NQ
Nasdaq: Gains Driven by Data, Eyes on Key Events Next WeekNasdaq: Gains Driven by Data, Eyes on Key Events Next Week
The Nasdaq ended the week on a positive note, buoyed by strong economic data, robust corporate earnings, and supportive seasonality. However, investors are shifting their focus to critical upcoming events: the FOMC meeting on Tuesday and the PCE inflation report on Wednesday. These events have the potential to set the tone for the markets for the remainder of the year.
Mixed Economic Data
The past week brought a blend of economic data, with some encouraging signals and a few disappointments:
- Initial Jobless Claims (Nov. 16): At 213K, the result came in better than the 220K consensus, underscoring the resilience of the labor market and reducing recession fears.
- Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Nov.): Disappointed at -5.5 against expectations of 8, reflecting continued weakness in the manufacturing sector.
- Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final (Nov.): Came in at 71.8, below the 73.7 forecast, indicating a slight dip in consumer confidence.
- S&P Global Services PMI Flash (Nov.): Surprised to the upside with a reading of 57.0, exceeding the expected 55.2, highlighting the strength of the services sector.
Nvidia Shines Bright
Corporate earnings added to the bullish sentiment, led by Nvidia's impressive Q3 results. The company reported revenue of 35.08 billion dollars, significantly above the consensus estimate of 33.17 billion dollars. As a leader in AI-related technology and semiconductors, Nvidia's results lifted the broader tech sector and contributed to Nasdaq's gains.
Market Sentiment and Seasonality
The Fear & Greed Index currently stands at 61, in the "Greed" zone, indicating a risk-on environment as investors show confidence in equities. Seasonality also plays a crucial role. Historically, Nasdaq benefits from end-of-year trends, especially in an election year, when policymakers often aim to maintain market stability.
Challenges Ahead
While the current momentum is positive, the market faces significant tests next week with two major events:
1. FOMC Meeting (Tuesday): The Federal Reserve’s policy decisions and commentary will be in the spotlight. Investors will look for signals on whether the Fed plans to pause or keep the door open for further rate hikes in 2024.
2. PCE Inflation Report (Wednesday): The core PCE inflation data, the Fed's preferred measure of price pressures, could shape expectations for monetary policy. A higher-than-expected reading might increase concerns about further tightening, while a lower figure would reinforce the soft landing narrative.
Lingering Risks
In addition to the upcoming macroeconomic events, investors remain wary of:
- Trade Policy: Former President Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs on imported goods could stoke inflation and weigh on economic growth.
- Geopolitics: The ongoing risk of escalation in the Ukraine conflict continues to loom over global markets.
Soft Landing: The Baseline Scenario
Looking at the current data, the Nasdaq appears to be on the path to a soft landing, supported by a strong labor market and robust technology sector performance. Favorable seasonality—both year-end trends and election-year dynamics—further bolsters the case for continued gains, which remains the baseline scenario for now.
Conclusion
The Nasdaq has shown strength, but next week’s FOMC meeting and PCE inflation report could reshape market dynamics. The key question is whether the data will support the soft landing narrative or signal a need for further monetary tightening.
What are your thoughts on the Nasdaq’s outlook given the upcoming Fed meeting and inflation data? Will the index sustain its rally, or are we in for increased volatility? Share your insights in the comments.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 11-22: Tmp-Bottom PatternToday's Temp-Bottom pattern suggests the SPY/QQQ will attempt to move downward - trying to find support.
If this pattern plays out as I suspect, we'll see the SPY and QQQ move lower, with the SPY attempting to move to the 588-590 area and the QQQ attempting to move to the 499-500 area.
I still believe the current setup promotes a breakdown in price based on the current Flagging formation related to the broad Excess Phase Peak pattern.
Nothing tells me the markets are going to rally at this stage. Unless we get above the Peak levels of these patterns, the most logical outcome is a breakdown in price leading to a Phase #3 EPP consolidation low.
Gold and Silver are starting to make a very big recovery rally - just as I suggested weeks ago.
It is great to see this move in Gold - although Silver is lagging a bit. Silver will rally, but it will rally slower than Gold at this point.
There is a real chance Gold could be trading above $3000 before the end of 2024. Buckle up.
BTCUSD came within $1000 of my $100,500 target level overnight. WOW.
This last $1000 move higher should be reached today.
Once we get above $100,500 on BTCUSD, expect it to try to roll into a new pullback and setup a new EPP Flagging formation.
That is what price does, it is either TRENDING or FLAGGING.
Get some.
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SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 11-21 : Harami Inside PatternToday's Pattern suggests the SPY will consolidate in a Harami-Inside day type of price action.
In today's video, I highlight the continued potential for a price Anomaly event, even though we are seeing mostly post-election bullish price activity.
I do believe the proposed Anomaly event is highly likely headed into the Thanksgiving & Christmas holiday season.
Gold and Silver may stall a bit before attempting to rally further. Silver is not reacting similar to Gold, thus I have concerns that metals may stall a bit before attempting a bigger move higher.
BTCUSD is on track to rally up to $100k - just as I predicted.
Get some today.
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SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 11-20 : Flat-Down PatternToday's Flat Down Pattern suggests the SPY & QQQ will trail downward a bit within the current #2 sideways flagging pattern. I believe this setup is indicative of a broader breakdown (Anomaly Event) playing out headed into Thanksgiving and into the end of the year.
Gold and Silver are also moving in an Inverted Excess Phase Peak pattern - struggling near a Phase #3 (sideways consolidation) range. This move will resolve to the upside if my research is correct, yet we could also see Gold and Silver move into a very large Phase #2 type of EPP phase (Flagging downward). This could setup a very large upward price rally in Gold and Silver over the next 60+ days.
BTCUSD is struggling to break to new highs. Although I see a confirmed bullish trend because of a recent new Higher High, I also see BTCUSD struggling to continue to make new highs right now.
Because of this, I see some potential for a breakdown if BTCUSD is unable to rally to new highs within the next 5 to 6+ hours.
Remember, price must always attempt to make new highs or new lows. Failure to make a new high means price must then attempt to make a new low. Failure to make a new low means price must then attempt to make a new high.
These are the RULES OF MARKET PRICE ACTIVITY. Once you learn to use/follow them, trading becomes a bit easier to understand.
Get some.
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Bitcoin Breaks To New Highs - $100.5K Is The Likely TargetI created this short video to help traders understand how Fibonacci Price Theory works using BTCUSD.
This move suggests that BTCUSD will attempt to rally above $95k and target $100.5k in the next trending phase.
BTCUSD broke away from the Excess Phase peak Flagging formation (#2) very clearly today.
At this point, there is very little downside price risk unless price breaks below $86.8k.
I also review Gold/Silver and the SPY/QQQ to help traders prepare for the BIG SHIFT into my proposed Anomaly Event.
Here we go..
Get some.
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SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 11-19 : Top Resistance PatternToday's Pattern plays into the Anomaly Event I believe will continue to play out over the next 15+ trading days.
Today's Top Resistance pattern suggests the SPY/QQQ will move higher, attempting to find a peak, then roll downward into a decidedly bearish type fo trend.
My analysis continues to suggest a price Anomaly event is likely. I believe this event could be related to a financial or hard-asset type of devaluation event (a mini-crisis).
As of right now, we need to see how today plays out related to price trends. I would be cautious of a rollover to the downside throughout trading today for the SPY/QQQ.
Gold & Silver already moving into a very strong #3 rally phase - attempting to find the new consolidation range (forming the #3 of the EPP pattern).
Bitcoin has moved into a moderate bullish trend - but could still roll downward very strongly. Stay very cautious of this moderate upward trend until we get a more confirmed breakaway above the Ultimate High.
Get some.
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SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade Video for 11-18: No INTERNET IssueMorning guys.
Something odd happened today after I created a great 45-minute morning video.
TradingView reported an Internet Issue even though my internet was working perfectly???
So, I DOWNLOADED the video so I have a record of it and posted it up elsewhere.
I don't know what to say - except check my profile on TradingView.
I was not going to try to replicate my 45 minute recording after experiencing this issue.
Get Some.
NASDAQ Next weekPrice Running between Ascending channel and already
touches upper border and clear bos there
i expect price will fall down till bellow trend line
that is strong trend line in 4 Hour
However we have 2 scenarios. if price broken the below trend line
will fall to below imbalance around 19000 level. That means down border of channel
If price got bullish rejection near trend line price will rise around 2100 - 2200 areas.
waing to bullish or bearish confirmation and execute your trade. good luck
BEAR-TRAP : GAP Reversal May Lead To Larger EPP FlaggingPay attention to the dual Excess Phase Peak (EPP) patterns in the SPY this morning and how the current GAP Reversal pattern may resolve as a base/bottom in the markets in early trading.
I believe the markets will shift from this early breakdown into a moderate upward (Flagging) trend.
Learning to anticipate these types of shifts in the market can help you plan and prepare for future price trend rotations.
Knowing the SPY is likely to attempt to base/bottom from a broader EPP pattern (moving into the sideways Flagging stage #2) suggests traders may attempt to prepare for a 0.75% to 1.25% upward price swing over the next 2 to 4+ days.
This aggressive downward selling aligned perfectly with my SPY Cycle Patterns. Now, this low may be the Base/Bottom I'm expecting to shift into the FLAGGING phase of the larger EPP pattern (#2).
Buckle up. This should be fun.
Looks like a BEAR TRAP in the making.
Get some.
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SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 11-15: GAP-Reversal Counter-TrendToday's Pattern suggests the SPY will GAP downward at the open and attempt to identify a base/bottom throughout the day.
I belive this move may represent a pause in the downward trend, shifting into a FLAGGING pattern as part of a broader Excess Phase Peak pattern.
If I'm correct, we are going to move into a moderate BUYing opportunity for the SPY/QQQ lasting into Tuesday/Wednesday of next week.
Gold and Silver appear to be setting up a base/bottom off a very deep Phase #5 (Ultimate Low) of a current Excess Phase Peak pattern. This means, if we continue to get confirmation, that Gold and Silver will attempt to move higher and attempt to move into the Phase #3 of the Excess Phase Peak pattern (a move into a consolidation phase).
BTCUSD is current exhibiting a dual type of Excess Phase Peak pattern that suggests a broader breakdown is in the works. Possibly back down to 78-82k. This could be a very big contraction event for BTCUSD.
Buckle up.
Happy Friday.
Get some.
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Special Update: Trump Win Sets Off Predatory Fed ActionsThis video highlights why I believe 2025 & 2026 will be filled with incredible opportunities for traders/investors.
Most people don't understand that the world's financial markets are connected through central bank policy and credit/debt operations. Global economies operate in some ways as interconnected economies, but many aspects of individual global economies are unique to their local economies, governments, and monetary policies.
Right now, we are living through what may become the "Great Decoupling Event," as I believe the actions of the US Federal Reserve and global central banks over the past 10+ years have created a unique situation for investors.
There has never been a time when global central banks attempted to coordinate around a global event (like COVID) in an attempt to spark economic activity. Usually, global central banks operate somewhat autonomously, depending on localized credit/debt/economic factors.
After the COVID crisis, I believe global central banks moved back into that mostly autonomous mode and failed to see the potential strength of the US economy - driving foreign currency values and debt markets crazy.
With Trump's second term "locked up," the data shows the money supply activity and expectations have changed (upward). The recent rate decreases by the US Fed were in the wrong direction. Now that money supply activity is moving aggressively to the upside, I think the US Fed will aggressively change its direction and begin to raise rates in early 2025 (or maybe even before the end of 2024).
This video attempts to show you why I believe an Anomaly Event is very likely before January 2025 and why I believe the US Fed is currently unprepared for what will likely come in early 2025 with Trump's inauguration.
If this trend continues, the Fed will be forced to fight inflationary trends again aggressively, which will most likely put extreme pressure on global credit/debt markets.
As a trader/investor - this should present some great opportunities for skilled traders.
Get some.
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SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 11-14 : Temp Bottom In Trend ModeToday's pattern suggests the SPY will attempt to continue to flag sideways and slightly higher after finding support in early trading.
Watch my video in detail. I go into a lot of longer-term price pattern detail and discuss the post-election setup of my Anomaly Event expectation.
As I see the markets right now, they have moved, and continue to move in a direction that is likely to present a very real moderate crisis event over the next 3 to 6+ months.
The stronger US Dollar is very likely to put pressure on foreign markets/debt related to the "carry trade" that was abundant before and after COVID. The Trump win is sending the markets into a Super-Predator mode (maybe I'll create a new video about this), where global markets, central banks, and global financial institutions may be at risk related to their long-term debt positions.
At this point, The SPY and the QQQ will likely slide into a consolidation phase (a type of FLAGGING related to the broader Excess Phase Peak pattern) over the next 3+ days. Then, I expect the Anomaly Event to start to take shape and for the SPY/QQQ to begin a downward price trend.
Gold and Silver are struggling to find a bottom as the US Dollar continues to rally. Don't expect any relief for metals as along as the US Dollar is rallying like this.
This is a predatory shift related to global assets and Gold/Silver are going to stay weaker for as long as this shift continues.
BTCUSD may rally up to $108k~120k if my research is correct. BTCUSD is in a "rally to the ultimate high" mode based on a very large Weekly Excess Phase Peak pattern.
Remember, everything you need to know is already on the price chart. You just have to learn to identify these patterns and spend some time looking around at various intervals to figure out what is going to happen next.
Get some.
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SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 11-13 : Consolidation PatternToday's SPY Cycle Pattern is a Consolidation pattern. I believe the SPY will continue to attempt to form a "rolling top" pattern over the next few days and attempt to move into my Anomaly event over the next 15+ days.
This Anomaly event is likely to prompt a fairly strong downward trend related to the recent post-election rally.
I believe Gold and Silver MAY HAVE found the ultimate low. It sure looks like Gold and Silver are attempting to base with a near-perfect Excess Phase Peak pattern Ultimate Low setup.
Time will tell. If gold and silver fall further, the rallying of the US dollar will likely be the cause.
I'm watching BTCUSD for a toping formation as I spent quite a bit of time going over the dual Excess Phase Peak pattern in BTCUSD. This is very interesting because it aligns with Fibonacci Price Theory very cleanly.
Today, it seems traders can kind of take a break from the markets. If my analysis is correct, today will be a fairly quiet Consolidation day - where price attempts to trade in a bit of a sideways price mode - searching for the next big move.
Pay attention to the BTCUSD chart where I highlight the 13:00 to 15:00 ET Flag Apex time. It appears BTCUSD may move into a volatile price phase near this time - possibly associated with some news or event.
Get some.
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SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 11-12 : Top/Resistance PatternToday's video is filled with great content.
Near the end of the video, I review the 11 SPDR sectors related to my deep research into my Anomaly price pattern.
Right now, I see the markets as very over-extended (overbought). I believe the markets will attempt to contact over the next 15-20+ days - setting up a base/bottom before a very late-stage Santa Rally sets up.
I've been very busy over the past few day and have a family member in the hospital right now. So, I'll be away from my PC for a bit today.
Remember, protect capital at all times.
I've been getting messages from people suggesting some traders are trying to go ALL-IN on some of these bigger price moves.
My suggestion more than three weeks ago (and even right now), is you should be in 85% CASH unless you can take the LUMPS related to trading through a hotly contested election event.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 11-11: Gap Potential In Trend ModeHappy Veterans Day.
Thanks to all the current and past service members who have dedicated so much time and effort to protect all of us from the evil in the world. If you have anyone in your family that has served in the military, please take a moment to call and thank them for their service today.
As today is a Federal holiday, I expect the markets to be somewhat muted in terms of trends.
We are still seeing BTCUSD rally higher as the Trump win delivers a clear mandate related to global crypto/blockchain opportunities.
We are still dealing with a market in a post-election rally phase. I believe this rally phase will diminish over the next 5 to 7+ days and move into the early stages of my Anomaly phase.
My research suggests the US and global markets are likely to move into a consolidation phase before attempting to move into a very late phase Santa Rally.
So, at this point, with the SPY breaching 600 in pre-market trading, I would suggest traders start to PULL PROFITS and prepare for what I believe will be a moderate consolidation of price over the next 5-7+ trading days.
Gold and Silver are still FLAGGING in an inverted Excess Phase Peak pattern. This is currently a bearish price trend - attempting to break higher to move into a rally to Phase #3 (consolidation).
We could see some big price rotation today if Gold and Silver break above the FLAGGING trend.
Buckle up.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 11-8 : Counter-trend RallyHappy Friday everyone,
Today's SPY Cycle Pattern is a Rally in Counter-trend mode.
I interpret this as a moderate downward price trend for the SPY - possibly pulling the SPY into the GAP created after yesterday's opening GAP rally.
I got into deep detail related to the potential anomaly event setting up over the next three weeks for the SPY & QQQ in this video.
I also go into a fairly deep analysis of Gold and Silver - relating my expectations and how these moves align cleanly with an inverted Excess Phase Peak pattern.
And, I even go into broad detail for BTCUSD and how I see multiple aligned Excess Phase Peak Patterns setting up to drive big trends over the next 3-4 weeks.
As I stated near the end of this video, the next 5-7+ years are going to be filled with opportunity. I suggest everyone get ready for the biggest opportunity of your life.
I hope you enjoy my videos and research. I know some of you have already experienced tremendous success following my research.
I'm urging to you consider the opportunity that will be available as the markets continue to trend through my window of opportunity - and how you want to try to profit from these moves.
Remember, the markets will always be there - but these opportunities are unique to the next 5-7+ years.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
Fibonacci/Gann & 3-6-9 Chart Play: The TOP may be IN I was trying to identify if/how the market may be topping in relation to the post-election rally phase and started with a blank Daily SPY chart.
After drawing a few line of the chart, I started with an idea that Broad market pullbacks may be the key to identifying/timing market expansion phases (coupled with a bit of logic).
This video highlights this theory going back to 2018 and examines a number of price pullback trends as well as Fibonacci Timing structures related to Fibonacci Price Expansion blocks.
I think you will find this very useful as I continue to delve deeper into the 3-6-9 structure, polarity shifts (binary shifts) and trying to unlock the secrets of price trends/extensions.
Hope you enjoy...
Oh.. and it looks like the US markets are about to top if my research is correct.
Get some.
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SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 11-7 : Rally Pattern DayGood morning,
Although I would argue the post-election rally may already be moving into exhaustion, the SPY Cycle Patterns suggest today is a Rally pattern in Trending mode. So, I expect the markets to attempt a bit of a carryover rally phase today - moving into a Counter-trend Rally pattern tomorrow.
That counter-trend rally pattern suggests the markets will try to find a peak/top and roll downward into the close of the week.
Gold and Silver appear to be basing with a potential for another move downward today - retesting recent lows. Based on my estimate related to Fibonacci Time Cycles, I believe Metals is looking for a momentum base to rally off of. Thus, I suggest traders prepare for a big move upward in Gold and Silver over the next 4 to 7+ trading days.
Bitcoin is still in a Bullish trending phase after breaking into new highs. Today, I spent quite a bit of time going over the Excess Phase Peak pattern related to how the price is trending and what to expect.
It is critical to understand that the markets will move away from this post-election relief rally phase over the next week or so. Ultimately, what has changed is that we have a new POTUS with new policies and objectives in 2025. Right now, everything is still pretty much the same as it was last week.
Volatility is still high and I urge traders to stay cautious. The time for adding more liquidity will come after November 25-30.
Remember, the number 1 rule for traders is to Protect Capital. You can still trade, just trade much smaller allocation levels for now.
We are about to move into a period of moderate consolidation. Sit back and wait out this sideways trend. The real opportunity will come after November 25-30.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
NQ breaks to new highs. Markets reacting to Election ResultsThis upward trend seems to have some momentum today. I'm not suggesting traders chase this rally and hold anything overnight, but I am seeing new highs on the ES/NQ charts, and IWM and other sectors are rallying to new ATHs today as well.
This shows the scale of capital sitting and waiting for the election to play out. Traders were very concerned with the election outcome.
At this point, I consider this rally phase a bit overcooked. The ES and NQ will likely continue to try to push higher as we move into the Santa Rally phase, but as a trader, I would be cautious of any overreaction to the election results.
My best advice for my followers is to continue trading in minimal quantities unless you can handle taking huge lumps/losses over the next 3 to 4 days.
The US markets will settle into next week, and after this emotional price move subsides, we'll start to trend based on more logical economic data.
There will be some huge opportunities for skilled traders over the next 5+ months. Get ready.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
Election Rally Sets Up Big REVERSION Shift - Stay CautiousThis quick video was initiated to show you how the ES/NQ are setting up new #2 Excess Phase Peak patterns after the overnight rally.
Then I took a look at Gold/Silver.
We are seeing a very broad shift into a reversion phase where the markets may move into a PANIC type of DEEP-V low over the next 48+ hours.
The move in metals (related to the US Dollar rally), will likely result in a DEEP-V base/bottom - prompting a fairly strong recovery/rally phase in metals over the next 2+ weeks.
Take a look at what happened during the COVID crisis. The same type of PANIC selling/shift took place then.
The Dollar rallies on expectations/policy/or a crisis. This puts very strong pressure on Metals.
Then, the markets settle into a reasonable expectation (post-event) and the US Dollar settles. But metals have been deeply undervalued because of the PANIC selling.
Metals then move strongly back to the upside - removing to the pre-crisis price level, then move even higher as metals attempt to hedge risks related to the post-event/crisis economy.
Get ready. This could be one of the biggest opportunities of your life.
Get Some
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SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 11-6 : Breakaway Post-ElectionWow. All I can say is WOW.
Keeping a different schedule related to the markets had me in bed at about 9PM California time. Yea, I missed most of it last night. But my wife woke me up at midnight to tell me who won.
When I got up this morning (early) and checked the markets, it sure looked like the world voted in favor of the Trump win, with a solid 2-3% rally overnight.
This is where things start to get very interesting.
We have about 70+ days until the inauguration (Jan 21, I believe). Between now and then, the US and global markets will attempt to shift towards new policies and expectations.
Part of this will come from news, but much of it will come from policy expectations.
Some sectors will shift direction. Others will extend existing trends.
Smart traders should prepare for opportunities that align with their interests and realize that we are looking at some real risks over the next 4+ years.
What I will state is I continue to believe the next 5-7+ years are the greatest opportunity of your life.
Watch my video and buckle up. The markets are seeking a new base/frequency to transition into shifting expectations.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold