August low, the price has already risen by 15%, approaching the $116 level. This could act as resistance, as it represents the 50% retracement from the decline between the arrows.
Meanwhile, forecasts remain positive. According to a TipRanks survey of 41 Wall Street analysts, the average price target for NVDA is $144 within 12 months. Is this realistic?
It’s possible that by early autumn, the bulls could shift market sentiment in their favour – much will depend on the fundamental backdrop. Nvidia’s Q2 report is due on 28 August. Recall that after the Q1 report, which was published on 22 May, NVDA's price surged past the $100 psychological resistance with strong momentum. It’s likely that on 28 August, this level will continue to serve as support.
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NVDIA BULLS! DON'T FART TOO LOUDLY. IT'S TOO STUFFYhe AI boom is reaching the sort of lofty heights that characterised history’s great bubbles, from the Dutch tulip mania to the dotcom bust at the turn of the millennium. Investors have now determined that Nvidia alone is worth more than the entire annual output of Spain. Add in the tech companies expected to profit most from the AI revolution — Nvidia along with Amazon, Apple, Alphabet, Meta, Tesla, and Microsoft — and the so-called Magnificent Seven are together valued at more than the stock markets of every other country on the planet. The American stock market’s spectacular performance over the last year, up more than a fifth, has been driven almost entirely by these seven companies.
We’ve been here before, many times. New technologies often produce bubbles — railways in the 19th century, automobiles and radios in the 1920s, the internet in the 1990s and now the AI boom, which was triggered by Open AI’s launch of ChatGPT late in 2022. Driving any bubble is the same conviction that the new technology will revolutionise the economy, combined with the fact that nobody can be sure just how it will do that. So narratives of transformation become self-sustaining, as the stock’s rise draws in ever more investors eager to join the ride, creating a self-propelling upward cycle.
In time, all bubbles burst, earlier or later.
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Intel Corporation (INTC) Stock: A Investment Opportunity ?Intel Corporation's recent earnings report has raised some concerns, but there are several reasons to remain optimistic about INTC stock.
Despite a challenging Q2, Intel is strategically shifting production to its high-volume plant in Ireland, positioning itself for long-term gains.
The company's focus on cutting-edge chip manufacturing and AI advancements highlights its commitment to innovation.
Moreover, Intel's diverse portfolio, including the promising Gaudi AI products, provides a solid foundation for future growth.
With strategic cost-cutting measures and a strong financial position, Intel is poised to rebound and deliver value to its investors.
SPX are we bullish or bearish? The S&P 500 closed the weekly firmly.
Finally putting in a high volume reversal, has the SPX bottomed here?
One thing is for sure we are still putting in higher highs & higher lows on the weekly time frame.
Until we see the markets give us that lower weekly high its still a tough market to short.
We think about the decline in semis and megacaps after earnings...all eyes will be on NvDA near end of month.
The markets have a strong chance at staying buoyamt into NVDA earnings.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade 8-9 Noon Update : Possible SqueezeThis quick update covers SPY, Gold, Bitcoin, IWM, and NVDA.
Boy, what a change in price range compared to the last few weeks. Looks like ht markets have settled into a deep sleep today.
I still believe the Breakaway pattern could really make a move in the last 30 to 40 minutes of trading. A solid squeeze potential is available to price if the short trading pressure starts to unwind before the weekend.
Watch how this plays out at the end of the day, and remember that next week should see solid rallying trends.
Have a great weekend.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 8-9 : Inside Breakaway VolatilityToday's Inside Breakaway pattern requires price to open within the body of yesterday's candle. Therefore, we need to see price move below $530.65 before the 930 opening bell in NY.
If this happens, then the Inside Breakaway pattern is ready to play out, and I believe we have a much stronger chance (about 75%) for the price to rally higher today (leaving only about a 25% chance for a broader market pullback).
The Current Flag formation on the SPY (and other major symbols) may present an extended range of volatility today and on Monday.
I'm suggesting today's Inside Breakaway pattern will resolve to the upside. But I'm also warning there is about a 30% chance the markets will FLUSH-OUT to the downside today before resolving back into a Bullish price trend.
The reason I'm making this suggestion/warning is because of the Flag pattern that is currently playing out. The closer we move toward the Flag Apex, the more likely we will see broader price volatility and bigger price swings.
It is very common for price to become extremely volatile near Flag Apexes. This happens because the price has been coiling into the Flag Apex range for many hours/days and potentially weeks. That energy, when released, usually prompts a fairly large volatility range.
Today, I warn that the $524-525 should act like a make-or-break level for Bullish or Bearish trending.
I cover the SPY, Gold, Bitcoin, IWM, and more in today's video.
Remember, I'm trying to teach you techniques you can use for the rest of your life while showing you what I see on these charts.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
Retest of the Lows, Rocket Ride up from Here?Here we are. Just you, me, and a strange serious of price action events with NVDA...
So, how do we read this in the short-term future?
I always start with a Daily Chart (1D). MACD and RSI are overdue for a little pop towards the upside. After a retest of the lows, NVDA bounced off what we can now call Support at 97.
Our initial price targets still stand. In the short-term, 511. After that, the next leg up is 514.
Today, the market manipulators started to release the recovery news. Keep in mind, it's Ms. Market's job to ensure growth and stability in the market. Jobless claims were presumably "not as bad" as they previously stated. Right, okay.
Anyway, who cares? We're not trading feelings, we're trading options.
Moving forward, the market closes higher swinging into Friday as we use volatility as our friend to secure profits with expirations further out. I'd call this phase, "safe swinging".
Let's see how the market reacts EOW. Thanks for tuning in.
NVDIA Is this -35% correction enough to be a buy opportunity?NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) completed a -35% decline from its top on Monday's Low and after a short rebound, it's consolidating. Even though this is the strongest correction it had since the late 2022 market bottom and it almost touched the bottom of the long-term Channel Up that started in October 2022, there might be room for some more downside before the next long-term Bullish Leg.
It is important also to note that the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) is still intact as the 20-month Support and the 1D RSI broke the 35.00 level (almost oversold) on Monday. All the above suggest that NVDIA hit a new long-term buy level/ Support.
The Bullish Divergence though on its 1D RSI (Higher Lows against the price's Lower Lows) may indicate the opposite than it normally does. The reason is purely on NVDIA's last such pattern, which basically led to the October 13 2022 bottom.
As you can see, that correction continued the price's Lower Lows despite the ongoing RSI Higher Lows, until it completed a -44% correction. That suggest that there might be room for another -9% decline before the stock breaks above its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and starts the new Bullish Leg for good. Of course if it breaks above it earlier, then this pattern projection is invalidated.
As a result, it is recommended to buy the current bottom so that we won't miss on a potential upside by breaking above the 1D MA50 earlier but at the same time reserve some cash for the possibility of a -44% decline around the $80.00 level. In both cases, we will set a $190.00 Target (horizon before end 2024), which is a 2.0 Fibonacci extension from the current bottom.
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$NVDA top in. Bottom between $25-40As you can see from the chart, NASDAQ:NVDA formed a double top at the highs and has started it's bear market.
I think from here we're going to see a move down that goes lower than what most people expect will happen.
I've seen a lot of people sharing that they want to bid the $72 region, which would make sense if this was a normal correction, however, I think this is a larger market wide panic and that price will go lower than what most people expect.
I think price is likely to hit the target in the bottom box by the end of 2025.
Let's see what happens over the coming months.
Nvidia Stock Rebounds 7% on Analysts Highlight Shares of Nvidia (NVDA) saw a rebound in early trading on Tuesday, following a sharp decline on Monday caused by reports of a delay in the release of its Blackwell artificial intelligence (AI) chip. The stock had tumbled more than 6% amid a broader global stock market rout. Despite the initial panic, analysts remain optimistic about Nvidia's long-term prospects and its leadership in the AI space.
Key Takeaways
- Rebound After Decline: Nvidia shares rebounded after a spokesperson clarified that the production of the Blackwell AI chip is still on track to ramp up in the second half of the year.
- AI Leadership: Bullish analysts believe Nvidia's strong position in the AI market will mitigate any short-term volatility caused by the reported delay.
- Analysts' Perspective: Analysts from major financial institutions, including Oppenheimer, Goldman Sachs, and Bank of America, maintain a positive outlook on Nvidia's long-term performance despite potential short-term setbacks.
Nvidia's Response to Delay Rumors
Nvidia addressed the concerns head-on, with a spokesperson stating, "Blackwell sampling has started, and production is on track to ramp in the second half of the year. Beyond that, we don't comment on rumors.” This statement aimed to reassure investors that the company is on schedule, despite the swirling rumors.
Analysts Remain Bullish
Oppenheimer analysts emphasized Nvidia's robust competitive position in the AI market, asserting that a minor delay would not lead to a loss of market share. They highlighted Nvidia's comprehensive AI hardware and software solutions as a key strength.
Goldman Sachs analysts acknowledged the possibility of near-term volatility but downplayed its impact on Nvidia's earnings for the 2025 calendar year. They stressed that Nvidia's long-term competitive position remains intact.
Citi analysts, despite removing Nvidia from their "upside catalyst watch" due to the delay reports, continued to hold a "buy" rating for the stock. They maintained confidence in Nvidia's ongoing performance.
Bank of America analysts viewed potential supply constraints as a "solvable" issue, suggesting that any resultant sell-off would be an "enhanced buying opportunity." Their long-term bullish stance on Nvidia remains unchanged.
Market Performance
As of the time of writing, Nvidia shares (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:NVDA ) had risen by 7%, reaching $106.48. Despite recent market turbulence, Nvidia's stock has more than doubled in value since the beginning of the year, showcasing its resilience and the strong confidence investors have in the company's future.
Conclusion
While the reported delay in Nvidia's Blackwell AI chip initially spooked the market, the company's clarification and the continued confidence of analysts highlight Nvidia's solid position in the AI industry. The consensus among analysts is that Nvidia's long-term prospects remain strong, bolstered by its leadership in AI technology. Investors seem to agree, as evidenced by the stock's quick rebound.
Next real support for NVDA is around 92Short term trend is DN with angle 2 now approaching UP angles 2-3.
We have RED TrapZone and RED UMVD with RED BAR. That means there is no Buy signals for some time.
If you are tempted to Buy, just look to the LEFT when the TrapZone was GREEN and Trap Bars were GREEN with GREEN UMVD - That is how Buy environment looks like.
GREEN UMVD will show that buyers are starting to come in. What do you think ?
Update: VIXIts been a while but those who follow me know I posted extensively about the VIX months back and as we can see, the VIX is very much in the news lately due to its current historical spike.
It was not one of the more popular topics at the time I was talking about it but as you can see on this chart outlined here, that this is an extremely powerful resource and should be one of my most popular posts in my opinion.
The VIX was and still is highly accurate in regard to being an indicator of when to be risk on vs risk off. The levels I drew have been respected for the last few years perfectly and historically after we've seen sudden spikes, they were short lived and the index came back down to levels that were very friendly to bulls. Historically, the last time volatility was at this level, Covid Pandemic had just happened. Shortly after markets rallied 100% before finally entering a bear market TWO YEARS later.
In the coming weeks keep an eye on the VIX to see if it returns back below 15 basis points in that sweet Buy and Hold area that I have labeled on the chart.
Nvidia is down 14% in Monday's Trading Entering Acquisition ZoneNvidia, a leading player in the semiconductor and AI sectors, has been making waves in 2024 with a series of strategic acquisitions. Despite facing increasing regulatory scrutiny and a cooling trend in AI mergers and acquisitions (M&A), the company is positioning itself for what could be its most acquisitive year yet. However, Nvidia's aggressive expansion strategy has not come without its challenges, reflected in its recent stock performance.
Nvidia's Acquisition Strategy in 2024
As of mid-2024, Nvidia ( NASDAQ:NVDA ) has announced four acquisition deals, matching its total for the entire year of 2020. This activity underscores the company's commitment to bolstering its capabilities and expanding its influence in the AI and semiconductor industries. Some of the notable acquisitions include:
1. Run:ai: In April, Nvidia agreed to acquire this Israeli firm known for its technology that enhances GPU efficiency. However, the deal has yet to close due to regulatory scrutiny from the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ).
2. Deci AI: Another Israeli startup, Deci AI, was acquired in May for $300 million. Deci AI provides tools for developers to build AI models, further strengthening Nvidia's position in the AI ecosystem.
These acquisitions highlight Nvidia's strategy to integrate advanced technologies and enhance its product offerings, especially in the AI domain. However, the company’s rapid expansion has attracted the attention of regulators.
Regulatory Hurdles and Market Reactions
Nvidia's acquisition spree is occurring under the watchful eyes of regulators. The DOJ and the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) are investigating Nvidia, along with Microsoft and OpenAI, for potential antitrust violations. This scrutiny has delayed some of Nvidia's deals, including the acquisition of Run:ai, reflecting broader concerns about market concentration in the rapidly growing AI sector.
The regulatory environment is becoming increasingly challenging for large tech companies. Nvidia's past experience with regulatory interference is notable, particularly the failed $40 billion acquisition of ARM from SoftBank in 2020, which was terminated in February 2022 due to regulatory hurdles. This history underscores the complexities and risks associated with large-scale acquisitions in the tech industry.
Market Performance and Investor Sentiment
Amid these regulatory challenges, Nvidia's stock has experienced significant volatility. Recently, Nvidia shares plummeted 14% in Monday's trading session, marking a substantial decline that brought the stock price to sub-$100 levels. This drop is part of a broader trend affecting the semiconductor sector, with other major players like Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) and Intel also seeing substantial declines.
The market reaction reflects investor concerns over regulatory risks and the overall health of the tech sector. The semiconductor industry is particularly sensitive to geopolitical tensions, trade policies, and macroeconomic factors, all of which have contributed to recent market volatility.
Opportunities and Risks
Despite these challenges, Nvidia remains a powerhouse in the AI and semiconductor industries. The company's acquisitions aim to enhance its technological capabilities and maintain its competitive edge. For instance, the integration of Run:ai's technology could significantly improve GPU efficiency, while Deci AI's tools could streamline the development of AI models, both of which are crucial for Nvidia's growth strategy.
Technical Outlook
At present, Nvidia stock ( NASDAQ:NVDA ) has declined by 10.61% and is trading above both the 50-day and 100-day Moving Averages (MAs). The stock's Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 34, placing it within the oversold territory. Concurrently, the broader stock indexes and the cryptocurrency market are undergoing a downturn, with Bitcoin ( CRYPTOCAP:BTC ) plummeting to $50k, underscoring the market's volatility.
This situation has resulted in a 1 billion-dollar liquidation of trades today. Prior to engaging in any stock transactions today, it is prudent to conduct a comprehensive risk assessment as the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has decreased by -2.29, indicating a pronounced bearish divergence.
Conclusion
Nvidia's aggressive acquisition strategy in 2024 reflects its ambition to dominate the AI and semiconductor sectors. While the company is navigating a complex regulatory environment and market volatility, its recent deals highlight its commitment to innovation and growth. Investors and industry observers will be closely watching Nvidia's next moves, especially as it approaches its earnings announcement on August 28. Despite the challenges, Nvidia's strategic acquisitions and technological advancements position it well for future opportunities in the dynamic and competitive tech landscape.
Nvidia under investigation by DOJ over competitive practicesNvidia, a leader in the artificial intelligence processor market, is under investigation by the US Department of Justice (DOJ). The probe, reported by The Information, focuses on allegations that Nvidia may have engaged in anti-competitive practices to maintain its market dominance. Specific concerns include potential restrictions placed on competition through product bundling and aggressive strategies aimed at deterring customers from engaging with competitors.
The investigation extends to accusations that Nvidia pressured cloud service providers into purchasing combinations of products, such as A100 or H100 GPUs and Mellanox-branded networking equipment, which could limit customer choices. Furthermore, the DOJ is scrutinising whether Nvidia imposed higher prices on networking equipment for customers who opted for AI processors from competitors like AMD and Intel.
Technical analysis of NVIDIA Corp. (NASDAQ: NVDA)
Here follows a review of NVIDIA's stock performance for potential trading opportunities:
Timeframe : Daily (D1)
Current trend : the stock is currently in a downtrend, influenced by broader market negativity and the recent allegations
Resistance level : 118.80 USD
Support level : 102.40 USD
Short-term target : if the downtrend continues and the support at 102.40 USD is breached, a short-term target could be set at 88.00 USD
Medium-term target : with further negative momentum, the price could potentially decline to 75.50 USD
Potential uptrend scenario : if market sentiment improves and Nvidia manages to navigate the investigation without significant damage, an uptrend could see the stock rise towards 130.00 USD
Investors and traders should closely monitor the developments of this DOJ investigation, as it could significantly impact Nvidia's business practices and market positioning. The outcome could have long-term implications for Nvidia's operations and its relationship with customers and competitors in the highly competitive AI processor market.
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Sitting on SupportWhat a beauty we see in $NVDA. The RSI is cooling to the oversold territory and volume is coming back in. It appears we are sitting on support and are ready to make a move back to the upside. Consolidation is being built and it looks like we are ready for the next bullish move. MACD is beginning to show some rotation and we are still well above the 200SMA which indicates NASDAQ:NVDA is still bullish. Short term with the weaker market over all, this and all of the market may pull back but, this one seems to be the strongest of them all. Let's see where it goes and how it holds the test of time.