NAS100 NQ1! NASDAQ 2022 NOV 07 WEEK
NQ1!
NQ is now in Rotation zone 11730 - 10891.
Weekly chart shows first higher close down bar than the
previous down bar, some demand may be expected for
rotational long opportunity.
Possible scenarios:
1) Rotation zone 11730 - 10890: Trades can be executed at
boundary of range, possible target 11345 if long. If Price didn't
manage to reach 11345 or is resisted there, take out your long.
2) Breakdown scenario if redistribution schematic is fulfilled
= Short on test of breakdown of 10890 / 10485
3) Breakout of rotation = long on test if 11730
becomes support
Weekly = Ave vol down bar close off low = some demand
(Note: this down bar closed higher than the last down bar,
rotation possibility continues and demand coming in)
Daily = Higher vol (ave) up bar close off high = some demand
H4 = Ave vol up bar close of high = No demand
Price reaction levels:
Short on Test and Reject | Long on Test and Accept
12987 12140 11730
10890 10485 10000
9748
Remember to Like and Follow if you find this useful.
Have a profitable trading week ahead.
NASDAQ 100 CFD
NASDAQ One last Low left on perfect symmetryNasdaq (NDX) is pulling-back following the Fed's +0.75% Rate Hike and a rejection on Tuesday on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). With the help of the RSI on the 1D time-frame, we can see that so far the whole bearish sequence since the August 16 High, is very similar to the bearish sequence that followed after the March 30 High.
A striking similarity is that both got rejected on the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level just under the 1D MA50. On June 03 that was the rejection that delivered the last sell-off before the mid-June - mid-August rally. That sell-off made its Low on the -0.118 Fibonacci extension. On the current Bearish Sequence, this extension is on 10105.
For illustration and better comparison purposes, I have plotted the first two Bearish Sequences od 2022 on top of the current (post August 16 High) and on the blue table all three together. The pattern is obvious.
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NASDAQ - DAILYOn Daily:
price is moving in downwards channel
H&S target and redline marked falls are achieved, after which price is going up
There is another pattern which happened twice before, marked in yellow ovals.
after reaching the trend-line support, price retraces up, and then fall again to re-test the trend-line.
Here price rejected from the orange marked region. This means, price can go back to trend-line, .618 FIB, and daily or weekly support.
IF
the price crosses this orange region, then it can test weekly S&R at 12000ish area. may make LH there, if not ,then it will go to its .618 golden region of rejection, from which it rejected twice precisely.
Nasdaq 100 Index - RSI Positive Divergence on the Weekly ChartJust like on the S&P weekly chart (that I've posted on Oct 13th - S&P is up by about 8% since then), the RSI indicator is showing us a positive divergence on the Nasdaq 100 weekly chart. Fibonacci levels also give us some idea about the movement of the candles. Combining these with the Stochastic, does this mean a shift in the market? Weekly charts take a longer time to develop so I guess we'll wait and see.
NASDAQ Bullish reversal confirmed as per previous 2022 reboundsJust a few days following our last analysis, the Nasdaq Index (NDX) broke above its 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) for the first time since August 26:
As mentioned then, the factor that made the difference in our decision to call for a buy was the RSI Bullish Divergence on the 1D time-frame which has been trading on Higher Highs/ Higher Lows (Channel Up) since October 03, while the actual price action has been on Lower Highs and Lower Lows (Channel Down).
The current rebound is consistent with the previous medium-term rebounds throughout the 2022 Bear Cycle, that started after the bottoms of February 24 and June 16. We can see the very same Channel Up on the 1D RSI during those bottoms. Both of those medium-term rebounds, broke above the 1D MA50 (red trend-line) and targeted the 1D MA200 (green trend-line), which has marginally hit on the March 29/30 High and approached on the August 16 High. Interestingly enough, the RSI Channel Up patterns broke to the upside around the time the price broke above the 4H MA200.
With the 4H MA200 broken, our short-term target is now the 1D MA50 and the medium-term 300 points below the 1D MA200. The projection from where we stand today, puts the 1D MA200 just above 12500 by mid November.
For comparison purposes in order to get a better understanding of Nasdaq's proportionate position compared to the previous rebounds, we've plotted all rebound sequences on top of another (Black line = Feb 24 - March 30, Grey line = June 21 - August 16 and Yellow line = October 02 - today). It is obvious how closely correlated all three sequences are.
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My prediction for the $NDXI think the market is due for a 10-12% rebound in the next 20 to 25 days.
Then, the $NDX will face resistance between 12,200 and 12,500 and will pullback for an 8% to 10% over 8 to 10 days
Then, there will be an important point in the market:
1) Do we go back UP and reverse this bear market OR
2) Crash down another 20%
We will see! Cheers,
NASDAQ This drop is limited. Medium-term targets around 12500.The Nasdaq Index (NDX) has been pulling-back since Tuesday's (Oct 18) Lower High and is once again on its 4H MA50 (blue trend-line). What can be the difference maker here is the RSI on the 1D time-frame which has been trading on Higher Highs/ Higher Lows (Channel Up) since October 03, while the actual price action has been on Lower Highs and Lower Lows (Channel Down). This is a technical Bullish Divergence, often seen on market bottoms (temporary or not).
Since the long-term trend throughout 2022 has been bearish (Bear Cycle), we have to consider this as a temporary bottom at least for now. Such bottoms have been on February 24 and June 16 so far. Interestingly enough, we can see the very same Channel Up on the 1D RSI during those bottoms. Also we can see that their duration with today's is fairly symmetrical. Those bottoms started medium-term rebounds, which broke above the 1D MA50 (red trend-line) and targeted the 1D MA200 (green trend-line), which has marginally hit on the March 29/30 High and approached on the August 16 High.
They trigger to start a bullish break-out has been the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) and right now Nasdaq is trading below it. If it breaks, the short-term target should be the 1D MA50 and the medium-term the 1D MA200. The projection from where we stand today, puts the 1D MA200 just above 12500 by mid November.
For comparison purposes in order to get a better understanding of Nasdaq's proportionate position compared to the previous rebounds, I've plotted both sequences on today's price action (black and grey lines).
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S&P500 For the first time since the COVID sell off the SP:SPX closed the WEEK below the 200 SMA at 3583 points, for the previous three weeks the index was trying to test the support of the 200 SMA but after the heavy selling pressure in the other indexes TVC:DJI NASDAQ:IXIC and NASDAQ:NDX .
SP:SPX has broken the support to the downside and most of the stocks are closing at the lowest prices after breaking most of the medium and long-term supports. on the other hand, the indicators are confirming the same view as the RSI is below its moving average at 36 level, also the stochastic is still giving sell and weakness signals.
A small rebound is expected as a correction in the very short term closing the long positions, and opening short positions are recommended.
NASDAQ One last leg down or break above the 1D MA50?Nasdaq (NDX) is extending the Channel Down that started on the August 16 2022 High, making a Lower Low yesterday. With the assistance of the 1D RSI, we have spotted a recurring pattern that has already played out two times during this Bear Cycle since the start of the year and is currently forming the third one.
As you see, every such Lower Low sequence, made a bottom when the 1D RSI made a Low at the same level as the previous one. It is shown that the RSI has a somewhat triple bottom before the price rebounds. Right now the RSI is approaching the 30.000 level where the September 30 Low was made. The bottom of the previous Lower Low sequence was made on June 16 on the -0.5 Fibonacci extension from the March 15 Low. If each Low is a Fib level higher then the current one could be either on the -0.382, which is just below the 1W MA300 (yellow trend-line) or the -0.236 (just above the 10000 mark). Either way, the buy signal is given when the RSI hits 30.000.
It is not unlikely though to see a rebound without dipping that low as the sequence is almost completed and we saw a bullish reaction yesterday to the CPI. So if the index breaks above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) next, we can see a bullish extension towards the 1W MA100 (grey trend-line), which is the current Resistance as it has provided the last two rejection on August 16 and May 05.
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QQQ - Is a double bottom done rising? Recently, we warned that the market was likely to bounce after making new lows. Subsequently, that occurred, and the Nasdaq continuous futures rose approximately 7% from their lows. So now, we are again turning bearish on the index in the short term.
Our views, like previously, are based on a combination of fundamental and technical factors. We expect these factors to worsen as the FED continues tightening monetary conditions. Therefore, we have no reason to change our macroeconomic views and stick to the price target of 11 000 USD for NQ1!. Since our last price targets for QQQ were reached recently, we would like to set a new price target of 270 USD.
Illustration 1.01
Illustration 1.01 shows the price of QQQ retracing toward the 20-day SMA, which often coincides with the correction of a primary trend.
Technical analysis - daily time frame
RSI is neutral. MACD is also neutral. Stochastic is bullish. DM+ and DM- are bearish. Overall, the daily time frame is less bearish than a week ago.
Illustration 1.02
Illustration 1.02 displays the daily chart of QQQ and simple support/resistance levels.
Technical analysis - weekly time frame
RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
S&P500 2week 20ema/50ema Bear Crossover - Historic2degreez here. I am now eyeing the S&P500 2week 20ema/50ema Bear Crossover
It has historic significance as does the prior Weekly 20ema/100ema Bear Crossover that I have published previously.
This video shows a quick look back at the prior historic 2week 20ema/50ema bear crossovers and the subsequent moves down.
I also take a quick look at the NQ100 and how it is leading the way on these bear crossovers.
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This content is for informational, educational and entertainment purposes only. This is not in any way, shape or form financial or trading advice.
Good luck, happy trading and stay chill,
2degreez
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Bearish NASDAQ (US100) to Continue in Longer TermBased on the upcoming fundamental news such as Non-farm Payroll (NFP) today and CPI news next week, I would think NQ would be bearish with higher probability to follow yellow path.
I am hoping i was wrong, but given the recent geo-political news such as OPEC+ is reducing the oil output, it will drive price of goods to continue to go up, giving more pressure for higher inflation, and fed will try to slow inflation down by increasing interest rates more if there were no strategic initiative by US government to relieve the concerning situation.
NASDAQ Repeating the April-May fractal and how it can be avoidedNasdaq has been trading within a Channel Down pattern since the short-term High of August 16 that was rejected on the 1W MA100 (gray trend-line). The minor rise at the start of the week has turned sideways as it approached the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the Channel and the market prepares for the Nonfarm Payrolls today.
Based also on the 1D RSI structure, this pattern resembles so far the April - May Channel Down. As long as the price remained below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), it made a Lower Low on June 16 before gradually starting to recover and eventually break above the 1D MA50 and towards the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line).
As a result, we may be looking for a Lower Low near the 1W MA300 (yellow trend-line), now that the 1W MA200 (red trend-line) broke. A closing above the 1D MA50 should be taken as a bullish break-out signal on the short-term targeting the 1D MA200 and 1W MA100. Only a weekly closing above the 1W MA100 can be considered as an attempt to shift the long-term trend from bearish to bullish.
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Nasdaq reclaiming the June lows — squeeze on watchWe spoke a lot about this chart in last week's SMW video and our preferred scenario for today would have been a market puke and a VIX spike, but as we often say, the market doesn't care what we want.
We talked about the June lows as a key line in the sand going forward and the market is trying to make us believe that it wants to be above it. The action today was constructive, but now we need follow through and we need to punch through this cluster of highs/lows around 275 to really kick off the squeeze.
This remains a very tricky environment that can change on a dime, but as it stands right now, shorts need to be careful of an impending squeeze so long as we are over the June lows.