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SPX | The cake is a lieThis is not the 2008 Recession. This is deception. This is the Recession nobody remembers. SPX by itself doesn't show the entire truth. The monster of QE clouds your vision, clouds your judgement. It's strength, it's pressure pushes everything upwards so much. Too much... Until you are in a delusion. The 2020 Black Swan was not black. He was in the shadows. One of the lights that can help you see him is the SPX*US10Y chart. In the "Related Ideas" there is the link to the inventor of the chart. This is the 2020 Black Swan we all witnessed. This is the 2018 Recession that really happened. For reference, this is the modified chart from 2008. And the chart from 2022. Pattern taken from 2008 and fits like a glove. We are also in UTAD, in a long-term Wyckoff Distribution. Is it a conspiracy theory? It could be. The easiest method of manipulating the economy is with bonds. They make them and they define the base yield. So in theory and in practice, they can affect the economy any way they want. In short, they could in theory hide a recession in an ocean of money, in the era of information and QE. They are after your money. They will do anything to take them. Watch out. Who knows what trap they will set up now... Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. -Father Grigori
SP:SPX
by akikostas
30
SPX | Did you win?Ah the beauty of Fibonacci... when after a painful recession for equities, we reach the golden ratio alive and well. The satisfaction!!! Now we can go all-in equities! Perhaps you are one of the lucky ones who bought the October bottom, then congrats to you! How much was your profit really? After all, this was a peculiar year... Yields massively increasing, equities dropping. It is like a dead end, it feels like a maze... The main chart does show a significant recession... But we have passed it! Some charts suggest that we had no recession this year... Other charts suggest the complete opposite! Note that these are my charts. I was the contradictory being... Look at what the last chart means: LQD is the investment-grade ETF. On the second chart it is compared with SPX/(modified-yields) and on the third with SPX/(modified-yields*PPIACO). The correlation is as good as it can get... This is a mess... what can we infer from all of these charts? Something fundamental can help us clear the picture. We can differentiate between 4 distinct periods of the economic cycle. A. Equities increase while yields decrease (bonds increase) This is the QE model, which followed us for many years. During this period, the only winner is the one who had only stocks in the beginning. Investing everything in the stock market is your best bet. B. Equities increase while yields increase This is the scenario when the economy is at it's best. During this period, everyone wins. Both the one who has stocks and the one who is selling/lending cash (sitting on cash) win. Any kind of investment is good in this period! C. Equities decrease while yields decrease This is the nightmare of the wealthy ones, and this period that rarely comes. It happened during the 1929, the 2000 and the 2008 recessions. During this period, you win if you have nothing invested, and without any money. Borrowing money to buy stocks is the best plan. D. Equities decrease while yields increase Sound familiar? This is 2022 in a nutshell. During this period, I hate to disappoint you, the only one who wins is the one who has a lot of money. Sitting on cash and lending it is your only option. The immense amount of money that the US printed, is now sitting in the hands of few. If you traded for profit, then you are probably at (or near) net-zero. In 2022, you won if you sat in cash. We have gone full circle, from advising into sitting in cash, to advising into selling, to buying, and back to the beginning. Finance is complex... To conclude, my head is spinning... I have no idea what all of this will lead to. It is as if we are in a lose-lose scenario. Invest in bonds? But is the US going to be able to pay them out, after decades of free money? And with so much money in circulation, how many bonds are being purchased at these "extortionate" rates? How in the world will the US be able to pay out so much? Invest in equities? They look like they will face years of stagnation. The only thing that smells lately is the smell of war, the smell of "I have nothing to lose". The only thing to gain now is resources. Commodities are bull flagging against everything. More specifically, the combination between the cost of commodities and the cost of their production added together. This makes me believe that a small increase in production cost will lead to multiplicative increase in the final product value. This is a recipe for hyperinflation. And the big profit is if you own the land the resources are produced. (Ukraine for wheat, Taiwan for silicone, etc...). Everyone is willing to fight for these lands... I am adding this chart for the picture on the left. The CEO of Bank Of America is preparing for US bankruptcy. Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. -Father Grigori
SP:SPX
by akikostas
4
Uncontrollable Inflation?Will inflation get under control? This is a question that spins on my mind. This chart clears the picture. On the top of the equation we have "long-term inflation", calculated by GOLD*PPIACO On the bottom we have the true equity value, calculated by modified-yields*SPX modified-yields = US10Y+1+1/US10Y. It follows the standard US10Y chart. This chart tells us something alarming, that no matter the politics, we are inside a massive bull-flag. This chart below, measures the long-term inflation compared to total-money-earned-from-bonds. Another golden bull-flag appears, which found support on the 1980 peak. Commodities could over-perform any attempt we have at stopping the inflationary pressures. Any upwards move on yields, will have multiplicative increase in commodity cost. Take a look at SPY_Master's ideas regarding bull-flags. He is the inspiration of the GOLD*PPIACO chart. He basically used GOLD*DBC as a good measure of inflation. I replaced DBC with PPIACO for longer-term analysis. Now I will explain how and why these charts work. On the top we have GOLD*PPIACO. Gold is measured in dollars, while PPIACO not exactly... So on the numerator there is only one occurence of dollar value. M2SL moves exponentially compared to PPIACO. So PPIACO by itself doesn't get inflated by money printing. On the denominator, on the one chart we have (mod-yields)*SPX, which is again measured in dollars, but SPX is transformed for the "true" value of dollar. I thank SPY_Master once again for the inspiration. He invented the SPX/(1/US10Y) = SPX*US10Y chart. On the other chart we basically have the total money made from bonds. Total money printed is transformed for their cost. In reality this denominator measures the true value of all money printed. So it is once again normalized. Finally, look at this chart which compares equities with long-term inflation. Any upwards move on equities, will have multiplicative increase in commodity cost. Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. -Father Grigori PS. I am not a trader, these charts are not "tradeable". In fact, they could give someone second thoughts on investing. I don't have second thoughts on investing. These charts help us understand that sometimes, things are not as straightforward as we would hope. PS2. To anyone who hasn't played Half-Life 2, Father Grigori is the guardian of a city called Ravenholm. We don't go there anymore. PS3. My name implies that I am a priest of sorts, I unofficially could be one. Officially, I am not a priest. I am in love with how nature (and God) shows up in the most amazing of places. These golden flags are not random... Nothing is random. For example, look at this incredibly accurate chart. PS4. Please don't fill this comment section with arguments about faith and God, if you believe in one (or many) or if you don't believe in one (or many). These kinds of conversations tend to go up in flames. Please keep the peace.
TVC:GOLD
by akikostas
13
TESLA $TSLA - Feb. 13th, 2023Tesla $TSLA NASDAQ $NDQ $NDX US100 BUY/LONG ZONE (GREEN): $208.41 - $234.10 DO NOT TRADE/DNT ZONE (WHITE): $187.63 - $208.41 SELL/SHORT ZONE (RED): $113.06 - $187.63 Weekly zone from Mon. May10th, 2021 drawn to Tue. Feb. 21st, 2023. Multiple touches on zone on weekly chart occurring on weeks of: Monday May 24, 2021, Tuesday June 01, 2021, Monday June 21, 2021, Tuesday July 06, 2021 through Monday July 26, 2021, Monday August 16, 2021, and then not again until Monday May 16, 2022, Monday May 23, 2022, Monday June 13, 2022, Tuesday July 05, 2022, Monday October 10,2022 through Monday October 24, 2022, and lastly Monday February 06, 2023 Weekly level for current structural low at $113.06 (weeks of Tuesday December 27, 2022 through Tuesday January 03, 2023). Zone drawn on 4H - Prices $178.07 - $187.63 Bottom zone level comes from bearish candle open on Monday January 23, 2023 09:30 ($178.07). Top zone level comes from bullish long-legged doji candle close on Monday February 13, 2023 09:30 ($187.63). Daily structural level (price $159.64) from bearish candle open on Friday December 16, 2022, confirmed on Thursday January 26, 2023 (bullish daily long-legged doji). The next zone to look at in the event of a breakout is $234.10 (bottom level) - $238.56 (top level). SIDE NOTE: If NASDAQ closes green this week it will be the second bullish indicator after the four consecutive candles (turned into five consecutive after bullish mark) and weekly structure break from weeks of Tuesday January 03, 2023 through Monday January 23, 2023. Blue chartings are from weekly timeframe and above. Yellow chartings are from daily timeframes and below. Technical analysis only, does not factor in real world events or fundamentals. This is what I would personally look at before entering trades, everything is subject to change on a daily basis and as I analyze different timeframes and ideas. ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY, NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE!
NASDAQ:TSLA
by TonyAiello
1
SPX | The RSI WarningRelative Strength Index, is one of the most famous indicators. If analyzed correctly it can show us warnings very early on. Look at this period between 2010-2014 for USOIL Price is supported by a very wide ribbon, while RSI is under significant resistance. When we are talking about such wide timeframes, RSI action is VERY important. One could say that RSI analysis is more important than price analysis. On to the protagonist, SPX... While price is under WIDE support, RSI shows the oncoming weakness. After the recession, this is the confirmation that we reached a bottom. Onto todays outlook: Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. -Father Grigori
SP:SPX
by akikostas
4
SPX | What goes up......must come down. Conservation of Energy We all know QE... The god-given gift which made everyone rich! Well, not everyone... Consumers sure took a hit. But who cares about them? We want corporations rich! And they got rich . And boy some of them did go rich... That's the beauty of the American Dream! Sure we were cheating... ...but look at all this money we made! Violets are green, dollars are green, stocks are green, everything is green! And stocks are everything! (This chart shows the stock market "dominance". How much of the wealth one can have is inside the stock market.) And now everything is inside crypto. We are all-in. In a Poker Game where The House always wins. After all that fun party, it is time for the bill, not clinton bill, not treasury bill, not dollar bill. It is time for debt to get paid. As always, nature will do it's trick... Nature seeks equilibrium. Entropy. When we cheat and inflate, it comes and deflates. Nature is a closed circuit. When some deflate, others inflate. And the cycle goes on... Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. -Father Grigori
SP:SPX
by akikostas
3
The Good, the Bad and the Ugly YieldsI have this question... Why are high yields bad? What is bad? We are in a period of big changes. There are lot's of balances changing, one of them is money. We have just passed (?) the biggest monetary experiment ever (QE) and we are about to enter the successor to that experiment, digital money. Digital money conveniently came about just at the time when hyperinflation became an expected reality. If you talked about hyperinflation 4 years ago, you were crazy, now it is expected (and perhaps actually coming). ... Instinct tells us that the unknown is a threat, rather than an opportunity. Instinct slyly and covertly compels us away from change and progress. ... -Dr. Breen In the center of the stages is the paradigm shift in yields. After decades of consistently lower yields, now we are expecting consistently higher ones. Many (including me) have prejudged themselves into be lie ving that high yields are inherently bad. I cannot conclude into what high yields are bad at. The title suggests that they have 3 faces, good bad and ugly. I can conclude that now, like always throughout history, we are rolling in a cycle. Some things have changed in unpredictable ways. This unorthodox chart shows us that this year, we have lived through something unique. Perhaps this will be the way things move forward. From the charts above I have tried hard to conclude into something. The only thing I have learned is the following: Bonds are the new equities. In QE world, lower yields made more money. How? Money printing and borrowing needs low yields for it to be popular. Immense liquidity bubbled everything and productivity skyrocketed. QE is the fuel of globalism. Equities paid out dividends, so higher equities led to even more money. In QT world, higher yields make more money. How? Money burning and lending needs high yields for it to be profitable. Money makes more money, and every day it makes even more money. Commodity producers (GOLD*PPIACO as an example) and wealthy individuals/corporations/nations can enjoy this new era. QT is the fuel of war. Everything is precious and everyone fights for it. In a globalized world, you could make money by being an intermediate entity. Now to make money you must actually own the resources and money. Rich get richer, and poor get poorer. This is the purchasing power of the consumer dollar. Poor get poorer... Poor get poorer when rich get richer. These charts above are simple to understand and analyze. Down below I will add some of my favorite charts. These charts calculate the value of commodities compared to equities or money supply. Commodity production bull-flags against equities. Commodity production bull-flags against money supply itself. The bull flag is against yields as well. True Production Cost (PPIACO*yields) is bull-flagging (?) PPIACO is used as a historical alternative to USOIL. For some reason, we cannot perform old historical calculations using oil. They show that the commodities prove a big motive for everyone. Especially to those who seek war. Would anyone in their clear mind expect WWIII to be talked about in the 2020s? With the knowledge we have collected throughout all these years, this would be out of the question! Yet, here we are, casually talking about it. Again, changes are happening but we are stuck in a cycle. All we can do about it is to understand where we are, and not constantly deceive ourselves and others into thinking otherwise. So there is a clear benefit into just realizing where we are, it is not financial profit, it is speaking truth. Conclusion? This is a zero-sum game for consumers. Also, with bonds we are committing hubris. Bonds is a mechanism that helps money itself make more money. Have you heard about the Ancient Greeks? They talked about the fact that when money makes money, it is Hubris (something like sin, only worse). Equities gave more output than there was input, if someone includes long-term dividends. You working and making money is not Hubris (according to Ancient Greeks). Making a system which enables money to make money, then you commit Hubris. Consistently higher yields will help money make even more money. Equities are facing Nemesis (compared to bonds). Bonds have just now committed Hubris. There may be many years until they face Nemesis as well. Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. -Father Grigori PS. This movie "good bad ugly" was released in 1966, a period financially similar to the one we live now.
TVC:US10Y
by akikostas
2
NASADQ trend lines and channelsAnother of my big picture looks at the NASDAQ. You can see that we had a strong rally off the bottom of the blue channel, and right now it is around the middle of the channel. In the big picture though, we have barely come down out of the massive QE and low interest rate bubble created after the financial crisis. I find it hard to get too into this rally, we saw Meta rally 20% even with its latest financial report show something like $4 Billion in losses, but some vague promises about "Year of Efficiency". That tells me that markets are very FOMO right now after a really hard year and are looking for anything to recapture the bubble of 2021. Labor reports continue to be strong, which seems to be feeding the rally, especially so after the Fed's super dovish 0.25% hike and "disinflation" nonsense. The break above the 200 day SMA and crossing of the 20 and 200 day are also really bullish signs. That said, pick your favorite quote about the market: 1) Markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent or 2) Bull markets climb a wall of worry. Good luck. Daily
TVC:NDQ
by Dr_Roboto
MARKETS VERY BULLISH'THE DISINFLATIONARY PROCESS HAS STARTED' - Jerome Powell on 1-2-2023 at the FOMC Meeting These are the wise words of Jerome Powell from the FOMC meeting yesterday. After this meeting markets pumped worldwide as a confirmation of the bullcase. S&P500 Yesterday we closed at a big resistance point. We need a close above and confirmation. Next Target on SPX = 4330 VIX VIX is cracking through support and likely going to see new lows on the larger timeframe. DXY Also DXY cracked bigtime after the meeting. Now at 100 points. My target for DXY is 92. Big rally for equities. US10Y Bonds 10Y also at 3.41% A 3% decline on the charts. Approaching Daily 200 MA. My expectations is that we're going to crack through it after good results from the big companies later today AMAZON & APPLE
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by kadirski
The QE(xperience)Quantitative Easing, a fancy way of describing a bubble, the easy way out. QE Alpha During QE Alpha, speculation lead to a massive bubble, and a painful burst. Technicals: A Fibonacci Retracement shows that price followed closely it's levels. QE Beta During QE Beta, after stabilizing from the Great Depression, and after the end of WW2, economy rose steadily. US being one of the winners of WW2 and with the Marshall Plan deal, had a big advantage compared to the rest of the world. Technicals: The 1.618 retracement proves a significant resistance from above, which behaved as the ceiling for the Great Stagflation period of 1960s. Price reached an indecision where price couldn't penetrate the 1.618 retracement, but didn't want to fall below the 1929 high. A golden bull-flag was created, which escaped to the upside in 1982. QE 1.0 After severe stagflation, a new era of progressively lower yields led to the creation of the mechanism for QE1. It's fuel ended in 2000, and for a decade, the economy had big trouble going forward. It wasn't until the GFC when the foundation was set for the birth of QE2. Technicals: We have reached the 3rd harmonic and this proves big resistance for price. During this time, a harmonic bull-flag shaped. QE 2.0 The QExperience, which until now was unknown and unnamed, had now a name. And we have lived with it until 2021. Derivatives came about and inflated what is left to inflate. Since day 1 of 2022 we are outside it's trend. Technicals: Retracements drawn using the Great Depression peaks/bottoms constitute significant support/resistance levels. Conclusion: This SPX modificator makes historical analysis of SPX more mathematically accurate and clearer to see/analyze. A new era of increasing yields leads to multiplicative problems in the QE machine. Welcome to the QT era. We are already in it, for the past year, we hope you enjoy your stay! Look at the GFC intervention. The modified SPX chart depends on yields. More about it on this chaotic, full-of-mistakes idea. Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. -Father Grigori
SP:SPX
by akikostas
13
Artificial LifeWe live artificially, in a virtual world. We began this experiment when from actual currency we went to fiat. Money printing is not that simple. A debt based economy is fueled not only by money printing but also by money creation. Let's consider this thought experiment: We have three protagonists, Central Bank (CB), Private Bank (PB), and Human (HS) CB decides that she wants to run the economy, and prints $100. She creates the debt as well, so all is good. CB lends that money to PB and demands some profit (Y) which could be the current US10Y. The Private Bank then, to profit off of the loan, lends some money to a human. Let's pretend that the loan the human gets is ($100+Y). On top of that there will be another tariff that will go towards the PB, let's say again Y. From that simplified transaction, the PB makes more profit than the loan, because she lended some funds from their reserves. So the PB will earn from the human 100+Y*(100+Y) and will pay back to the CB 100+Y. Now remember, the only money in existence is the $100 that the CB made. So technically, nobody can fully pay out their obligation. Everyone is in debt and technically everyone is bankrupt from Day 1. To cover the increasing needs of humans for loans, the PB needs more money, and so lends from the CB. The second time around, the PB borrows $100+y So what the CB does is print some more money, every day we pay out our old obligations and we create more. That story you might already know. I added it because I wanted to make some calculations on it. For us to make sense of it all, we try to find out how many obligations were created from thin air. Scenario 1 If everyone is paid off, including the CB, the extra obligations are y^2+2*y. Now let's consider the percentage we gained from all of this. From a single "y" obligation, we created y^2+2*y obligations. Therefore the rate of change is (final value - initial value)/(initial value). Rate of Change = ROC = y+1 And if we plot SPX/ROC = SPX/(US10Y+1) Scenario 2 Everyone is paid off, except the Central Bank. While this might not be 100% feasible, I believe that it ends up describing much clearer today's life. Now the extra obligations (extra money) in circulation are y^2+2*y+1 And the rate of change from the single "y" obligation is: ROC = y+1+1/y And this is the plot we are witnessing now. (SPX/ROC) Conclusion @SPY_Master invented this chart SPX/(1/US10Y), linked below. Which is basically a ROC of 1/y. So the new ROC comes to fulfill the one before it, and give it a more "mathematically accurate" representation. Where does this leave us? This chart stopped on the 4th retracement. RSI is looking something more beyond precarious. It is fearful. This is another chart on how price moved the last 20 years. I will comment later on some more charts. For now, I will let the indicators speak of themselves. Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. -Father Grigori
SP:SPX
by akikostas
8
Weapons of Mass Destruction"Derivatives are weapons of mass destruction" - Warren Buffett This chart calculates the gaps we have left behind. All because of massive interday futures trading. A while ago, we didn't have that many derivatives. Interday trading had very little effect. In an overleveraged economy, just how much of current prices are based on actual growth? Indices are hitting new highs, getting inflated from more and more derivative trading and leverage. Just how much of what we see is a bubble? Judging by this chart, we should go back to pre-2015 levels... Trade lightly , for this is hallowed ground. - Wall Street Grigori
DJ:DJI
by akikostas
7
Markets want their equities back.The market is longing equities, they miss them so much... Perhaps there are traders out there who actually long equities right now. And maybe they have their reasons... Yields are showing the first signs of exhaustion. Their chart by itself confirms it. In the main chart above, we see support from the 200EMA (from 2M chart like before) RSI went oversold (penetrated it's ATR channel to the downside) and is now back inside it. This is bullish. This year stochastics were absolutely glued together, it doesn't get any tighter. Now they are ready for an upwards swing. But wait. Not all is good. The "true" SPX chart (SPX*US10Y) is showing it's first signs of weakness. So we have reached the point of "diminishing returns". Any increase in equities is not providing wealth. Like before, RSI, Stochastics and KC don't help. SPX is showing signs of strength for the following months. While I expect a degree of weakness in equities, not all hope is lost. In the meantime, I expect horizontal movement for equities, and some probable growth. Beware, for the cake is still a lie. A couple of extra charts: The chart I added above, the point we missed the trendline was in December 2018. In December of 2018 was the time when Put/Call ratio and VIX took separate ways. And what did equities do after this point in time? PS. With all that conspiracy, I wander why I don't wear a tinfoil hat... yet. Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. - Father Grigori
SP:SPX
by akikostas
1
NASDAQ/US100/NDQ AnalyseAfter its intensive correction to around 11700, the Nasdaq followed a heavy rejection. And in the second attempt, it continued its downward trend by hitting the trend line and confirming it. Currently, due to the preservation of the four-hour trend line and the signs of the end of the price correction in the daily chart, we can have a more bearish view about this market. . Also, by analyzing the fundamental data from the United States, we can expect an increase of 1.5 percentage points in the interest rate by the end of the year, in which case stocks and indices, especially the Nasdaq, will remain in their downward trend and touch new lows with high probability. This analysis is in no way investment or trading advice.
EASYMARKETS:NDQUSDShort
by Dalltrade
2
AAPL (Apple Inc)/short term and longer term AnalyzeAfter the short leg that it had in the last week towards the supply areas in the range of $157, Apple shares were accompanied by heavy selling in several consecutive days. Yesterday, after the publication of the statement of the Federal Reserve and during Mr. Powell's speech, there was heavy selling pressure. The overall structure of the chart is currently bearish, and by confirming the head and shoulder chart pattern that is forming in the 4-hour time frame, we can set short-term, medium-term and long-term price targets for this stock, respectively, as we have specified. This analysis is not a trading recommendation at all and is only a personal opinion.
NASDAQ:AAPLShort
by Dalltrade
1
NASDAQ bottomed or fall 20% by March?Here is my chart combining channels, trend lines, and waves. You can see that the NASDAQ has been fighting to stay inside the blue channel since mid-October, but has been trapped under the black channel. If it is going to hold, then this would be a good place. That would keep the blue channel bull rally intact. However, this week's rejection off the top of the channel is not a great sign. There is still a good possibility that we still need to complete the wave C of the larger ABC correction before this is over. Right now, Wave C stands at a 0.618 fib extension of Wave A which is pretty small. If it goes lower, then a bounce and support at 0.786 seems logical, which is around the peak before the COVID crash. That could be a good long entry. I would not rule out something closer to the 1.0 level before we are done. If that does come to be, then that takes us down to the red trend line created off the bottoms of the 2018 and 2020 corrections. That is the 9000 range (could overshoot down to 8700) and would be a great place for a big long entry. Anything lower than that, and, well, lets not think about.
U
by Dr_Roboto
NDQ US 100 INDEX: MARKET MAKERS MAGIC??DESCRIPTION: In the chart above I have provided a MACRO analysis of NDQ that is in fact showing strong signs of PENDING CAPITULATION but I will leave the rest to INDIVIDUAL INTERPRETATION. POINTS: 1. DEVIATION OF 1,000 POINTS is where NDQ usually finds appropriate CONSOLIDATION to then draw out SUPPLY & DEMAND POCKETS. 2. RSI is DANGEROUSLY OVER EXTENDED and looks ready for some PULLBACK. 3. MACD is CONSOLIDATING and moving closer to its MEDIAN SIGNALING A BIG MOVE IS ON THE WAY. *IMPORTANT (FOOD FOR THOUGHT): ALL SIGNS ARE BEARISH BUT IS THAT WHAT THE MARKET MAKERS WANT US TO THINK? TO MANY PEOPLE ARE BEARISH AND PLACING MONEY ON PUTS. JUST DOUGHT MARKET MAKERS WOULD ALLOW FOR EVERYONES CONTRACTS TO EXPIRE IN THE MONEY. SCENARIO #1: A BULLISH scenario would require a hold of 11,000 POINTS followed by SIDEWAYS MOVEMENT or a BREAK of TREND. SCENARIO #2: A BEARISH scenario would require a lose of 11,000 POINTS followed by an AGGRESSIVE BREAK of TREND to the DOWNSIDE. FULL CHART LINK: www.tradingview.com TVC:NDQ
TVC:NDQShort
by DGSTBROKERACC
Peak Equities?Happy Dump Year! What a shocking year... equities dropping, bond market failing and energy skyrocketing. Almost a perfect storm ain't it? But something ain't right... Have we passed the dump year or are we just started? Which number will we be talking about in the future, 22 or 23? And another question... have equities peaked? For the past year, bonds have been outperforming equities. But equities have been holding relatively strong despite the monumental increase in yields. Now we might have reached the point of diminishing returns. Every move we make is beginning to turn up against us. The similarity to the Great Depression is stunning. Stochastics don't help the situation much. Even if a total crash does not occur, the product looks fated to move horizontally. The cover chart pinpoints us on a fib retracement, with much resistance above. The drawn levels were respected throughout the last 15 years. Other equity comparisons follow suit... The charts above attempt to objectively calculate the price of equities compared to the cost of money. This chart below attempts to calculate the excess performance SPX has, compared to the performance of an investment in bonds. It is further modified by PPIACO, the producer price cost. Printed on the chart are some beautiful bull flags, and some very historically-important retracements. Equities will have much trouble gaining traction compared to bonds. This year, the relative performance of equities compared to bonds, showed a 60% drop. So 2022 was definitely a Dump Year. This is massive of a figure for the equity market, measured as relative performance. Also the bond market has suffered a lot this year. If equities have already sustained a massive hit compared to bonds, who will be the next to take the dive? Since their product (their cumulative profit) has just now showed signs of stagnation. Will equities drop again or bonds, or both? It smells like 2023 will have some sort of dump... An analysis of equity mutual funds compared to bond-focused mutual funds could have a lot to say... I leave it as an exercise for the TradingView community. Feel free to tag me if you analyze anything regarding it! PS. Happy Dump Days as of now (The peak of the product chart), for the main indices are: DJI: Nov. 8, 2022 SPX: Nov. 10, 2022 NDQ: Oct. 25, 2022 Take a look at price action of the indices after that day if you are curious on how real prices translated from that day onwards. Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. -Father Grigori
TVC:DJI
by akikostas
9
The NASDAQ FractalWhile we are talking about the Bitcoin fractal / logistic curve, I decided to analyze the second bubbly candidate, NDQ/NDX. The .com bubble was fast and extensive, so in retrospect it is easy to see that it was a big bubble. The 2008-2021 big-tech mania may not be apparent but if we just rescale the chart on the price axis (not date) we see that the 1994-2000 part is highly correlated to the 2015-2021 price action. This is the bubble part of the two growths. The overlapping part is quite satisfactory in the way it moves together. Considering the simplistic method of analysis I did. We should scale things down since growth follows a fibonacci movement, not a linear one. Nature forces each growth to be some golden ratio smaller than the previous one. Either we like it or not... I drew a retracement from the 2000 peak to the 1994 beginning, and moved it to 2015 as a start. The bubble part of the 2015-2021 growth is significantly lower when compared to the 1994-2000 growth. Do note that in both instances a 6 year period is analyzed. The decreased rate of change is apparent. There are numerous comparisons one can make. Again retracement is copied and moved, not rescaled in any way. I always tried to find a peak in NDQ. It wasn't until I tried fitting the .com bubble to the today's bubble that everything made sense. The chart got completed on it's own. A theoretical peak in NDQ will be on the 1.618 ratio of the .com bubble. It is quite far from here but with this candle pattern it makes sense. I have basically copied the 1985-2022 period and pasted on 2006. As I said before, the chart is rescaled only on price. And would you like to know how much I ended up scaling the chart? By a factor of .618 Conclusion: NASDAQ has it in it's DNA. Periods of incredible gains and periods of painful losses. This year it significantly underperformed the other main indices. For the near future, with so many new technologies coming, it wouldn't be extreme to witness another bubble after a painful drop. We are dependent on technology, so it's sector will gain. Final note: Bubbles and their patterns can be incredible sometimes. 80 years apart, back then with pen and paper, in 2000 on computer screens. Yet the bubble peak is identical. PS. It appears from the chart, in pure speculation that sometime in the future we will violate this important trendline. Perhaps in 2040's robots will overtake the world and we will abolish technology once and for all. Curiously, a while back I listened to a song titled 2042 by Active Member. It's in Greek so don't bother looking for it if you don't understand the language. Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. -Father Grigori
NASDAQ:NDX
by akikostas
3