NASDAQ 100 E-MINI FUTURES
𝗡𝗮𝘀𝗱𝗮𝗾 𝗨𝗽𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗲: $QQQ Daily. Red flag 🚩 for bearsHolding mid-bolli after an ugly candle yesterday. Red flag 🚩 for bears ATM. Another push higher for a final wave to put divergence in before a real pullback? What do you think?
$NQ_F NASDAQ:NDX NASDAQ:AAPL NASDAQ:MSFT NASDAQ:AMZN NASDAQ:META NASDAQ:GOOG NASDAQ:TSLA NASDAQ:NVDA NASDAQ:SOX $ES_F AMEX:SPY SP:SPX TVC:DXY NASDAQ:TLT TVC:TNX TVC:VIX #Stocks
Dow Jones Industrial Average: To 36000 Epic Milestone and BeyondDow 36,000: A New Strategy to Profit from Coming Stock Market Growth is a book published on October 1, 1999 by columnist James C. Glassman and economist Kevin A. Hassett in which they argued that stocks were significantly undervalued in 1999 and came to the conclusion that the market will grow 4 times, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average TVC:DJI will rise to 36,000 by 2002 or 2004.
The most important fact about stocks at the dawn of the twenty-first century: they are cheap...
- Glassman and Hasset. 1999. "Introduction". Dow 36000
However, life has made its own adjustments, and the era of "irrational optimism" (as it always happens) - came to its inevitable end.
In January 2000, just about three months later the publication of the book, the Dow Jones Index reached a record high of 11,750.28 points, which subsequently remained unbeaten for the next 6 plus years.
In the early 2000s, the Index fell steadily after the dot-com technology bubble burst.
And after the well-known bang on the American Twin Towers happened on September 11, 2001, the Dow Jones index fell even more, reaching a minimum of 7286.27 points by October 2002.
Financial crisis of 2007-09 sent the Dow Jones to even lower levels, which ultimately freed the hands of Congress and the US Treasury to uncover the money bazooka through raising national debt limits.
In general, only after the second attempt to fix above DJIA 10-year moving average in the third quarter of 2011, the Dow was able to rise in a half of the predicted path (from about 10,000 to 36,000 points).
Just 18 years later to the publication, in October 2017, - Dow reached milestone of 23,000 points, and the final achievement of the desired mark of 36,000 points took place only in December 2021.
However, by that time just few people remembered this book and its authors, who were later called "charlatans". Given that over the 22-year period since the publication of the book, consumer spending in the US ( FRED:PCE ) has increased by more than 2.5 times overall; the prices of gasoline, oil, wheat, corn, and sugar have more than tripled, and the prices of metals such as copper and gold have risen 5 to 7 times.
Closer to today's reality, the Dow Jones Industrial Average continues to follow the main uptrend trajectory formed by the US recovery from the 2007-09 Housing crisis. Dow stays for nowadays above its 10-year simple moving average that supported the index both in the third quarter of 2011 and at the time of Covid- 19 market collapse in the first quarter of 2020. At the moment Dow is being above the marked moving average by about 36.45%.
Technical resistance is considered as a range of 34,000 - 34,500 points, that lost in the first quarter of 2022. Attempts to return above this strong level have been overshadowed for several months - either by a banking collapse, and later by aggravated talk about the crisis of the US national debt ceiling.
In such scenarios, coupled with inflation, which remains significantly above the target level of 2 percent, despite repeated attempts to curb it by the Federal Reserve , the 36,000th milestone can for quite a long time, for a decade or even a year and a half, become a growth constraint of the world economy for quite a long time - for a decade or even fifteen years.
Key facts about the Dow Jones Industrial Average:
👉 Technical chart provided by ETF AMEX:DIA - SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF, generally in line with the price and yield of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (100:1 ratio).
👉 Dow Jones Industrial Average ( DJ:DJI ) is made up of 30 price-weighted blue-chip components of US stocks.
👉 DJIA is the oldest barometer of the US stock market, the flag and the logo of capitalism, and the most widely quoted indicator of the activity of the US stock market and world economy.
NQ1! Supply Demand Levels 6/25I am expecting more movement from Wednesday to Friday due to Powell speaking. Staying open minded to what may happen as we have been consolidating and getting tighter in range.
BULLS: 15264 as we hit this area multiple times, it is the double top of Jan/March 2022, and we can't seem to break over it now. We have a 3HR supply and 15M supply to break through. If we can get through this area, looking for a push to 15475 6/16 highs to retest by EOW or by next week.
BEARS: 14910 is the next 1HR S1 pivot target that I would like to see hit first. This would retrace some of the bull move from 6/12 and seems like a solid retracement. If we can break through this level, 14780-14800 looks like a solid 4HR demand area and where we consolidated before the big break to the upside. This seems like a promising bounce area.
These targets may seem out of reach if based on a slow volume week, but with news speeches, we may get the momentum to move 300-500 pts this week (.5-1% a day).
Link to chart: www.tradingview.com
NASDAQ Final pull back pending unless the 1day MA50 breaks.Nasdaq / US100 hit the top of the long term Channel Up and Resistance A (March 2022 top) and got rejected.
Based on the previous Higher Highs, the rejection should form a Channel Down / Bear Flag.
According to that, there is one final pull back pending to 14730. Buy it and target 15500.
If anyhow the price crosses under the 1day MA50 or closes the 1day candle under the 0.786 Fibonacci level, sell and aim at the 1day MA100 that is unchallenged since March 13th.
There return to buying, which is also the bottom of the long term Channel Up, and target 15500.
The RSI's Rising Support can be used as a great additional indication of a buy (hold) or sell (break) inside this long term Channel Up.
Previous chart:
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NQ1!: Bullish Continuation is Highly Probable! Here is Why:
Remember that we can not, and should not impose our will on the market but rather listen to its whims and make profit by following it. And thus shall be done today on the NQ1! pair which is likely to be pushed up by the bulls so we will buy!
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NASDAQ100- Corection, then higher againNASDAQ100 comes down from 161.8% Fib, so can be higher degree wave 4, either deep in price or sideways in time. In either case, it can take a bit more to complete correction based on Fibs and time compared to wave 2. First support is here 14800-15k, then its 14400-14600,
US100 BUYAccording to the analysis of the Nasdaq index. There is a high probability of a decline. The price reached a strong resistance level at 15,200. This resistance can be seen on the daily chart. Also, when it reached this area, it formed a strong double bottom pattern. With the formation of very negative candles confirming the great pressure of the sellers until the index declines. good luck
NQ1! Will Go Down From Resistance! Short!
Take a look at our analysis for NQ1!.
Time Frame: 1D
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is approaching a significant resistance area 14985.75.
Due to the fact that we see a positive bearish reaction from the underlined area, I strongly believe that sellers will manage to push the price all the way down to 14352.50 level.
P.S
Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all.
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NQ1! Supply Demand Levels 6/20We just recently broke from the 1HR downtrend line and looking to break to make newer highs. We have news releases this week for possible momentum to do just that. For this reason, I have bigger EOW targets to possibly reach. For intraday targets, targeting 0.5-1% of the NQ price.
BULLS:I am interested in breaking the top of the trendline at 6/16/23 recent highs of 15475 and then the Daily supply zone above to be filled near 15.5k.
BEARS: I like the 14981 area as we had previous bounces on the 4HR TF about 3x. If we can break through this area, I would like the 14879 zone to be filled.
Link for chart: www.tradingview.com
NASDAQ: Correction aiming at the 4H MA200.Nasdaq reached the R1 (15,300) last week, a highly important benchmark as it is the March 2022 Top. Being overbought on the 1D timeframe (RSI = 71.117, MACD = 398.240, ADX = 42.100), the current correction comes as a natural consequence. The target is the bottom of the three month Channel Up. Ideally we aim at the 4H MA200 (TP = 14,600), which has been previously tested and held as Support on May 4th and April 25th.
Prior idea:
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Psychology of Price Action Analysis | NASDAQ and ES Futures- NASDAQ and ES futures confirmed a hourly downtrend i want to see it confirm on market cash open on QQQ and SPY to be more convincing
- the size of this pull back will determine if we can short a daily lower high if its a shallow pull back then bulls are still in completely control
NASDAQ Rejection on March 2022 High gives a strong sell signalNasdaq got rejected exactly upon touching the 15285 Resistance for the first time since the High of March 29th 2022.
This is a strong sell signal and can be confirmed after the RSI (1d) crosses under the MA line.
The long term pattern is a Channel Up since the beginning of March and the MA50 (1d) has been intact since March 15th, which makes the index exceedingly overbought.
Trading Plan:
1. Sell after the RSI (1d) crosses under the MA (white line).
Targets:
1. 14300 (Channel Up bottom and near Support 1).
2. Extend to 13520 only if we close a (1d) candle under the MA50 (1d).
Tips:
1. The RSI (1d) is printing a pattern similar to the tops of February 2nd and March 31st. Both reached the 1.618 Fibonacci level, which was our target on our last Nasdaq call (see chart below).
2. If we do break below the MA50 (1d), the MA100 (1d) could be a valid target as it has been untouched since January 20th.
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Notes:
Past trading plan:
#SP500 Alternative #SPX #SPY #ES1! A less demanding and yet more robust looking alternative would be to drop expectation of ABC flat and replace it with WXY double zigzag.
This scenario popped up just now when I erased some of the previous drawings, zoomed out and tried thinking bigger and less anchored by the previous ideas.