Nasdaq100 and my 3 bearish scenariosOf course, there is also the bullish, new ATH scenario, but this, in my opinion, is the less probable of them all.
So, after breaking under 15500 support, Nas100 fell strongly and reached my target at 14k (I went lower, but who counts). Now the index is in consolidation and loss digesting.
I consider 3 scenarios for down continuation:
1. Nasdaq will drop directly, without a retesting of FED day's high, and a break under 13500 low should accelerate losses towards the next important support at 12.5k
2. We will have a retest of the 14500 zone followed by the same drop to 12.5k
3. And this is less probable considering the selling pressure, Nasdaq will rise and test the broken support, now resistance, at 15500, of course, followed by the drop to 12500.
In conclusion, in my opinion, Nas100 will continue to the downside towards 12500
Best of luck!
Mihai Iacob
NASDAQ 100 CFD
The Nasdaq Long-Term (Potential For Major Crash | ~70%)When we look at the long-term chart for the NASDAQ Index (NDX), going back to 1985, we have only one major crash and that is between the year 2000 and 2003.
The NDX saw a 80%+ correction.
That is a drop of -83.49% in 944 days.
Here is the chart:
It took the index over 6,000 days to recover to its year 2000 All-Time High...
We believe a new correction will take place.
When we look closer at the monthly chart, multiple bearish signals we can appreciate...
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1) We can see the TD Sequential printing a perfect 9, telling us that the market is overextended. In the next few sessions doubt start to crip in.
2) In October we have a full green candlestick. The candle that follows with a #2 is a shooting star, a bearish candle.
3) The next candle is a Doji, signaling indecision in the market...
4) This months current candle, we have a full red/bearish candle which is moving below EMA10. Another red candle and we have full breakdown confirmation. Only a close above the Doji's high can cancel this signal out.
At the same time, we have a MACD trending bearish with a young bullish cross:
We have bearish divergence on the RSI since January 2018... The NDX is getting ready to drop.
The monthly candle closes in 5 days at which point we either get a rejection or confirmation based on candlestick reading.
Closing below 14,750 would be strongly bearish for this index.
We expect a very strong crash throughout all markets unless something critical happens on the positive side in the next few months.
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NASDAQ - Bear run over?Pinbar in the daily chart is signaling a slow down of the downward trend with a potential up within the next days. Target 1 is the Resistance Area and Target 2 is the lower line of the Longterm Trend Channel. Don't forget to put your SL below the Support Zone in case you pick long now. Likely the Support Zone will be retested.
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🎯 About my posts: They are kept self-explanatory in order to avoid overcomplicating and confusion. Mostly price signals and trend analysis combined with chart patterns.
Disclaimer: This is not an investment advice
Nasdaq100- A pull back can happen- good opportunity for shortLast week, after breaking under important 15500 support, I said that I expect Nas100 to fall to the 14k zone.
The drop happened very quickly and even exceeded my target with a low of around 13.500.
Now the index is in a normal recovery and this can provide bears a good opportunity to enter the market.
My sell zone is 14.500-15k and only a daily close above 15k would put a pause in this scenario
The first target can be yesterday's low.
Best of luck in shorting Nasdaq:)!
Mihai Iacob
Technical analysis update: Nasdaq 100 (21st January 2022)General stock market continues to experience weakness. Nasdaq 100 declined to a new low at 14 602.25 USD while subsequently reaching our two price targets. Because of that we decided to update our thoughts on this index. We continue to maintain a bearish stance on NQ1!. Our view is supported by technical factors which continue to point to the downside. However, we have to note the price of NQ1! experienced fast and steep decline along which it deviated too far from its 10-day SMA (Simple Moving Average) and 20-day SMA. Because of that we would not be surprised to see price retracement towards these two moving averages in the following days. Though, if volatility will continue to increase (at its current pace) then it is likely that full retracement will not occur, half retracement is more probable. Because of our bearish view we would like to set a new short-term price target for NQ1! to 14 500 USD. Additionally, our medium-term price target for NQ11! is 14 250 USD.
Illustration 1.01
Picture above shows the daily chart of NQ1! with volume indicated below it (green and red bars). Volume remains relatively high with no signs of decline. This suggests that selling pressure will most likely remains persistent for while.
Technical analysis - daily time frame
RSI crossed below 30 points into oversold territory. MACD and Stochastic remain bearish. DM+ and DM- continue to show bearish conditions in the market. ADX increases which suggests that the bearish trend is gaining strength. Overall, the daily time frame is bearish. However, it also signals the price got oversold relative to its short-term past which often precedes short lived bounce in price.
Technical analysis - weekly time frame
RSI, Stochastic, DM+ and DM- are bearish. MACD is bearish too despite the fact that it appears in the bullish zone. ADX stopped its decline and reversed to the upside which suggests the new bearish trend gains strength. Overall, the weekly time frame remains bearish.
Support and resistance
Short-term resistance sits at 14 807.50 USD and short-term support lies at 14 585.50 USD. Support 1 appears at 14 367.75 USD and Resistance 1 appears at 15 708.75 USD. Major resistance is at 16 767.50 USD which is all time high for NQ1!.
Please feel free to express your own ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
Our latest thought on NQ1! from 18th January 2021.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Your own due diligence is highly advised before entering trade.
NASDAQ - How far can we fall?NASDAQ is approaching the next Support Zone. Picking long around 14040 with stop-loss is possible. On the daily chart, I do not see any clear indication yet, which is signaling that the downtrend is reversing.
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🚀 Follow for daily posts
🎯 About my posts: They are kept self-explanatory in order to avoid overcomplicating and confusion. Mostly price signals and trend analysis combined with chart patterns.
Disclaimer: This is not an investment advice
Bearish outlook, bullish short term? On the monthly we can see a pretty nice bearish Wolfe wave wedge formed, with wave 5 already making its peak or swing high. This Wolfe wave is now be considered in play and looking for its target. ( I know im posting weekly chart ) BUT... We are coming to a crucial support level that we have not yet tested. I would not put all my marbles on it, but I would not be surprised to see a decent reaction off of this level. It is a possibiliy. It is not uncommon to see wave 5 of a Wolfe wave form the head to a head & shoulders or inverse head & shoulders pattern.
My thought is that crucial support becomes neckline to a bigger pattern head & shoulders. The right shoulder will create a bull trap for bulls who think the NDX will go on to make another ATH. When NDX price action shows a lower volume and a weakness to make a new ATH. Market direction will become even more obvious. And bulls and bears will come into more agreement with each other of where the market is headed. If NDX does make a move up to or near the left shoulder, it is possible we could see a short term bounce with Bitcoin and the crypto market as well. Please comment your thoughts
NASSIE, where do we go next?The market will be split between these 2 directions over the coming days and I can make a good argument for both though the bearish scenario looks a lot more obvious given the recent price action, technical breakdowns and hot inflation reports. Just remember, there's always a thin line between what the market makers make you feel will happen vs. what ultimately happens. We've seen some good examples of that since September 2020 already hence why it's important we don't lose focus on the bigger macro picture.
In a nutshell:
Ultimate bear scenario is for NDX to go as far down as 14385 and even 14030/13765 if 14950 and 14760 are consecutively lost. I personally don't believe this scenario will play out though it is a possibility I will be considering. The close today and tomorrow are crucial.
Ultimate bull case scenario is to find strong support around 14950/15000 on NDX however there are many headwinds ahead. NQ needs to recapture 15152, 15312 and 15415 to start building some short-term bullish bias. The real test and decisive moment for the index will be around 15550/15600.
We may have already started a bear market or we may be deflating the froth to enable bulls for the remainder of the year, I favor the later despite seeing new challenges and choppiness ahead.
A Nasdaq100 HistoryNasdaq100 this bad girl was born on 8th of February, 1971. At that time, she was worth just—$708.16. Chilling, I mean she’d go to every bar to flaunt her beauty, such a tease!
The babe needed the whole world to know she existed. Guess what? she got noticed.
Everyone started to pay attention—street guys, thugs, jay-walkers name them… a sad turn-of-event, In 1973, Yup! the mama crashed. 400 points were deducted from her (stock market crash) net worth. These notice-pad took advantage of her. Bad timing if you ask me. As an observer, The deduction came after the collapse of the Bretton-woods brothers system accompanied by the October 1973, oil-crisis. Like I said, “a sad turn-of-event”. Anyway,
It only lasted for a year but took months (11 months) though. Nas100 came back with a surge—I’ve never seen that kind of glow up in years. The beauty that she is—doubled her net worth by 5580 points (December of ’74-September, 2002).
Honestly, like I muttered, “never saw that one coming”.
Nasdaq100 Humpty-Dumptied
In schools, they usually said, “Humpty-Dumpty sat on the wall, Humpty had a great fall…” Right? I mean it’s been long—but Ndx… as she likes to be nick-named, decided to be the next humpty… thinking, “if she crossed her legs, her fall might be posh”, Oh, no miss!
You got served.
Ndx—didn’t just fall, I think she crashed. You know that 5,580 points she gained? It vanished, by—3,000 points lower. This time, it was a freaking bubble gum called “dot-com” like… who even chews bubble gums on walls. Hearing that story just made me so mad.
The clouds were clear actually, sirens of blue-red were all I could see. Nq (another nick-name try to catch up hun.) stayed in the hospital for—Two and half years before… she could walk again.
The popular big wheel-chair in March of 2003, is the talk of town. Apparently, Nasdaq100 came to school in style. She tried to gain her place but failed terribly, “again”. At this point, no-one cared. Her worth barely got past $4,000.
“A resilient one”, I must say because, Nq never gave up.
An Unexpected Nasdaq100 Growth
Four years after, Nas100 is still struggling. We all took turns to visit—now we were concerned. Depression came knocking—in August, 2007, her net worth went back to $2,000. This time around it was a bank problem, They called it, “The rejection of the bank bailout bill by the congress” Whatever that meant. The news travelled wide that—we couldn’t help but see how she was faring.
It lasted till February, 2009. Surprisingly in 2018, she was back to school. This time: the glow up was unbelievable—her net worth went from $2,000 to $16,600. I mean, for a moment… I’m actually lost for words till this day.
Currently, she has about 100 companies in her name; all of which aided to her massive growth. According to history, that’s actually why she’s called “Nasdaq100”.
Hey! Jamal, did you like my story? Are you sleeping, what the hell—wake up!
Ndx Watch Hour... A New Bearish Pull?According to the chart below, you can tell that you need to actually watch this clip to get it right?...
Anyway, last week was bearish and now we're seeing what looks like a double bottom the question now is---Are the bears done?
Well, that depends on the Higher low at 15300 right?
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NAS100 bearish signal following protocol Our previous NAS100 chart has confirmed a strong bearish signal on our daily and weekly timeframes. Please not that I have adjusted the target after noticing that it was off. Once we reached this target I will send a long term signal to reach a new all time high.
Please note that 99.5% of my ideas have hit at least TP¹ & TP², 87% Have HIT all TP's and at most 8% changed direction after meeting at least 2 targets.
NASDAQ formed Higher Lows with the 1D MA50 being the key.Nasdaq futures formed a new Higher Low within the long-term Channel Up on Friday and today (due to the Martin Luther King holiday) is naturally consolidating. This is still a bottom formation signal, as the very same Higher Lows pattern (green arrow) was previously seen in early October. That was a bottom formation with the 1D CCI sequences of then and now being identical. The confirmation for a rally will come once the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) breaks as it happened on October 18.
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