Ndx: 16000 Is The MarkHey y'all, so---I'm still waiting for the train Cos' honestly it's been a bit confusing. The over-all trend is still bullish but, I need to buy at a good price. The nasdaq100 isn't giving that. The hour-4 kind of gave a great pull that I missed out on. Well, that's the disadvantage of my strategy You miss it, you got to wait for another train.
16k is still my mark. It determines the next step!
In this video, I explain all that I'm expecting. Be sure to watch the whole clip!
If my work is something you admire, be sure to leave a like, comment and follow.
I'm forever grateful!
NASDAQ 100 CFD
NDX in C wave up of larger scale B waveAfter ATH in Nov 22, which should be a wave 5 of 3 in the larger scale, now it is time to start wave 4 with ABC setup.
We can see that for the A of 4, we already finished the clear ABC pattern with B = 0.9A and C pushing to 1.236 of A, which is a classic flat.
With recent 3-up (potential A of B) and 3-down (potential B of B, especially with the fact that B already retraced to 0.618 A), this may be the setup of B, which should be A3-B3-C5, and now is the start of the final wave C.
We expect this C wave push to 0.618 of previous large A, and then go down to start the final C, which should wrap up the even larger scale wave 4.
Ndx: Wick Fill Or NotSomething great happened to me---I lost a trade but the reason I said it's great is---it revealed to me what I needed to do personally. My ego and intuitions get the best of me sometimes. Which I know I need to work on.
Either way, I also took the trade because of a daily wick fill I believe might happen. Not expecting though I'll just wait for the market to decide...
Then again, let me remind you of the kevels.
Bulls---17200, 16400 and 15600 (mid)
Bears--14400, 14800 and 15200 (mid)
The bulls are at the strong stick now but since there's a wick, the bears might just be back...
Remember, this is my journal so I post everything and talk about everything.
Follow me to be more enlightened or not if you think trading isn't for you. The question is, are you honest with you?
I'm brutally honest and the truth hurts so only follow me for the truth... That wasn't even ego speaking but you get it though.
Ndx: What The Side Channel Sayshey y'all we're currently in a channel... "side-channel" with 16000 serving as the mid, 16771 top and 15580 it's bottom.
Be sure to use this as a guide.
In that---if the 16000 serves as a resistance, then these bears would be back and vice-versa.
In this video, I explain all that I'm expecting. Be sure to watch the whole clip!
If my work is something you admire, be sure to leave a like, comment and follow.
I'm forever grateful!
17500 on The CardsThe bottom trendline of the major weekly channel held with the most recent push to the downside. This indicates the presence of institutional demand and the chances of new all time highs is good. There is also the formation of a bullish corrective structure as indicated by the green flag. This does not mean that there is no longer downside risk and I will be keeping a close eye on the low of the recent daily spike. A close below that may indicate a more significant correction.
I am currently long and remain bullish but will be watching the resistance of the structure. The upside target will depend on if and whether the flag breaks after 3 or 5 downward moves.
Happy trading!
Linton
Nasdaq100- New ATH soon?On Monday, Nas100 dropped under 15500 horizontal support. However, this break lacked continuation and has proved to be a false break, with the index quickly and strongly reversing.
At this moment the price is just under a short-term resistance and a break here would expose the old ATH zone resistance.
Also, considering the strong reversal after the false break we can expect a new ATH in the near future and 17500 can be the bulls target
My Forecast for 2022 Maret!First I want to express my gratitude to the +9000 Tradingview users who started following me in 2021 and supporting me with their likes and comments. I wish you all a year full of successful trades.
I also appreciate the @TradingView team's efforts to make the platform stronger in the past decade, it gives me more energy to write more detailed analysis, Nice job..!
Let's Go:
In these charts, you see S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, Dow Jones, and Russell 200 monthly charts and their rate of change(12).
As you can see the highest 12 monthly rates of change were recorded at the end of February 2021, for all major indexes, and then markets slows down!
2021 ends with an overall performance of :
SPX:+26.89%
NDX:+26.63%
DJI:+18.73%
RUT: +13.7%
* Better to adjust these gains for Inflation which is at the highest level in the past 4 decades (+6.8% YOY).
As it is obvious it was a bad year for small caps which leads the market by +90% return by February 2021 and they end the year at the lowest rank of performance by +13.7. Their performance loomed in the past 10 months, and more than 77% of that glorious gains melted in front of the eyes of novice investors who were looking for their tickets to the Moon or Mars or other planets..!
Now, let's review the previous analysis:
A review on my analysis 3 weeks ago..!
On December 16th, 2021, I published one analysis:
In that analysis, I mentioned that higher than normal volatility is expected and Money shifts to Banks, Energy, and Telecoms.
Complex correction is the most probable scenario!
Higher volatility (increased ATR):
looking at the performance of indexes in the past 3 weeks shows:
Dow Jones: +6.42%
S&P 500: +5.64%
Russell 2000: 5.07%
Nasdaq 100: 3.75%
Now let's review the performance of the sectors and industries I mentioned in the previous analysis:
Energy: +9.74% in the past 3 weeks(Equally weight-adjusted)
OXY:+14.47%
VLO: +12.62%
PSX: +12.24%
MPC: +9.96%
XOM: +8.28%
COP: +8.24%
CVX: +6.14%
BP: +6.09%
Banks: +6.64% in the past 3 weeks(Equally weight-adjusted)
WFC: +10.47%
BAC: +9.39%
GS: +6.47%
MS: +6.16%
JPM: +6.03%
C:+1.32%
Telecom: +2.83% in the past 3 weeks(Equally weight-adjusted)
T:+9.29% (max:+10.66%)
VZ: +3.99%(max:+4.4%)
TUMS: +1.14%(max:8.68%)
CMCSA: -3.07%(max2.55%)
Overall performance of the 18 stocks:
+7.18% in the past 3 weeks(Equally weight-adjusted) which is:
12% better than DJI(+6.42), 27% better than SPX(+5.64%), 41% better than RUT (+5.07%) and 91.4% better than Nadaq100(+3.75%) ..!
17 out of 18 stocks had positive returns.
14 out of 18 stocks beat the Nasdaq performance in the same timeframe!
10 out of 18 stocks beat the performance of all 4 major indexes mentioned above!
Conclusion:
1-The Energy and Banks sector could continue their rally in January 2022..!
2-Tech stocks especially those which still burn cash, will experience a hard time in 2022, and any positive must be considered as transitory!
3-Small caps may experience lower prices and even Negative returns in 2022.
4-SPX, NDX, and DJI could have 10-15% returns in 2022.
5-Keep in mind that 12 monthly rates of change decreased by half in the past 10 months for SPX, NDX, and DJI which means expected market ROI should be lower in 2022 in comparison to 2021 and 2020!
6-For small caps this phenomenon is even worse, they lost 85% of their gains, and continuation of this phenomenon could lead to a negative return in 2022. ( Fundamentals also support depreciation of unprofitable business in high inflation era)
7- 2022 will be the year for those who know how to handle high volatility! A year for aggressive portfolio management strategies!
I will provide updates for this analysis as needed.
Best,
Moshkelgosha
DISCLAIMER
I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA, an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
NASDAQ RSI hit the long-term Buy ZoneNasdaq is giving a double long-term buy signal as besides the RSI on the 1D time-frame entering the Buy Zone that has been in effect since the March 2020 market crash, the price itself hit the Higher Lows trend-line that has been holding since the November 2020 U.S. elections bottom. The 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) is right below as it was on all 3 major bottoms of 2021 (March 05, May 13, October 04).
We expect the Channel Up top again around 18000 (1.786 Fibonacci extension) by the end of March.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. **
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Nasdaq 100 Potential Buy Zones1st buy zone at about 15250 (S/R and 61.8 Fibonacci)
2nd buy zone at about 14900 (S/R and 78.6 Fibonacci)
Nasdaq Index - Bull or bear market more likely?I got a bit of criticism over not being clear enough in my previous chart. So i have created specifically a Nasdaq index chart which will show my thinking more clearly.
The Nasdaq index back at the start of 2000 was the bull market to end bull markets. The innovation of using the internet was a technological revolution and no one saw an end to the bull market...until it ended.
The end coincided with a break of medium term trendline as the internet startups folded one by one. From that point onwards the Nasdaq entered a brear market and didn't recover the old highs for another 15 years.
We're in a similiar position today, with the fed about to raise rates to control inflation, no one appears to think the impossible is possible.
It is.
If we break this medium term trendline, which appears to be very close to breaking (2 weekly closes below the line would confirm a break), we would expect a bear market to follow. This could take decades to recover from.
What goes up, must also come down (at least a bit).
The fact that the nasdaq market cap is more than half comprised of only 6 companies, suggests that it is just as sensitive to a large correction today. Albeit the reasons for a bear market will be very different.
Easy money has distorted the markets and funds like Arkk that think 40% annualised returns are possible with these stocks may be signs that we are at frenzy level of bullishness (just like in 2000).
I do not expect the bear market to be as bad as the beginning of the millenium, however i do think it will be signficiant and it could be coming sooner than expected, with fed tightening expected to quicken.
Ndx Watch Hour: I Have Three Pointshey nq_f lovers glad to have you in this week.
In this video, I explain the three points the market is likely to reach if you missed the train.
Be sure to watch to get the points!
You can also see this video as a guide.
Listen, trading is risky and not easy. Be sure to not trust anyone---even me!
Please leave a comment, like and follow-up if you enjoy my feeds or not. Haha! still follow me either way.
Ndx Trade Review: A Detailed PlanIt's Sunday a day for reviews. In this video, I talk about my confluences for taking trades, weaknesses and strengths...
I even have resolutions---Haha! check this one out.
Listen, trading is risky and not easy. Be sure to not trust anyone---even me!
Please leave a comment, like and follow-up if you enjoy my feeds or not. Haha! still follow me either way.
NAS100 USD NQ1! NASDAQ 2022 JAN 10 NAS100 USD NQ1! NASDAQ 2022 JAN 10
Last week's short preference worked well, and rotation low
target reached.
Weekly: Uptrend channel, near demand line.
High volume down bar close near low = weakness still
present
Daily = Uptrend channel, price is near demand line.
High volume down bar closing off low = some demand.
H4:High volume down bar closing off low.
Short preferred on retracement for intrady.
17441 17070
16767
16660 16481
16135 15905
15538 15250
15000 14892
Short on Test and Reject | Long on Test and Accept
Remember to Like and Follow if you find this useful.
Have a profitable trading week ahead.
Nasdaq 100: Reversal at lower Bouhmidi Band Bouhmidi - Long Reversal in play - This looks like a chartbook reversal forming also a double bottom in area of lower BB. Half hour to go it seem that we close in the Bandwidth.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Do you want to know more about the BB and apply them on your TV-Charts? Check my script here:
Nasdaq 100 bear target 15000 then 18000Nasdaq correction a few days more and then wave 5 of (3) will finalize
Follows the pitchfork channel
Ndx: Nfp Is Here, Signs To Watch Out ForHey lovers, made a short clip on the signs I'll be watching out for---today's nfp and you don't want to be left out.
What are your plans for Nfp?
Some key levels---15888-16000 (bulls)
15888-15550 (bears)
Watch the whole clip to get my reaction!
Listen, trading is risky and not easy. Be sure to not trust anyone---even me!
Please leave a comment, like and follow-up if you enjoy my feeds or not. Haha! still follow me either way.
Ndx: Are The Bulls Coming Back?After yesterday's success, I'm really happy with the year already.
Anyway, the market has finally gotten to the bullish key level giving it---it's third touch.
I guess the main question is, "are we getting a new higher low?"
Watch the whole clip to get my reaction!
Listen, trading is risky and not easy. Be sure to not trust anyone---even me!
Please leave a comment, like and follow-up if you enjoy my feeds or not. Haha! still follow me either way.
Ndx: Again, Wait For The New HighThe train left.
Wait for the new high...
Well, it's a good thing I waited... huh!
These bears weren't done and it saved me some cash.
Now I await the pull!
Be sure to watch the whole clip, like, comment and follow me. I appreciate all your contributions to my work.
Happy a great week!
Lazyluchi.
NASDAQ testing the 1D MA50. Buy opportunity.I haven't updated my NDX outlook since December 17 but so far it appears to be trading according to plan after accurately catching that bottom:
Today the index made contact with the 1D MA50 again (blue trend-line) and that's a pattern we've seen before twice within this multi-month Channel Up on the chart.
As you see, every time Nasdaq approaches the previous High (Fib 1.0) following a Channel Up bottom, the price pulls back to the 1D MA50 (orange circle) and then the rise continues all the way to the 1.786 Fibonacci extension. As a result, we treat this pull-back as a mid-term buy opportunity, especially for those who missed the December bottom. Our target is 17600.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. **
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
US100 update As said earlier selling pressure is hard and now markets are crashing heading for the support of the channel,,,, patience and timing is all you need
Ndx: Watch Hour Opening Firstly, I just want to congratulate everyone who made it to this year. I pray for success and positivity for y'all.
Nasdaq100 has been on a roll for a while now... The indecision between the bulls and bears have made me to just wait at the sidelines.
My edge hasn't fully played out so---I'm not about to force things.
In this video, I explain all that should be done.
Be sure to watch the whole clip, like, comment and follow me. I appreciate all your contributions to my work.
Happy a great week!
Lazyluchi.