NOW
BTC Analysis 4/8/18 Undeniable Buying Opportunity NEW TRENDSBTC has broken its resistance levels and continues to wow investors with the growing sentiment of buyers in the market. Within the past few weeks the price has finally flirted with the sub 6k resistances prior to the beginning of the initial volume uptrend of the crash. The bandwagon bears may have finally sold every last penny of profit since BTC became mainstream. When looking at the exponentially decreasing selloffs since the maximum price, the trends are steadily fighting and pushing through 7k resistance levels with every passing day. These pushes are defying any previous pattern seen in the market, and we could truly be seeing the development of entirely new positive trends. Hopefully this new sentiment truly signals the reversal of a bearish market that has overstayed its visit.
NOW - Negative downward momentum short from Now seems forming a negative downward omentum setup along with negative Twiggs money flow divergence. It also has Plenty of selling but mostly around 5-20%. We think it will decline from here.
* Trade Criteria *
Date First Found- March 23, 2018
Pattern/Why- Upward channel breakdown, smart money short setup.
Entry Criteria- $52.46
Exit Criteria- $45.57
Stop Loss Criteria- $55.88
Indicator Notes- Twiggs money flow deep into the negative side.
Special Note- BIG selling - over 750 million dollars. Could consider $60 September Puts (currently $5.30)
Please check back for Trade updates. (Note: Trade update is little delayed here.)
Bitcoin: BTCUSD Grinding Higher - But Raise Stops
Bitcoin: BTCUST
Last Update 01:20gmt/20:20est
Bitcoin is continuing to grind higher, still contrained by the
parallel above it.It's double topping in the near term - has to
find buyers enough to push above the high at 11490 on
Coinbase feed but will likely still get rejected by the parallel
above it even it can push higher now - but grinding upwards
towards 11765 completion target perhaps sometime around
14:30 est tomorrow. A small speed line is forming under the
lows of this break so far and bulls will be looking for it to hold
firm to avoid the risk of Bitcoin topping out in near term and
moving into a dull energy sapping sideways to downwards
movement due to lack of follow through come far east opening.
So It's Ok for swings to stay long for now in hope of 11765
later but consider raising stops to under the little dynamic by
50 points or so to trap in 300 plus points profit for the day
even it does wrong from here.
It's been hard work all day. It would be a shame not to let it
run, but also a shame to risk it slipping away. These choices
are ultimately down to profile, as usual. Any move and hold
above 11765 (could only be due to far East volume buying)
would be extremely bullish - but unlikely in the near term.
Nevertheless if wrong and we see it happen at any point over
the next 24 hours we follow long once more.
Bitcoin BTCUSD Trying Hard to Change Trends Today Bitcoin BTCUSD Trying Hard to Change Trend
Bitcoin broke above the 9537 line here and then moved up to
testthe upper parallel, making an 02:15gmt/21:15est high
within the first hour of far East opening before falling away
\again to an 08:15gmt/03:15est low right on the blue support
line at 9373 before bouncing again on European interest at the
lower levels. Now it's bounced to touch the first line of
resistance at 9537 once more and day traders are taking a fast
200 point win and cashing back out again many of whom have
shorted at the usual 06:00gmt traditional short time and made
200 down and now 200 up again. At the moment Bitcoin is still
in day-traders' and scalpers' territory with no killer swings to
trade as yet. It's still trapped in a downtrend but is at least
trying to form a higher low so far today and therefore showing
first signs that this downwave is running out of downside
momentum. In very near term it's gone into a small
continuation pattern and is trying to break above the 9537
line where fixed and dynamics converge - tiny pins below and
above price forming on 15 minute chart meaninga big battle is
raging below the surface here.
Things only begin to turn positive again now when the 9537
line is retaken and held by the bulls - that will likely lead to a
test of the upper parallel again at 9682-9715 - and then the
big test...Bitcoin has to break and hold above the 9715 level
before the last bear will back off. It would be yet another
brilliant escape act by Bitcoin if it can manage this at any
point today, attracting every bull still left in town back to the
game and should be followed higher if we see this price action
develop.
But until then Bitcoin is effectively trapped at these lower
levels and the downtrend remains in force - but it's not super-
bearish here, just mildly so - and so we need to watch it here
to see if it tries to break above the smallest parallel of the
continuation pattern - if so can follow with stops below 9480.
Otherwise we wait for lower values still.
Bitcoin: BTCUSD On Important Support Right nowBitcoin. Clock-Work 05:53 est
another 01:00 gmt low, another at 06:00gmt. And high at
10:00 - right on the upper parallel where longs who bought at
6am have closed out for 450 points - day's work done.
Now has to climb above the upper paralle and hold there on
retest once broken to turn back to bullish again from here.
Unlikely in very nearterm but it's trying hard here. We have
had 4 waves down which is standard stuff for Bitcoin so this
decline could be over but it still has some work to do to bust
above the mass of resistance gathered above it from
here...the old neck-line - can only get long from here once
the upper parallel is busted and held - all it's done so far is a
nice little counter rally to exactly where it should stop. We
got some far Eastern interest at 01.00 and some European
interest at 06:00 and now we'll need US interest to help it
move higher from here - in meantime it needs to unwind a
little. So far it's holding at 10100 but when this gives way it
should fall back to support at 9965-9855
07:07est
Last low on Bitstamp at 9935 with a nice spike under it on 15
minute - and now we have a break of the upper parallel and
test of the first line of resistance at 10254 as early birds in US
catch the worm - likely to push on up to the neckline by
14.45gmt, maybe in the 15 minute candle on US official open
- if you got long on the last dip as above stay with it and raise
stop to just under the low at 9930 for small loss if wrong from
here. Look to close out in the 10300-10350 range where fixed
and dynamic resistance begin to merge. But we 've broken the
down-trend and need to be ready to get long again when and
if that uppermost dynamic/old neck-line is broken above and
held (now at 10345) - can follow the break with stops below
10300 when it happens.
Bulls have 4 waves down which signals potential completion -
but the bears have that Head and Shoulders on their side still
- bulls gotta break that neck-line next big test - then we are
off to the races with a relief rally - but not until...day
traders are using the smallest dynamic here on 3 minute by
look of it...
09:09est
After moving sideways above the parallel for a while Bitcoin has come back to life as expected with US opening. Now testing the target at 10300-10350 with a spike high at 10372 on bitfinex....so closed out and looking to buy again lower , maybe only as low as 10300 ...
09:14
Had to get that uploaded quickly - so this is looking good again - has just poked above the dynamic/old neck-line on Bitstamp which is the big test now...buying across 3 continents - just neeed to beware a suck in here though...but if it can hold up here above 10350 and the dynamic this is going to rally very well now...
Bitcoin: BTCUST Massive Bull Breakout maintained - stay long Bitcoin Coinbase Chart Massive Bull Break Maintained Overnight. Stay long to 12090
The break stayed good overnight and the far East bought
into it too...not massively but still a good sign of returning
confidence world-wide as all the bad news begins to dry up.
This break out is so important and so far technically perfect
on Coinbase chart - and shows how, once price beat the last
dynamic above it Bitcoin surged upwards, shackles undone.
The next part of the Bitcoin puzzle is to look more closely at
the reverse head and shoulders to see how likely it is to be
trustworthy from here. First off the last one failed - and
actually went on to form the right hand shoulder of this larger
RHS - whilst Bitcoin was still in the middle of a downtrend,
which with today's price action is now effectively over - the
only disconcerting thing about this RHS is that it's a little too
prefect technically. Can it be too good to be true? Too
obvious? Why? On The Coinbase chart this reverse head and
shoulders has a minimum upside of 3216 points added to the
break out level/neck-line at 8874 - creating a minimum
upside target at 12090 on Coinbase. Stay with it
Bitcoin BTCUSD Rocking it but up against important resistance Bitcoin Bitstamp
Bitstamp
Rocking It but coming to important resistance here too - can stay long to 8545 if day trading - and if intending to run it would still use the dynamic under price as exit as it can still have one more collapse...don't stay too full-on bullish unless 8545 can be busted above now....needs to consolidate some really but it's Bitcoin. It does what it wants. Day traders will close out and get long lower or if not and it powers through 8545 they have to buy back again once it does...
Bitcoin: BTCUSD First Signs of a Bottom in SightBitcoin BTCUSD Update Next Buy and Sell Points
We have a low here on Bitstamp at 5920, on Bitfinex at
exactly 6000 and on Coinbase at 5873 - so far. Earlier in
London Bitcoin has been driven up through the upper parallel
that has been controlling this sell-wave from yesterday. It's
the first early sign that this is getting close to the bottom
now. It's finally trying to put up a fight here at these lower
levels...so on downside will not be looking for another short
unless 5900 is broken on Bitstamp and 6000 is broken on
Bitfinex - and even then will only be for 300 points or so to
5636 and if so will be looking to reverse long again at this
point if struck with stops 100 below
On the upside it's nothing more than a speccy buy at 6300
with a stop below 6200 - it's more risky than buying the
breakout as we don't know for sure that 6200 will hold out
yet. Otherwise we stand by for a potential break above the
upper parallel, looking for a successful restest from above
once broken...it then has to break above 6610 and hold there
to give us confirmation that the rally is good to go - look to
enter long positions if we see this price action develop.
Otherwise will look to get long again from lower levels later.
DXY Dollar Index: Approaching reversal pointDXY Dollar Index
Long Term
We've been aggressively bearish of the Dollar since that first
break below 98.5 back in early May last year. Down another
11% since then it's coming time finally to think about reversing
back long again soon. DXY has already hit and bounced from
the support line at 88.44. Below here lies a long term dynamic
support line which has effectively stalled all Dollar declines
since 2011. It lies at 87.70 and even if DXY suffers one last
decline from here it should halt at 88.44 and at absolute
worst at 87.70 during the course of this week - we should see
the final low put in this weekcoming , and likely by the
following week at latest if we don't hit the bottom this week.
Look to close out most shorts across the dollar pairs into this
final selling climax if we see it materialise over the next few
days. Swing traders should now, finally, be looking to follow
suit too.
DXY Shorter Term
Last week DXY made a new low at 88.44 before bouncing 1%
to 89.51 resistance line with a high at 89.53...The 88.44 level
is one of two likely levels to look for a reversal in trend, the
other being the longer term dynamic support line, at 87.70
now. If the first level is to be the reversal point DXY will
continue rallying from here and not break below the tiny
rising dynamic directly under price right now...then comes
the bigger test: it has to break above the upper parallel and
break 89.53 and then hold on the retest - that would flip DXY
back to near term positive and send it back to 92.62 and the
falling dynamic resistance line shown on the chart above,
where it's next major challenge will most likely lie. Follow
that break if we see it materialise at any point this week
Downside
If in the alternative DXY loses the little dynamic holding it up
and then falls below 88.88 it will fall back to 88.44 again and
if it cannot base there and make a double bottom it will fall
away to the second key level at 87.70 - at which point it
should start to find some support. If so start closing out dollar
shorts and look to build longs from here. Otherwise, the
safer/less risky option for swing traders is to forget about
bottom fishing wait to see at what point DXY finally exits the
upper parallel of this impulse wave - which has, so far,
controlled all upside potential for DXY throughout this
current down-wave - and follow that break when it eventually
comes, looking for 92.60 initially.
ENJ/BTC Ascending BUTT pattern LONGEnj/btc Has been showing an ascending butt pattern.
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Bitcoin BTCUSD Back in the buy-ZoneBitcoin BTCUSD
If stopped out on the break below the first support at 11385 it
means a small win of a couple of hundred points overnight.
This is the reason we use stops. But Bitcoin is back in the buy
zone and looks good to buy again ay 10600 and down to 10500
on any dips from here with a stop below 10450
there is 5000 to 9000 points of upside potential and 200 down
from here if stops continue to be used.