Nifty Short, Medium and Long Term review-03-Oct-23 to 06-Oct-23Nifty Short, Medium and Long Term review-04-Oct-23 to 06-Oct-23 (Could not post from week starting from 03-Oct-23)
Nifty closed at 19528(19674)and touched low & high of 19481 and 19766.
RSI level down from 46% to 43 & Stochastics 30% to 6% respectively.
Stochastic & RSI- Moving further moving down and getting Bottom out.
Nifty broke below Ist Support at 19600 ( Fib Resistance) last week, but holding the next short term Support provided ( Fib Resitance at 19320/19467).
Hence Maintaining the same support level & Resistance level as provided in last week.
Nifty Bank is having attractive valuation.
Buy on dip call on SBI & ICICI Bank , Axis Bank given on 13-Aug-23, Can Continue to buy for long term. Can add BOB, canara bank on dips. To watch for bottoming out of Kotak Bank, can add for long term.
Nifty- Short Term (Neutral to Bearish)
Strong Support at 19300-19600 (Fib Resitance at 19320/19467)
Also there is a support at 19224 (Previous Low)
Resistance at 19724/19840/19990
Nifty Medium Term & long Term -
As market in overbought zone there will be a correction.
Resistance at 20221 ( Prev High ) / 20500
Further to review the Q2 results. To review once Nifty reaches target.
Strong Resistance at 18800
Niftybank
BANKNIFTY ANALYSIS FOR 4th OCT 2023-FOR EDUCATION PURPOSEBANKNIFTY ANALYSIS FOR 4th OCT 2023-FOR EDUCATION PURPOSE
This video is for educational purpose and my personal view . We are NOT SEBI registered Advisor, we only give the level on our practical trading experience. Kindly take the trade according to your risk and reward position and consulting your advisor. It is advisable to take the advice of SEBI registered advisor.
@vijayanjum
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NIFTYBANK:- The 60/40 approach!60/40 is the popular investment strategy that has gone terribly wrong to the international investors. If any it might turn out to be the third year in row. While the liquidity is pouring in the bonds (safety?), the bets for yields fall is coming down. The recent up-move of USD is anything but a factor of another 25 basis point move higher in terms of cost. Not referring directly to us, but in general. FED's Kashkari comments that there is 40% chance rates to go higher pushes the hawkish tone further. He is voting member. His comments about economy hitting soft landing with 60% chances echos mixed voices. (read our last week comments on economy in the substack). With Crude at elevated levels, next week our MPC, higher US dollar, post the Bond Inclusion, it is interesting to take a look at our own bond yields. The graph PIP shows the price action is held the long supply line, now in the shape of bull flag. So, the corrections to continue but the yields appear based. Note the shape of the correction and continuation needs to be read in different ways based on different asset classes, there are no one fit all scales. What is interesting to note with the recent up and down moves, on a three month scale this index is down 120 points. That is, we are where we were three months back. Completely dominated by the PSU pack. On the Index this is not the story, in otherwards, this looks much more beaten than the main index. 44400-44900 are the range to watch and hold before next meaningful move. The banking stocks elsewhere are not in favourable places, partly due to the market-to-market losses, squeeze in NIMS and the broader economic outlook or is there a credit event in the waiting. Citi Share price down near 50% from 80 to 40, mathematically it needs 100% move to reach where it was. Thankfully we are not in that pack. For the day continue grudging moves down first flat next kind of a day one can expect.
BANKNIFTY ANALYSIS FOR 27th September 2023-FOR EDUCATION PURPOSEBANKNIFTY ANALYSIS FOR 27th September 2023-FOR EDUCATION PURPOSE
This video is for educational purpose and my personal view . We are NOT SEBI registered Advisor, we only give the level on our practical trading experience. Kindly take the trade according to your risk and reward position and consulting your advisor. It is advisable to take the advice of SEBI registered advisor.
@vijayanjum
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NIFTYBANK:- "Small is beautiful"Big headlines, big data, big banks, all in bearish tone. Either the ongoing diplomatic news, economic headlines, or the big hank HDFC on the decent. It is not leaders' problem; it is followers' problem. While it is important to note to follow the big picture, it is not always keeps one on the winning side. There are occasions very much valid, as all big pictures are part of the small picture at some point of time or other. Coming here the small is the PSU Bank space, each day one counter or the other is rising should use the word powering to the top piercing all the 52-week high. There is empirical evidence to suggest any momentum that holds and moves past the 52 weeks that space continues to beat the market for the following year. That is huge input to hold faith. Nifty bank hit recently the lowest low of this move around the 44400 area. The subsequent move towards 45000 held. Ideally this is the supply zone. Alternatively, any break of this should move higher. Thus, the selection of the small frames today. Clearly it holds the Inv. H and S pattern and any break of this will move higher by another 400 points to say the least. Attempting a long on any dips to 44650-700 or writing the puts remains the approach (take the shortest expiry as built in risk reward trade) or hedge appropriately. Next week is crucial with MPC and US data. On the US yields they have hit the max and cluster of price action may potentially push the curve to crawl. Crude is stabilising and has so far not threatened us. Markets slowly absorbing the bond Index inclusion, sanity returns, FX returns to its usual mode. Trade Small, the small frame, big the big frame remains suggestion always.
BANKNIFTY ANALYSIS FOR 26TH September 2023-FOR EDUCATION PURPOSEBANKNIFTY ANALYSIS FOR 26TH September 2023-FOR EDUCATION PURPOSE
This video is for educational purpose and my personal view . We are NOT SEBI registered Advisor, we only give the level on our practical trading experience. Kindly take the trade according to your risk and reward position and consulting your advisor. It is advisable to take the advice of SEBI registered advisor.
@vijayanjum
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NIFTYBANK: "Old Leader, New Escort"Two events one inference always makes interesting ends. The Old twins, now the HDFC Bank leads the fall tanking more than 4%. Being the heavy weight pushes the broader market sentiment to the negative. PSU banks all the pack held the fort, but unable to eke out any gains in the broader assault. In the end profit taking hits. The FII and DII numbers and the cues from global markets, post the FOMC clearly pushes the bulls on the back foot. Another news where Escorts group will enter the NBFC markets, one has to wait and see how this is going to impact. One more time failure of NIFTY BANK that we lost 45800 without a fight is huge set back. Back to larger range of 45000-46000. Ability of the large cap banks to shift the needle today remains in doubt. Next week is another story all together. Closed at crucial important level, but cues remain suspicious. If seen in the open around 45100 is a buy for move to flat, but the broader strokes remain very cautious and down. Prefer 45100-45800 range, with bias to buy the dips than to sell here. Action in small PSU banks would give cues, the profit taking mode of the bulls before consolidation and ascent starts. For now, take some bets off and wait for clarity looks apt.
NIFTY:- Plot thickens, thoughts thin!Much expected FOMC decision comes to pause. Equity moved more or less in green and higher, but in the end they tanked. No cuts for another one year rattle the markets, in addition to the median forecasts raising the rates by 50 bps. Dependency on incoming data, if one were to add the recent pick up in asset prices, surely points to higher. Yields further gallop, USD follow the suit and remain very known moves than known moves. FED sends clear message the JOB is not done. This is despite the fact and admission from FED that real rates are higher. The resolve to see inflation won't return until sees the end, remains negative to host of asset classes. Equity to hit the red button first and EM included. Elsewhere German PPI tanks, sending the inflationary outlook to the downward. Later in the day we have BOE rate decision, tomorrow BOJ in between you have South Africa rate decision. Every Central Banker moves remains the cues to understand what they see about the inflation. Brazil pauses. Bulls pause, yesterday moves are larger than expected and pushes the bears in the front. Clearly 19980 caps now while we stare around the 19500-600 area. Big picture if we break 19300 not the intended path though will bring more losses. Rush to take profit on mid and small caps are sufficient reasons to be on the guard. A bird in hand is two in the bush remains the happy approach. The enclosed graph is weekly and does not appear great, the simple appearance of negative divergence and market's reaction suggests that we are back to corrective moves. Still reckon not a U turn but caution needs a pat. For the day shorts below 19960 for move towards 19780.
BANKNIFTY ANALYSIS FOR 21ST September 2023-FOR EDUCATION PURPOSEBANKNIFTY ANALYSIS FOR 21ST September 2023-FOR EDUCATION PURPOSE
This video is for educational purpose and my personal view . We are NOT SEBI registered Advisor, we only give the level on our practical trading experience. Kindly take the trade according to your risk and reward position and consulting your advisor. It is advisable to take the advice of SEBI registered advisor.
@vijayanjum
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BANKNIFTY ANALYSIS FOR 20th September 2023-FOR EDUCATION PURPOSEBANKNIFTY ANALYSIS FOR 20th September 2023-FOR EDUCATION PURPOSE
This video is for educational purpose and my personal view . We are NOT SEBI registered Advisor, we only give the level on our practical trading experience. Kindly take the trade according to your risk and reward position and consulting your advisor. It is advisable to take the advice of SEBI registered advisor.
@vijayanjum
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NIFTYBANK: Musch desired "IRR'A-tionalIn recent times trades faced glitches on execution, many incurred heavy losses. the new platform by the regulators, Investor Risk Reduction Access (IRRA) platform to address technical glitches and outages is a welcome move. However, this is not available to the ALGO traders. This clearly helps the novice traders as well as classical traders, to reduce this risk. It is always the case of new risks emerging and there is no reason why there will no zero risk at any point of time. While we talk on IRR, the irrationality of the markets remains. Nifty bank is in its path to ATH. The only hurdle is tomorrow being the holiday. Will that stop the bulls from piercing to the ATH. The PSU back reverts to the bullish view all over, still does not appear to be a crowded space yet. It is more like, I missed it this space. Incoming FED meet, elevated Crude prices, and rising US Yields as well as the US Dollar are some of the concerns, but they are collectively not a consideration to change the trend. The question is will it be a vertical move up for ATH or will there be a correction before the climb. This space is known for the U turns at crucial areas, despite the underlying trend being continuation. This can potentially be true this time also. However, that is an opportunity to get the bags of bulls. 45800-46500 is the new range, out of the old range just two months back. Bias to the upside, basing around 46080-45880.
Nifty Short, Medium and Long Term review - 18-Sep-23 to 22-Sep-2Nifty Short, Medium and Long Term review - 18-Sep-23 to 22-Sep-23
Nifty closed at 20192(19822) and touched low & high of 19854 and 20219.
Nifty long call was given two weeks before. As expected nifty moved up above 20000 & 20150.
RSI and Stochastic level rised from 72 to 76 % & 93 to 96% respectively.
Stochastic currently in overbought zone for last two weeks. RSI- There is chance for one more move up.
Nifty- Short Term ( Neutral)
If market move above 20200
Resistance at 20450 ( Fib 1.618 Resistance Shown) and also crucial resistance around 20500 (Shown in Red Vertical Line- That is difference from Pre Covid High to Covid Bottom correlated from the pre Covid high).
Support - 19800 ( Trend line Support shown in Blue Color Wave Line)
Profit Booking can be started on Stocks and Mutual Funds where held more than 1 year and which is up. 10-30% can be booked.
Nifty Medium Term & long Term -
As market in overbought zone there will be a correction.
If market decisively break above 20500 then 20800 ,21000 & 21150 are the target for long term.
Further to review the Q2 results. To review once Nifty reaches target.
Resistance at 18800
Stocks to pick (Buy on Dip) for Long Term by on Staggered way :
Disclaimer: For analysis purpose only. Many stocks raised considerably in last three weeks.
Buy on dip SBI & ICICI Bank , Axis Bank given on 13-Aug-23, all three stocks are up, especially ICICI and Axis Bank increased well.
CIE Automotive (RS 507) call was given at 473, buy on dip for Medium term outlook .
Other buy Calls provided on 25-Jun-23 ( Whatever > 10% up can be sold ) :
HDFC Bank , L&T Tech ( 23% up), KPIT (13% Up ), PI Ind , Dr Reddys ( 16% Up), Ujjvan Small Fin (25 %), Route Mobile, Bank of Maharashtra ( 62 %), Andhra Paper(50%) Accelya Solutions (15% up)
BANKNIFTY ANALYSIS FOR 18th September 2023-FOR EDUCATION PURPOSEBANKNIFTY ANALYSIS FOR 18th September 2023-FOR EDUCATION PURPOSE
This video is for educational purpose and my personal view . We are NOT SEBI registered Advisor, we only give the level on our practical trading experience. Kindly take the trade according to your risk and reward position and consulting your advisor. It is advisable to take the advice of SEBI registered advisor.
@vijayanjum
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BANKNIFTY ANALYSIS FOR 14th September 2023-FOR EDUCATION PURPOSEBANKNIFTY ANALYSIS FOR 14th September 2023-FOR EDUCATION PURPOSE
This video is for educational purpose and my personal view . We are NOT SEBI registered Advisor, we only give the level on our practical trading experience. Kindly take the trade according to your risk and reward position and consulting your advisor. It is advisable to take the advice of SEBI registered advisor.
@vijayanjum
#nse
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NIFTYBANK - Bull and Co-(s)truck? -Kotak warning, nothing new. Similar warnings were given in previous trends also. Markets have limited moves or lame moves. There are not many small and mid-cap in banking space that can impact this sector in direct proportional measure. No indirect impact is seen at this point of time. Save PSU banks, as part of PSU Index that attracted profit taking. A healthy one indeed. Inflation recedes, worries remain. No real clues this morning, save yesterday yo yo session, optically nothing happened, but if one were to drill down a lot unfolded. Similar bearish meeting candle here too. Despite this the structure is much more stable. With expiry today, the mood is some consolidation at lower or no level moves. WPI later today, MoM of CPI is negative, to take home some comfort. US CPI later in the day. Oil rises, but markets chose to ignore at this point of time as the political premium in price is playing the moves. Technically looks set for 100 plus, if this assumption is true, then needs a calibrated approach to the investment or trading style. This morning Tankan Index falls on rise in input costs. Japan PPI flat YoY, but MoM increases. JPY moves can provide constructive clues to broader market direction globally. WPI data comes tomorrow for us, by then the US CPI would dominate the proceedings. Always to note, it is not the data that moves, but reaction of the markets to the data that is of importance. On a simple observation yesterday low of 45300 and first half hour high of45600 should do the trick but one can push that to 45100-45800 or 45100-45600 range.
BANKNIFTY ANALYSIS FOR 13th September 2023-FOR EDUCATION PURPOSEBANKNIFTY ANALYSIS FOR 13th September 2023-FOR EDUCATION PURPOSE
This video is for educational purpose and my personal view . We are NOT SEBI registered Advisor, we only give the level on our practical trading experience. Kindly take the trade according to your risk and reward position and consulting your advisor. It is advisable to take the advice of SEBI registered advisor.
@vijayanjum
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BANKNIFTY ANALYSIS FOR 12th September 2023-FOR EDUCATION PURPOSEBANKNIFTY ANALYSIS FOR 12th September 2023-FOR EDUCATION PURPOSE
This video is for educational purpose and my personal view . We are NOT SEBI registered Advisor, we only give the level on our practical trading experience. Kindly take the trade according to your risk and reward position and consulting your advisor. It is advisable to take the advice of SEBI registered advisor.
@vijayanjum
#nse
#nsebse
#Nifty
#niftyfifty
#bankniftytrading
#nfitybank
#niftypredictionfortomorrow
#niftyoptions
#NiftyBank
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Nifty Short, medium and Long Term review - 11-Sep-23 to 15-Sep-2Nifty Short, medium and Long Term review - 11-Sep-23 to 15-Sep-23
Nifty closed at 19822(19435) and touched low & high of 19437 and 19864.
Nifty long call was given last week. As expected nifty moved up above 19500 & 19600 and closed at 19822.
RSI and Stochastic level rised from 51 to 72 % & 58 to 93% respectively.
Nifty- Short Term will try to move up near to 20000 and will try to break and move above.
Resistance at 19900 & 20000 ( Both are previous up).
Support - 19500 & 19600 ( Fib Support)
Nifty Medium Term -
If market decisively break above 20000, 20150-20200 is the target ( Trend Line)
Resistance to 19704 ( Fib Resitance).
Long term-
20450 there is fibonacci strong resitance.
However threshold limit in net profit of companies and potential to grow is questionable.
Further to review the Q2 results. To review once Nifty reaches target of 20150-20200.
Stock specific approach needed in the upcoming market.
Stocks to pick ( Buy on Dip) for Long Term by on Staggered way call was given four weeks back, on an average raised 3-5 % in Three week( Can accumulate on dip ):
Disclaimer: For analysis purpose only. Many stocks raised considerably in last three weeks.
Buy on dip SBI & ICICI Bank , Axis Bank given on 13-Aug-23, all three stocks marginally increased, buy on DIP in the coming week as well.
CIE Automotive (RS 520) call was given three weeks before at 473, buy on dip for Medium term outlook .
Other buy Calls provided on 25-Jun-23 :
HDFC Bank , L&T Tech ( 17% up), KPIT (13% Up ), PI Ind , Dr Reddys ( 10% Up), Ujjvan Small Fin (25 %), Route Mobile, Bank of Maharashtra ( 40 %), Andhra Paper(8%) Accelya Solutions (20% up)
BANKNIFTY ANALYSIS FOR 11th September 2023-FOR EDUCATION PURPOSEBANKNIFTY ANALYSIS FOR 11th September 2023-FOR EDUCATION PURPOSE
This video is for educational purpose and my personal view . We are NOT SEBI registered Advisor, we only give the level on our practical trading experience. Kindly take the trade according to your risk and reward position and consulting your advisor. It is advisable to take the advice of SEBI registered advisor.
@vijayanjum
#nse
#nsebse
#Nifty
#niftyfifty
#bankniftytrading
#nfitybank
#niftypredictionfortomorrow
#niftyoptions
#NiftyBank
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BANKNIFTY ANALYSIS FOR 8th September 2023-FOR EDUCATION PURPOSEBANKNIFTY ANALYSIS FOR 8th September 2023-FOR EDUCATION PURPOSE
This video is for educational purpose and my personal view . We are NOT SEBI registered Advisor, we only give the level on our practical trading experience. Kindly take the trade according to your risk and reward position and consulting your advisor. It is advisable to take the advice of SEBI registered advisor.
@vijayanjum
#nse
#nsebse
#Nifty
#niftyfifty
#bankniftytrading
#nfitybank
#niftypredictionfortomorrow
#niftyoptions
#NiftyBank
#nifty50
#nifty500
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#sensex
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#bse#bseindia
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#STOCKMARKETUPTODATE
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BANKNIFTY ANALYSIS FOR 6th SEPTEMBER 2023-FOR EDUCATION PURPOSE BANKNIFTY ANALYSIS FOR 6th SEPTEMBER 2023-FOR EDUCATION PURPOSE ONLY
This video is for educational purpose and my personal view . We are NOT SEBI registered Advisor, we only give the level on our practical trading experience. Kindly take the trade according to your risk and reward position and consulting your advisor. It is advisable to take the advice of SEBI registered advisor.
@vijayanjum
#nse
#nsebse
#Nifty
#niftyfifty
#bankniftytrading
#nfitybank
#niftypredictionfortomorrow
#niftyoptions
#NiftyBank
#nifty50
#nifty500
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#niftytoday
#NiftyCE
#bankniftyoptions
#sensex
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#bse#bseindia
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#tommorrowMarketPrediction
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BANKNIFTY ANALYSIS FOR 5th SEPTEMBER 2023-FOR EDUCATION PURPOSE BANKNIFTY ANALYSIS FOR 5th SEPTEMBER 2023-FOR EDUCATION PURPOSE ONLY
This video is for educational purpose and my personal view . We are NOT SEBI registered Advisor, we only give the level on our practical trading experience. Kindly take the trade according to your risk and reward position and consulting your advisor. It is advisable to take the advice of SEBI registered advisor.
@vijayanjum
#nse
#nsebse
#Nifty
#niftyfifty
#bankniftytrading
#nfitybank
#niftypredictionfortomorrow
#niftyoptions
#NiftyBank
#nifty50
#nifty500
#niftytomorrow
#niftytoday
#NiftyCE
#bankniftyoptions
#sensex
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#finnifty
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#niftystrategies
#bse#bseindia
#bsesensex
#nsenifty
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#STOCKMARKETEDUCATION
#STOCKMARKETUPTODATE
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#stockmarkets
#tommorrowMarketPrediction
#nfityoutlookfornextweek
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Nifty Short, medium and Long Term review- 04-Sep-23 to 08-Sep-23Nifty Short, medium and Long Term review - 04-Sep-23 to 08-Sep-23
Nifty closed at 19435(19265) and touched low & high of 19225 and 19457.
Nifty traded slightly above the inclined trend line resistance (19337 to 19250) for four days but couldnt cross decisively and closed at 19435.
RSI and Stochastic level rised to 51 % & 58%. after Oversold zone a sign of recovery.
As mentioned from last week Nifty moved up after taking strong support at 19225-19250.
Nifty- Short Term will try to move up
Resistance at 19516 & 19607 Fib resistance, 19648 ( 09th Aug High)
Support - 19166 ( Fib 0.382 level), 19245-19276 ( Inclined Trend) ,19223 ( Recent Low)
Nifty Medium Term -
After a dip as mentioned above Nifty need to cross decisively above the zone 19648 Fib Resistance to 19704 ( Fib Resitance) to regain 19900-20000.
Nifty strong support at 19070 (Shown in thick red Trend line support) / 19000 /19890
Long term-
Q1 results are average for majority of stocks except Banks stocks which performed well & further to review the Q2 results. To review once Nifty reaches target of 20000 ( Prev high) & 20150
Stock specific approach needed in the upcoming market.
Stocks to pick ( Buy on Dip) for Long Term by on Staggered way call was given four weeks back, on an average raised 3-5 % in Three week( Can accumulate on dip ):
Disclaimer: For analysis purpose only. Many stocks raised considerably in last three weeks.
Buy on dip SBI & ICICI Bank , Axis Bank given on 13-Aug-23, all three stocks marginally increased, buy on DIP in the coming week as well.
CIE Automotive (RS 520) call was given three weeks before at 473, buy on dip for Medium term outlook .
Other buy Calls provided on 25-Jun-23 :
HDFC Bank , L&T Tech ( 17% up), KPIT (13% Up ), PI Ind , Dr Reddys ( 10% Up), Ujjvan Small Fin (25 %), Route Mobile, Bank of Maharashtra ( 40 %), Andhra Paper(8%) Accelya Solutions (20% up)