Swing Trading Strategy: HDFC Bank (HDFCBANK)Stock Outlook:
I maintain a bullish outlook on HDFC Bank (HDFCBANK) with a swing trade target of ₹1913.15 by February 27, 2025. This target aligns with the current technical and market trends indicating upward momentum.
Stop Loss Strategy:
To manage downside risk, ₹1600 has been identified as a crucial support level. Any daily settlement below this level will signal a potential breakdown, and positions should be exited accordingly.
Key Notes:
Risk Management: Ensure position sizing aligns with your overall risk tolerance.
Timeframe: This strategy is based on a swing trading approach and is meant to capitalize on short- to medium-term market movements.
Disclaimer:
This trading strategy is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Market conditions are subject to change, and all trades carry risks. Please consult a financial advisor or conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Niftytrend
NIFTY : Trading Levels and Plan for 23-Dec-202423-Dec-2024 Nifty Trading Plan
On last trading session prices met with the targets on breaking and sustaining below mentioned levels and met with all targets on down side. Strategies for upcoming trading session
Color-Coding:
Yellow: Sideways trend. Green: Bullish trend. Red: Bearish trend.
23-Dec-2024 Trading Scenarios:
Gap Up Opening (+100 points):
If Nifty opens above 23,953 but below 24,058 , expect initial resistance at 24,058 . Watch for rejection signals such as bearish candlestick patterns (e.g., pin bars or engulfing) to initiate short trades targeting 23,747-23,603 .
However, if prices sustain above 24,058 , this zone transforms into support, indicating bullish sentiment. Enter long trades cautiously above 24,058 with targets of 24,300-24,400 . Use a stop loss at 23,950 .
Flat Opening:
A flat opening near 23,631-23,603 suggests the no-trade zone remains intact. Wait for a breakout above 23,747 or a breakdown below 23,603 .
Above 23,747: Long trades targeting 23,953-24,058 .
Below 23,603: Short trades targeting 23,281-23,194 . Use stop losses based on an hourly close for safer risk management.
Gap Down Opening (-100 points or more):
A gap down below 23,603 places immediate focus on the buyer’s support zone at 23,281-23,194 . Look for bullish reversal patterns (e.g., hammer or bullish engulfing) within this zone to initiate long trades.
If prices break below 23,194 , bearish momentum could intensify. Short trades targeting 23,000-22,850 become viable. Maintain a stop loss above 23,281 for these positions.
Risk Management Tips for Options Trading:
Use defined risk strategies like buying options or limited-loss spreads.
Avoid aggressive averaging when trades move against your position.
Always calculate the maximum loss potential before entering trades.
Exit positions if the index stays in the no-trade zone for extended periods.
Summary & Conclusion:
Nifty’s trading action on 23-Dec-2024 will revolve around the critical zones discussed. Respect the defined levels and avoid impulsive trades within the no-trade zone. Wait for confirmation before entering trades to maximize risk-reward ratios.
Disclaimer:
I am not a SEBI-registered analyst. This analysis is for educational purposes only. Please consult your financial advisor before making trading decisions.
#Nifty50 outlook for upcoming week 23-27th Dec 2024The Nifty experienced a tumultuous week, plummeting roughly 1200 points to close at 23587 after reaching a high of 24781 and a low of 23537. This sharp decline was largely attributed to a hawkish stance from the US Federal Reserve, triggering a sell-off in the US market and prompting significant Foreign Institutional Investor (FII) selling in India. The 5% correction from its peak has brought the Nifty dangerously close to the crucial WEMA50 support level at 23426. However, there are signs of a potential bullish reversal forming a 'W' pattern. Sustaining above 23426 will be critical for a market turnaround.
Next week, I expect a volatile trading range between 24100 and 23000 . A breach of these levels could lead to significant market moves. The monthly Nifty chart also indicates weakness, suggesting further downside potential towards the 22250 support level, representing a 5.7% decline from current levels.
This presents a valuable opportunity for investors to prepare a watchlist of their preferred stocks and strategically accumulate positions during any further market correction
Nifty Weekend Update...alert!!!!Hey guys, currently nifty this week fall more then 4%, due to holidays FII are selling highly.
If you see the chart you can see nifty currently just above of 50WMA after huge selling pressure it still above the 50WMA, if this will break next week onwards we will enter a bear market for short term period, so in my opinion this is now a crucial moment so keep cash in hand for buying in the dip.
Another scenario if nifty will bounce break from this level or first breaking 50wma then trap all bears and then bounce back above 50WMA that will also good for nifty to continue its trend to 30K.
Three Year Parallel Channel of Nifty with Multiple indicators. We have tried to draw a Three Year Parallel Channel of Nifty with Multiple indicators. We will try to understand what is happening as per each indicator and try to get the jist of moves that may occur with a medium to long term perspective.
Indicator 1) Parallel Channel: The parallel channel indicates that after hitting the channel top at 26277 the Nifty is receding and is on a search of it's bottom from where it can launch forward again. That is the case when every time Nifty has it a channel top as you can see in the chart. The Future Channel Top once Nifty picks up the next Bull run seems to be around 29497 as per the parallel channel. Mid channel support of the parallel channel is around 23500 zone which can support Nifty. If we get a weekly closing below 23500 this level will become a resistance. In such a scenario of weekly closing below 23500 Channel bottom seems to be near 21296.
Indicator 2) Fibonacci Retracement: Fibonacci retracement suggests a bottom near 23263. If this level is broken there is a possibility of Nifty falling to the next fibonacci supports will be at 22506 and 21577. Once the Bull run begins the next resistance levels as per Fibonacci seem to be at 24725, 26777 (Previous high), 27162 and finally 28331.
Indicator 3) Bollinger Band: Support with respect to lower width of Bollinger Band seems to be near 23340. Mid Bollinger band resistance seems to be near 24660 and Bollinger band upper width resistances seems to be near 25981.
Indicator 4) RSI or the Relative Strength Index: RSI currently is at 44.41 and going downwards showing weakness. The RSI support can be found in the zone of 40, 38 or 36. Usually When RSI is below 30 the stock or index is considered oversold and when the stock or index RSI is above 70 it is considered overbought. RSI Below 20 is extremely oversold zone and RSI above 80 is considered extremely overbought.
Indicator 5) MACD or Moving Average Convergence and Divergence: MACD is a combination of Moving averages lines which tend to indicate direction in which stock or index will move and histograms indicate strength or weakness of a rally. As per MACD Nifty right now is in extreme Bear grip and will take a little time to recover. When the Blue line will start moving upwards and when it might cross the red line and continue to move upwards it can be considered as Nifty will come back to Bull Zone. Colour of histograms at that time will also start going Dark Green or light Green.
Indicator 6) 50 and 200 weeks EMA or the Mother and Father line: I have designed a theory called Mother, Father and Small Child Theory. As per this theory the movement of index or a stock in the chart is like a movement of a 3 year old child when it goes to a garden. The movement of 50 EMA is like movement of the mother and movement of the 200 EMA is like movement of a Father of that child. To know more about this theory or other indicators mentioned earlier you need to read my book THE HAPPY CANDLES WAY TO WEALTH CREATION. This book is available in Amazon in paperback or Kindle version. It is one of the Highest rated book in the category. Have a look at that book it will help you immensely in your wealth creation journey. Now as per this theory the Nifty right now is at 23587. 50 Weeks EMA is at 23403. 200 Weeks EMA is at 19335. as the Nifty is above these levels both these levels will work as a great support to Nifty and can help Nifty from falling further.
Conclusion: Nifty is approaching multiple supports from where it has potential to turnaround. Mid channel support is around 23500, 50 Weeks EMA support or the Mother line is at 23403. 23340 is the Bollinger band lower band width support. Fibonacci support is at 23263. We can see a turnaround mostly from either of these three supports. If these supports are broken by chance (looks less likely but you can never say never) then the next supports will be at 22507, 21296 or worst case scenario as of now looks like 19335. On the upper side resistances seem to be at 24660 Fibonacci mid resistance, 24725 is the Fibonacci resistance, 25981 is Bollinger band upper width resistance and 26277 is the Fibonacci resistnace which also the previous high of Nifty. Once this zone is crossed in a long term we can reach the targets of 27162 Fibonacci resistance, 28331 Fibonacci golden ratio resistnace and 29497 which is the approximate nex channel top. (This is the Medium to Long term outlook of Nifty).
This is how you can analyse any index or a stock using the 6 indicators mentioned in the writeup. I give top most priority to these 6 indicators in my analysis.
Disclaimer: Disclaimer: The above information is provided for educational purpose, analysis and paper trading only. Please don't treat this as a buy or sell recommendation for the stock. We do not guarantee any success in highly volatile market or otherwise. Stock market investment is subject to market risks which include global and regional risks. We will not be responsible for any Profit or loss that may occur due to any financial decision taken based on any data provided in this message.
nifty 50NSE:NIFTY
WAIT and Watch!
Could be Tricky!!!!!
lets see, Fingers crossed.
Note :
1. One should go long with a StopLoss, below the Trendline or the Previous Swing Low.
2. Risk :Reward ratio should be minimum 1:2.
3. Plan your trade as per the Money Mangement and Risk Appetite.
Disclamier : You are responsible for your profits and loss.
The idea shared here is purely for Educational purpose.
Follow back, for more ideas and thier notifications on your email.
Support and Like incase the idea works for you.
The Nifty spot intraday trend forecast for December 23, 2024The Nifty spot intraday trend for December 23rd indicates a bearish outlook. With the previous support level breached, the next strong support is at 23,020. However, it is important to note that timing plays a crucial role in all market activities. Our bearish outlook is expected to continue until December 27th, 2024.
Please be aware that the mentioned levels may vary due to potential gaps on either side. This content is intended solely for educational purposes, and I strongly advise against trading in derivatives.
#NIFTY Intraday Support and Resistance Levels - 20/12/2024Flat or slightly gap down opening expected in nifty. After opening if nifty starts trading below 23950 level then possible strong downside rally upto 23750 level. Any bullish rally only expected if nifty starts trading and sustain above 24050 level. 23950-24050 levels are the consolidation zone for nifty.
Can The Major Support Zone Save Nifty From Falling Further?There is a triple Support zone that has been reached by Nifty. The Zone between today's low that is 23870 and 23692 has multiple supports of a trend line and Father Line of 200 day's EMA. Let us see if we have a revival from here. If that will be the case the next resistance zones will be 24019, 24175, 24416(Major Mother Line Resistance of 50 day's EMA) and 24529 (Major Trend Line Resistance).
If the support of 23870 is broken we will have to rely upon 23962 that is the major 200 day's EMa of Father line. If we get a closing below 23692 or the Father line. Bears will become more powerful and we may see them control the game. In such a scenario the supports will be at 23350, 23088 and 22828. So very critical weekly closing tomorrow. Shadow of the candle for tomorrow is neutral to negative.
Disclaimer: The above information is provided for educational purpose, analysis and paper trading only. Please don't treat this as a buy or sell recommendation for the stock. We do not guarantee any success in highly volatile market or otherwise. Stock market investment is subject to market risks which include global and regional risks. We will not be responsible for any Profit or loss that may occur due to any financial decision taken based on any data provided in this message.
NIFTY - Trading Levels and Plan for 20-Dec-2024Intro: Review of the Previous Day’s Plan
After a gap down opening, prices saw first phase of recovery but could not find follow on support and traded in a narrow range. Let’s analyze potential scenarios for today.
Plan for Different Opening Scenarios
Gap-Up Opening (100+ points above 24,014):
A gap-up above 24,014 places Nifty near the resistance zone or even at 24,103. The focus should be on observing price action for either a breakout or a rejection.
Plan of Action:
If Nifty approaches 24,227, monitor for bearish rejection signals (e.g., shooting stars or bearish engulfing patterns) to initiate short positions targeting 24,103 and 24,014. Stop loss can be placed above 24,250.
For a breakout above 24,227, wait for an hourly close and consider long trades targeting 24,300 or higher. Stop loss below 24,200.
Key Tips: For options, consider OTM calls if a breakout occurs. Hedge positions using vertical spreads to cap potential losses.
Flat Opening (Within 23,900-24,000 range):
A flat opening keeps Nifty in the sideways zone (yellow trend). Early market movement will determine directionality.
Plan of Action:
If Nifty sustains above 24,014, initiate longs targeting 24,103 and 24,227. Use a stop loss below 23,950.
If the index slips below 23,900, initiate shorts targeting 23,877 and 23,748 with a stop loss above 24,000.
Key Tips: A flat opening is ideal for option straddle/strangle setups. Close positions if volatility contracts or movement remains indecisive.
Gap-Down Opening (100+ points below 23,877):
A gap-down below 23,877 places Nifty near support or bearish breakdown zones. Focus on price action around 23,748 or 23,604.
Plan of Action:
If Nifty holds above 23,748, initiate long positions with targets at 23,877 and 23,961, keeping a stop loss below 23,700.
A breakdown below 23,748 opens further downside to 23,604. Initiate shorts below this level with targets at 23,500 or lower. Stop loss above 23,800.
Key Tips: In gap-down scenarios, avoid panic trades. For options, consider OTM puts or debit spreads for bearish strategies.
Risk Management Tips for Options Trading:
Never risk more than 2% of your capital on a single trade.
Use a mix of ATM and OTM options for balanced risk/reward setups.
Exit trades promptly if Nifty deviates from the expected plan.
Monitor implied volatility; avoid overpaying for options in low-volatility environments.
Summary and Conclusion:
Today’s plan revolves around key levels: 24,014, 23,877, and 23,748. The yellow trend indicates likely consolidation, the green trend highlights bullish potential, and the red trend shows bearish zones. Patience and disciplined execution are crucial for trading success. Let price action confirm your trades before entering positions.
Disclaimer:
I am not a SEBI-registered analyst. This analysis is for educational purposes only. Please consult your financial advisor before making any trading decisions.
Sentiment Cycle Indicator Performance (PAID)Performance Analysis of the Sentiment Cycle Indicator
1. Trend Identification:
• The indicator has effectively highlighted bullish and bearish sentiment zones, as shown by the green (bullish) and red (bearish) background shading. This visual clarity makes it easy for traders to identify the prevailing market sentiment at a glance.
2. Buy and Sell Signals:
• The Buy signals are well-timed, capturing upward price movements, especially during key reversal zones.
• The Sell signals occur consistently in areas where bearish momentum starts to dominate, allowing traders to exit or short positions effectively.
3. Key Trades Observed:
• Buy Example: Around the recent low near $100,000, the indicator generated a buy signal right before a significant upward move, aligning well with the trend shift.
• Sell Example: Near $105,000, the indicator provided a sell signal ahead of a downward move, protecting traders from holding during the drop.
4. Market Choppiness Handling:
• Even during sideways or choppy markets, the indicator avoids excessive false signals due to its clear sentiment zone shading, helping traders stay on the right side of the market.
Why This Indicator Stands Out
1. Simplifies Complex Market Trends:
• By combining sentiment analysis with buy/sell signals, the indicator provides traders with a comprehensive toolkit for decision-making.
2. Dynamic Market Adaptation:
• The indicator adapts to real-time price movements, ensuring timely and accurate signals without lagging.
3. Perfect for Scalping and Swing Trading:
• Traders can use the sentiment zones for scalping in smaller timeframes and for swing trading over longer horizons.
Nifty Bears Take Charge – 630 Points Secured with Risological InNifty 15-Minute timeframe short trade achieved a massive 630-point profit using the Risological Trading Indicator.
Trade Details:
Short Entry: 17th December, 9:15 AM
Exit: 19th December, 3:20 PM
Total Points Captured: 630 points
Technical Breakdown:
This trade showcased the precision and reliability of the Risological Trading Indicator. The indicator identified a clear bearish trend early on, enabling a high-conviction short entry. The trend persisted across multiple sessions, allowing the trade to capture a significant downward movement before closing out with a sizable profit.
#NIFTY This PUT Targeting 1100 % PUMP#NIFTY This PUT Targeting 1100 % PUMP..
There is an expectation of a major correction in Nifty, which could lead to a pump of over 1100% in this put. Option trading should be done with caution, keeping in mind the risks and proper risk management.
NIFTY : Prediction levels and plan for 19-Dec-2024
Intro: Previous Day's Plan vs Actual
In yesterday's chart, we observed Nifty approaching a deep retracement zone (113% level at 24,098) and tested the must-try zone for Wave C completion as highlighted. Price remained within the "No Trade Zone" for a considerable period, indicating indecision and sideways movement. The sideways yellow trend was respected, with no significant breakout.
Now, for 19-Dec-2024, we will plan the opening scenarios considering a gap opening of 100+ points in either direction, or a flat opening, using key levels for action.
Trading Scenarios for 19-Dec-2024
Gap Up Opening (100+ points):
If Nifty opens above the Opening Resistance for Retracement at 24,359, this signals initial strength.
- Monitor the first 30 minutes for price action confirmation. If Nifty sustains above 24,359, we may see a move towards the Last Intraday Resistance at 24,488 (red level).
- Aggressive traders can look for long opportunities with a stop loss placed at 24,227 (blue level) on an hourly candle-close basis.
- However, failure to sustain above 24,359 can lead to a retracement back towards the No Trade Zone (24,169).
- Action Plan:
- If the price closes an hourly candle above **24,359**, initiate longs with **targets** at **24,488**.
- If it fails to hold above, avoid fresh trades and wait for price to return to the retracement zone.
Flat Opening:
If Nifty opens near the No Trade Zone (24,169 - 24,227), caution is required. A sideways price action is likely within this range.
- Price needs to break out from this "No Trade Zone" to give clear direction.
- Upside breakout above 24,227 could lead to a retracement test towards 24,359.
- Downside breakdown below 24,169 can trigger a test of the Wave C correction zone at 24,098 - 24,029.
- Action Plan:
- Avoid trading in the "No Trade Zone" to minimize risk.
- For longs, wait for a confirmed breakout above **24,227**.
- For shorts, wait for a breakdown below **24,169**, targeting **24,098** first and then **24,029**.
Gap Down Opening (100+ points):
If Nifty opens near or below the Must Try Zone at Wave C completion (24,098 - 24,029), it signals a bearish start.
- Watch for signs of support formation in this range. A strong bounce can lead to a reversal back toward 24,169.
- However, if Nifty fails to hold this zone and breaks 24,029, further downside towards 23,600 could unfold (red trend).
- Action Plan:
- Look for buying opportunities if price holds above **24,029** with confirmation on the hourly chart.
- If **24,029** breaks decisively, initiate short positions targeting **23,600**, with a stop loss above **24,098**.
Risk Management Tips for Options Traders :
Always use stop losses based on an hourly candle close to manage risks.
Avoid trading in uncertain zones (e.g., "No Trade Zone") where the risk-reward ratio is unfavorable.
For options, consider deploying spreads (e.g., Bull Call Spread or Bear Put Spread) to limit risk during gap openings.
Avoid chasing trades in case of a sharp gap-up or gap-down; let the price stabilize for 30 minutes.
Summary and Conclusion:
Nifty remains at a critical juncture near the Wave C correction completion zone.
Key Levels to Watch:
Upside: 24,227, 24,359, 24,488
Downside: 24,169, 24,098, 24,029, and 23,600
Focus on breakouts or breakdowns for actionable trades, avoiding sideways moves.
The yellow trend reflects sideways movement, green indicates a bullish reversal, and red shows bearish continuation.
Disclaimer: I am not a SEBI-registered analyst. This trading plan is for educational purposes only. Traders should conduct their analysis or consult a financial advisor before making decisions.
As Expected Mother Line resistance has come into playAs we had expected in Yesterday's message the closing below Mother line yesterday meant that Mother line resistance was supposed to come into play today and it did. Nifty made a high of 24394 and ominous mother line resistance was near by as can be seen in the chart and Nifty got rejected from there. Now Nifty is tossed into bottom searching mode. Today's low that is 24149.85 was a support zone and we saw a closing above it at 24198 which is the silver lining in the cloud. If 24150 is respected tomorrow we can start seeing some range bound upside. If the support of 24150 is not respected and we get a closing below this level the further supports for Nifty will be at 23904, 23803 or Strong Father line support at 23689. If 23689 is broken we can see a low of 23291 or so as of now.
On the positive side if the support of 24150 is respected by Nifty the resistances on the upside will be near 24311, 24435 (Strong Mother line resistance), 24627, 24793 or even 24960. 24960 is a strong resistance to cross but if and when it is crossed we can see more upside as Bulls will start calling shots above this level.
Thus the most critical supports are 24150 and 23689. Most critical resistances will be 24435 as of now.
Disclaimer: The above information is provided for educational purpose, analysis and paper trading only. Please don't treat this as a buy or sell recommendation for the stock. We do not guarantee any success in highly volatile market or otherwise. Stock market investment is subject to market risks which include global and regional risks. We will not be responsible for any Profit or loss that may occur due to any financial decision taken based on any data provided in this message.
The Nifty spot intraday trend forecast for December 19, 2024The Nifty intraday trend is likely to be bearish tomorrow ie December 19, 2024. The positional trend also looks bearish till the end of the month. There are strong support zones for Nifty spot on the positional side at 23678 and 23381 by end of December 2024.
For the positional Nifty trend forecast chart, please refer to the post dated on 30th November 2024 published for Trading view members only.
The content provided here is only for the educational purposes.
#NIFTY Intraday Support and Resistance Levels - 18/12/2024Today will be gap down opening expected in nifty. After opening if nifty starts trading below 24250 level then strong fall expected upto 200+ points. Any upside rally only expected if nifty susitan above the 24300 level. Upside 23500 level act as a strong resistance for today's session.