Nasdaq to find support at previous highs?NASDAQ - Intraday - We look to Buy at 10965 (stop at 10865)
Majority of the initial daily gains being overturned.
An overnight negative theme in Equities has led to a lower open this morning.
Economic figures could adversley affect the short term technical picture.
Bespoke support is located at 10965.
Although the anticipated move higher is corrective, it does offer ample risk/reward today.
Our profit targets will be 11235 and 11310
Resistance: 11235 / 11270 / 11309
Support: 11000 / 10966 / 10904
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NASDAQ 100 CFD
The bear market has not endedLast year, NQ1! dropped approximately 34%, entering a bear market territory. In 2023, we hardly expect any significant improvement in the stock market due to the persistence of bearish fundamental factors, including high inflation, the prospect of more interest rate hikes, and a global slowdown. We expect these factors to stay in place throughout the year and weigh heavily on the index. Furthermore, we expect them to lead the U.S. economy deeper into a recession. With that said, we anticipate the bear market to progress from the second stage into the third stage in 2023.
We will seek confirmation of our assessment in the upcoming earnings season and look for corporate underperformance and outlook downgrades. Additionally, we will look for a jump in corporate bankruptcies and a pick-up in unemployment. In accordance with our outlook, we maintain a bearish stance on the index and keep our price target of $10 000 for NQ1 (although we think the index has a high chance of going far below that).
Illustration 1.01
Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of NQ1! and the declining channel we showed a few months ago. Currently, NQ1! trades near its upper bound. If it manages to break above it, it will bolster the bullish case in the short term. However, a failure to do so will be bearish and hint at exhaustion.
Technical analysis
Daily time frame = Neutral
Weekly time frame = Neutral
Illustration 1.02
The image above shows the daily chart of NQ1! and simple support/resistance levels. In addition to that, two moving averages are present, acting as additional resistance levels; in case of an upward correction, we will pay close attention to these SMAs and their ability to halt the price rise.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
NASDAQ Don't look beyond this confirmed signalsNasdaq (NDX) hit last week and is so far holding the top of the 10500 - 10750 Support Zone, that has been in effect ever since the October 13 Bottom. As you see, the index has been under the Bear Market's Lower Highs trend-line since January 05, so essentially for a full year. The last rejection on it (December 13) was also made just below the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) and the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level from the previous (Lower High).
This practically keeps the index trapped and currently neutral. A confirmed buy signal would be a break above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), targeting again the 1 year Lower Highs trend-line, while a confirmed sell signal would be a break below 10500, targeting the -0.118 Fibonacci extension (10110).
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No pivot, no easing, only more rate hikes, and painYesterday, the central bank of the United States raised interest rates by 50 basis points. The FED’s chairman reiterated that the monetary policy is not accommodative enough and laid out a path for more increases, with the projection of interest rates above 5% in 2023. Additionally, Jerome Powell stated the FED would not start thinking about cutting rates until its goal of 2% inflation over time is achieved.
That is nothing new to us, as we dismissed the “pivot narrative” several times in the past months. Indeed, we stressed that the terminal rate would go much higher than initially expected and for much longer than originally thought. Unfortunately, we abandoned our price targets for QQQ one day before the meeting.
Despite that, we continue to be bearish on the stock market and maintain our price target for NQ1! at 10 000$. However, as for the QQQ, we will abstain from setting a new price target after the latest abandonment. We will update our thoughts on a new price target soon.
Illustration 1.01
Illustration 1.01 displays the daily chart of QQQ. Yellow arrows indicate fake breakouts above the resistance. Interestingly, the second breakout occurred similarly (meaning very quickly, driven by algorithms, and short-lived) to the first one, about which we expressed skepticism.
Technical analysis
Daily time frame = Neutral
Weekly time frame = Bearish
Illustration 1.02
For the past month, QQQ constituted a 5% trading range within which it has been moving. We do not expect another breakout to the upside. Contrarily, we expect a breakout below the support level, which will be very bearish.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
Nasdaq January Monthly Volatility Analyis 2023
Nasdaq January Monthly Volatility Analyis 2023
Currently the IV for Nasdaq is at 7.66%, down from 7.8% last month.
From the volatility current percentile we are located on 93th place, and based on this we can expect the monthly candle to make the next aprox movement:
Bullish : 6.55%
Bearish : 8.58%
With this in mind we have currently 80.2% that the market is going to stay within the next channel
TOP Limit: 11987
BOT Limit: 10250
If we are going to take a look into the previous monthly high and low points, currently there is a :
37.5% to hit the previous monthly high
64.4% to hit the previous monthly low
Lastly from the technical analysis point of view, currently ( going from -100 to +100)
Weekly Timeframe : -66.67% of rating moving averages is indicating BEARISH
Monthly Timeframe : -40% of rating moving averages is indicating BEARISH
2023 vision back to ATH???We have amost hit the major support level before xmas, I really do think that the end of the bears are coming and the bull run is about to takeover 2023 and get things back to normal. Who knows we shall see in the coming week how the market plays out. Personally I am long for now.
Nasdaq Long Term InvestmentNasdaq is in an open bullish channel over the next 5 and 10 years. As long as the price stays above the middle line of the channel, the positive outlook continues, but below the middle line means that the index has become too cheap. If it goes above the upper line, it indicates the overbought state of the index.
NQ1! NAS100 NASDAQ 2023 JAN 01
NQ1! NAS100 NASDAQ 2023 JAN 01
Welcome to 2023! Have an abundant and successful year!
Possible scenarios:
1) Rotation zone 12140 - 10710: Trades can be executed at boundary of range.
Although not expected to happen, still keeping the breakdown / breakout scenario for future reference:
2) Breakdown scenario if redistribution schematic is fulfilled
= Short on test of breakdown of 10890 / 10485
3) Breakout of rotation = possible long if price continues to trade
at upper boundary of rotation zone.
Weekly = Low vol down bar close off low = No Supply
H4 = Ave vol up bar close toward high = minor demand
Price reaction levels:
Short on Test and Reject | Long on Test and Accept
12987 12140 11455
10710 10485 10000
9748
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Have a profitable trading week ahead.
NAS100| USTECH |FOREX| STOCK|DECRYPTERSH i people Welcome to Team Decrypters
We are looking to Short Nas100 Around 11k on confirmation
Stoploss & Targets are mentioned in The chart
Fundamental Reason :- AS "AAPL" Loss the support on Daily it will move towards 100$ Tesla Microsoft and other Tech companies to Follow till pre covid level so we are expecting NAS 100 Also to visit pre covid levels first before any reversal or pause on selling momentum
BTC compared to the worldDo people still want to hedge using BTC rather than XAU?
This post is not intended to diss anyone, but I really need your thoughts.
Couple stats below for 26/9:
Dollar index: 114
Euro Index: 100
Bitcoin: 19,200
Gold: 1,620
EURUSD: 0.96
Nasdaq: 11,200
Today:
Dollar index: 104
Euro Index: 103
Bitcoin: 16,800
Gold: 1,780
EURUSD: 1.0630
Nasdaq: 10,980
Disregarding the big bull runs that in my opinion are heavily influenced by unlimited printing of money in the past years, when reality kicks in, BTC is starting to settle to what it's supposed to look like, which acts as a leveraged product where I expect it to drop and settle even more, and will be problematic if DXY rises again.
It is my opinion that DXY dropped $10, but BTC failed to see a rise, unlike XAU or other currencies compared to USD.
This means to me that the price of BTC has still not settled to where it's supposed to be and is headed for a drop (without getting technical about it).
What do you all think? Would love to hear from others.
Beginning of the Xmas rally for real now??Even with good data, market stayed solid today and proved that it's got what it takes to go back into the previous highs and continue with the xmas rally. It has been in the same points range for a long time now and we are looking for a change very soon.
Personally I do not think that the low level of 9k is coming anytime soon and anyone will let that happen after months of losing. Let's see what the next week is bringing us and hopefully we see the uptrend again after a long time. As always keep following me and I will update daily.
Market can change anytime but we shall see!!!
NQ short term bounce wolfe wave setup identifiedThere is a wolfe wave setup on the 78 min time frame. The projected target is calculated by extending a linear line between pivot 1 and 4 and projecting the line. This is represented as the green perforated line, as shown in the chart. The projected target is 11500 which coincides with the 6 day ma. The ETA is defined by identifying the apex of the wolfe wave and projecting a vertical line toward the green perforated projection line which is the line that extends from left to right.
NASDAQ rejected on the 1 year Resistance! How bearish is that?The Nasdaq index (NDX) rose yesterday aggressively after the lower than expected U.S. CPI but got rejected exactly on the 1 year Lower Highs trend-line (started on January 05), just below the 0.618 Fibonacci, as we showed on our analysis 2 weeks ago:
As you see, this is the exact cluster level (Lower Highs on 0.618 Fib) that the Highs of March 29 and August 16 were rejected. As a result, this doesn't alter our long-term perspective which continues to be based on break-outs. The 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) has been intact since April 05 and if the price breaks above it, we will turn bullish again, targeting the 1W MA100 (red trend-line), which rejected the August 16 High.
As long as the price is below the Lower Highs trend-line, we will be targeting the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) where a candle close below will bring more selling pressure towards the Nov - Oct Lows.
It is worth mentioning though that the 4H RSI pattern that has been consistent in the previous Lower Lows - Lower Highs sequence these past 12 months, turned upwards (blue circle) instead of downwards. This may be an early signal that there is a long-term trend shift from bearish to bullish.
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NDX / QQQ: Broader Picture for Nasdaq 100 in Six ChartsPrimary Chart: Potential for Symmetrical Pattern in Two Major Segments of Decline Shown by Roughly Parallel Price Paths in Orange
Many recent posts have contained a great deal of written analysis and explanation. This post is intended to be a chart-heavy weekend update on the NDX as reflected by its well-known ETF ( NASDAQ:QQQ ). This post will be far more concise and contain mostly charts and brief descriptions.
Supplementary Chart A. The two month downward trendline from the mid-August 2022 peaks has been broken, a shift in shorter-term trend degree. Bears don't need to be told that something has shifted in the short-term. Like other squeezes this year, this one probably hurts. But note the yellow Anchored VWAP from 2018 lows, currently at $282.45—price looks like it will confront this level this week. Price will also confront a longer-term Fibonacci level at $286. These levels could be a spot where price could stall and consolidate a bit, perhaps into the FOMC presser on November 2, 2022.
Supplementary Chart B.The weekly chart of the Nasdaq 100 shows the downward trendline very much intact throughout this entire bear market. Note the long-term VWAPs have now begun to slope downward. The long-term VWAPs are anchored to the Covid 2020 low and the December 2018 low. Price will confront the 2018 VWAP again in the coming days. The first test of that VWAP was repelled this past week after FAANG earnings largely missed (except for AAPL). The Covid 2020 VWAP approximately coincides with the down trendline from the all-time high.
Supplementary Chart C. The next chart zooms in a bit on the December 2018 VWAP. This VWAP aligns quite well with the .382 retracement of the major decline from August 16 to October 13, 2022. This area of confluence is $282.32, and price may consolidate or whipsaw around this level before continuing in whatever direction it chooses after FOMC, though the rally appears as if it may have a bit more steam. Unless the Fed presser completely squishes the rally (a distinct possibility), a reasonable target is the .50 retracement at $291.60, but only if this .382 level and 2018 VWAP at $282 can be relcaimed.
Supplementary Chart D. A derivative of the Bollinger Bands, the %B indicator distinctly shows a W-bottom pattern. As price made lower lows in October 2022, the relative lows were higher than September 2022 lows (relative means in terms of standard deviation from a mean).
Supplementary Chart E. Weekly RSI shows a major positive divergence (also known as a bullish divergence). This has not yet been conrfirmed. Sometimes, weekly divergences can take quite a will to take effect—notice that the weekly negative divergences—starting with the RSI peak in late 2019) took about 2 years to result in a major bear market. In other words, even though there were negative divergences on weekly RSI, higher highs continued in the index until late 2021 where the final negative divergence was formed. This means don't front run a weekly RSI negative divergence, but keep it in mind, especially when they begin to add up.
Analysis and Discussion. Short-term trends have clearly shifted, but longer-term downtrends remain intact with the bearish structure unaffected by the short-term noise. But as stated in my recent SPY analysis, don't fight the rally. Rallies are an inevitable part of downtrends, which by definition include lower *highs* and lower lows. There are reasons for a multi-week rally, though it won't be in a straight line. Plenty of resistance lies overhead, however. And the longer-term downtrend remains intact on logarithmic and linear charts. Maybe the Nasdaq 100 makes new lows next year in the first half of 2023.
One possibility, however, is that the two major segments of this decline are roughly parallel. See the orange price paths on the Primary Chart, the first one of which follows price, and the second one of which follows price and then projects the hypothetical path that would be parallel to the first path.
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Author's Comment: Thank you for reviewing this post and considering its charts and analysis. The author welcomes comments, discussion and debate (respectfully presented) in the comment section. Shared charts are especially helpful to support any opposing or alternative view. This article is intended to present an unbiased, technical view of the security or tradable risk asset discussed.
Please note further that this technical-analysis viewpoint is short-term in nature. This is not a trade recommendation but a technical-analysis overview and commentary with levels to watch for the near term. This technical-analysis viewpoint could change at a moment's notice should price move beyond a level of invalidation. Further, proper risk-management techniques are vital to trading success. And countertrend or mean-reversion trading, e.g., trading a rally in a bear market, is lower probability and is tricky and challenging even for the most experienced traders.
DISCLAIMER: This post contains commentary published solely for educational and informational purposes. This post's content (and any content available through links in this post) and its views do not constitute financial advice or an investment or trading recommendation, and they do not account for readers' personal financial circumstances, or their investing or trading objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. Readers should perform their own due diligence, and consult a qualified financial adviser or other investment / financial professional before entering any trade, investment or other transaction.
Microsoft Corp. Goes Bullish? ... The New World Order!You know how you get to see all the headlines when browsing through TradingView's homepage, impossible to avoid.
We love it because it gives me so many ideas...
"Microsoft Better Than Hot Bread".
"Microsoft Develops New Air Conditioner That Will Override The Fed".
"Microsoft Comes Up With Better Than Bacon".
Etc.
It is very misleading, that's our point.
Whenever the market is about to crash, all the news website start publishing bullish headlines.
Whenever the market is about to rise, all the news website start publishing bearish headlines.
Today we have so many bullish headlines for the stock market, the SPX, etc.
See what happens in a few days.
Microsoft Crop. (MSFT) uptrend is ending after 13 years.
This can turn into a simple, normal, classic correction or maybe it can get really bad.
We are looking at the monthly timeframe and MSFT is still trading below EMA10. Bearish.
Clear downtrend since November 2021. Bearish.
Decreasing volume. Bearish.
What an incredible ride... Can't wait to see how it will all develop...
Sam-FTX just got arrested in Bahamas...
Out of crisis comes opportunity.
Once we hit rock bottom, the only place left to go is up.
It is the end of an era.
The birth of a new order.
Order out of chaos.
A New World Order?
Namaste.
NDX Daily Bearish SignalsWe have a downtrend within a downtrend, the inception of bearish signals.
The NDX printed a shooting star candlestick yesterday as a rejection from EMA10.
The RSI has gone bearish and the QStick indicator as well.
The feeling is that it should be mild yet, we are seeing a strong crash ahead.
Maybe even a 10 percent drop in a matter of days.
Just hoping that we are wrong.
Namaste.