NASDAQ Potential Upside Breakout on the HorizonMany reasons to suspect a potential bullish breakout in terms of technicals as shown on the chart.
With regards to fundamentals, there's lots of rhetoric surrounding interest rate hikes sure.., but on the contrary inflation could very well be peaking.
In my belief the only reason US equities are correcting is due to the fact that the dollar is expected to gain in value which attracts less international investors thus converting currencies to invest in US stocks becomes of less interest. With that said, I could be wrong.. This is just what I observe.
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Trade Safe - Trade Well
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Michael Harding 😎 Chief Technical Strategist @ LEFTURN Inc.
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NASDAQ 100 CFD
NAS100 USD NQ1! NASDAQ 2022 Jun 27 Week
NAS100 USD NQ1! NASDAQ 2022 Jun 27 Week
Last week NQ chose the path of history scenario3, when strength on
weekly bar exerted influence.
Possible scenarios:
1) Trendline Resistance for temporary short opportunity
2) 12442-12533: if price goes to this level on low volume, possible short
3) If market test lower levels 11745/11348 and finds support = long opportunity
Strategy for next week will be to long on retracement.
Weekly = Low vol up bar close at high = some weakness.
Daily = Ave vol up bar close at high = minor strength.
H4: High vol up bar close at high = strength
Price reaction levels:
Short on Test and Reject | Long on Test and Accept
12906 12442 12140 12082
11745 11348 11068 10359
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Have a profitable trading week ahead.
Nasdaq 100 reclaims its May lows with positive moment divergenceThe Nasdaq 100 is one of many examples this week that saw a surge back over its May lows, with positive momentum divergence.
We're still in a primary downtrend, so nothing has changed from that perspective, however, with overall market sentiment in the dumps, squeezes like this can be quite extreme.
NDX/USD Its just an idea nothing else.ndx forms a W Bullish pattern. at point 1st buy it retested its spot and boom. lets see what happens next
nasdaq has another correction to make it real deep !The Nasdaq index completes a diametric well, and is probably building an X-wave to enter another correction.
At the monthly time, the two Ichimoko averages should intersect at the end of each other to say that the market correction is completely over.
NDX 100 WARNING: ABC wave C may reach 10500 or even 9500Since last week I have been warning that there will be a short oversold rally after FED testimonies in Congress & Senate but the worst is not yet over despite retailers rushing to buy the dip & exchanges trying very hard to keep BTC above the impt 20k in order to prevent mass selling.
NDX Nasdaq 100 has been making a downchannel since it turned down after completing wave B @15265. The most probable support is at 10500, which is a 36% crash from ATH. 10500 (double my yellow box) is also a confluence of the 0.618 retracement from pandemic low to ATH & the weekly wma200 level. If 10500 fails then the pre-pandemic top @9500 will be the maximum pain, which is a 42% drop from ATH of 16764.
After ABC ends, the target levels for take profit will be 12k & 13k respectively indicated by blue arrows.
Not trading advice
Nasdaq100
The Nasdaq100 NASDAQ:NDX couldn’t hold above the support levels mentioned in our last report at 11376 points and opened the week with a gap below the significant 50%Fib. Level to open at 11472 points signaling that the bears are controlling the market backed by the bad news of the economy, then bears confirmed their control after the FED rate hike of 0.75 % last Wednesday to raise the interest rate to 1.75% and that will be reflected and affecting the earning results of the companies next month, breaking the 200EMA this week and closing below this level at 11265 points is the first confirmation of beginning a bear market on the medium term and may be the beginning of a downtrend on longer term.
The NASDAQ:NDX may witness a rebound to test the level of 11376 again and failing to penetrate this level or forming a lower high before even testing this level will be the second bearish signal for the index and that will lead the NASDAQ:NDX to more losses and we may witness panic selloff sessions, especially if the NASDAQ:NDX break the 10600 points level which is the most important and significant level on the medium term.
Investors with long positions are advised to use a disciplined risk management tools and activate the stop loss with all trades firmly
Investors with short positions are advised to use just 30% of their cash and use the trailing stop and the protective stop strategy
NASDAQ:NDX TVC:NDQ NASDAQ:QQQ NASDAQ:TQQQ AMEX:PSQ NASDAQ:SQQQ AMEX:SPY SP:SPX AMEX:SPXS TVC:DJI AMEX:SPY AMEX:DIA AMEX:DXD AMEX:DOG NASDAQ:IXIC
NDX - We might be heading towards 5000 by end of 2024Nasdaq 100 has been in a downtrend since last many months. I feel there is more downside, rather much more. I see may be in downtrend till late 2024 or early 2025 and it may fall till around 4,700.
We saw it took support of 200 EMA on Monthly at the time of DotCom bubble and again took support of 200 EMA at the time of 2008 recession. If we are heading towards similar times, it may again touch 200 EMA in next 1 - 1.5 years.
NAS100 USD NQ1! NASDAQ 2022 Jun 20 Week
NAS100 USD NQ1! NASDAQ 2022 Jun 20 Week
Last week was a week for the shorts. Nice short on test of gap, and previous support
11068 was tested. Some demand returned on Friday, especially salient on the weekly bar.
Support may push prices higher. I'll prefer to wait for price reaction to 11068.
Possible Scenarios:
1) Short if retracement to high price levels are on low volume, and then market continue to fall
2) Rotation between 11068-10358 (grey box): Trade at boundary (wait for signs of S/R)
3) History repeats
Weekly = Higher vol down bar close off low = demand coming in
Daily = Higher vol down bar close off low + ave vol up bar close
off high = minor strength
H4: UHV widespread Up bar + lower bar = Effort no result = weakness
Price reaction levels:
Short on Test and Reject | Long on Test and Accept
12442 11795 11068
10788 10563 10359
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Have a profitable trading week ahead.
Combining 1D & 2D MACD Cross to find reliable positionsDASHED LINES:
When the 12 EMA crosses above the 26 EMA on the 1D MACD we get a reliable signal that the price will rise (will be higher by the next alert).
SOLID LINES:
When the same occurs on the 2D MACD we get confirmation.
And vice versa when the 12 EMAs cross below the 26 EMAs, the price will fall (will be lower by the next alert).
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As you can see, this has proven to be consistently reliable, with only one failed signal going as far back as the chart shows.
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To trade conservatively, close any short or long positions when alerted by the 1D MACD.
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The current open position is short as per the solid Red Line yesterday.
Going off the pattern length, candles should at least remain red for the next six days on the 3D.
Disclaimer: Don’t take my advice.
This chart was made as auxiliary support for BTCUSD falling.
NASDAQ preparing a mid-March rebound with eyes on the 1W MA200Our last analysis on Nasdaq (NDX) 10 days ago, came with a warning that as long as the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) and the Lower Highs trend-line of the long-term Channel Down held, the trend was bearish towards the 11500 Support:
As you see the 11500 target was eventually hit, and with the Fed making an interest rate raise yesterday of 0.75% (the biggest hike since 1994), the index eyes the 1W MA200 (red trend-line) for the first time since August 2010, as more and more market participants call for a recession.
However, as long as the 1W MA200 holds, we have to go with the pattern in hand, i.e. the Channel Down which calls for a short-term rebound above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and on the 1D MA100 to form a new Lower High. Target range: 13000 - 13400.
A 1W candle closing below the 1W MA200 should be enough to kick-start a sharp fall to the 1W MA300 (yellow line, scroll the chart downwards to see).
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Nasdaq - bearish for the next few weeks/monthsBearish until price taps back into the 2020 3rd quarterly earnings week. Where we have an order block that gave us a nice long term buy back in 2020, I believe we will still see some nice opportunities to go long (short term) around the 10900 and 10800 prices.
Nasdaq-100 Riding on/below lower Bollinger Band Daily & WeeklyAfter 4 days of intense selling, we're back to new cycle drawdown lows in the Nasdaq-100. Meanwhile, the selling has pushed us below the lower Bollinger Bands on multiple time-frames (weekly chart left and daily chart right). It's nasty out there.
$US100 - Nasdaq entered a strong buy zoneI'll be focusing to buy as long as the price is above 11,093 - and not taking the risk to buy below it for now.
NAS100 USD NQ1! NASDAQ 2022 Jun 13 Week
NAS100 USD NQ1! NASDAQ 2022 Jun 13 Week
Last week short preference worked well. Scenario1 UT target 12180 reached.
Possible Scenarios:
1) Short on retracement
2) Rotation: Trade at boundary (wait for signs of S/R)
3) Test and Reject of T1 area for short
4) Downtrend continuation after rotation: Short on Test and Reject
Weekly = Average vol down bar closing at low = weakness
Daily = Low vol wide spread down bar closing at low = minor strength
H4: Low vol down bar close off low - minor strength
Price reaction levels:
Short on Test and Reject | Long on Test and Accept
14729 14365 13587
13025 - 12883 12442 12256
11855 11518 11100-11068
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Have a profitable trading week ahead.
Tech selling today?NASDAQ
Intraday - We look to Sell at 12850 (stop at 13035)
Buying pressure from 12410 resulted in prices rejecting the dip. The current move higher is expected to continue. The bias is still for lower levels and we look for any gains to be limited. We therefore, prefer to fade into the rally with a tight stop in anticipation of a move back lower.
Our profit targets will be 12325 and 11490
Resistance: 12935 / 13380 / 13830
Support: 12380 / 11490 / 10675
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Nasdaq trading above very important level long or shortThis is not financial advice. This is for only my private trade plan. If you have follow at your own risk.
Nasdaq 100 - An indecisive moment for the short-termThe last Friday, the Nasdaq 100 index failed to move below the short-term support at 12 442.50 USD. That highly raises the odds of a bear market rally continuing further. A breakout above the short-term resistance will suggest the index will test the next resistance level at 13 555.25 USD. Despite that, we do not foresee any changes to bearish fundamental factors. Therefore, we have no reason to change our medium and long-term bearish outlook on NQ1!. However, we are indecisive about where the market is headed next in the short term. Therefore, we are very cautious, and we will monitor the price action (and volume) throughout the day.
Technical analysis - daily time frame
RSI is neutral. MACD is bullish but in bearish territory. Stochastic oscillates in the bullish area. DM+ and DM- are bullish; however, ADX shows the trend is turning neutral. Overall, the daily time frame is neutral.
Illustration 1.01
The picture shows the failure of the NQ1! to make a new low below the short-term support.
Technical analysis - weekly time frame
RSI points to the upside; however, its bearish structure remains intact. Stochastic oscillates in the bearish area. MACD is flattening. DM+ and DM- are bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish.
Illustration 1.02
The choppy price action forms the neutral zone between short-term support and short-term resistance.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
NASDAQ Sideways but still off the top of the Channel DownNasdaq (NDX) has been trading sideways since May 30. The 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) is right above with the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) being roughly around the Lower Highs (top) trend-line of the Channel Down.
Based on our previous analysis 2 weeks ago, the index was on a W pattern aiming at the Resistance as part of the Lower Highs formation:
So far so good if you took that buy, you may start taking profit at will. The reason is that only a break above the 1D MA100 can justify further buying and that's only to the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), which last time rejected the uptrend from March 29 to April 05. Until the Lower Highs break, the trend is bearish towards the 11500 Support. A confirmed sell if you are looking for a lower risk factor, would be when the MACD makes a Bearish Cross.
As for a long-term bullish reversal only a weekly candle closing above the 15300 March 29 High can sustain it.
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NAS100 USD NQ1! NASDAQ 2022 Jun 06 Week
NAS100 USD NQ1! NASDAQ 2022 Jun 06 Week
Last week 12594 fought hard to hold up the market. UT has been confirmed now
as market closed below 12594. Preference will be to short on retracement with
3 TFs showing weakness on the background.
Possible Scenarios:
1) UT setup confirmed: Targets 12180 // 11690
2) Breakout, then we will need to adjust strategy to long on retracement
Weekly = Average vol UT bar close below H/C of previous bar = weakness
bar = strength + reversal
Daily = Average vol down bar close toward low = weakness
H4:Very High vol narrow spread up bar followed by lower vol up bar = weakness
Price reaction levels:
Short on Test and Reject | Long on Test and Accept
14729 14365 13587
13025 - 12883 12454 - 12594
12185 11518 11100-11068
Remember to Like and Follow if you find this useful.
Have a profitable trading week ahead.
Nasdaq 100 - Why the downtrend will continue to unravelOver the past few weeks, we have been raising caution about the “bear market rally” in the stock market and cryptocurrencies. Then, yesterday, we warned about the rally's waning volume. We speculated that it was foreshadowing a possible bull trap; and we expressed our expectations of invalidation of the bullish breakouts (ones that pierced above the high from 31st May 2022 and 1st June 2022). Since then, these breakouts became invalidated, and the Nasdaq 100 index declined 2%. At the moment, we monitor the situation and look for an increase in volume, suggesting further growth in selling pressure. Over the course of the year, we expect the Nasdaq 100 to continue its gradual decline toward a new low.
Negative fundamental factors
We still foresee foes to the rising price of NQ1! among higher interest rates in the U.S. and economic tightening. Accordingly, we expect these developments to weigh on the index throughout 2022. Another development we pay close attention to is the measure of bounces in particular stocks, which are characteristic of the downtrend. Furthermore, we also continue to see institutional players offload their assets while retail investors are on the hunt for stocks at a discount; inflows are also very small compared to their past levels. We expect lay traders to be shaken out of the market once substantial declines start taking place; thus, they will reinforce the selling pressure and drag prices lower. Overall, fundamental factors are very bearish for the U.S. stock market, with the FED set to pursue demand destruction.
Technical analysis - daily time frame
RSI and Stochastic turned bearish. MACD points to the upside, but it remains below the 0 points. DM+ and DM- performed bullish crossover; we will look for its invalidation in the short term. Overall, the daily time frame is bearish for NQ1!.
Illustration 1.01
The picture above shows recent bullish breakouts and invalidations of them. Retracement of breakouts will be bullish for NQ1!.
Technical analysis - weekly time frame
RSI, MACD, and Stochastic remain bearish. The same applies to DM+ and DM-. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish.
Illustration 1.02
Illustration 1.02 shows simple support/resistance levels. Favorably, we would like to see further confirmation of our thesis by the plunge of NQ1! below the short-term support.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
NDX JPMorgan: economic hurricane coming our way!Jamie Dimon, the JPMorgan Chase CEO:
"Right now it's kind of sunny, things are doing fine. Everyone thinks the Fed can handle this." "That hurricane is right out there down the road coming our way." "We just don't know if it's a minor one or Superstorm Sandy. You better brace yourself."
Jamie Dimon is predicting an economic "hurricane" caused by rising inflation , interest rate hikes and the war in Ukraine.
I have 2 scenarios: the most optimistic is that NDX formed and inverse head and shoulders chart pattern and it will close the year at the same level that it started it, around $16650.
And the worst case scenario is if Jamie Diamon is right and we are going lower after this bounce to the resistance.
In this case, the first strong support is $9750.
I see that it go lower only if oil stays higher than $140 - 150 for this year, then this is the strongest sign of a recession or if China invades Taiwan.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
Nasdaq 100 - Bear market rally shows loss of momentumThe Nasdaq 100 futures erased some of their early gains. Currently, NQ1! trades around 12 600 USD. We continue to be bearish on the index as we think that the current rally is indeed a “bear market rally”. As a result, we expect the bearish trend of a higher degree to resume and the market to continue toward new lows. Today we will pay attention to the close price.
Technical analysis - daily time frame
RSI, MACD, and Stochastic flatten. DM+ and DM- failed to produce bullish crossover. Overall, the daily time frame is bearish.
Illustration 1.01
We will watch today's close price. If it is above yesterday's close price, it will be a bullish sign; however, if the NQ1! closes below yesterday's close price, then that will hint at the possible deterioration of the rally's momentum
Technical analysis - weekly time frame
RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
