NZD USD - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSNZD
FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: BULLISH
1. Monetary Policy
At their April meeting the RBNZ surprise economists but not STIR markets by delivering a 50bsp hike, taking the OCR to 1.50%. The bank stressed, like most others, that inflation is a concern and that they will ensure that higher price pressures don’t become embedded in longer-term inflation expectations. The NZD initially pushed higher after the 50bsp hike (surprising economists) but it faded initial strength to trade much lower (as a 50bsp was almost fully priced by STIR markets). The statement reflected the hawkish tone we’ve grown accustomed to see from the bank over the past few months with the Committee saying they agreed that their policy ‘path of least regrets’ was to increase the OCR by 50bsp now rather than later, and of course stated that more hikes are needed (in line with their OCR projections). The one less hawkish element for the decision was that the bank didn’t increase their neutral rate expectations and instead said they are comfortable with their February MPS OCR outlook. The markets wanted to see a clear promise of more 50bsp hikes or alternatively wanted to see an increase of the neutral rate expectations, and without either of those the 50bsp hike was simply seen as front-loading. As a result of this, money markets were pricing in just a 25bsp for May for the majority of Wednesday. But after calls from Westpac, ASB and Kiwibank for a 50bsp in May we saw the NZD regain some composure on Thursday as STIR markets priced in a 60% chance of a 50bsp hike. The RBNZ remain hawkish, but a lot of that is arguably priced in and might not continue to offer much more support for the NZD.
2. Economic outlook
The econ outlook looks solid as growth & inflation is expected to accelerate, home prices up 30%, commodity prices supported, and a ratified trade deal with China (opening more Chinese markets for NZ goods). Given it’s trade with China and Australia the recent Covid situation in China is a short-term negative for the NZD.
3. Global Risk Outlook
As a high-beta currency, the NZD usually benefits from overall positive risk sentiment as well as environments that benefit pro-cyclical assets. Thus, both short-term (immediate) and med-term (underlying) risk sentiment will always be a key consideration for the NZD.
4. CFTC Analysis
Most recent positioning data for the NZD was mostly a mixed bag with no major bullish or bearish signals to take from it with positioning remaining close to neutral across participant categories.
5. The Week Ahead
The main highlights for the week ahead for the NZD will be the quarterly jobs print as well as overall risk sentiment. Even though the jobs report will be important from a macro point of view, it’s unlikely that a miss or a beat would really be enough to change the RBNZ rate path expectations right now. Unlike other central banks, the RBNZ have played open cards from last year about their intentions to go through a series of hikes to bring the OCR back towards neutral. Currently, markets are pricing in a close to 80% chance of another 50bsp hike at the bank’s next meeting, which does mean that STIR markets could be impacted by the release. A much better print will likely see STIRs once again price a 100% change of a hike while a surprise miss could see STIRS price out a 50bsp and stick with a 25bsp. At this stage, the NZD has seen a lot of downside alongside the AUD, which means a solid jobs print could be attractive for a short-term scalp higher, while a miss would not be attractive to chase given the amount of downside we’ve seen this past week. Then we also have risk sentiment to watch as the classic risk sensitivity that one would usually expect from high beta currencies like the AUD, CAD and NZD have seemingly returned with a vengeance in the past two trading weeks. That means overall risk sentiment will be an important driver to keep in mind for the NZD as well.
USD
FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: BULLISH
1. Monetary Policy
In March the Fed delivered on a 25bsp hike as expected with Fed’s Bullard the only dissenter voting for a 50bsp hike. The Dot Plot saw a big upgrade from 3 hikes (Dec) to 7 hikes for 2022, with the FFR seen reaching 2.75%- 3.0% in 2023 before falling in 2024. They did however lower their neutral rate from 2.5% to 2.4% which were a negative. Inflation forecasts for 2022 were raised to 4.1% (previous 2.7%) but med-term inflation saw less aggressive upgrades. Even though the overall message and projections were hawkish, the fact that GDP estimates were lowered to 2.8% from 4.0% shows the Fed expects their actions to impact demand and also reflect some of the recent geopolitical uncertainties. The Fed didn’t share new details on QT but noted that the decision to start selling assets will be made at a coming meeting (markets consensus sees a July start as likely) and added that good progress in QT discussions means a May announcement is likely. During the presser the Chair expressed his view that the economy is doing really well and, should be more than able to withstand the incoming rate hikes (a very similar situation like we had in 4Q18). When asked whether 50bsp hikes could be on the table, the chair explained that the FOMC has not made decision to front-load hikes and will keep an eye on incoming inflation data to determine their policy actions going forward, but of course added that every incoming meeting was live. Overall, the Fed was hawkish, but due to very strong pre-positioning and close to peak hawkishness priced for STIR markets the meeting saw a ‘sell-the-fact’ reaction across major asset classes.
2. Global & Domestic Economy
As the reserve currency, the USD’s global usage means it’s usually inversely correlated to the global economy and global trade. The USD usually appreciates when growth & inflation slows (disinflation) and depreciates when growth & inflation accelerates (reflation). Thus, current expectations of a cyclical slowdown are a positive driver for the Dollar. Incoming data will be watched in relation to the ‘Fed Put’ as there are many similarities between now and 4Q18, where the Fed were also tightened into a slowdown. If growth data slows and the Fed stays hawkish it’s a positive for the USD, however if the Fed pivots dovish that’ll be a negative driver for the USD.
3. CFTC Analysis
Aggregate USD positioning remains close to 1 standard deviation above the mean, and close to prior tops where the USD topped out in previous cycles. That does not change the bullish outlook for the USD in the med-term but means that we would wait for pullbacks before initiating new longs with price at new cycle highs.
4. The Week Ahead
The main event for the week ahead will no doubt be the FOMC meeting, but we’ll also get ISM PMIs as well as the April jobs print coming our way. For the FOMC, we think the Fed has set themselves a very high hawkish bar going into the meeting. STIR markets are pricing in 3 back-to-back 50bsp hikes, as well as an earlier start to QT ($95bn p/m). On the language side, recent Fed speak has seen even the doves find their inner hawks by talking up very aggressive policy tightening. So, with all of that as the baseline going into the meeting, it means the Fed would need to hike 75bsp and up the expected QT pace to really surprise markets. With the USD and Yields at cycle highs and equities at cycle lows, that increases the chances of some sell-the-fact reactions. This would be our preferred strategy for the USD going into the week. Then we also have the data where the ISM PMI data will be closely watched for further clues of whether growth is slowing faster than expected. On the jobs side, the impact of the NFP will most likely be dictated by the outcome of the FOMC decision. If the Fed manages to surprise on the hawkish side (seems unlikely) a beat in jobs won’t do much to change that, but a miss can certainly do a lot to stir the pot (even more so if the Fed decision is interpreted as ‘less hawkish’.
