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NDQ

Russel 2000 vs Nasdaq, important momentThis is essentially a momentum play where we're seeking a breakout in the Russell 2000 (RUT) compared to the Nasdaq, signifying relative overperformance and potentially paving the way for new highs on the S&P 500 (SPX). It's important to note that a rejection at this juncture would indicate a bearish signal. However, from a pattern probability perspective, the outlook appears bullish. Even though we're currently at all-time high (ATH) levels, this aligns with historical trends from the year 2000, and the prevailing inflationary period suggests the possibility of reaching even higher highs in the future, unless we breakout on the yield curve inversion and have the bear steepener event (see my other charts) that could very well align with the resistance we have here and failing a monthly breakout we can experience a bull trap. Only a monthly close above is a strong buy signal.
TVC:NDQ
by EdwinPus
2
NDQ | Hidden in plain sight...This is a period of recession, a period when hands change. Last becomes first and first becomes last. Curiously, if you mix and match the main indices, you will get bored of the same shape appearing over and over again. They all appear in the same period. This stuff is hidden in plain sight... NDQ vs DJI SPX vs NYA NDQ vs RUI RUI vs NYA RUA vs DJI This one is full of small HnS. A little rough but okay. And an extra speculation: DJI vs SPX Question: Where do all these HnS lead to? Who is the final recipient? Since all these charts are comparative to one another. Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. -Father Grigori
TVC:NDQ
by akikostas
6
NASDAQ Heading Lower For Longer (1D)NASDAQ Daily Price Chart We have quite a bit going on here so, pitter patter lets get at 'er. First, we have our second fake out (Highlighted) on the major trend line (Yellow Solid) which is accompanied by less buying volume than the first. EMA's have not crossed yet however we have a solid close below the 50-day and a legit cross of the 12-day and 26-day indicating a change in direction. We're getting the bounce we thought we might (Teal Dotted), which was outlined in the Weekly analysis that will be linked below, and should max out at the top teal dotted line if it pushes past the EMAs; This will be dependent on Nvidia earnings since it's so heavily weighted on the Index. After it begins to come down the first target of support (Green Box) aligns with the 200-day EMA, so that's definitely in play and will most likely see a decent bounce from there. Relative Strength Indicator Most notable here is the bearish divergence (Aqua Solid) that played out in the previous months and lead to a break in the major trend line. This lead to a small retest and the beginning of a bounce on the line of support (Teal Dotted). From here we likely see a retest of the 50 level to accompany the bounce and a rejection to downside to confirm our analysis. On Balance Volume Similarly to the RSI there was also bearish divergence that played out from previous months that lead to change in the direction of the OBV. The major level of support, or midpoint of the double top, was broken and confirmed the change in direction; This lead to the major trend line on this indicator also snapping. Most recently we've seen the beginning of a bounce on a line of support, which will most likely lead to a retest of the major trend line before resuming it's downward movement. Our target here aligns with another major trend line (Faded Yellow Solid) and the target support (Green Box). TLDR; Bro u pittur pattured moar thn u gat @ hur. Yea, well, we're in the business of pittering and the pattering is good. Price action is showing weakness and we're beginning get a small bounce at the second fake out break out of the major trend line; NVDA earnings will determine the height of it. The 12-day / 26-day EMA's actually crossed this time and there's been a solid close below the 50-day. RSI and OBV both show bearish divergences that have played out and confirmed the change in direction; both indicators are also showing a bounce at outlined supports before downward momentum resumes. Current targets are the green boxes. What Seems Legit? We bounce from excitement into Nvidia earnings; This seems to big one of the largest earnings calls in awhile, so you know big brain bets have already been placed, no one is showing up fashionably late for this. Earnings come out and the market either goes nuts, or has lackluster performance (our guess) into Friday where our overlords seal the deal for lower price movement. Chart Key Yellow Solid = Major Trend Line Red Solid = Major Support Aqua Solid = Divergences Teal Dotted = Support / Bounce Area Red Box = Major Resistance Green Boxes = Supports / Target Areas
NASDAQ:NDXShort
by Seems_Legit_Research
Find The Swan!Nobody was prepared the time when the 2020 Black Swan came. But the location of the Swan is very interesting: First, SPX: Not very interesting of a spot... In the middle of nowhere really. Now, DJI/M2SL There has been an impenetrable ceiling for more than 10 years. We almost hit it a third time since 2008, and then the crash came. Long-term Inflation (Gold*PPIACO) divided by money earned from bonds (modified-yields*M2SL) Note that this chart above does not include equities. DJI/(modified-yields) This chart above measures the rate equities become worthy compared to the cost of money. In a sense, as the chart increases, equities take more of the form of "gold" compared to bonds. More about this in the following idea. These charts above show that the Swan occurred in a significant ceiling. A lockdown does not necessarily lead to massive wealth transfer to big companies, and an immediate crash. This chart below shows that the Swan came as an LPSY phenomenon, in the short-term recession no-one remembers. DJI*(modified-yields) vs DJI So in a sense, long-term charts prove that there was not much room above when the Swan occured. And the short-term chart proves that the event occurred at the absolute last moment , when there was no "supply" left (LPSY). The crash was so fast because there was not much volume left in circulation. So the sell-off was quick. The recovery was immediate because the 2020 Swan by itself didn't create structural issues in the economy. Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. -Father Grigori PS. I could get my account banned for spreading conspiracy and misinformation. I really don't care.
TVC:DJI
by akikostas
4
SPX | The Big OneThe Big One. The big question. Buy or sell? A question is easy. An answer can be hard. Most of us here trade because we believe we have a grasp on the answers. And we have several methods on our toolkit to reach a conclusion. One of these methods is belief . That's what we gamble upon. Belief on indices, stocks, ETFs, currencies is what makes us buy them and sell them. Belief aka. Psychology/Humanity Another one is instinct . You know, the thing that we follow when we are completely lost in a mountain path. Instinct aka. Survival A final one is persuasion . The well and tested kind of making an answer out of nothing. It's what politicians have to use, lawyers and figures like Elon. Our friend who, in two separate days in 2022, posted about both the next recession, and the next bubble. Constructive Argument aka. Business Perhaps we can add to these science. But in the end, science unfortunately tends to get mixed up with all of the above three. But science can be much more than that. A scientist must admit that they cannot give definite answers to anything. So for me to come out and give you definite explanations would be business. To answer where SPX can go, we must first orient ourselves. Remember, we are gambling on a mountain with Musk. So this is SPX, and I let an algorithm draw a channel around it. And this is SPX again, but this time I let a monkey draw a line. Humans tend to stop being humans, and let algorithms draw channels for them like the first one. And if you look closely at the second chart, It resembles the main chart. I basically took the SPX price, calculated its trend, and custom plotted the deviation from its trend. It is "safe" to assume that we are below one of the infinite trends. And here comes the dilemma. So where are we? Above trend like the regression told us, or below trend like the mountain monkey said? Elon, being a gambler, told both. So there must be a way out of this conundrum. Until Musks satellites can give us reception in the forest, no help can come. We must resolve this situation the hard way. Even if SPX is going faster than the log-regression tells us, it loses against Bitcoin. But what can that mean? More questions! SPX is comprised of the largest 500 companies. And they are LARGE. The Big Questions are for the Big Companies. And these guys are high stakes poker players, they don't mess around. It is safe to assume that besides being participants, they are the masters of investing. And of course they follow current investing methods like the Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT). So where am I going with all of this? BlackRock is proposing making the first Bitcoin ETF. So for the first time since its creation, Bitcoin can be a tool of MPT. We can assume that if such a proposal comes to fruition, big players can enjoy the benefits of crypto for the future growth of their companies valuation. In the end, the answer is a question by itself. Which came first, the chicken or the egg? Bitcoin is an instrument of Big Tech. Will the creation consume its creator? Or will Bitcoin be sacrificed for the greater good? Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. -Father Grigori
SP:SPX
by akikostas
9
Dirty BusinessYesterday I threw away all the indicators I have been using. A lot of dirt has cluttered my screen for too long. I have also made many custom ones, I threw them out too. But I kept just one, a moving average. Every* indicator refers to price after all. In the end, price discounts everything. No price indicator can tell us something price doesn't tell. The sayings of price are hard to understand. That is why most of us use indicators to clear the picture. *Well there are indicators that measure stuff that is not directly embedded into price action like volume, inflation etc. RSI is the most used indicator for like, ever... The same story, told by different indicators. I have heard that the best analysts use very few indicators on their charts. Volume and candle pattern/trend analysis is hardcore. These are some of the very few instruments of an experienced analyst. Indicators are there to help us get some perspective on how prices work. Many of them must be thrown away when an analyst is experienced enough. Clear information is power. But all of that, I didn't know all of this time. After abandoning RSI I sought other methods of analysis. Stochastic RSI and KST prove powerful methods of momentum analysis. In the end, most indicators refer closely to the original price action. It is just the perspective that changes. So what does trend analysis tell us about equities right now? I am purposefully hiding price action. Annoyingly simple. Final chart, Bitcoin: I will keep using a Keltner-ish Channel since it provides a pure, automatic way to get a feel of how far above or below trend we are. Clean up.
SP:SPX
by akikostas
12
Equity SpringThe Bear Extermination mission is now complete. There are no bears alive to tell the story. Last winter will be written in the history books. But remember, history is written by the winners. After all the Bears got trapped, we are left with a market full of neutrals and bulls. The most extremist of bears are gone. Negligible now the effect of the baby bears. Spring season greets the only ones left alive. Last year Bears got scammed. Panic ensued when equities began dropping rapidly. Little did they know, that what they lost in Equity value, they gained in Dollar value. Investors' sentiment can easily get played. And it can easily be measured. The incredible thing about the chart above, the Equity Put Call Ratio, is that it proves the overwhelmingly negative sentiment that exists now. Everyone "braces for impact", volatility is reaching incredible lows because nobody trades, expecting the crash to come any day now. Low volatility doesn't necessarily lead to higher volatility. Spring is the best season for traders. It may very well have come and passed, and we haven't realized it. Equities have indeed slowed down. But perhaps they are now moving as slow as it gets. It is certain however that many more springs will come and go... A trader must be wise, and adapt in the new balances. One used to profit indefinitely from the perfect equity-bond investment strategy. Now this does not work. Bonds will get bust! And money will flow out of bonds and seek other shelter. Now one can get rich just by holding onto fiat currency. Gold "currency" is fighting for survival... While crypto is beating most kinds of investments. It seems that money is flowing out of Bonds and Gold, and into Equities and Energy. The message is clearly written. Either you find the truth by yourself, or you listen to what others have to say. Just make sure to listen to the right voice. May the truth be your guidance, not wealth. Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. -Father Grigori P.S. There are two ways to become wealthy. Theft and inheritance. Aristotle Onassis, Billionaire. P.S.2. Buffett longs oil.
TVC:NDQ
by akikostas
7
nasdaq 🌊Greetings, A mirror to my tableau painted for Bitcoin, I surmise that the Nasdaq is engaged in the theatrical rendition of a cycle degree fourth wave. Historically, these fourth waves are prone to a tactical withdrawal into the realm of the prior degree wave four territory. In this distinct instance, the territory in question lurks in close proximity to the abysmal pits of the pandemic nadir. A bullish harbinger would manifest should the Nasdaq maintain an altitude above these pandemic depths for the duration of this bear market. If such a trend is confirmed, i will dare to anticipate an audacious ascent to the lofty summit of $30,000 as we voyage through the decade towards the 2030 agi revolution. --- w4 - $8,100 w5 - $30,000 ☿
NASDAQ:IXICLong
by amethystphantom