Nasdaq Long As I said 1 month ago NQ100 Will Go to 22000Trend Bullish
P above vwap yearly
Maket profile shiftig higher
POC shifting higher: Now the 15 most institutions and institutional traders, that control more than 75% of the makets( Market makers show their cards:Thier footprint is POC, a phenomenon they cannot hide, but shows exactly what they are thinking, where they buy or sell, and a forecast where they will go to)....
And it is cystal clear:They wanna higher prices....
FED is losing power, and enarly noone but noone does care what FED or Powell and his freinds are telling ya.
The truth is that that the so called infation(yes so called inflation as it was made by FED itself) is cooling down, DXY is depreciating, and retail traders are becoming smarter. The bear market of 2022 was a good teacher, and those among us started to learn, learn and understand the markets, some better than the most professional investors,traders and institutionals...
This lesson was hard but it was worth it:
The smart trader of today has clearly underszoad that no one ,but no one can stop the trend.
And he has also understoad it takes more than watching the news ,following blindly the FED or the so called ,, EXPERTS,,---Those who were made and nouuned as Experts by the media....that is gaining its profits out of the losses of the retail traders, some professionals and most amateurs.
The reality is:
The true fundamentals facts we are reading and watching every day are not true at all: 99% fake, false,manipulated.
What can we do? How can we know if the news we get are fake or real?
Well: My answer is we can´t! And if some news are real, they wont help us. Why? Because they are old. Done,Gone.
The news are made by humans, and the persons are making news they have intentions:Money,Power,....Many insiders, many intrigues...
Well this is trading. It seems to be a chaotic jungle:If we ignore the rules. This is trading.
What to do:
I found my own answer, that helps me to stay focused,awake and profitanle.I m not saying that I make all the time profits. But I use to say over the long run I have beat and will beat the markets,many times,again and again. Drawdowns are part of the game, and every trade we take, might it be on lower or bigger TF displays drawdowns,because the markets are volatile:Some more and some less.But they all are volatile.
It also depnds on your protfolio,if you trade 1 asset, or more assets, and the time horizons...
Statistically, and you can check it up day trading will end in losers, as there is a 50 50 chance to win or lose in day trading.
On longer TF and time horizons that statistics change thier edge into higher win chances...
Therefor I trade only big TF, and only the trend. The intradays ,i use to buy or sell in trend directions..Only.
Back to Nasdaq:
Inflation cools down
Oil down
DXY down
Higher Highs Higher Lows
Higher POC
Volatility of VIX down(Risk down)
RSI long term above 50
Stochastic bullish
The market makes higher highs, and Higher lows, but RSI makes Higher highs and lower Lows!This is a clear indication that the trend will continue and the new part of the trend will be mch more stronger than the previouse one.
Why 22000 and higher: The companies will and must make more profits than expeted to compensate thier past losses of the last 3 years, and evetuelly get prepared for future crashes...So they will increase the production, that increases more job demands, that leads to more hiring people, that will boost household incomes, that will boost more spending because ppl earn more income, that will rise the production cycle of the economy as the production rises, that will prevent RECESSION!
Yes ! Recession: FEDs propaganda is recession, that wont come! Why? Well then read the logical aruments above! And i gotta tell ya something: The aruments above are for real and they are real facts of the last 80 years wrld economy. China, Japan, Europe! Even during the worse crashes China and Japan have been the first countries tehy recovered fast. Japan is refusing to increase the interest rates, and Just see how the economy machine is rolling on...The americans have understoad that logics, and it seems that FED and its friends have not understoad it, or they are unable to understand it.
What is the Makrets answer? They BULL Nasdaq,Dow Jones, S&P and all other indices. That is they answer,and that makes FED much more powerless.
Power to Traders.
Good Trades and Good profits.
Dave
NASDAQ 100 CFD
NASDAQ One last Falling Resistance to break.Nasdaq / US100 continues to trade inside the Channel Up from the start of the year.
It has one last Resistance to cross and that is the Falling Resistance of the July 19th High.
As mentioned previously, this continues to be an identical price action to February / March.
You may take a confirmed sell, once the Falling Resistance breaks and target 16250 (Fibonacci 1.236).
Previous chart:
Follow us, like the idea and leave a comment below!!
Russel 2000 vs Nasdaq, important momentThis is essentially a momentum play where we're seeking a breakout in the Russell 2000 (RUT) compared to the Nasdaq, signifying relative overperformance and potentially paving the way for new highs on the S&P 500 (SPX).
It's important to note that a rejection at this juncture would indicate a bearish signal. However, from a pattern probability perspective, the outlook appears bullish. Even though we're currently at all-time high (ATH) levels, this aligns with historical trends from the year 2000, and the prevailing inflationary period suggests the possibility of reaching even higher highs in the future, unless we breakout on the yield curve inversion and have the bear steepener event (see my other charts) that could very well align with the resistance we have here and failing a monthly breakout we can experience a bull trap. Only a monthly close above is a strong buy signal.
NQ1! NASDAQ 2023 SEP 02 Potential WeaknessNQ1! NAS100USD NASDAQ 2023 SEP 02
Neither scenario manifested for last week, didn't manage to trade.
Daily vol analysis still shows that Demand < Supply, while weekly
analysis may be pointing to potential buying climax, which further
weaknesses must be manifested in order to substantiate this story.
Possible scenarios:
1) After weakness on the last 2 bars, short if
channel or 15547 is resisted
2) Or short from 16030-15900 zone
3) Long on retracement if channel support is obeyed
Price Reaction Levels
Short on Test and reject | Long on Test and Accept
16030 15547 15049 14635 13960
*Longer term: 13350 support must hold for long trend to be intact.
Price/Volume/Trend Analysis:
Weekly: Ave vol up bar close of high = NTC minor weakness
Daily: No supply up bar followed by S>D bar = PTC weakness
*NTC = Non-Trend Changing | PTC: Potential Trend Changing
Like and follow if you find this useful | *For education purpose only.
Have a profitable trading week. CME_MINI:NQ1!
NASDAQ Forming Head and Shoulders ReversalNASDAQ Daily
*Note: This is an update to our previous analysis that will be linked below
Price Chart
The NDX is currently trading within an upward channel (Yellow Solids), and has recently tested the bottom trend line a fourth time; the more price retests it the weaker it becomes. This has also formed what could be the neckline (Teal / Red Solid) to a head and shoulders setup and has pushed the price past the mid-point (Teal Dotted) of the double top; which would also be the head. EMA's on the other hand have failed to cross lower with the 12-day and 26-day recrossing higher. Also notable is the spike in selling pressure on July 21; which is the same area the NDX is currently trading.
Relative Strength Indicator
There is a divergence (Teal Solid) from the price which lead to the trend line (Yellow Solid) breaking and the RSI dipping below the 50 level. The RSI has since recovered, however it's re approaching the trend line for a retest.
On Balance Volume
Similarly to the RSI, the OBV has also shown a divergence from the price and moved lower past the mid-point (Teal Dotted) in the double top. After a bounce at the support (Red Solid) the indicator is moving higher to retest the mid-point.
TLDR;
The market is showing strength, but a head and shoulders pattern is possibly forming as outlined above. RSI and OBV are both signaling higher, however, the indicators are nearing a trend line retest and level of resistance respectively. If price action moves past the head then we have an invalidation, but look for lower buying volume in the beginning of September to signal the formation of the shoulder.
What Seems Legit?
Um, not our portfolio if Mr. Market keeps running away from our targets; the market has been on a tear since the reversal in Dec / Jan. I mean, how many times have you heard those Bloomberg boys on the radio be like "omg markut go zhoom moar! wuuuuut?!", then the analyst comes on and is like "OH YEA NO U GOTTA DEPLOY CASH HERE I MEAN U CANT SIT ON THE SIDELINES LIKE WE CALLED THE BOTTOM AND NAO U GOTTA BAI". Layin' it on a little thick, text book transfer of wealth. Let's see if we get that head and shoulders.
Follow us on Twitter for memes, market moves, and not so headline news.
Chart Key
Yellow Solid = Major Trend Line / Channel
Red Solid = Support / Resistance
Teal / Red Solid = H&S Neck Line
Aqua Solid = Divergences
Teal Dotted = Midpoint Resistance
White Dotted = Invalidation of H&S
Green Boxes = Supports / Target Areas
NQ1! NAS100USD NASDAQ 2023 AUG 28 NQ1! NAS100USD NASDAQ 2023 AUG 28
Hope you had taken Scenario 2 test of breakdown
area 15138-15511 short.
Possible scenario:
1) Continued short per possible bear flag
2) If market hits longer term support channel (black dash),
>> support = long
>> breakdown + test and reject = short
Price Reaction Levels
Short on Test and reject | Long on Test and Accept
16042 15511 14635 13960
*Longer term: 13350 support must hold for long trend to be intact.
Price/Volume/Trend Analysis:
Weekly: Higher ave vol up bar close at lower half of bar (S>D)
Daily: Ave vol up bar close toward high (D>S)
*NTC = Non-Trend Changing | PTC: Potential Trend Changing
Like and follow if you find this useful | *For education purpose only.
Have a profitable trading week.
NQ1! NAS100USD NASDAQ 2023 AUG 20NQ1! NAS100USD NASDAQ 2023 AUG 20
Scenario 2 short yielded handsome profit if you had followed 07 Aug's
analysis. 18 Aug's bar showed some demand.
CME_MINI:NQ1!
Possible scenario:
1) Continued short opportunity if market test downward trendline and is rejected
2) Market tests breakdown area 15138-15511 (yellow box), and is rejected = short
Price Reaction Levels
Short on Test and reject | Long on Test and Accept
16029 15524 15138 14638
*Longer term: 13350 needs to be supported for long trend to be intact.
Price/Volume/Trend Analysis:
Weekly: NTC Ave vol down bar, close off low (some demand)
Daily: Ave vol down bar | ENR | SOT | DOWNTREND
*NTC = Non-Trend Changing | PTC: Potential Trend Changing
Like and follow if you find this useful | *For education purpose only.
Have a profitable trading week.
NASDAQ 100 LONG SET UP SWING TRADE (1000 PIPS INCOMING)Hey folks! hope you have all been bagging some green pips. Interesting times are lying ahead of us as some juicy set ups are cooking and we just need to continuously be disciplined and patient. On the menu today is NASDAQ 100 swing trade that has been in a Multi year uptrend.
looking at the 4 hour chart, we see that price broke structure to the upside indicated (BOS).
Price has now made its way back down to the origin demand level that caused the break of structure.
This makes demand level a point of interest and may mean potentially price can mitigate the zone and can begin to accumulate positions around the zone to begin travelling back up north of about 1000 pips. Am already in with a small position and will only be adding more positions when price has given more confirmations but for now its still a risky set up. Overall this could be a set up of about 1:6 risk reward ratio.
Remember to always apply proper money and risk management in your trade set ups.
Nasdaq: support bounce to feed new continuation?Today's focus: NASDAQ (NDQ100)
Pattern – Continuation
Support – 15,015
Resistance – 15,435
• The Nasdaq led US indices on Monday, adding 1.05%
• Could this be the start of a new continuation higher?
Hi, and thanks for checking out today’s analysis. Today, our focus is on the NDQ100 index, and we are watching to see if yesterday’s rally and support hold could be the beginning of a new continuation pattern. In our last report, we discussed whether price could return to the main trendline after breaking its fast trend.
From here, we want to see buyers continue to push forward. Today’s retail sales at 8:30 could be a factor, and we feel that overly strong data could hurt stock indexes. A move back to support would be a worry and could show that buyer strength is not that strong currently. If we we see price continue to rally, 15,435 could be a first test.
Another news item to watch this week will be the FOMC meeting minutes. Buyers will be looking for a dovish tone from the Fed to help support upward momentum.
Have a great day and good trading.
NQ weekly consolidation comes to end?Context:
Monthly, weekly - Uptrend (UT)
Daily - downtrend (DT)
Micro-structure:
Poor low from yesterday, excess high from Wednesday
Last Day:
Bearish break out from the range w/o much follow through (b-shape profile implies liquidation of longs, w/o new business). Price returned to the previous range.
Conclusion:
Healthy weekly consolidation. Daily DT comes to an exhaustion as bearish breakouts do not get follow through. If value moves into previous trading range it will be a very good signal for buyers. The only remaining problem for them is strong excess (unfilled gap) from Wednesday 2nd. We should also be cognizant of the fact that we have not yet seen any sign of meaningful buying . So sideway movement scenario is a very likely option
Disclaimer
I don't give trading or investing advices, just sharing my thoughts
#NASDAQ100 Testing Parallel Up Trend#NASDAQ100 Testing Parallel Up Trend for the fourth time. I expect this to break this week or next. We are entering a seasonal bearish period, also we have been in a up trend since March 13th. The 150 day moving average will be a great opportunity to start buying.
NQ1! NAS100USD NASDAQ 2023 AUG 07
NQ1! NAS100USD NASDAQ 2023 AUG 07
Last week, Short from 15904 resistance was good.
On weekly TF, market has closed below trend line.
Watch market's reaction to the trendline.
Possible Scenarios:
1) Short on retracement / rejection of 15511 level
2) Market does a spring and returns into rotation (grey box area), and target
can be 50% of rotation range, or trial to upper boundary of rotation
Price Reaction Levels
Short on Test and reject | Long on Test and Accept
16029 - 15904 15511 15118
*Longer term: 13350 needs to be supported for long trend to be intact.
Price/Volume/Trend Analysis:
Weekly: NTC Ave vol down bar, and bar also closed below weekly trendline
Daily: NTC ave vol down bar | Lower High
*NTC = Non-Trend Changing | PTC: Potential Trend Changing
Like and follow if you find this useful | *For education purpose only.
Have a profitable trading week.
Long LILM No clue what these people do. had a great long off the lows. got my hand burnt shorting, but positive profit so far. Buying here, small size, no stop. Not advise
Gold or Nasdaq: What to Short this Week?For Gold (XAU/USD), the 4-hour chart suggests a neutral-to-bearish stance. While the pair is currently above its moving averages, the 50-day moving average is closely trailing its price. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is dropping towards a neutral level, indicating a potential pause in buyer activity. If Gold drops below $1,945, there is a risk of prices descending further and retesting their previous lows or the 200-Day Simple Moving Average (SMA) around $1,941.
The deciding factor for Gold this week will likely be the US jobs data. The Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report on Friday is a significant event, and the precursor jobs data (JOLTS Job report on Tuesday) could also sway traders. The market expects the NFP to show 190K jobs added, more than double the natural US growth rate. A strong jobs figure could influence traders' anticipation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and impact the downside outlook for Gold.
On the other hand, Nasdaq and other major US indices are expected to end July with gains. The Dow Jones has particularly shown impressive growth over the past two weeks. The outperformance of the Dow Jones suggests a possible shift by investors from growth stocks (such as Nasdaq stocks) to value stocks.
Looking at the daily chart, the Nasdaq Composite is now targeting a key resistance level at 14,649. However, there is a possibility of aggressive seller response at that level. On the 4-hour chart, a divergence with the MACD indicates weakening momentum, which is often followed by pullbacks.
Earnings reports from major tech companies, Apple and Amazon, will be crucial for Nasdaq this week. These two giants represent 11.6% of the entire Nasdaq index measured by market cap. Better-than-expected US earnings could potentially prolong the bull run in the market.
NQ1! NAS100USD NASDAQ 2023 JULY 31
NQ1! NAS100USD NASDAQ 2023 JULY 31
A) Market facing resistance at 16030-15904 area
B) Fallen out of uptrend channel | | Lower High
C) Rotation between 16030 - 15511
D) Weakening upward momentum on W / D timeframe
Possible Scenarios:
1) Rotation strategy: Trade at boundary 16030 | 15904 and 15511 (grey zone 390 - 500pts range).
Target can be 50% of range or trail to rotation boundary.
Price Reaction Levels
Short on Test and reject | Long on Test and Accept
16646 16030 15511 15118
*Longer term: 13350 needs to be supported for long trend to be intact.
Price/Volume/Trend Analysis:
Weekly: Narrowing spread ave vol up bar = weakening momentum
Daily: Lower vol up bar close off high = minor weakness
*NTC = Non-Trend Changing | PTC: Potential Trend Changing
Like and follow if you find this useful | *For education purpose only.
Have a profitable trading week.
A Break above 14020 Could change The big SidewaysThe number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits fell to 242 thousand in the week ending May 13th, down from an 18-month high of 264 thousand and below market expectations of 254 thousand. The latest reading indicated the labor market in the United States remains relatively tight, potentially leading to upward pressure on wages and providing the Federal Reserve with an opportunity to implement further interest rate hikes in its efforts to combat inflation.
The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index in the US increased to -10.4 in May of 2023 from a nearly three-year low of -31.3 in April, and better than market forecasts of -19.8. General manufacturing activity in Philadelphia continued to decline overall but at at the slowest pace in four months. New orders (-8.9 vs -22.7) and shipments (-4.7 vs -7.3) rose from last month but remained negative while employment declined (-8.6 vs -0.2). The price indexes remained below long-run averages, with the prices received index declining further (-7 vs -3.3) The survey’s future indexes continued to reflect muted expectations for growth (-10.3 vs -1.5), with almost
37% of the firms expecting a decrease in activity over the next six months.
US futures were mixed on Thursday, with contracts on the Dow Jones down nearly 30 points while both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq were above the flatline. Shares of Walmart were up 1.7% in premarket trading after the retailer raised its full-year forecast and earnings topped forecasts. At the same time, traders become increasingly optimistic the debt ceiling standoff would soon be solved and the US will avoid a default. Also, regional banks are also expected to extend gains when markets open. However, the latest data showed weekly claims fell more-than-expected last week, triggering fears of more Fed interest rate hikes.
NDX (Nasdaq 100) Index Analysis 05/01/2021Fundamental Analysis:
As we can see the Index has shown a very strong come back after the Covid-19 pandemic of March 2021 which caused the market to fall and create a panic to the world.
Since then there are lots of changes to the world and the way companies are operating, such as releasing of their premises and offices as they should have discharge lots of their employees and the work from home schemes was the main reason to cut the expenditure of these companies drastically down.
From the other hand, the market administration and governments including Banks has injected lots of funds and so called Rescue Packages and the market stimulant's packages to protect the Market from its Hard and Drastically fall to the lower levels and prevent a gigantic Global Markets Crises.
These funding and injection of the cash to these companies along side of cost and expenditure reduction due to their risk measurement policies, forced these companies to invest the receiving funds in to the companies assets to protect themselves from the Pandemic Crises and hedged their exposed risks instead of investing these funds to the new Projects or renovations which could Couse their Share prices to appreciate intrinsically but instead these investments in the assets made an inflation to the prices of the assets and created a bobble in their share value and Prices without having any inheritance or intrinsic values.
so we can easily have a decision derived from the current situation that there has to be an other market fall and crises soon so the Price and its relevant intrinsic values get converged and market comes to its correct values.
we can observe the same situation in many different centralized markets such as US500 and even other Stock Exchanges around the world like London and rest European market places to be in the same inflated status.
there exist a huge chance of an other Global Market Crises coming soon which has the domino effect and Couse the entire markets to fall for some times .
This fall of the market shall remove off the liquidity from the equity and debt market and streamflow them to some green heaven Asset classes including Gold and silver or even newly invented Technologies such as decentralized markets and Cryptocurrencies and DeFi.
if we have a look at the Current crypto's Total Crypto Market Capitalization we can see it has a very good chances of Rally Continuation to some very high levels such as 5 to 6 Trillion dollars or even much higher.
Total Market Cap of All Cryptocurrencies:
Gold even can see higher Prices such as 2500 USD per ounce which is currently ranging at 1800 USD.
we even can some how speculate a 3 world War to be the initiator of this Market fall which is even not so far from the reality as the situation in middle east is not very stable due to the Iran and Israel disputes and new anti-covid's restriction social movements in Europe and America continent.
we can see the same situation in US500:
DJI:
we shall analyze few other markets and indices and ultimately Propose some Assets which are at their low Points Currently and can be counted as under values at present times.
Technical Analysis:
we have used the Fibonacci trend base extension from the low to the Highest point even before the Covid pandemic to have a better vision of the Higher expansion levels for the post retracement's rallies and identify the Potential Price levels and resistance zones. where the market can show some stagnation and starts its retracement and price correction to the lower levels.
the Fibonacci trend base extension clearly shows that the price has touched the 261.8% which is a very critical point for the price to find its intrinsic values and correct its self by retracing to the lower levels which can be the parallels leg areas of the same Fibonacci extension levels, before its rally to the higher targets.
There exist a Bearish Divergence of Price and MACD where Price has made higher high levels but MACD made lower Highs which is the most significant and strong Bullish Trend Reversal and start of Market fall and Price retracement and Value corrections.
there are total of 2 Targets defined which have a very strong Support tendencies which can be interpreted as the maximum retracements points.
there are few support level are also defined to have a better vision of the bullish trend reversal to bearish retracements which eventually can be counted as the bearish Trend reversal points and new cycle initialization.
NQ1! NAS100USD NASDAQ 2023 JULY 13
NQ1! NAS100USD NASDAQ 2023 JULY 13
Wait for Mon 17 Jul's bar close to determine if Friday's mark down is for additional buying / weakness.
Possible Scenarios:
1) if Mon 17 Jul closes higher = long on reracement
2) If Mon 17 Jul closes lower = look for low volume mark up, rejection, then short at rejection
near recent resistance / high
Price Reaction Levels
Short on Test and reject | Long on Test and Accept
16646 15839 15507
15118 14850 14368
*Longer term: 13350 needs to be supported for long trend to be intact.
Price/Volume/Trend Analysis:
Weekly: NTC ave vol up bar close off high = minor weakness | Uptrend
Daily: UT ave vol bar in an uptrend = wait for next bar to determine if this is
marked down for additional buying or weakness | Uptrend
*NTC = Non-Trend Changing | PTC: Potential Trend Changing
Like and follow if you find this useful.
Have a profitable trading week.
*For education purpose only.