NFLX - Netflix and chill...further decline? NFLX - What a move!
Netflix, yesterday the earnings of NFLX were not so hot after all. Allowing us to chill further down to a deeper pullback. We are pattern wise - Bear flag. Measuring it, could lead us to that first hit of the red trend-line up. Now it's still within consolidation. However, if NFLX does breach towards upside the arrow is showing where it could head to. However, likely of deeper pull back may be due for NFLX - What goes up, must come down. We had a steep momentum of bulls in control. Will we have the bears heading in control for little while...?! Only time will tell but great support and resistance lines to indicate to us what we could see happening as well as patterns.
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NFLX
Netflix after earnings: a chartNetflix was down almost 15% after earnings. I quickly pulled up a chart to investigate. As you can see the stock was maybe "running ahead of itself." It went into earnings up 60% year-to-date. Most stocks don't return that in even a 5-year timeframe.
Regardless, as you can see, the price is about to near a crucial point that marks a lot of volume and trading (the shaded box). My guess is someone sold a lot in those levels and whoever bought might end up with the bag.
Let's find out though when the market opens shortly.
QQQ D1 update: 20%+ correction SOON(NEW/UPDATE)Why get subbed to to me on Tradingview?
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QQQ D1 update: 20%+ correction SOON(NEW/UPDATE)
IMPORTANT NOTE: speculative setup. do your own
due dill. use STOP LOSS. don't overleverage.
Yes, I know, called that previously, and since then
we still pushed slightly higher. However, only producing
marginal highs since then. TSLA also gone parabolic
pushing Elon Musk's networth >70 BLN USD in process,
which is beyong ridic and just confirms that
we are now in irrational exuberance / late stage of
the bull market.
🔸 Summary and potential trade setup
::: QQQ daily hour chart review
::: fake V-shape recovery spells trouble
::: C1/C2 is 1.44/1.62 extension of AB swing
::: we are likely already maxed out
::: or got very limited upside from here
::: either way setting up for 20%+ correction
::: 3-5 weeks of correction incoming soon
::: better be prepared in advance
::: when there's GREED there's also PAIN
::: get ready for 20%+ decline in QQQ
::: a lot of OPEN GAPS left behind
::: they will get filled soon
::: good luck traders
🔸 Supply/Demand Zones
::: 205/188/176 fresh demand zones
::: N/A
🔸 Other noteworthy technicals/fundies
::: TD9 /Combo update: N/A
::: Sentiment: BEARS
::: Sentiment outlook short-term: BEARISH
Netflix: More upside potential. $700 realistic before profit-takNFLX is trading on a long term Channel Up on the 1W chart (log scale) since early 2013. Despite being overbought (RSI = 79.335, MACD = 45.450, ADX = 45.358, CCI = 303.3862) with the earning approaching, Netflix has still room to grow before the next selling wave within the Channel takes place.
Both the LMACD and RSI are on levels where the price previously posted one last run to the Channel's Higher High, before it hit the Resistance Zone (red ray) and pulled back. We have a Target Zone for NFLX within 700 - 800.00.
It is beneficial to add here that these long-term projections on NFLX have been particularly useful to our strategy. See our previous trading call on this stock in September 2019 when the price was trading at $260. The price is now more than double and approaching our (then) target of $650:
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Netflix earnings are on the way... here's what I thinkNetflix reports earnings this week and it's going to be a really important report to the entire tech and media industry. Here's why:
1. We will find out just how much business the covid lockdown brought them from people staying home and in doors
2. We will find out how they are navigating the content creation lockdown and what that means for shows in the coming months and year
3. We will find out if Netflix is growing faster than its competitors like Disney, Hulu, and others if those companies are pressuring them at all
One thing I have noticed is that Netflix is up 75% year-to-date. Well done to those who have been long and are holding. My question, though, is what does Netflix have to report to meet these high rising expectations?
THE WEEK AHEAD: DAL, WFC, NFLX EARNINGS; XOP, GDXJ, EWZEARNINGS:
A bunch of earnings next week, particularly in the financials sector:
C (40/58/14.1%): Tuesday before market open.
DAL (50/95/23.0%): Tuesday before market open.
JPM (38/49/12.1%): Tuesday before market open.
WFC (58/63/15.4%): Tuesday before market open.
GS (31/48/11.7%): Wednesday before market open.
EBAY (71/56/13.4%): Wednesday before market open.
IBM (47/43/10.0%): Wednesday before market open.
BAC (36/52/13.1%): Thursday before market open.
JNJ (29/28/7.2%): Thursday before market open.
MS (35/51/12.3%): Thursday before market open.
NFLX (50/60/14.5%): Thursday before market open.
From the standpoint of what the August at-the-money short straddle is paying, you appear to get the most bang for your buck out of DAL (23.0%), followed by WFC (15.4%) and NFLX (14.5%). Because so many financials are announcing, I did consider a short premium play in the sector exchange-traded fund, XLF (29/41/10.4%), but the August at-the-money short straddle is paying just a smidge over 10% of the stock price relative to WFC (15.4%), C (14.1%), BAC (13.1%), JPM (12.1%), and GS (11.7%), so it's potentially more worthwhile to go single name for the volatility contraction here and to look to WFC to get the most buck banging.
Unfortunately, strike granularity for WFC out in August remains pesky, with 2.5 wides where I'd want to set up my tent. For what it's worth, the 22.5/30 paid 1.42 as of Friday close, with the shorts camped out around the 23 delta.
To me, airlines remain a bullish assumption play from these levels, and DAL is no exception. Consider out-of-the-money short put: the August 21st 20 delta 22 is paid 1.06 as of Friday close or another bullish assumption setup such as a Zebra, buying 2 x the 70 delta calls and selling the 50, potentially calendarizing the setup so that you have more time to reduce cost basis (e.g., buy 2 x December 18th 23 calls, sell the August 21st 27).
Pictured here is a NFLX August 21st 455/465/680/690 iron condor with the shorts set up at the 16 delta as of Friday close. The market's showing wide on this setup, but look to get at least one-third the width of the widest wing (i.e., for a 10-wide, at least 3.33). You'll probably have to fiddle with the strikes given the amount of movement it's experiencing.
EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS ORDERED BY RANK AND SCREENED FOR >35% 30-DAY IMPLIED:
EWW (42/40/10.0%)
GDXJ 40/55/13.73%)
XLE (38/50/12.6%)
GDX (34/41/11.0%)
EWZ (29/48/12.1%)
SMH (26/36/9.2%)
XOP (25/61/15.8%)
USO (7/53/15.8%)
XOP (15.8%), GDXJ (13.73%), and EWZ (12.1%) have the most juice as a function of buying power ... .
BROAD MARKET:
Currently, no broad market with an August at-the-money short straddle paying greater than 10% of the stock price, but if you feel compelled to play, IWM (42/38/9.4%) is paying the most as a function of stock price.
IRA DIVVY-GENERATORS SCREENED FOR AUGUST SHORT STRADDLE PAYING MORE THAN 10% OF STOCK PRICE:
EWZ (29/48/12.1%) (Current Yield: 3.36%)
NFLXA new ATH was tested for NFLX today at exactly $510.00 before turning slightly bearish for the day. With earnings coming up on July 16, this may look to continue pushing new highs. NFLX is known to be a major stay-at-home stock amid the Coronavirus outbreak, and as fears of new cases still to come, this may continue its push upward.