NASDAQ 100 E-MINI FUTURES
NQ1! NAS100USD NASDAQ Analysis dated 2023 Oct 02NQ1! NAS100USD NASDAQ 2023 Oct 02
Analysis from 02 Sep 2023 short scenario worked out well for the month.
- market broke down the upward channel (black dash)
- Supply is present on Friday's bar
- Wait for reaction to demand line of upward channel (blue highlight, set alarm)
Possible scenarios:
1) Market returns into upward channel and is supported = Long on test and accept
2) Short on rejection if bottom of channel becomes resistance.
Price Reaction Levels
Short on Test and reject | Long on Test and Accept
16255 15801 15283 14804 13960
*Longer term: 13350 support must hold for long trend to be intact.
Price/Volume/Trend Analysis:
Weekly: Ave vol up bar close level with previous bar = NTC, Minor support
Daily: S>D weak close up bar.
*NTC = Non-Trend Changing | PTC: Potential Trend Changing
Like and follow if you find this useful | *For education purpose only.
Have a profitable trading week.
Nasdaq Futures are at the crucial point. For NASDAQ Contracts to go higher, they need to clear out the 14,950 level. If they get rejected from 14,950, then look for downside. On the other hand 14,800 is acting as a good support. wait till the Michigan consumer sentiment data release tomorrow before taking any position. do not trade for the first half hour after the open since there is a lot of data release like PCE before market. we were already down by almost 9 percent, since few days from recent highs. Very good chance of a getting and inside day tomorrow. there are high chances of us getting a follow through tomorrow on the bullish side. It is also the end of the month for positioning stand point so be aware and trade after 1 hour of market open to avoid unnecessary risk.
NASDAQ Triple buy signal on the short term.Nasdaq hit yesterday the Falling Support of the Falling Wedge pattern as well as the Rising Support and is posting today the 2nd straight green (1d) candle.
At the same time, the RSI (1d) formed a Double Bottom.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy on the current market price.
Targets:
1. 15300 (Falling Resistance and 0.786 Fib).
Tips:
1. The RSI (1d) is under a Falling Resistance. If crossed over we may start having a case for resuming the bullish trend.
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All Targets Hit in the SP500 FuturesToday we hit my long standing targets and so far have bounced.
I have carried an orange bullish count and a bearish blue count on this chart for a while now. If we can develop an impulsive 5-wave structure up that breaches 4508. I'll remove the bearish blue count targeting 4030-4060.
Should we rally in a corrective 3-wave manner and fail to take out key resistance, then breach today's LOD at 4277.25. Then I will remove the orange bullish count.
Best to all,
Chris
/ES (SPY) Gap Fill Long with Confluence/Odds Enhancers!While wariness remains re: larger timeframe structure for US equities (+ continued weakness in US gov’t bonds, USD strength), we are stalking near/intermediate-term longs via downside futures gaps in both the ES and NQ. The YM and, to a lesser extent RTY, are also approaching possible buy zones, thus bolstering this trade’s attractiveness.
While the primary premise of the trade is filling the downside gap into “demand”, odds are enhanced via the trendline and anchored VWAP, which coincide with ~4300 (major psychological #). When placing equity index futures trades at LionHart, we closely watch potentially correlated markets (VIX, DXY, ZF/N/B…). Volatility has had a nice move alongside the downdraft in stocks, but may be a bit overaccelerated as it approaches “supply” (red lines). If equity indexes fill downside gaps and pierce buy zones, watch the VIX and other related markets for reversal signals.
Regarding trade concerns/targeting, we sometimes prefer subjective target/trade management via small timeframe charts; that methodology will be applied here. New overhead supply has formed ~4360 and traditional resistance traders may defend ~4340-50, so trade profit margin is not ideal. Given that equity markets have a bullish bias, though, we still believe capital is worth deploying. If you can purchase multiple contracts, consider scaling ahead of the abovementioned levels and hold runners if prices press higher. The red zones = supply, where unfilled sell orders remain.
Thank you for reading, thoughts/feedback welcome, and good luck/happy trading!
Jon
NASDAQ NQ (QQQ, NDX) Gap Fill LongQuick take here before signing off. We’re already seeing a buy side reaction in US equity indexes as the ES (S&P 500) came very close to filling its downside futures gap. We captured the S&P 500 idea in a post several hours ago (). If equities retest lower, which we believe they’re likely to, the NQ has a couple solid demand/buy zones (green lines) not too far away. Per usual, we’ll have to see how prices approach the levels – hopefully we don’t get too much of a methodical grind lower, forming clean supply/resistance to immediately challenge buyers @ our demand areas; if this happens, the trade’s profit margin/risk-reward could be truncated.
We’ll do a more thorough check later and will update this post, but wanted to give you all something to think about. Comments welcome!
Jon @ LionHart Trading
Nasdaq Futures breaking supportThe Nasdaq Futures just broke the 100 EMA and the Pivot level support of S1 on a daily time frame. There is a very high chance that it will touch the 200 EMA in the coming days within 1-2 weeks. Please proceed with caution on a daily basis because we can get a dead cat bounce in this scenario. We have Jerome Powell speaking this week as well. So there are high chances of a volatile session. Please follow my profile so that I can start live streaming since trading view has limitations of 10 followers at bear minimum. appreciate your support thanks.
Weekly Update: Why is the Street Asleep at the Wheel?Post 2009 Financial Crisis, they made movies about the housing and economic downturn. Here’s the thing, there are over 10M financial advisors, money managers, hedge fund managers, and fundamental and technical analysts in the industry. This doesn’t include the geniuses in the Financial News business. However, why did only a hand full of that total population (less than a dozen) see the SPX dropping 60% from 1587 to 666 in a matter of 5 months?
Did you watch the movies?
Because the reason was on average, housing has always been a 3-5% asset yielding per year over the long term. There was no way the housing market was going to crash. 10M smart people and only a dozen got it right? What does that say about the other 9.999M smart people in the industry?
No, I’m not writing about how I am smarter than 10M professionals in the industry, but you have to admit, by and large, EVERYONE IN THE INDUSTRY got it wrong. It's easy to manage money when the market just goes up for 100 years...what about when that is no longer the case. During the very long cycle paradigm shifts, the old norms no longer apply.
In my opinion, they’re cranking up the ignorant train once again. I’ll attempt to over simply this.
INTEREST RATE REVERSION TO THE MEAN
Most market participants are not used to interest rates at 10%...I on the other hand, used to think 10% was competitive. But long-term cycles being what they're are, their purpose is to clean the slate, re-educate participants, get rid of the old and welcome the new, all while reverting back to an equilibrium or a cycle norm.
I'm curious when the street will stop discussing soft landing, no landing, higher for longer, etc. Start concerning themselves with how our economy looks and functions next year, the year after that, and 5 years from now in a long-term rising interest rate environment. I have a feeling the 10M in the financial services industry will shrink, and those smart people, will have get a lot smarter to survive.
NASDAQ Last chance to recover.Nasdaq/ US100 is trading exactly at the bottom (Rising Support) of the Channel Up.
Being under the 1day MA100, this is its last chance to recover. A crossing under it, sets in motion a decline to the 1day MA200 and we should look for a bottom after the 1day RSI gets oversold under 30.00.
A Channel Down can be the driving pattern to the 1day MA200 and we should also consider the Fibonacci retracement levels since the Channel Up started. The 0.382 Fibonacci fits ideally a touch on the 1day MA200.
As long as the 1day candle is closing inside the Channel Up, buy (very low risk now) and target 15,940 (Resistance). If it breaks, sell and target 14,100.
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DEVELOPING. NQ 60-min. Long/Bounce.Looking to play tech for a bounce here. Demand Zone is sourced from 60-minute chart within the context of longer-term timeframes. As overarching market structure is somewhat of a concern, look to harvest short-term profits quickly and leave runners for intermediate-term swing long if able. Safety first!
NASDAQ Is this what the markets fear the most?More than a month (August 16) ago we called for caution on Nasdaq (NDX) after calling for a short on the 1W MACD Bearish Cross formation (see chart below):
This analysis didn't receive the attention it should as it delivered bad news that market participants wanted to ignore. The 1W MACD Bearish Cross on such a high level hasn't been seen since 2021 and that brought memories of the Inflation Crash.
This week the index broke below the 1D MA100 (red trend-line) for the first time in 6 months with the 1W RSI turning neutral below 55.00 after being massively overbought from late May to late July. So far this looks like a healthy (and much needed) correction, similar to the 1D MA100 hit-and-rebounds of October 26 2020, March 01 2021, May 10 2021, September 27 2021.
The common characteristic on all was that no 1W candle closed below the 1W MA100 and no selling sequence broke below the Support provided by the first candle that approached or hit the 1D MA100. This time that Support is at 14550. So far the current pattern resembles more the August - October 2020 fractal as the 1W MACD Bearish Cross is the widest while also formed after an incredible rally from the market bottom (it was the COVID flash crash recovery then). Check also the 1W RSI which is remarkably symmetrical.
Also every such fractal that didn't cause a crash, broke quickly above a Lower Highs trend-line. The only one that didn't was the market peak fractal of November 2021.
In our opinion, as long as Nasdaq holds the 14550 Support, it will become a buy opportunity the moment it breaks above the Lower Highs trend-line. In that case, we will resume our 16770 long-term Buy Target (and All Time High). If however it closes a 1W candle below the Support, we would expect a sharp sell-off to the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), as it happened on the January 17 2022 candle. In that case we will need the fundamentals that will surround the market at the time, to determine the risk of buying at 13500 (projected contact level with the 1W MA50.
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As we Approach the 4307.50 target, a Reminder Seems AppropriateI’ve written about price heading to the mid 4200’s to low 4300’s for a while now. By my count, I’ve written a total of 4 times just in the month of September.
Links below:
Sept 15
Sept 14
Sept 8
Sept 2
The target moved up slightly following the Sept contract change to Dec from 4256 to 4307.50. As the analysis changed, I adjusted my targets. But I must be honest, this has been a difficult pattern to trade so far up till today.
From an educational standpoint, yes, I found some silver linings. Ones in which I feel will end up working in my favor in the future. However, I didn’t decide to write this article to announce to my followers how great of an analyst I am.
I did so to issue a reminder.
When price does finally come into the 4307.50 area…if we bounce impulsively higher in a 5-wave pattern, we may complete an abc correction to the downside and rally for the remainder of 2023.
However, if we breach 4307.50 to the downside for a sustained period of time, and price continues to move through the 4250 level. That is our first big clue (NOT CONFIRMATION) that we’re headed to 3200-3300 MINIMUM IN early to mid 2024...
Just a friendly reminder.
Best to all,
Chris